channing stribling is part of our reality

Cloning was the answer. [Bryan Fuller]

Our ongoing series covering Michigan's 2010s. Previously: Our Favorite Blocks, QBs, RBs, and WRs, TEs, FBs, and OL, Defensive Line, Linebacker, The 2000s.

Methodology: Going by individual years but only one per player can be nominated. We discussed them and decided together, then split the writeups. There will be a special teams and then we're taking requests on offbeat editions to fill the long offseason.

SAFETY: Jordan Kovacs (2011)

Blessed Order of St. Kovacs

Today, even after Michigan has exhausted the eligibility of an entire generation of Glasgows, we call the walk-ons who emerge into draftable players members of the "Blessed Order of St. Kovacs." Secondaries of the rest of the decade would be filled with top-100 types whose natural abilities contributed to top-five defenses. But to get there first Michigan had to survive Never Forget plus three years of Rich Rod and Tony Gibson.

In 2009 I made a sad depth chart to introduce a series—The Decimated Defense—about the recruiting and attrition that led us to the program's defensive back nadir. On said depth chart, all walk-ons, including a redshirt freshman student body one that then-DC Greg Robinson had recently mistook for Matt Cavanaugh, were represented by suicidal cats.

Corner Safety Safety Corner
NFL-ready junior guy (Donovan Warren)

(Jordan_Kovacs)

Current Infinite Safety Disaster, who is worse than the walk-on (Michael Williams) Legacy who is halfway decent and was our FS until a few weeks ago (Troy Woolfolk)
Dust mite true freshman who was a running back until a few weeks ago (Teric Jones)

(Floyd_Simmons)

True freshman recovering from knee surgery who can't be that great if he hasn't seen the field (Vladimir Emilien) Redshirt freshman with clear talent deficiency to be serviceable (JT Floyd)

Cats were all the rage on the internet back then, as was abject failure in Michigan's secondary. Many players who might have helped plug the holes abandoned Michigan. We even had a banner.

image

But then a funny thing happened that we did not expect. In 2011 Michigan was suddenly getting impact safety play from the unlikeliest of creatures: a Hobbit.

And then there's Kovacs. That is a record-shattering performance for a member of Michigan's secondary and it is absolutely deserved. Kovacs led the team in tackles, only half-missing a couple of those. He led ballcarriers into other defenders, which is why Western had to go on long marches—they couldn't bust it past Kovacs. He annihilated Carder on two sacks, one of which produced a game-sealing fumble. While Mattison got him those runs at the QB, his execution was flawless. On the first, he had the agility to slash back inside of Herron and the technique to put his helmet directly on the ball. And he added two PBUs for good measure.

His Kovacsian limitations made him not the guy you want carrying a future NFL slot receiver down the seam—particularly in 2012 when they slapped a Legends jersey on him to honor three historic linemen and Mattison tried to get away with some Ed Reed crap. But even in 2010 Kovacs thrived as a two-high box safety who could come down and play a Viper-like role, and in 2011's patchwork secondary those edge blitzes were a feature.

Also a feature: busts in the front seven that never, ever, ever, ever led to a gain of 40 yards. Remember this was a defense playing high-risk up front because the serviceable depth chart was guys Lloyd Carr recruited and Jake Ryan. After the afore mentioned WMU game Mattison was asked if having a guy like Kovacs allowed him to do more with the defense. Answer: "Well… he allows you to call it without wincing."

This was the Kovacs you had to be a bit of a wonk to fully appreciate, but over the course of 2011 the Kovacs who was ALWAYS THERE when that guy was supposed to arrive was the main thing giving viewers a sense of peace they hadn't felt since the days of…Jamar Adams? Marcus Ray? Tripp? When an option pitch went outside the last defender on the screen, it was Kovacs who appeared, already at top speed, at the perfect angle to end it at the sideline. When a linebacker went the wrong direction on a stretch run and you braced for a long chase, Kovacs came. He was our binky.

We could go with 2011 or 2012; we chose '11 only because there was more Alex Carder annihilation, and because that's the year, at the moment everything was about to fall apart, it didn't, because Kovacs was always there.

-Seth

[After THE JUMP: The Old, the Boring, and the Cat-like]

[Lead image: Bryan Fuller]

REMINDER: Hail to the Victors 2018 is nearly done. Get your orders in! Also of extremely less significance: don’t forget your daily CFB Risk marching orders—daily MVPs still get 200 MGoPoints you can spend everywhere MGoPoints are accepted.

