2022-23 purdue

1 hour and 16 minutes

The Sponsors

Thank you to Underground Printing for making this all possible. Rishi and Ryan have been our biggest supporters from the beginning. Check out their wide selection of officially licensed Michigan fan gear at their 3 store locations in Ann Arbor or learn about their custom apparel business at undergroundshirts.com.

Our associate sponsors are: Peak Wealth Management, HomeSure Lending, Ann Arbor Elder Law, Michigan Law Grad, Human Element, The Phil Klein Insurance Group, Venue by 4M where we recorded this, TicketIQ! and The Nose Bleeds, which is the Sklars Bros’ reboot of Cheap Seats on UFC Fight Pass.

1. Hot Takes and Men's Basketball vs Penn State

starts at 1:00

Whatever, SEGMENT ONE HOT TAKES. Shout out to Randy's daughter for getting into Michigan. We then talk about the Penn State game (sorry). Penn State starts hitting everything en route to a 33-6 run, offense can't hit anything for nine minutes. Dug McDaniel is not generating shots for everyone else, neither was Hunter Dickinson in this game. Just hold the ball above your head, you're taller than everyone else! They look like a bad SEC team this year. 

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Michigan Basketball faced the #1 team in the country tonight without one of their two best offensive players in Jett Howard. They were unable to come away with a victory, a brutal stretch in the middle of the first period and not quite enough stops in the second half put the nail in the coffin, but it was still a solid showing considering circumstances. Hunter Dickinson led the Wolverines with 21 points, Kobe Bufkin put up 16 and carried a lot of weight in the second half, and Joey Baker, thrust into the starting lineup, had 11. It was a decent performance, but decent wasn't enough to win in a 75-70 defeat to Purdue. 

The game got off to a hot start, neither team capable of going cold on offense for the first eight or so minutes of action. The score sat at 22 apiece with 11:17 remaining in the first half, the two squads trading bucket after bucket with Michigan going to Dickinson early and often. He started the game off with a triple, made a layup, and then sunk a few free throws, scoring 8 of Michigan's first 13. Bench points started to come through the likes of a Will Tschetter three and a Tarris Reed Jr. dunk, but that score came with a caveat- he was hit with a soft technical foul, his third foul of the first half, forcing Michigan to dig deeper into its already thin depth. 

For Purdue, the offensive solution was going to star center Zach Edey. He scored the first seven points of the game for the Boilers and remained a problem inside, with a flurry of scores beginning the game-changing run for the visitors. After Michigan led 28-26 with 8:02 to play, Purdue would embark on a 15-0 run consuming nearly five minutes of game time. Edey got it started with a pair of shots made in the paint sandwiched around a David Jenkins Jr. three, and from there the Purdue offense was off and rolling. The lead eventually stretched to 41-28 with 3:06 remaining in the half when the Wolverines started to fight back, a solid spurt to end the half that allowed the game to feel semi-competitive at halftime. Kobe Bufkin's layup ended the drought for Michigan, Hunter Dickinson stepped out for a three and made a pair of free throws, and one final stop had Michigan into halftime only down seven, 41-35. 

That last three minute run gave Michigan a chance going into the break, but they were merely hanging in there on defense. The Boilermakers' offense scored at a scorching 1.27 PPP clip in the first half, 51.9% from the field and dominating inside, 40% from three, and as many turnovers as offensive rebounds (4). Michigan's offense got off to that hot start but their overall halftime numbers were not as impressive. They kept the turnovers low (2) and snatched five offensive boards, but shot only 11/29 (37.9%) from the floor. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The second half started strong for Purdue, bouncing back quickly from Michigan's late run. Michigan turned it over on their first possession and the Boilers went up the court and the Michigan defense lost Fletcher Loyer in coverage. Matt Painter's squad got him the ball and he swished the three. Dickinson turned it over on the next Michigan possession and before long, Edey was laying it in for another quick make. 46-35, lead back to double digits just like that.

Purdue stayed ahead by about that margin for the next several minutes, but Michigan attempted to mount a run and they were led by Kobe Bufkin in doing so. Bufkin was finishing at the rim, hitting shots in the midrange, and then capped it with a three to trim the Purdue lead to 52-46 with 13:31 to go. It was during this stretch of the game that felt like it was now or never for the Michigan offense to make a run and to their credit, they were getting that offense. Bufkin was the star, but Dickinson chipped in, and a layup by Jace Howard slashed the lead down to five.

