2022-23 hockey preview

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[After THE JUMP: What's to be said]

Previously: Freshmen forwards, returning forwards, season preview HockeyCast, defense/goalies

Over the past week and a half I've been slowly rolling out my Michigan Hockey Season preview. Over the first three installments we were breaking down the roster, and today we come to the final piece of the puzzle. In this article we will instead be focusing on the rest of the conference, as well as Michigan's schedule more broadly. Then, at the end, we will make a few predictions, and wrap up the preview. Let's start by analyzing the B1G, which I have broken down into tiers: 

Tier I: The Contenders - Minnesota, Michigan, and Notre Dame 

Michigan 

Not going to go in depth because that's what the other preview articles were supposed to do. 

Minnesota

Last season: 1st in B1G, 24-11-4 (17-4-3), lost in Frozen Four 

Key Additions: Logan Cooley, Jimmy Snuggerud, Ryan Chesley, Brody Lamb, Connor Kurth, Luke Mittelstadt

Key Losses: Ben Meyers, Blake McLaughlin, Sammy Walker, Chaz Lucius, Tristan Broz, Ben Brinkman 

Minnesota was close to Michigan's equal last season, finishing ahead of the Wolverines in the standings, though Michigan did beat Minnesota for the B1G Tournament title and won the season series. Both teams met the same fate in the end, losing in the Frozen Four, the Gophers to Minnesota State and Michigan to Denver. Minnesota had a bit of an odd offseason, stomaching huge losses on offense but rolling over the entirety of a very good defense laden with NHL talent. Ryan Johnson, Jackson LaCombe, and Brock Faber all have a shot to play in the NHL and are the strength of this team. 

The college hockey blogosphere is coronating Minnesota, earning the #1 ranking in CHN's preseason power rankings. I am a bit more skeptical of the Gophers, placing them in the same tier as Notre Dame and Michigan and refusing to name them outright favorites for the conference. The reason is the sizable turnover on offense, as well as questions I still have in net. As for the offense, I'm a bit confused why Michigan's offensive losses have been emphasized by neutral observers but Minnesota's have not... Gophers lost a ton! Ben Meyers was an awesome player, the alleged best skater in college hockey, while McLaughlin and Walker were important complementary scorers. Likewise, the departure after just one season of the talented Chaz Lucius (signed in pros) and Tristan Broz (transferred to Denver) means Minnesota will have to lean on freshman more than you'd like. 

To be clear, the freshmen that they add are projected to be studs. Logan Cooley went 3rd overall in the 2022 Draft and he should be a star right away. Jimmy Snuggerud went in the first round as well, while Brody Lamb and Connor Kurth were also drafted. Minnesota's offense should be fine, but we'll see how long it takes for the forwards to gel. The return of star Matthew Knies, who scored 15 goals and 33 points in as many games, will help usher the likes of Cooley and Snuggerud into college hockey. 

Defensively, the return of such a veteran group of blueliners sets the team up for success. Adding 2nd round pick Ryan Chesley to that mix is pretty nice too. They will make life easier on goaltender Justen Close, who is my other question mark. Close was thrust into duty last season when starter Jack LaFontaine exited the program to sign with the Carolina Hurricanes. Expectations were very low for a seldom-used player without a flashy recruiting profile but Close balled out in the half-season he played, posting close to a .930 SV% and leading Minnesota to Boston. If that Close is the real deal, then Minnesota will be a great team. I just need to see him do it for a little longer for me to believe that's the real Justen Close, because he has fewer than 20 career NCAA games at that level of play. 

Overall, I will save some of my comparison between Minnesota and Michigan for the end of the article, but the Gophers should be a very good team, top ten in the country. Their raw talent and experience on defense will take them a long way. Whether they win the B1G and find themselves in contention for the #1 overall seed comes down to if Close can hold up as a star goalie and how long it takes for the offensive pieces to gel. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: An annoying foe, mediocre teams, and a rebuild]

Previously: Freshmen forwards, returning forwards, season preview HockeyCast 

This is the third and final position preview of our Michigan Hockey season preview. After covering the forwards, both returners and newbies, today we pivot to the defense and the goalies in one large and comprehensive piece. Part III of the season preview series begins. 

Luke Hughes

Year: Sophomore 

Height/Weight: 6'2"/190 

NHL Draft Position: 4th overall, 2022 NHL Draft, New Jersey

Stats: 17-22-39 in 41 games last season 

Why not start with the star? Luke Hughes was a dazzling freshman last season, not just meeting the lofty expectations bestowed by his draft position but exceeding them. The USNTDP product and the youngest Hughes brother had an even better freshman year than his brother Quinn did at Michigan, which is saying something. Luke scored a staggering 17 goals as a defenseman, writing his name into the Michigan Hockey record book with that total. Even crazier, just 3 of those 17 goals came on the PP! That lack of PP1 assignments, thanks to Owen Power's presence on the team, hampered Hughes' point totals some, yet he still piled up 22 assists to score just shy of a point-per-game. Hughes finished third on the team in points and in choosing to return to school, Hughes made himself the top dog for this 2022-23 Michigan squad. 

Unlike some freshmen, Hughes was a stud right from the jump. Just two months into the season, your author was calling Hughes "Michigan's most electric player". He had points in his first six NCAA games and maintained his blazing pace as the year went along. When Power departed with the Olympians and Hughes was elevated to the true #1 role offensively, Luke went crazy, posting 6-3-9 in four games. One of those goals was this one:  

Your author has watched many Michigan Hockey games at Yost Ice Arena, but the Hughes ThunderGoal against OSU remains the most "Yowza!!!!" moment he's ever seen. That's the sort of player Luke Hughes is. He's a gorgeous skater like his siblings, but he's faster in a straight line than Quinn, more capable of the flash-of-lightning type play like the one clipped above. His skating ability drives the package, but a good shot, stellar offensive instincts, and plus vision make him the best offensive defenseman in college hockey, and also the best offensive defenseman prospect not playing in the NHL in your author's opinion. Plays like this happen often with Hughes out there: 

Jimmy Lambert wins the draw back to Luke Hughes and buries it to make it 2-0 Michigan pic.twitter.com/CbxkoFJ5Qd

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) March 27, 2022

Hughes drives transitional play while on the ice, performing his duties as a zone exit/zone entry machine. He attacks off the rush but is also a major weapon activating in the cycle game once in the offensive zone. All this of course means that Hughes is an offensively dominant player, but one who is going to be vacating defensively responsibilities often, as is the case for all puck rushers.

Defensively, there are some warts to his game, both from him leaving his post but also in-zone. Working on the defensive side of the game is presumably why Luke is back at Michigan. At 6'2", he has a chance to be a better defensive defenseman than Quinn ever was, but it will take hard work and attention to detail from Luke, especially positionally. Whether that part of the game comes along is what to watch this season, because you know he's going to light up the scoreboard. 

Season Expectations: This is Luke's season to make a run for the Hobey Baker. Michigan has not won the Hobey since Kevin Porter in 2008 (because the 2016 voters deserve time in a maximum security prison) and Luke Hughes appears to be the best shot since then to win one for the Wolverines. I suspect that his goal totals will decline some, because he maintained an extremely high S% for a defenseman which seems likely to revert to a lower mean, but the expanded role Hughes has on the PP will pad his assist totals no doubt. He should match his points-per-game total from last season at least, and perhaps exceed it. How much higher it can climb, and Michigan's team success, will determine his Hobey case, but this is a player who is the headliner for the team no matter what defender he's paired with. #1 defenseman, top pair, PP1, all the assignments. Superstar. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Other players who are not likely Hobey candidates]