bonnie tholl

Well, it's a new season for Michigan Softball. After a disastrous (by the program's standards) season that saw the Wolverines miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time in nearly three decades, the page has been turned and year #2 of the Bonnie Tholl Era is upon us. It's a new team, albeit one with a lot of familiar faces. The season is getting underway at 10am (broadcast for the opener can be found here), so it's time to break Team 47 down and give them a proper introduction: 

The Roster

Pitching 

While the 2023 season represented a steep decline in pitching compared to the 2022 or 2021 teams, it was still a stronger area of the team than the hitting side. The team ERA of 2.91 was not what you want if you hope to be a high level competitor in NCAA Softball, but the good news is total continuity. Everyone is back and they've added through the recruiting class as well. The team's arguable best player is Lauren Derkowski, who went from a depth piece as a freshman to the team's #1 pitcher as a sophomore. Derkowski wasn't quite ready to be a high-major ace, but she is a pretty good pitcher, 2.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.0 K/9. Last year represented a big step forward in her development and if this Michigan team is to get up off the mat, they're going to need Derkowski to take that next step towards ace status. I think it's possible because I believe in Jen Brundage and the development curve for Derkowski has been following a neat schedule. 

Arguably a bigger need than Derkowski taking the next step is shoring up the pitching situation outside of her. Last year's #2 was Jessica LeBeau, a Kent State transfer who was a good but not incredible MAC pitcher and more or less looked like that after up-transferring to the B1G. Bonnie Tholl spoke at media day about getting LeBeau's form and confidence back to where she was in the first half of last season, which is a decent point. LeBeau hung in there against a swath of good and great teams in the non-conference, but then posted basically similar results against much weaker competition in the B1G, when you would have liked to see her bring the ERA down during that portion of the year. Her final two B1G outings, against Indiana and Minnesota, were particularly ugly and helped drive the nail in the coffin on Michigan's season. 

[Bill Rapai]

Getting LeBeau back to a more usable option is a goal for the staff, but I don't particularly think she'll ever have the chops to be an ideal #2. At the very least, Michigan needs to get her some insurance, because last year the depth beyond the 1-2 at the top of the rotation was abhorrent. UNC transfer Hannah George and one-time elite recruit Emerson Aiken contributed nothing out of the pen, as the two combined to allow 23 earned runs and 44 H in 23.2 IP last season. If Michigan had to go to either of those two, it was over and the game went from bad to worse. I don't really know if there's much hope for improvement... theoretically better results are possible given George's past at UNC and Aiken's recruiting profile but we're multiple seasons removed from that now and they drew scant mention at media day. 

More likely is the help comes from true freshman Erin Hoehn, out of Poseyville, IN near Evansville. Hoehn is listed as a two-way player, but she was mentioned in the pitching conversation by Tholl in her press conference as someone who could compete and add to the pitching staff as a true freshman. So, it seems like she'll get her shot. Hoehn was a touted recruit, for what it's worth, a 2023 MaxPreps First Team All-American and 3x Indiana All-State first team honoree. She posted a career 0.79 ERA in high school, so the credentials look good, but tough to know until she competes in the circle in a collegiate game. 

I should round this out by mentioning that Maddie Erickson is listed as a potential pitcher on the roster but we never saw her pitch last season, even while George and Aiken were getting teed-off on in mop up duty. Erickson seems poised to play a larger role in the offense, so at this point, it doesn't appear that she factors in majorly in the pitching equation. But you never know. In a perfect world Derkowski takes a leap forward towards ace territory, LeBeau is a bit better assimilated to B1G softball and is an okay second fiddle, while Hoehn comes in and adds effective innings, allowing her and LeBeau to share the remaining non-Derkowski innings based on matchups and daily effectiveness, limiting the George/Aiken exposure. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: hitters, schedule, big picture]

Sooooooo yeah. The last time I wrote about Michigan Softball was late April, when they had three weekends left in the B1G season. They were still in the field for NCAA Tournament projections at the time and I felt that a solid close to the regular season would likely be enough to get the Wolverines into the tourney. Which, for a rebuilding season, would have been a fine outcome. 

That is emphatically not what happened. Michigan Softball lost an infuriating extra inning game to Northwestern, destroyed the 'Cats on Saturday, and then lost a comedy of errors umpiring show on Sunday. That was an okay result, but everything that followed was a catastrophe, back to back sweeps at the hands of a pair of good B1G teams in Minnesota and Indiana. A 1-8 record over the final nine B1G games plummeted Michigan to 10th in the conference standings, forcing them to need a miracle in the BTT to make it in. They didn't get one, rather a first round exit at the hands of Penn State. 

So here we are, 25-24 and no NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1994. How did it go wrong? What comes next? And what about the longterm viability of Michigan Softball as a meaningful program? We've got some hard questions to answer today. 

How it all went down

Ugly! Oh wait, you want me to tell you more? The abbreviated version in the opening not painful enough? Well, here goes I guess. That first game against Northwestern was where we left off, the chance for Michigan to notch marquee wins in conference against a team that ended up being a regional host seed when the tourney bracket got unveiled. NU is legit and as a whole, it looked like a decent fight. Michigan and Northwestern were tied 2-2 on Friday into extra innings, Michigan getting terrific relief pitching from Jessica Lebeau. They fell down 3-2 in the bottom of the 10th, but a big hit by Audrey LeClair tied the game. The winning run was waved home but was thrown out by a country mile in one of the worst sends from third base I have seen in some time. Alas, Northwestern took a 4-3 lead in the top of the 11th and won the game by that margin. 

