chop robinson

Previously: PSU Offense 

In comparison to the Penn State offense, the defense that we will cover today is fearsome. They are 4th in SP+ defense and have held opponents to just 11.89 points per game this season, third best in the NCAA. Star players with NFL interest are apparent across the depth chart. How scared should we be?

The Film: Like every B1G team, Penn State has mostly faced garbage offenses, limiting our options here. The best three choices are Maryland, West Virginia, and Ohio State, one of which is a vastly better offense than the others. The Buckeye offense may not be as good as it once was, but they are still by far the best offense of those three, so like in the previous piece, we're rolling with the OSU-PSU tape. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

Much of the success for the PSU defense this season has come from the dominant play of its defensive line, especially at the EDGE position, where the production has largely been sterling. Hype has been given most prominently to Chop Robinson, the fearsome passrusher with 1st round NFL Draft attention. Robinson got hurt against OSU but may be set to return this weekend against Michigan. The Nittanys haven't been much worse off without Robinson thanks to the development of EDGE defenders Dani Dennis-Sutton, a former 5*, and Adisa Isaac, a 5th year player who I previously didn't think much of but who has made a nice leap this season. Against all non-OSU teams, these three players have feasted and wrecked OL after OL. They met more of a challenge in the Shoe, but still had some success. 

The defensive tackle spot was a bit of a relative weakness last season for Penn State, which I think is still probably true but they have had one player emerge in Zane Durant. He's a star in my and PFF's view, the first at that position for PSU since PJ Mustipher years ago. The other players next to Durant are just guys and potential vulnerabilities, Hakeem Beamon, Dvon Ellies, and (especially) Coziah Izzard, the lone player to get a cyan on our diagram. Ohio State did have some success running up the middle against some of these players and we will dig into that as we go. 

PSU usually plays in a 4-2-5, meaning there are two traditional ILBs, but sometimes they do slink into a 4-3. Curtis Jacobs and Abdul Carter are the starters, rock solid players but a little below star caliber to me. Carter is the better pass-rusher of the two, used often as a blitzer by DC Manny Diaz, while Jacobs also rushes a decent amount. Tackling and coverage dock them a bit and keep them below getting the star, but I like both players. Neither backup is bad either, Tyler Elsdon and Kobe King. King is the much more used backup and can slide in seamlessly without much notice. 

At corner, the performance of the much hyped Kalen King is something that will be discussed in this piece. I was incredibly high on King coming into the season, but he has put up lackluster PFF grades and to put it plainly, he was terrible against Ohio State. His shield has been taken away, though he is still in the first round of some NFL mock drafts. The corner opposite King, replacing Joey Porter Jr., is Johnny Dixon and he's been excellent this season. The same could be said for nickel Daequan Hardy. Both Hardy and Dixon showed out against Ohio State and earned my respect. PSU rides the three starters hard at corner, but Cam Miller is the next man up at the position. 

The safeties are SS Jaylen Reed (not to be confused with the ex-MSU WR Jayden Reed) and at FS either Keaton Ellis or Kevin Winston Jr.. All of these players have been pretty good this year, a bit below star caliber but certainly not a weak spot. Zakee Wheatley is the fourth safety and he's in the same bucket in terms of performance. Safety is not the strength of the defense, but far from a weak spot. There aren't too many of those on this unit. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: they defend]

Previously: Quarterback, Running Back, Receivers, Offensive Line

The Enemy, Ranked now shifts to the defensive side of the ball as we break down Michigan's opponents for the 2023 season. Today we start in the trenches, looking at the opposing defensive lines. While perhaps not quite as grim as offensive line, I can't say I came away from this exercise terribly enthused by the opposing defensive lines. Yet again you can partly chalk that up to the schedule, avoiding Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa, but I also am not sure how great of a year for the B1G on the DL this is in general. Regardless, let's get going: 

12. Bowling Green 

Today we start off with a tight battle for the bottom of the list between BGSU and the team just ahead of them, but I ultimately opted to go with the Falcons in 12th place. Bowling Green's DL last season was a solid group, emerging as one of the strengths of the defense, but now they lose three of four starters and are in for a bit of a rebuild. To make matters worse, Anthony Hawkins, the one returning starter, graded out pretty poorly in PFF's data. We should note that it's not all bad though. DT Dontez Brown and JACK Demetrius Hardamon, who are now leveling up to the starter role, were rotational pieces last season, each logging >250 snaps. They aren't completely inexperienced and both charted pretty well in their appearances.

