2019-20 penn state

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]
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38

Basketbullets: Roko's Basketball Basilisk
Brian • January 23, 2020 • 1:15pm

1/22/2020 – Michigan 63, Penn State 72 – 11-7, 2-5 Big Ten

I give up on not being repetitive. The games are repetitive. Make a shot! Shoot the ball into the basket! Jump, and then at or around the apex of your jump release the ball such that it arcs with some nice backspin and goes through the net! It is in these ways that basketball games are won! Theoretically!

Sometimes I wonder if I'm being way too fatalist about basketball. In my brain I give a team a certain number of points when a shot goes up, and keep a running total of grievance against the universe when the points in my head add up to something nice and the scoreboard is something nasty. The immediate aftermath of a shot I consider bad going down for the opponent is a scoff or an eyeroll. I hold grudges about Michigan players taking shots I consider bad even if they go down.

A basketball game is not a competition that is ceased at the moment a shot goes up and then given a score by a panel of judges. But in the cold light of dawn five games into the resumption of Big Ten play, I am here to say it damn well should be.

Look, here are other people who are making similar observations. They are somewhere between observant, resigned, and wondering if the universe is a simulation designed to torture them because they did not sufficiently aid the development of a superintelligent AI:

The basketball is making me feel deranged so I reach out into the void for people with similar opinions about how basketball becomes much easier if you put the ball into the hoop.

---------------------------------

Michigan has various other problems, of course. But those problems can be the same size and feel vastly less important if Michigan hits a damn shot. Since Livers went out Michigan is hitting 27% from three; opponents are hitting 40%. When Kenpom did a series on what is and is not in a basketball team's control in any particular game Michigan's most prominent current issue ended up almost dead last:

And that leads me to a different way of looking at the control issue. Below are the stats ranked by each side’s absolute control over them.

Offense  Defense
APL      Blk%
3PA%     PPP
PPP      3PA%
A%       Stl%
TO%      TO%
2P%      FTR
NST%     2P%
OR%      APL
Stl%     A%
FTR      NST%
FT%      OR%
Blk%     3P%
3P%      FT%

So while the defense only has 29% control of its opponent’s three-point attempt percentage, in terms of absolute control there are only two things it has more infleunce over – block percentage and points per possession. There is less random variance associated with three-point attempt percentage than any other stat I looked at except for points per possession. And the only thing the defense has less absolute control over than opposing three-point percentage is opposing free-throw percentage.

In the micro there are things Michigan is doing on certain possessions that mean they're more likely to lose basketball games. Eric Shapiro pointed some broken rotations out that led to open looks for PSU:

In the macro… I mean… come on.

[After the JUMP: corpse prodded]

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Michigan dropped a chance a much-needed win [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
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75

Penn State 72, Michigan 63
Ace • January 22, 2020 • 9:46pm

Tonight was a bad night for Michigan to be unable to hit a jump shot, but alas, that's basketball. The continued absence of Isaiah Livers can only account for so much of this brutal offensive performance. The Wolverines made 17 of their 27 attempts in the paint; they were 7-for-41 on shots outside the lane, including a 5-for-28 mark on three-pointers.

The most frustrating part—okay, aside from watching the bricks pile up—is this remained a winnable game until late. The Wolverines finished with a surprising 11-3 edge in second-chance points, led by Brandon Johns, who scored a career-high 14 points and pulled down five offensive boards. After eight first-half turnovers, Michigan committed only five in the second half. They held the edge in free throw attempts until late-game foulin' time.

Brandon Johns probably didn't make this because it's a jumper. [Campredon]

But this is ultimately a game of making shots. Penn State hit eight threes, three more than Michigan, on nine fewer attempts. Lamar Stevens went to work from midrange on his way to a game-high 19 points. After zero first-half points, Curtis Jones came off the bench scorching the nets with 18 points on nine shots in the second. Myreon Jones connected on 3-of-4 threes on his way to 16 points.

No stat line encapsulates Michigan's night better than leading scorer Zavier Simpson's: 18 points, 6/18 on twos, 2/7 on threes, no trips to the line, six rebounds, six assists, six turnovers. While Simpson did a lot of good, his jumper failed him, and he played loose with the ball in the early going. The third Wolverine to finish in double figures was Eli Brooks, who needed 14 shooting possessions to score 12 points. Jon Teske went 4-for-6 inside the arc and 0-for-4 beyond it, Franz Wagner went 1-for-9 from the field, and David DeJulius scored his only two points at the line. This stretch of basketball, if we can call it that, occurred:

That is a long period of ugly.

There's not a whole lot more to say in the immediate aftermath of the game. Michigan played a solid defensive game, Penn State hit a few more shots than you'd expect from their selection, and the Wolverines missed more than enough open shots to make up the difference. They now sit at 2-5 in the Big Ten; another home loss could put them in perilous tournament positioning. While Livers can't return soon enough, this team needs more than that if they're going to keep pace in a brutal conference—he can't make shots for his teammates.

[Hit THE JUMP for the box score, if you dare.]

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priority number one: stop number 11 [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
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38

Hoops Preview: Penn State
Ace • January 22, 2020 • 11:35am

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #18 Michigan (11-6, 2-4 Big Ten)
vs #30 Penn State (13-5, 3-4)

WHERE Crisler Center
Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 7:01 pm Eastern
Wednesday, Jan. 22nd
THE LINE Michigan -5 (KenPom)
Michigan -4.1 (Torvik)
TELEVISION BTN
PBP: Kevin Kugler
Analyst: Shon Morris

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

​

The tea leaves remain difficult to read regarding Isaiah Livers's return from his groin injury:

Isaiah Livers approached his coach, Juwan Howard, recently and let out some steam. The junior forward has been classified as “day-to-day” for over a month now, watching helplessly as his team has sputtered to a 2-3 record in his absence.

“‘Coach, this is a tough time for me right now,’ ” Howard recalled Livers saying. ‘I’m going through it.’” 

Howard offered no assurances of Livers’ imminent return, only that “he’s improving”, which he deemed to be “a great sign, not a good sign, a great sign.”

He seems to be close; he went through full warmups before the Iowa game, a sign he's on the verge of being cleared to play. While we're leaving him off the graphic, there's a chance he suits up.

This would be a great time to get him back, not only due to the matchup with Lamar Stevens—this is the beginning of a critical stretch for Michigan's tournament outlook, as I detailed yesterday. Still, it's too soon for certain questions:

Let's keep our heads, please.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

​

Penn State has made two recent changes to their starting lineup, replacing senior center Mike Watkins with more offensive-oriented junior John Harrar and benching cold-shooting guard Myles Dread with freshman Seth Lundy.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

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