It was a bitter loss, but made up for by a stunning 15-0(!!!) shellacking Michigan laid on Northwestern on Saturday. Out of nowhere, a challenged offense had their way with a top notch team and secured a comfortable run rule victory. That led us into Sunday, a game that was tied 0-0 into the 7th amid multiple umpiring errors that jobbed Michigan (in my view). However, you still need to show a pulse outside of getting screwed and the Wolverines didn't do nearly enough with the six hits and two walks they got. Eight baserunners translated into zero runs, while two key base knocks for the Wildcats in the top of the 7th powered them to a 3-0 victory. 

[Bill Rapai]

Despite dropping two of three, Michigan was still on track to make the NCAAs at this juncture. It all began unraveling the following weekend, a sweep at home at the hands of Indiana. IU ain't a bad team, but they're not Northwestern. You needed to take at least 2/3 at home and you got swept. And not just swept, decisively swept. The Friday game got postponed to a Saturday doubleheader, which Indiana swept by a combined score of 19-2(!!). Everything that could go wrong went wrong, a 4-1 defeat that saw Michigan never be competitive on the scoreboard and a 15-1 drubbing in which LeBeau got pummeled and with Lauren Derkowski tired from Game 1, Michigan was forced to turn to its unusable pitching depth, which made things go from bad to worse. On offense, Michigan mustered only nine hits combined in the two games and zero runs against Heather Johnson and Briana Copeland of IU. Of those nine hits, only two were of the extra base variety (both doubles). Pitiful. 

The Sunday game against Indiana was at least more competitive, but it still was far from an acceptable result. The Hoosiers got to Derkowski again and Michigan trailed 5-1 in the bottom of the 3rd before trying to claw back. They cut the lead to 6-5 on an Ella McVey single in the 7th, placing the tying and winning runs on, but an Ellie Sieler flyout ended it. Getting swept up by a team like Indiana put Michigan's tournament hopes into deep jeopardy, setting the stage for a dramatic trip to Minneapolis. In between were two easy run rule wins over WMU and Oakland, but the team went to Minnesota realistically needing a sweep. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: a play that will make you SQUEAL!]

Three weeks have passed since we last checked in on Michigan Baseball and Softball, so it's about time to do another update. The two teams were wading into B1G play during the last one and now are well into the meat of those two campaigns. The needle is pointing slightly upwards for softball after a choppy beginning, while it's pointing sideways or slightly down for baseball (in the near term), but plenty of storylines for both. Today we'll be looking at softball, while tomorrow I'll be covering baseball. These are going to be shorter pieces, but I thought it was a little more user friendly to break them up and spread the content out. 

Softball: Still Meeting Expectations

At the last installment, I noted that Michigan's non-conference portion of the season was rather choppy and its signature wins rather ugly, but that they were doing enough to meet expectations. I said that they were on track to make the NCAA Tournament if they could finish in the upper half of the B1G, since a brutally difficult non-conference and notching just enough quality wins had bolstered their RPI. Since then the team has done basically exactly that, nothing incredible but sticking in that top quartile of the B1G they need to be in. Doin' alright. 

Season results since we last talked: Last update came just before the Nebraska series and the first three B1G series of April have been identical to each other, taking two of three from the Huskers, two of three from Illinois, and two of three from Purdue. Given that Purdue and Illinois are both brutally bad, dropping games to both squads is not what you want to see if your goal was to make a run at Northwestern for the conference crown, but I never considered that terribly realistic in a rebuilding year. If the main goal is to stay in the NCAAs and keep momentum rolling forward as Bonnie Tholl turns over the roster, then three series victories is enough to tick that box. 

The Nebraska series was totally fine, as the Huskers are one of the best non-Northwestern teams in the B1G. I lamented Michigan's lack of offense in my last update and then less than 24 hours later, Michigan bludgeoned Nebraska in a 10-0 run rule. Only one homer in that game (another by Keke Tholl), but the Wolverines churned out 14 hits, which was a very welcome sight. Unfortunately, they got run-ruled by Nebraska in game #2 after a dreadful hitting performance, setting up the rubber match on Sunday, a solid win powered by a Lexie Blair two RBI double, small ball offense, and strong pitching from Lauren Derkowski.

 [Bill Rapai]

After that, the team hosted Illinois, a much lower scoring series and one in line with what we've seen from the team this year. They got shut out by the Illini in game one, Derkowski giving up one in the first and a two run HR in the third, and the offense failing to capitalize on eight different baserunners against Illinois' Sydney Sickels (no idea how she's still in college). The Wolverines responded with a 3-2 win in the Saturday game, a rare homer by anyone other than Tholl doing the damage as freshman Maddie Erickson left the yard with a three run blast. Jessica LeBeau worked in and out of trouble and was relieved by Derkowski, who ran into major problems in the seventh, allowing a two-run double to cut it to one run. She allowed a single, moving the tying runner up to third, but then got a foul pop up to end the game. If that tension wasn't enough, Michigan needed extras to knock off Illinois on Easter Sunday and claim the series, winning 2-1 in the eighth on a walk-off Keke Tholl double. 

The team headed off to East Lansing during the mid-week to take on MSU in a game that was re-scheduled from a week prior. The Spartans are currently last in the B1G, but got a 2-0 lead in the first three innings. A three-run fourth with big knocks from Audrey LeClair and Blair gave Michigan the lead and they'd hang onto it for a 5-2 win. Over the weekend they then headed to West Lafayette to take on the Boilers, the other worst team in the conference besides MSU. Derkowski pitched the first and third games of the series and threw *two* no-hitters, giving Michigan shutout wins 4-0 and 5-0 in the two games. Unfortunately, they dropped the second game by a score of 3-2, a two-run double by Tholl not being enough as Michigan's bats were very quiet. Finally, Michigan took on MSU this past week at home, a comfortable 8-0 run rule victory. No third-straight no hitter for Derkowski but another shut out effort as Michigan moved to 9-5 in B1G play. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The good and the bad]