The other EDGE spot is pretty murky though. I listed Jordan Porter as the starter since he has played the most at Bowling Green, but it could easily be one-time Minnesota transfer Ali Saad or UTSA transfer Chace Davis. Those three are all pretty inexperienced and haven't done much when they've played. As a whole, this defensive line is not in a terrible position for a Gof5 unit, but it's not in a good spot either, with three new starters, multiple players taking on elevated roles, and no proven impact starters. They're not far off from being #11 but I narrowly opted to put them here. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: more defensive lines]

Previously: PSU Offense 

For the second time in three weeks, the Michigan Wolverines are set to play an elite defense. Penn State comes into this game ranked 6th in SP+ defense with an impressive track record so far. After allowing 31 points to Purdue in week one, Penn State has held the opposition to under 15 points in four straight games. Like last year, the Nittany Lions have impact players at all levels of the defense and plenty of talent to test the Michigan offense and determine whether the Maize & Blue are truly top ten caliber. 

The Film: As I established in the offense piece, Penn State has played only two comparable opponents, the Boilermakers in week one and Auburn in week three. Purdue is closer team to Michigan based on quality of offense but by style of offense, the scale tips more towards Auburn. Purdue struggles mightily to run the football which is pretty opposite of Michigan, whereas Auburn has a more well-rounded offense overall, despite their low level of play. That led me to choose the Tigers, though you will see in the clips that Auburn has many problems on offense and I borrowed Purdue tape for the Dangerman section. 

Personnel: Click the chart for big or here for PDF. 

Penn State has a lot of rotation going on with their defensive personnel. On the defensive line, SDE Adisa Isaac and NT PJ Mustipher are the players who play most downs, while the DT and WDE spots rotate. Mustipher is back healthy after his injury last season that caused him to miss the 2021 Michigan-PSU game and is still a rock-solid nose tackle. The DT spot next to him sees a rotation between several players, including Dvon Ellies (primarily on rushing downs) and Hakeem Beamon (primarily on passing downs). Coziah Izzard is also in the mix at both positions, having gotten some run last season as one of Mustipher's lackluster replacements. The WDE spot has some standard down vs. passing down rotation, with Nick Tarburton being the pick for the former while Maryland transfer Demeioun "Chop" Robinson is the pass-rushing edge. Amin Vanover also is on the two-deep at DE. 

Curtis Jacobs was last year's SAM, moving over to MIKE after the exit of Brandon Smith and Ellis Brooks. He's an every-down player while Tyler Elsdon is the rotational starter at WILL. Abdul Carter played a lot in Elsdon's place against Auburn, with Kobe King spelling Jacobs from time to time at MIKE. Last season PSU rolled with three traditional LBs a decent amount but this season they've transitioned the third LB spot into being more of a space-backer spot, which is held by converted safety Jonathan Sutherland. He can line up as a DB in coverage or in the box more like a LB. 

The corner position lost forever starter Tariq Castro-Fields but returned Joey Porter Jr., who was already a promising player last year but has made the proverbial leap over the offseason. He is this week's dangerman. Kalen King is the new starter opposite Porter and has gotten off to a phenomenal start to the season. PSU loads up on corners on 3rd & long snaps so there are plenty of other players in the mix. South Carolina transfer Johnny Dixon is one of them, as is Marquis Wilson, and nickel Daequan Hardy, who has been a weak link. 

PSU took a massive hit in the offseason when they lost star S Jaquan Brisker and haven't quite landed on a full-time replacement yet. Thankfully, the other spot sees a starter return, FS Ji'Ayir Brown, who is a fine player and came close to getting a star. The SS position vacated by Brisker is nominally held by Keaton Ellis, but Jaylen Reed and Zakee Wheatley have rotated in plenty at both safety positions. PSU played with 6 or 7 DBs on several snaps against Auburn and with the amount of garbage time they've had so far, snap counts are higher for many players on this defense and rather evenly distributed overall.

[Hit THE JUMP for the breakdown]