argh stop hitting all the shots

I'm drained and disappointed. I imagine anyone reading this is, too.

In a slow, ugly game, Michigan missed chance after chance to push past UCLA and into the Final Four. After trailing for most of the second half, the Wolverines twice took the lead, the final time on a Hunter Dickinson free throw with 4:30 to play. They'd stay within a possession for the rest of the game.

They wouldn't make another shot from the field, missing their last eight and getting only a pair of Franz Wagner free throws. Wagner had the cleanest look at a potential game-winner only to airball a wide-open three-pointer following a Michigan timeout with 19.8 seconds left. Eli Brooks tried to put back the miss on the fly with a reverse layup and left it short.

UCLA's Johnny Juzang split a pair of bonus free throws with six seconds left to give Michigan another crack. Smith pulled up and had the space for a good look from beyond the arc but missed the mark. Yet the Wolverines still clung to life when UCLA knocked the ensuing rebound out of bounds with what the officials determined was 0.5 seconds remaining, enough time to catch and fire. Wagner's desperation three at the buzzer never came close.

Michigan is a better team than UCLA, even without Isaiah Livers. Juzang had to be spectacular, pouring in a game-high 28 points—more than a quarter of the game's total—on 11-for-19 field goals with a high degree of difficulty. Michigan got no such performance out of their main players. Hunter Dickinson led the team with only 11 points, and while he made 5/10 shots from the field, he went 1/4 from the free throw line and committed four turnovers. Wagner shot 1/10 in arguably his worst game of the year; the only other candidate is the ugly loss to Illinois. Smith finished 1/7 and didn't record a second-half assist.

UCLA's secondary scoring paled in comparison to that of Michigan, which got quality contributions out of Brandon Johns, Chaundee Brown, and Austin Davis. Juzang's game-long heater and the immense struggles of his opponents' headliners negated that advantage. It's a game of making shots; UCLA's top bucket-getter played at his best while M's sat on the bench in a walking boot. It can be a cruel game.

Johnny Juzang, walking bucket [Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images]

In the light of day, it'll be time to celebrate the accomplishments of a team that was picked to finish seventh in the Big Ten before the season, won the conference, earned a one seed, and came within one shot (or several one shots) of a Final Four in Juwan Howard's first NCAA Tournament as a head coach. This season was an unequivocal success.

Tonight, it's tough to get over the missed shots against a beatable opponent. I was prepared to see Michigan not have enough firepower to keep up with Gonzaga; seeing that come to pass against a UCLA team that had two players score more than four points is more difficult to accept in the immediate aftermath, even if that's the nature of a game that's already produced a wild tournament.

The excitement of a top-ranked incoming recruiting class will be of considerable comfort, too. Howard is just beginning his head coaching career. The program is in as good a place as its ever been. If any program knows there are only so many clean shots at Final Fours and national championships, though, it's Michigan, and it's sad to see this team come so close to adding more banners only for a terrible shooting night to do them in.

[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]

3/1/2020 – Michigan 63, Ohio State 77 – 18-11, 9-9 Big Ten

Perhaps no one in college basketball is more dedicated to the idea of giant humans playing center than Matt Painter. Before Dutch windmill Matt Haarms there was Isaac Haas. Haas looked like Ivan Drago scaled up by 30%. Both of these guys were paired with shorter, thicker dudes—Trevion Williams and Caleb Swanigan—who charge into the lane like the Kool-Aid Man and vacuum up rebounds so quickly they eject little bits of basketball at an appreciable fraction of c. Purdue strives to have the longest and widest centers in college basketball, at the same time.

Look at this guy.

"oops" – this guy

7'3"? Ranking implies that most of the time he gets the basketball he crushes it in his giant hands and then sheepishly hands it back to the ref? Guaranteed Purdue commit.

A few years ago, Matt Painter was introduced to Moe Wagner and about lost his mind. Wagner's ability to stretch the floor set Purdue's defensive approach on fire. Purdue started switching Haas—290 pound Isaac Haas—onto point guards. Switching everything has become a popular defensive approach these days, but usually the folks executing it are mobile, smallish centers like Xavier Tillman. Haas switched onto a point guard looked like a man dumped into a fish tank with a piranha.

After these games Painter would sit down with the media and carefully explain how Moe Wagner is Purdue kryptonite. Even though they won some of these games, the overall impression the Painter-vs-Moe era left was Painter running his hands through his hair, rocking back and forth, moaning "not again, you said never again."

Been thinking about that lately.

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Michigan's February run came to a screeching halt over the last two games because Michigan ran into stretch bigs. Wisconsin's Micah Potter and OSU's Kaleb Wesson are shooting 47% and 43% from three, respectively. They combined to go 7/11 against Michigan.

