franz wagner is skinny mitch

If the last couple games are any indication, Franz Wagner has taken The Leap. This week's Basketbullets looks into his breakout last few games in great detail. Enjoy.

The Franzening Part I: The Defense

paint presence [Campredon]

Brian has already covered how Juwan Howard's offense-destroying strategy on Sunday night centered on Franz Wagner, not Hunter Dickinson, guarding Northwestern center Pete Nance, the 6'10" hub of their five-out offense. Once Howard got the pick-and-roll coverage right (it took three minutes, he's pretty good at this), Nance all but disappeared, scoring one basket after the opening four minutes with one assist and three turnovers.

Wagner erased Nance, snatched Miller Kopp's soul on multiple occasions, played sound all-around defense, and was the biggest factor in holding NW to their worst offensive performance of the season. He's growing into a two-end terror. To set the tone directly out of that first media timeout, he made a great pick-and-roll read to slide in front of a slipping Nance and steal an entry pass:

He's posting a steal rate above 2% for the second straight year; he's currently 20th in the Big Ten in that stat even though Michigan's defense focuses way more on contesting shots and avoiding fouls than trying to swipe the ball. A lot of that is because Wagner is simply too lanky not to get his hands on passes. His length is also causes trouble when he's the primary defender. This total shutdown of Miller Kopp wasn't recorded as a steal:

After flashing some shot-blocking ability as a freshman, Wagner is up to eighth in the Big Ten in block rate after his five-block night against the Wildcats. He's the rare inside-outside blocker. This is a beautiful weakside help stuff on NW's backup center:

Wagner helps off of Young after a seamless switch on this play, then steps out to block a pull-up jumper by Kopp, who's 6'7:

This block on Ty Berry is pure one-on-one dominance as he navigates an off-ball screen, stays with Berry through a pump-fake, and swats away a three so he can still collect the rebound:

Wagner isn't just making flashy plays. These are coming within the flow of the play. He's been nearly as productive on the defensive boards as Dickinson as a result. Wagner stays disciplined, doesn't try for unlikely blocks, and can go out of his area to pull in rebounds—an important part of his game when Dickinson is required to help at the rim:

The discipline also shows up in his defensive charting stats. Here's how opponents shoot when Wagner is the primary defender, according to Synergy, which unfortunately doesn't give me an option to flip the colors—red is good for Wagner and bad for the shooter:

34.5% around the rim! 8-for-24 on midrange shots! As for three-pointers, that good opponent mark (10-for-26) feels like bad luck outside of some early-season communication issues, and Wagner's doing a good job of dissuading those shots from going up at all. Synergy only hits him with responsibility for three unguarded jump shots all season and he's grading out "poorly" by allowing 4 of 11 guarded jumpers to go down.

He's shutting down either end of the pick-and-roll he's put in; ballhandlers are 4-for-19 with two turnovers against him and roll men are 1-for-5. He still seems to be getting better by the game. Meanwhile...

[Hit THE JUMP for oh right the offense is clicking too.]

14-10-5-2-5.

That's not a software key code or the combination to my bike lock. It's tonight's stat line for Franz Wagner: 14 points (on 12 shooting possessions), ten rebounds, five assists, two steals, and five blocks. He did all that in only 29 minutes, not because of foul trouble, but because Michigan (9-0, 4-0 Big Ten) beat the hell out of a Northwestern (6-3, 3-2) team that posed some seemingly difficult strategic problems for the Wolverines to solve.

The 85-66 final score doesn't reflect the beating. Michigan was up 14 at halftime and spent most of the second half with their lead in the mid-to-high 20s; the margin was 28 when they emptied the bench at the under-4 media timeout.

The game looked competitive for about five minutes. Juwan Howard solved the puzzle of how to defend stretch five Pete Nance with the bigger, slower Hunter Dickinson by not guarding Nance with Dickinson at all, instead using Wagner and Isaiah Livers to guard the central hub of Northwestern's five-out offense while sticking Dickinson on more limited power forward Robbie Beran. Nance scored eight quick points and Beran added another bucket after blowing by Dickinson off the dribble. Michigan, meanwhile, couldn't stop passing the ball out of bounds.

survey and destroy [Campredon]

It all clicked in a hurry. The WIldcats sent a hard double-team at Dickinson, whose signature pinpoint skip pass began a lovely passing sequence capped by a Wagner three-pointer. Michigan ripped off a 10-2 run over the next 2:40. After missing their first three attempts from beyond the arc, the Wolverines rained in nine of their next 14 to finish the half as Dickinson bent the defense out of shape with his behemoth presence and skillful passing.

