and i want a pony too
With multiple states in various stages of passing "Pay to Play" laws to force the NCAA to respect the rights of athletes to earn money off of their name and image likenesses, this issue was always going to end up on the federal level. We're there. The top conferences have hired lobbyists who have been meeting with political aides, from whom I imagine the big schools are beginning to understand just much they are not getting the cookies.
Yesterday the AP's Rob Dauster said the Associated Press has obtained a document listing the NCAA's NIL guardrails. I saw a document like this too—a few weeks ago via a senior congressional aide. It's a single-page PDF produced for lobbying purposes that is meant to outline, in more direct terms, the talking points from the NCAA's working group, headed by Ohio State AD Gene Smith, that Brian discussed several weeks ago.
It's a public document, so I figured I might as well share it. The doc (PDF download):
I was also solicited for my thoughts on the nine points outlined, and will share those too. Thank you Richard Hoeg, who is one of our sponsors, for his very helpful input on these. Also to anyone put off by the deviation in tone from my normal style, understand that we are talking about federal legislation, affecting an industry worth billions, and the livelihoods of tens of thousands of current and future participants. This deserves at least a level of seriousness that lobbyists peddling the above put into it, which is to say the level of seriousness of Sesame Street characters performing in Les Miserables gifs.
[My responses to these points, with gifs, after THE JUMP]
The NCAA dropped another document from their name and image rights working group, which spawned the usual round of not-skeptical-enough headlines. These days, a lot of people react owlishly to anything the NCAA does, though, and there was a significant amount of pushback on those headlines. The state of things follows.
1. Public relations comes first
We had Richard Hoeg on to talk about the previous edition of this working group's recommendations. Hoeg's general thrust was that certain weasel words in the list of recommendations looked like outs for the NCAA to change as little as possible while offering the appearance of something real. And repeatedly issuing these recommendations creates wave after wave of headlines about how the NCAA is really listening this time while nothing's happening underneath the hood:
Rep. Donna Shalala (former Miami prez and Wisconsin chancellor) said the NCAA's announcement today was too vague to understand or prompt any real action. "No one comes to Congress with vague ideas."
— Dan Murphy (@DanMurphyESPN) April 29, 2020
The NCAA is aware that their house of cards is in a strong wind and is hoping to present themselves as a trustworthy organization that should be in charge of how it collapses. Thus leading to…
[After THE JUMP: no, not Traveller]
Dylan of UMHoops raised an interesting point on Twitter Wednesday morning:
In Beilein's best season at WVU they played themselves into the tourney going 7-3 to close reg season then made BE final. Just sayin'...
The insinuation, of course, is that it may be possible for this Michigan team to make a similar run to sneak into the NCAA tournament themselves. Although Dylan himself isn't exactly sold on that idea, let's look at what this Michigan team has in common with those Mountaineers.
West Virginia 2005
The Mountaineers, led by Mike Gansey, Tyrone Sally, and Kevin Pittsnogle (pictured at right), finished the regular season with an 18-9 record, 8-8 in the Big East. They won 7 of their final 10 regular season games. In the Big East Tournament, they were the #8 seed, and ran through #9 Providence, #1 Boston College, and #4 Villanova before falling to Syracuse in the tournament final. They were 21-10 going into the NCAA tournament. They were awarded a #7 seed in the West Regional, and managed to make the Elite Eight, where they lost to Louisville in overtime.
Michigan 2010
For the sake of prediction we'll go with Ken Pomeroy's projections over the final five games. Kenpom gives Michigan wins over Penn State, Illinois, and Minnesota at home and road losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.
In that scenario, the Wolverines would finish the regular season with a 16-14 record, 9-9 in the Big Ten. They would have won 6 of their final 10 regular season games. They would be about the #7 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, facing off against #10 Iowa (the same 7/10 matchup as in last season's Big Ten Tournament). To reach the tournament final, they would have to beat Iowa, then the #2 seed (still up in the air at this point, but Ohio State if the season ended today), and the #3 or #6 seed (Purdue or Northwestern, respectively, if the season ended today). Falling in the tournament final, they would finish with a 19-15 record going into tournament selection.
Similarities/Differences
Though both teams would end their season on a run of sorts, the "Last 10" metric for the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is not available this season. Michigan's theoretical 6-4 mark over the final 10 regular season games (plus a 3-1 record in the Big Ten Tournament) probably wouldn't be the most impressive mark, anyway.
A key difference between the teams is their respective overall records. Though both would finish with a .500 mark in conference, the Mountaineers only dropped one game to a non-big East team, though it was a terrible Marshall squad. Michigan, on the other hand, struggled mightily outside the league. They've lost to Marquette, Alabama, Boston College, Utah, and Kansas.
jamiemac of Just Cover and the MGoPodcast points out that a strong close to the regular season would give the Wolverines a similar resume to the 2000 Wisconsin Badgers, who finished the season 16-12, but nabbed an 8-seed based on a strong run to end the year, and ended up making the Final Four. Of course, this Michigan team is almost certainly not Final Four material, but getting into the tournament is possible.
Can it be Done?
Michigan would need to finish the year much stronger than West Virginia did if they want to get into the NCAA Tournament. Like I've been saying for quite some time, the NIT is a much more realistic goal at this point. However, it's actually not impossible for the Wolverines to make the Big Dance. It's just a tall, tall task, especially for a team that has struggled with consistency through the entire year and doesn't seem to be making a final push. Edging by Iowa in overtime does not inspire confidence.
The most obvious way for Michigan to make the NCAA tournament is to win the Big Ten Tournament and get the conference's automatic bid. That requires a hot streak, of course, but the rest of the regular season won't play as big a role (of course, the better the record in the regular season, the higher the seed in the B10 Tourney, and the easier the path to a tournament championship). 3-point shooting teams always have a chance in single-elimination format, as long as they get hot from the field.
Without crunching any numbers, Michigan's only other likely chance to get into the NCAA tournament is to lose only one of the road games left (though a road win over Ohio State or Michigan State is highly unlikely), and make it to the tournament final. That would give them a winning record in the conference, with a 17-13 regular season mark. Adding the 3 victories from the Big Ten tournament would give a 20-14 record, with a number of quality wins at the end of the year. Sweeping the regular season games and making it to the tournament final would make the Wolverines a near-lock for the tournament, at 21-13 and an 11-7 mark in the Big Ten.
HOWEVA, all of these scenarios are pipe dreams. The realistic best-case scenario for the Wolverines is to go 3-2 to close out the regular season, take a victory or two in the Big Ten Tournament, and finish their year with a strong run in the NIT.
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