bo melton

Resources: My charting, RU game notes, RU roster, CFBstats, Last Year

Yep they're still bad. But they sure can recruit running backs.

The film: Their more recent game against BC probably says more about Sitkowski if left in a clean pocket but their 30-0 blasting by Iowa the week before is closer to the level of competition Michigan's defense should present. And it lets us take a peek down the road, which I'd never do of course.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

This is more or less the same group of guys as last year, minus a disappointing left tackle and a decent guard who transferred to an Ohio state university that to my knowledge doesn't have a football program. Texas Tech grad transfer quarterback McLane Carter has been ruled out for a concussion and anyway he was atrocious. That means we're back to Artur Sitkowski, who set some NCAA records last year as a true freshman for quarterback futility. He was a 4-star IMG prospect and looks it at times, but clearly all parties would have preferred to avoid using him this much in this part of his career, and his accuracy is such that I'm not sure the future is that bright either, especially after the licking he's taking.

The big difference now is they've finally recognized the one thing Rutgers is good at: recruiting running backs. RB/Slot Raheem Blackshear (+12/-1, –2 pass pro in my charting) remains on the field as a slot receiver/jet dude when he isn't the running back, and is asked to do all sorts of true receiver things he's pretty good at, and tight end things he's not. That's to get RB Isaih Pacheco (+7/-0, –0 pass pro) starter's minutes. You may remember Pacheco from such bad moments as "that Rutgers running back who outran our entire team one time." Brad Hawkins Apologists like me will be happy to know Pacheco is legit. Thus ends the list of Rutgers offensive personnel who would start on literally any other Big Ten team.

Since it's early in the year a quick reminder of how I do pass protection charting. A –1 is a pass protection that threatens the QB but is survivable, for example if an OT lets a DE around him at 7 yards the QB can still step up in the pocket. A –2 on a play equals death. You can get a –2 on one play if your block is so bad the quarterback has no way to get out of it. I divide this by the non-screen non-RPO pass snaps for a protection percentage. So if you've got two OTs at 90% you're giving up a sack every 10 pass plays.

The offensive line is as ugly as "remove the only half-decent players from the worst OL in the Power 5 and add a year" sounds. LT Raiqwon O'Neal (+2/-1, –7 pass pro) got to spend the day on the business end of star Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa, usually without tight end help. His 68% protection metric is [checks Ulizio] worse than any Michigan OL I've ever calculated this for, though also understandable for a 6'5" redshirt freshman going against a top ten pick. RT Kamaal Seymour (+2/-4, –5 pass pro) didn't face Epenesa, got TE help on almost every pass rush and still graded out at 77% so the trying not to be too mean things I said last year all still apply. All the guys inside had matching 82%s on pass protection, which is quite bad for interior OL but also largely Epenesa-induced. Returning LG Zach Venesky (+1/5/-5, –4) and C Michael Maietti (+1/-5, –4) were also mostly beat up by Iowa's bad DTs too. New RG Nick Krimin (+4/-3, –4) had a few impressive blocks that showed off his strength, earning most of those minuses for two false starts. As a group this line had 28 protection minuses and a 79% protection rating, which translates to giving up a sack on 37% of tries.

For this reason the tight end rarely goes out in a pattern. TE Matt Alaimo (+1.5/-3, –4) has just five pass targets on the season, and is no better than the interior OL. He's also the only option there, with Wisconsin grad transfer Kyle Penniston out indefinitely and their depth just H-back/fullback Brandon Meyers, who at 230 is still trying to grow out of being a running back.

The running backs don't stay in to pass protect either since they're the main receiving targets. Blackshear's numbers (9.4 yards per target, 81% catch rate, 255 yards and 2 TDs) are legit for a receiver, especially considering he has more than twice as many targets (22) as the next guy. The next guy is WR Bo Melton (10.9 YPT, 53% catch rate, 186 yards and a TD), who got bumped outside to keep Blackshear on the field and has been effective on long comebacks but otherwise shut down. Freshman WR Isaiah Washington (4.7 YPT, 36% catch rate, 52 yards) is the recipient of a lot of desperate chucks and throwaways because he's 6'3" and sorta fast. Yes they had a TE last year with the same name—no relation. This guy's just a tall dude who can run in a straight line. WR Mohamed Jabbie spells them, usually at slot. Nobody else gets much run.

[after THE JUMP: content about the Rutgers offense]

Resources: My charting, RU game notes, RU roster, Bill C profile, CFBstats

I thought Chris Ash's first hire at Rutgers made a lot of sense. Coming from Ohio State, Chris Ash had access to Urban Meyer's offensive tree and plucked the nearly ripened slot bug zealot Drew Mehringer to run spread smurf Janarion Grant all over the place. But Mehringer left within a year to be Texas WRs coach, and Ash replaced him with Jerry Kill.

