2023-24 msu #1

In a rivalry that once featured future oodles of first round picks and viable NBA players, the first of two 2023-24 Michigan/Michigan State Men's Basketball matchups went down tonight without any intrigue or pizzaz. A firmly mediocre basketball team played a bad basketball team. The mediocre squad missed shots in the first half while the bad one knocked 'em down, before the better team eventually won out without much fanfare. Little in the way of awesome talent or skill was on display tonight, an unsatisfactory reminder of how far this rivalry has fallen from its 2012-14 era heydays. There's no question, though, that Michigan has fallen much farther, and they were on the losing end of an 81-62 second half rout. 

Michigan headed into Breslin Center tonight to face MSU without PG Dug McDaniel, who missed the third of six away games he will be suspended for, ostensibly so he can sit at home and do homework due to academic issues. The heavily favored Spartans, who have had a choppy season of their own, played from behind most of the first half, as the hot-shooting Wolverines built up an early edge. They shouldered two quick fouls on Olivier Nkamhoua to lead 8-5 at the under 16 media timeout, with Jaelin Llewellyn, playing the PG spot in place of McDaniel, leading the way offensively. Llewellyn hit a three and made a jumper inside to build the lead up to 15-8, and then they got the most unlikely shot of the night, a Tarris Reed Jr. three at the end of the shot clock, which amazingly went down. 

The Wolverines shot the ball well in the early going, not just Llewellyn and that Reed three, but Tray Jackson got involved with a couple buckets off drives to the hoop. Michigan's offense was fighting it a bit with turnovers, but the shots they were putting up were generally going down, as Terrance Williams II and Olivier Nkamhoua both swished two-point jumpers. The lead was 35-28 after a Llewellyn three when MSU made a strong late-half charge, a Malik Hall lay-in off the window, followed by a Llewellyn miss at the other end leading to AJ Hoggard getting fouled. Hoggard strolled to the line for a one-and-one, missed the front end, snatched his own rebound, scored on a layup and was fouled, hitting the FT to complete the three point play. 35-33. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

That was the score at halftime, as Michigan closed the half with a miss from Williams, who was cold from deep again in this one, but a strong defensive sequence by Tray Jackson and Reed preserved the lead on the final possession. Jackson swatted a Hoggard three after dogged defense from Reed on Tyson Walker forced a kick out to Hoggard. Michigan led by two at the break but were doing it on 60.9% shooting from the floor, 5/9 from three. Getting that level of shooting success, yet only leading by a lone bucket, didn't feel great considering the shooting clips screamed "unsustainable". As it turned out, it was unsustainable. 

Michigan's second half lead didn't last long, really nothing more than a blink of an eye. Michigan got the half's first points, a Nimari Burnett triple following a Mady Sissoko missed hook. That put Michigan ahead 38-33 and it was all downhill from there, with the Spartans ripping off an 11-1 run to seize control of the game, control they'd never relinquish. The biggest change in the second-half for MSU was a willingness to attack in transition, a defensive weakness for Michigan in recent games (well, honestly, everything is a defensive weakness these days). The Spartans had few opportunities to run out in transition in the first half, but then started tearing Michigan apart on the break in the second, including an AJ Hoggard layup that helped get the run going. Tyson Walker's fast-break layup gave MSU their first lead of the half and then a corner three from Jaden Akins forced Juwan Howard to call timeout. Both the Walker layup and the Akins three came off Michigan turnovers, as the offense ground to a halt without the ringleader McDaniel to help facilitate it. 

The Wolverines were back on their heels but couldn't find their footing after the timeout. Burnett bricked a three and MSU kept it going, adding a hook shot from Malik Hall and another three from Akins, who was red-hot from deep all night. The lead was now 49-39 MSU and Sparty had made eight consecutive FG attempts at this point. After this point, Michigan began to find some footing on offense, Williams finally making a triple to snap the skid and cut the lead to seven, but the Michigan defense continued to hemorrhage points. The Maize & Blue were never able to consistently get stops as MSU lit them up for 48 points in the second half(!). Without stops, the small offensive gains they made were offset and eventually buried by the unstoppable Spartan offense. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The score remained reasonable, 56-46 MSU, at the under 12 timeout, but before long the lead was up into the teens and high double digits. AJ Hoggard found Tyson Walker on the fast break, who made the layup and was fouled. Even the Michigan makes, like a Llewellyn three not long after, were quickly erased, as Llewellyn's triple was negated by an MSU corner three to restore a 15 point edge. Slowly but surely the lead was built up to an insurmountable margin and as the air of competitiveness slipped away, the Michigan defense got increasingly sloppy. Juwan Howard's attempts at employing a 2-3 zone bore no fruits and one clip that went viral showed Olivlier Nkamhoua making very little effort to close out on yet another Akins three, something that color broadcaster Robbie Hummel noticed (and criticized) live. 