What they didn't have, however, was enough defense. For nearly the remainder of the game (up until the late Michigan push in the closing moments), every score or small run by the Maize & Blue was immediately countered with a basket or two by the Boilermakers that got the lead right back to where it was. After Howard's basket to make it a five point game, Michigan would spend the next 12 minutes never trailing by more than ten, but also never getting any closer than five. They could get scores, but couldn't get stops. Or they'd get a few stops, but couldn't get scores. Whatever it took, Purdue found just enough to stay a nose ahead of the Wolverines and salt away the final minutes from the scoreboard. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Michigan kept battling, and did put together a furious charge with under a minute to go. They were down nine points with 45 seconds left when Zach Edey turned it over. Then the mayhem started. Dickinson hit a three, Purdue turned it over under pressure from Joey Baker right off the in-bounds pass, but Michigan couldn't convert on the ensuing possession. However, Edey missed the front end of a one-and-one and Baker got a quick layup to trim the lead to four. Loyer made his free throws, but Michigan pulled even closer when Baker banked in a three with five seconds left. 73-70. Michigan fouled Brandon Newman and the last hope rested on Newman missing the front end of another one-and-one. Unfortunately, Newman made them both and the Purdue faithful could collectively exhale. The meaningless Michigan shot at the horn was off the mark and the game was over. 

Michigan is now 11-9 on the season and 5-4 in conference play. They are back in action on Sunday for the beginning of a two game road trip, battling the Penn State Nittany Lions this weekend. That game is a re-match of one that Michigan won at Crisler earlier this month. The game is scheduled for noon EST and will be broadcast on BTN. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

Sizeable matchup. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #60 Michigan (11-8, 5-3)
vs #5 Purdue (19-1, 8-1)

image

WHERE Crisler Arena
Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN 9:00 PM
THE LINE Kenpom: PU -3
Torvik: PU-6
TELEVISION FS1

THE OVERVIEW

It's hard to win on the road in college basketball. Leave aside Purdue's loss at home to Rutgers for a moment and let's discuss their travels in the Big Ten thus far. Nebraska took them to overtime (W, 65-62). They needed a triple with 10 seconds left, followed by Ohio State's worst offensive possession of the season, to win 71-69 in Columbus. Purdue then found themselves the team down a score with 10 left versus MSU. The difference, of course, is Michigan State has nobody taller than 6'9". Purdue just got the ball to Zach Edey.

It helped that all three of those opponents airballed threes at the buzzer, but in general having an Edey has been the trick. From spots 1-4 the Boilermakers aren't all that different from the rest of the vast mediocre middle of the Big Ten. At spot 5, they have the most ludicrous former hockey player in basketball. Their defensive strategy is to make every shot an impossible parabola over the 7'4" guy. Their offensive strategy is…well they have Matt Painter so their strategy is actually very good and varied. But even that is predicated on the fact they can always arc it to Edey in the low post. If you arc it at the basket instead, Edey will just get the rebound. In a different age a creature such as Edey would be a high priority for the pros. In today's NBA, they've learned to emphasize an Edey's defensive limitations away from the rim by stockpiling 6'8" freaks who can rain down threes.

Michigan had a guy like that. Jett Howard has shown he's quite adept at using screens to terrorize three-guard lineups, and correspondingly rose to become the top Big Ten player on draft boards. Then he fell on his ankle against Minnesota last weekend, and reappeared in a boot. The consensus guess is it's a high ankle sprain, which is not serious for his long-term prospects, and the kind of thing you can play on after a few weeks and be 75% of your normal self the rest of the season.

For Michigan, it's probably the final knife in the belly of their Tourney bid. It's not just that they were going to need 100% of their best—and most quickly improving—scorer to make a run down the stretch. They needed him tonight, their last chance before the Big Ten Tourney at a signature victory.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

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faq for these graphics

No Jett. Maybe no Jett ever again. Probably no unhobbled-by-injury Jett ever again. :(

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

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YMMV if the freshman guards deserve their stars. I'm trying to put myself in the position of hypothetical Purdue blogger here, who thinks Smith has cut down on his turnovers enough and Loyer's ability to get the rim put him over recently as well. Matt D will say the ability to move your feet on defense is kind of important. Tell it to the snowman, neighbor.

[Hit THE JUMP for the last chance.]

Nobody that anybody takes seriously got it right.