This made some sense. Kill was best known for his Minnesota offenses made out of meatball power-blocking linemen, a 6-5 running back at QB, and motioning slot receivers. Hang some muscle on whatever linemen are around, find a bowling ball for a running back (Rutgers is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the Every RB Rutgers Recruits is Good rule) and convince a tight end prospect he doesn't really have to give up QB, and the spread smurfs of the Northeast can fill in the blanks. But of course Kill couldn't last, nor make Gio Rescigno into a halfway competent FBS quarterback except for one slot fade against Tyree Kinnel that one time.

John McNulty? Uh… He's a… Well he's a former Penn State guy who cut his teeth as a Gary Moeller receivers GA at Michigan. He's spent the better part of his career as a WR (occasionally QBs) coach in the NFL. Really this 1990s pro-style offensive coach makes exactly one kind of sense: He was Schiano's OC at Rutgers.

The film: Maybe the most recent game against Wisconsin would be a better example of what they'd look like against Michigan, except Tom Allen's defense is better and more like Don Brown's. So: INDIANA! Also this is the only opponent they've faced since Texas State in which the Bill C postgame win expectancy (35% in this game) or the percentile performance (23%) for the offense climbed over 15%. Is that Michigan's next opponent? I didn't realize. One game at a time.

Personnel: So here's a good week to remind everyone that Foe Film is an exercise in relativity—dangermen and trouble spots are somewhat relative to the rest of the team. Anyway my diagram:

PDF Version, larger version (or click the image)

McNulty doesn't have much to work with, which isn't that surprising considering he's the ninth OC in the last nine years at Rutger (and the only two-termer). The closest thing to a top-250 composite player on the field is former Michigan target (and Ahmir Mitchell teammate) WR Bo Melton, who was 252nd and had even a Rutger-relative dangerman star far just out of his grasp like half the passes thrown his way. The rest of the receivers are freshmen collecting 5 yards per target or less. WR Shameen Jones is only object that at all resembles an outside receiver, and his 34% catch rate and 4.4 YPT could stand in for the whole team's downfield success rate. True freshman WR Eddie Lewis has better stats but 111 of his 173 yards came against Texas State, Kansas, Buffalo, and Illinois. The only consistent targets are the star running back, who doubles as a slot receiver, and senior TE Jerome Washington.

That running back though. RB/Slot Raheem Blackshear is the Rutger offense. Since he's tiny, returns kicks, and runs all over the field, grad transfer backup RB Jonathan Hilliman gets a lot of run, especially near the goal line. Hilliman had 2,000 yards as the plowhorse for Boston College before a certain Michigan decommit usurped his job. Third RB gets as many carries as #2; true freshman QB convert ATH Isaih Pacheco is a Chris Evans type right down to the listed weight that seems 15 pounds too high.

True freshman QB Artur Sitkowski started last year for IMG so he's more polished than your usual 18-year-old, but that's Rutger-relative: the guy has already thrown 15 picks this year and given how many balls he flung at defenders in this one he's insanely lucky that's not 20.

He's also standing behind that awful offensive line. Light-footed LT Tariq Cole is closer to a cyan than the NFL prospect PFF made him out to be a few years ago. RT Kamaal Seymour is still a some-run no-pass pro problem they're stuck with. Ditto C Michael Maietti, who's no better at line calls this year. RG Jonah Jackson is the only guy the Rutgers beat has any confidence in, and that confidence disappears after they're done talking about his run blocking.

The other guard spot has been a disaster. LG Mike Lonsdorf is a good enough guess if you're trying to peg the worst starter on a Power 5 team this year. Despite getting pulled all the time, DORF is unkillable due to the state of his backups. Top-150 sophomore Micah Clark is taking a redshirt after failing to solve the Seymour problem last year, preseason competition Sam Vretman is out for the season, and the starting career of Nick Krimin lasted one week in September. This week Rutgers will try OL Zach Venesky, who's fresh off getting owned by Wisconsin's DEs (remember them?) DORF is also the only guy they have if a tackle goes out.

[the rest of the breakdown, after THE JUMP]

Haskins: Not a good development [Eric Upchurch]

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The Question:

Last week we did Michigan. So this week we'll do the conference: players, teams, units, coaches.

The Responses:

BiSB: Sigh. Stock Up: Dwayne Haskins. 76% completion percentage, 10.4 YPA, 16 TDs to 1 INT.

Seth: Can we excise Rutgers?

slackbot: I think you mean Rutger

Seth: Because they are extremely stock down.

BiSB: Oh... we'll get to Rutgers. I HAVE MORE TO SAY.

slackbot: I think you mean Rutger

BiSB: But even against TCU, Haskins was 9.1 YPA and 2 TDs on 63% completions.

Seth: Giving Ohio State and Alabama unbeatable quarterbacks is a level of unfairness too detestable to contemplate.

BiSB: The one silver lining is that he's been one-dimensional; he has been almost non-existent in the run game.

David: Stock Up: Buffalo who has spiritually replaced Rutgers in the B10.

slackbot: I think you mean Rutger

David: I do not, Slackbot. I mean Buffalo.

[After THE JUMP: What is Purdue? How do you stop Maryland's offense? Is Penn State secretly meh?]