The Michigan offense was also a problem, the hot shooting becoming colder than Antarctica, as Michigan shot 25% from the floor in the second half and they finished with more turnovers than field goals made in the second half(!!). They did score 12 at the free throw line, but on 22 attempts, a dismal 54.5%. Without Dug McDaniel's electric penetration ability, there was no go-to function for the offense. Williams was the most effective scorer, but he made three total field goals on six attempts. Every starter was at least a -16 in the second half and time ticked away on a comfortable MSU win, punctuated by a humiliating ending sequence when Michigan managed to have a ball intercepted on a 4v1 rush down the floor(!!!), which turned into an easy layup for AJ Hoggard, who received the pass from the thief Tre Holloman. Those were the game's final points, making the score 81-62, and the final horn sounded on yet another Michigan defeat. 

Llewellyn, who did most of his damage in the first half, finished the game as Michigan's leading scorer (18 points). Williams added 14, while no one else scored in double figures for Michigan. They shot 42.6% from the field for the game and 40% from three, which is perfectly fine, but 13 turnovers and only 53.8% from the line on reasonably high volume were problems. Without McDaniel, the offense doesn't have the guns to keep up with the opponents, who score at will against Michigan's abominable defense. To that end, MSU finished the game 55.7% from the floor, Akins leading the way with 23 on 7/10 from three(!), followed by Hoggard's 15, Akins and Hall with 12. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Michigan allowed MSU to score at a 1.34 PPP clip, after allowing 1.27, 1.42, and 1.27 the last three games (numbers courtesy of Dylan Burkhardt). Dug McDaniel's suspension has clearly impacted Michigan's offense in road games, but its defense is abhorrent no matter if Dug is available, having collapsed into one of the very worst units in the country among power conference teams. Their defensive rating in KenPom is down to 187th nationally, a truly astonishing figure when you consider that last year's team, even with several clunky defensive pieces and a wing who wanted no part of that end of the floor, managed to still be top 50 defensively. Since defeating St. John's, Michigan has put together the 220th ranked defense in BartTorvik.com's metrics. This is the worst Michigan defense in decades. It's quite hard to be this bad defensively with a high major roster at your disposal.  

I probably could've just said the "worst Michigan team in decades", at the very least since John Beilein's first team over 15 years ago. That this is Juwan Howard's fifth season ought to say all you need to know. Torvik now projects Michigan to finish 10-21, which would match that first Beilein team. If they win only single digit games, we'd have to go back to Bill Frieder's 1981-82 team to find a comparable. Torvik considers Michigan a favorite in just two games the rest of the season, a bad sign when the team has now lost 14 of 18 since starting the season 3-0. And then the cherry on top: with the month of January now over for the squad, we can officially say that Michigan Football won more games than Michigan Men's Basketball in January 2024. 

One of the two games Torvik does see Michigan favored in is Saturday's meeting with Rutgers, the only game that Torvik sees Michigan as a clear favorite in. The Scarlet Knights are 2-6 in conference play, 13th in the league ahead of only Michigan (2-8). Thus, this game could play a big role in determining Big Ten Tournament seeding, particularly who will finish dead-last in the conference. High stakes for early February. That game is scheduled for 4:00 PM EST and will be broadcast on BTN. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#86 Michigan (7-13, 2-7 B10) vs #18 MSU (12-8, 4-5 B10)
WHERE	Breslin Center East Lansing, MI
WHEN	9:00 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: MSU-11 Torvik: MSU-10
TELEVISION	Peacock (link)

THE OVERVIEW

Around the same time they were buckling my daughter into the Zamboni last Saturday, and on the opposite end of the lot, the Michigan men's basketball team was doing its own kind of buckling, welcoming new football coach Sherrone Moore with a double-digit promise not to be a distraction. The 10-point home loss to Iowa undid a 10-point win at Carver-Hawkeye, easily Michigan's best conference victory in the last two years. Michigan's now lost three in a row, and eight of their nine.

At least the one win in there was a rival, but that's about all their next matchup has in common with uncanny shooting night at home versus Ohio State. In contrast to Michigan and most of the conference, MSU's defense has only been improving over the course of the season. Early losses to James Madison and Nebraska are firmly in the rear view mirror. The Spartans are coming off an 81-66 drubbing in the Trohl Center, but Wisconsin is the other Big Ten team that's managed to rise from the dreck, while Michigan's sinking to the bottom of it.

That's not too big of a surprise, considering MSU managed to bring back almost everyone from a team that made it to overtime of the Sweet Sixteen last year. The freshmen who were supposed to provide a boost haven't really done so, but they've got guards coming out of their ears, a pair of seniors in the frontcourt, the Breslin Benefit of the Doubt, and Tom Izzo taking a second stab at his 700th career win. State's rankings are a bit inflated by blowouts against teams ranked closer to 100 than 25, but that's small solace to an incontrovertibly bad Michigan team that will be traveling without Dug.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Tray Jackson returned, but in a very limited role. Coach Howard noted the play of TWIII and Jace Howard at the three spot, not the injury, was the main reason.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Note that MSU's scorer notoriously calls everything an assist, so their real assist rates are actually about 75% of what's reported.

[After THE JUMP: Izzo goes for 700.]