The effects of those threes extended beyond the shots themselves. Against Wisconsin this was a parade to the bucket from Wisconsin's rim-averse guards; against OSU it was Duane Washington shooting over guys who were playing off him because they knew what happened against Wisconsin. Michigan switched a bunch.

It was awkward. Teske got in foul trouble and Michigan put Austin Davis on the court. Davis, who bodied up Williams effectively just a couple of games ago, was ruthlessly exposed by both teams. Wisconsin shot 75% from two when Davis was on the floor.

Michigan's recent defensive run came against teams with no stretch from their fives. They shot down Cassius Winston by ignoring Xavier Tillman at the three point line, which they could do because he's a 27% shooter out there. Nobody else has a guy who shoots an appreciable number of threes.

So here we are, at another nadir during this season of wild reverses. The Torvik slicers have gone home to stew; dreams of Cleveland have been replaced by a hope that Michigan stays off the 8/9 line. A reminder that this is a team of spare parts stepping up, until such time as they're ruthless elites once again.

I don't know what this season is going to end up as; I do know that I don't want to see another five-out offense this year.

[After the JUMP: this graph is good if you want to ski down it but not if you want to win games]

1/28/2020 – Michigan 79, Nebraska 68 – 12-8, 3-6 Big Ten

You may have noticed that these posts spend an inordinate amount of time talking about Franz Wagner. The slim sections of them not dedicated to complaining about cosmic shooting injustices often linger on Wagner: how is he feeling? How is he doing? Would he like some hot tea? Guten morgen Franz, would you like a newspaper? Newspapers used to be news, on paper, Franz. Yes I don't know why anyone would print that stuff out. I feel like we're losing the thread of the conversation.

Anyway: this game made the reason for this obsession clear. Minus Zavier Simpson, Michigan needed someone to generate shots. John Teske opted out after a little early success when Nebraska's oompa-loompa crew started doubling him; DDJ and Brooks chipped in here and there but Brooks only took two twos and DeJulius only hit one of his five. With Michigan stuck in its usual malaise from behind the arc someone was going to have to hit something on the interior.

That was Franz, who was 7/10 from two with an and-one and one dubious charge call suffered. Many of these were easy finishes:

Michigan | ATO Special

Really like this after timeout call from Howard to get a baseline runner a look from three or attacking a close-out.

Baseline runner --> Pin --> Hand-back --> Flare pic.twitter.com/ARokYtr4BS

— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) January 29, 2020

And that's why we keep talking about Franz. DDJ's only make was a tough floater he took after driving baseline. When DDJ hits something the most common reaction is "wow," because everything DDJ hits is tough. Aside from the occasional cut that catches his defender on a screen, everything Brooks hits inside the line is tough. An earlier edition of this post asserted that Brooks should prefer long twos once he steps inside the line. QED.

Never say never but it is unlikely that either one is able to improve from their current 46% inside the line to anything near good. They're always going to be 5'11" guys who shoot layups on breakaways. Zavier Simpson did it; guys who improve like Simpson are rare. Call me when someone else under six feet tall develops a sky hook.

Wagner is nearly a foot taller than those guys and has crazy gumby arms, so when it goes right it leads to shots that should convert. He missed an early bunny against Illinois, causing everyone to go "argh." But to miss a bunny you've got to make a bunny. Franz creates bunnies. He's already shooting 58% from two despite looking like a stick insect.  There's a path to high volume efficiency there that nobody else currently on the roster has except maybe Johns. Wagner is nearly two years younger than Johns and much more aggressive despite that gap.

Also Franz was 1/5 from three to pull his season average further under 30% and had six turnovers. It can be said that Franz saved Michigan's ass in a game where he had an 89 ORTG. This is the dichotomy of Franz. Dan Dakich exclaimed that "he's a pro" after one swooping layup, because he sure as hell looks like one 36.4% of the time.

The rest of the time… eh, not so much. Wagner is currently high on the list of deceptive highlight guys. You can put together reels in which he looks like a superstar. In fact someone did based on this game:

Franz Wagner
Michigan G 6'8, 205

Wagner continues his strong stretch (18 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST, 3 STL, 1 BLK), making an impact on both ends and leading the Wolverines to a crucial road win.@ProBBallCombine
pic.twitter.com/rqNxVyDF2V

— Jonathan Götting (@j_goetting) January 29, 2020

This is not the reality of Wagner. But it—particularly the floater that is an entirely different kind of shot than floaters from Michigan guards—is why we keep talking about him. Brooks is going to be a version of Brooks down the road. DDJ is going to be a version of DDJ. Wagner could be anything.

[After THE JUMP: miscellania including a 353 ranking]