Eli Brooks drilled three of four from downtown in the first half; Wagner and Chaundee Brown each added a pair on their way to ten first-half points. Brown was coming off a scoreless 21-minute outing at Maryland. Dickinson only had four points and (somehow) zero assists at the break but the ball always found the open man created by the extra attention directed the center's way; M tallied 12 assists on 17 first-half field goals.

Nance, meanwhile, scored two points after his initial outburst—not just in the half, but for the rest of the game. Howard stuck to the plan to great effect as Michigan's combination of length and athleticism shut seemingly every option down. NU's leading scorer, Miller Kopp, needed 14 shots to score 13 points—four of them after M was up 29 late—as he was hounded by Wagner and Livers. Wagner even blocked one of Kopp's pull-up jumpers. Boo Buie, one of four Wildcats to average double figures, did not score all night.

THUNDER ELI [Campredon]

The onslaught continued in the second half with Dickinson looking for his own shot more often. He finished with 19 points on 14 shooting possessions in 27 minutes; he went 6/8 for 15 points in only ten second-half minutes. The rest of the team could mostly focus on entry passes and off-ball cuts; Brooks finished off one of the latter with a massive dunk for the second straight game, sending the bench into hysterics. The starters would return the bench mob favor later when Jace Howard scored his first career basket on a tough and-one finish.

Northwestern's night can be summed up in two sequences. Beran, who fouled out with a team-high 14 points, had stared down a pursuing Livers after a fast break dunk early in the second half; when Livers got isolated on Beran later on, he cleared out his side of the court, gave Beran a few hard backdown dribbles, and then faded away for a shot that hit nothing but net. Not long thereafter, Buie drove to the rim and attempted to finish over a walled-up Brandon Johns, yelling "and-one" on the release; the ball missed everything, no foul call came, and Johns hit a three on the other end.

Even if NU is a paper wildcat, Michigan played like a powerhouse tonight. Their standing as one of four remaining unbeaten teams in the country looks more impressive with passing day as the rest of the Big Ten tears each other to pieces. Dickinson looks like an All-American; Wagner is starting to play on at least an all-conference level. This is a top-ten team until further notice.

[Hit THE JUMP for more pictures and the box score.]

Previously: Preseason Hoops Mailbag, The Story, Big Ten Roundtable Parts One and Two, Schedule Release, Guards, Wings, Bigs, Season Preview Podcast

The season starts in mere minutes, so let's get right to it.

Who's Going to Start?

I'm going to preface the answer to my own question by saying the closing lineup and overall minutes distribution may end up mattering a lot more than the starting lineup. I could see, for example, Juwan Howard wanting to start a traditional center but playing small-ball to close games because that emerges as his best group. The difference between some rotation players is small enough that we could see starting lineup changes based on matchup. There's a lot on the table.

Instead of taking one stab at this, I'm going to run down a few options and list the positives/negatives of each. For the sake of keeping things simple and also because I believe this is how it'll shake out, I have Hunter Dickinson ahead of Austin Davis as the top traditional center option.

Mike Smith - Chaundee Brown - Franz Wagner - Isaiah Livers - Hunter Dickinson

Positives: Smith gives the team added scoring punch and a second pick-and-roll ballhandler to complement Wagner. The three wings are all switchable defenders. Dickinson's size is going to give a lot of defenders problems and he's got some potential as a pick-and-pop big.

Negatives: The defense with this group probably won't be elite between having the diminutive Ivy League transfer at the point and a freshman center who isn't the most mobile player. If Smith isn't a Big Ten-quality pick-and-roll ballhandler, a lot falls on Wagner's shoulders. Have to play drop pick-and-roll coverage with Dickinson.

[Hit THE JUMP for more lineup combos and more questions.]