Previously:

This week: Previously we did the five-stars so “Only recruiting rankings matter!” guy can send that to his three-star-loving pal. Now it’s “Recruiting rankings don’t matter!” guy’s turn to forward a link that proves nothing except we’re short on #content in the offseason. Also it’s badly named because I’m including 2-stars. Also also it’s going to be more focused on their recruiting stories since you probably know enough about their Michigan careers.

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Rules: There are two ways to make an all-under-recruited list: a) the best of all those who qualified, or b) performance relative to recruiting rankings. I think b) is more fun, but you end up leaving off too-obvious candidates. I’m going with a combination of both: best eligible player for how I construct my team, but if it’s close the lower-ranked recruit gets in.

Also it’s by college production, not NFL.

Cutoff Point: Had to be less than a 3.9-star based on my composite recruiting database—which goes back to 1990—who earned a scholarship. For reference that means Carlo Kemp is eligible and Jibreel Black is not. To avoid guys that one scouting service just ignored we’re leaving out anyone who made a top-250 list for two or more services or anyone’s top-100 (which means Mike Hart is disqualified because HE WASN’T A THREE-STAR except to the two services that left online databases.) Also not doing special teams because they’re always rated 3-stars.

Preemptive Shut Up, Stars Don’t Matter Guy: There were 278 players who fit the criteria in my database, compared to 93 who got any kind of fifth star, so if you’re comparing this team to the team of blue chips remember you have to sing three times as many players to get this level of quality. For reference here are the fates of Michigan recruits 1990-2018 by recruiting ranking:

Rating as Recruit Drafted UDFA No NFL MLB Still playing
2- or 3-star 9% 5% 66% 0% 19%
4-star 20% 9% 51% 0% 20%
5-star 35% 18% 25% 1% 21%

Conclusion: Recruiting rankings matter, but they’re just a guideline

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Quarterback: Tom Brady

Yes I did say this is only based on college production. I admit to being a “Put in Henson” guy, right up until a few games into 1999. Michigan that year had OL problems due to injury and Tom Brady was surviving while Henson was constantly getting driven from the pocket. The MSU game—a loss—sealed it as Brady nearly brought Michigan back from a massive deficit.

As a recruit he was on the borderline between three and four stars. His video is out there too if you want to see what the scouts did, which was a crisp passer with a great feel for the game and tiny chicken legs you’re afraid will snap the first time he’s sacked. USC had first pick of Cali QBs, could get five-star Quincy Woods, and over the strong objections of OC Mike Riley, took local boy John Fox as their second dude even though then-USC head coach was, like Brady, a Serra alum. UCLA took Cade McNown so Brady’s second option was out. Stanford was in the area but chose Chad Hutchinson and Tim Smith, whom Lemming rated just behind Brady.

By then however Brady was a senior and Michigan had had him on campus and made him their first target for 1995 QB. Moeller (Excalibur was a few months in the future) and QB coach Kit Cartright already had a stocked QB room between Scot Loeffler, Jay Riemersma, Brian Griese, and Scott Dreisbach, so they were staying out of the crazy battles over Dan Kendra and Bobby Sablehaus, the #1 and 2 overall players, in the class. Michigan’s other real target was Chad Plummer, who went to Cincy.

Honorable Mention: John Navarre, Brian Griese (who technically walked on but only because his dad offered to pay), Wilton Speight, Scott Dreisbach, Jake Rudock

[After THE JUMP: I post the 313 video again, twice]

HomeSure-Lending_logo_tag

SPONSOR NOTES: Also at the Marlin tailgate I met a guy who had refinanced with Matt and was now hanging out with him pregame, because they're buds. I didn't judge. Maybe I judged a little.

In addition to being a gentleman replete with Michigan tickets, Matt is also a good man to know if you need a mortgage. It's striking that we actually get non-astroturfed comments about positive experiences with Matt not infrequently.

If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

FORMATION NOTES: Michigan spent a lot of time in this formation:

4-3 over press two high

Line is shifted to the TE so that's an over set. Peppers is overhanging the TE. Two deep safeties, press coverage.

They'd also put Peppers inside the end. I called that "4-3 bear".

PERSONNEL NOTES: Wisconsin's manball and constant three and outs caused some shifts in the DL snap distribution. Charlton played every snap—although there were just 53. Wormley and Glasgow were close behind with around 40; Godin and Hurst just about split the other DT spot. Gary (13 snaps), Mone (7), and Winovich(2) rounded out the rotation. Mone's just getting back, obviously; the other two are either freshmen getting their first taste of manball in a game situation or much lighter than alternatives.

The back seven starters never came off the field except for a few dime packages without McCray. Watson(7 snaps) and Kinnel(3) got a little bit of PT on passing downs as extra DBs.

[After THE JUMP: this QB got shook]