2019-20 michigan state #2

If you missed my previous post on the shift in defensive philosophy happening at both the NBA and NCAA level, you're going to want to take a look at that before proceeding since it provides the necessary context. A brief refresher:

• While recent conventional wisdom had been to suppress three-point attempts on defense, more NBA teams are packing the paint instead and forcing teams to try to beat them with jumpers.
• Both approaches can be successful but the very best defenses are mostly packing the paint.
• Those same trends held at the college level last year.

The Milwaukee Bucks under Mike Budenholzer have been at the forefront of the movement towards packing the paint the last couple years. Their approach and its success are discussed at length in the previous post and examined even deeper in a couple articles linked therein. If you prefer visual learning, there are a couple videos that clock in under ten minutes each with a great film room explainer—here's the link to part one, which mostly covers drop pick-and-roll coverage, and part two is below:

Now I want to dive into whether Michigan could be in line to change their defensive approach and whether it makes sense to do so. We start in the logical place: Miami.

What Have The Heat Done?

Howard's old team hints at a future shift in philosophy [Bryan Fuller]

Funny you should ask.

For much of Juwan Howard's time as an assistant with the Heat, Miami's defensive approach looked like Michigan's current strategy: suppress three-point attempts as much as possible. In 2016-17, they gave up the lowest opponent three-point rate in the NBA with only 27% of opponent field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. They consistently posted top-ten defenses.

In Howard's final year as an assistant, however, Miami completely changed their approach despite returning most of the key players from the previous season's eighth-ranked defense. With threes now comprising nearly 40% of opponent attempts, the Heat moved up one spot in the NBA's defense rankings.

While the Heat defense fell out of the top ten this season while going even more extreme in their new pack-the-paint ways, injuries and personnel changes explain the dropoff. Stalwart wing defender Josh Richardson left for Philadelphia, and while adding Jimmy Butler helped cover for Richardson's absence, an injury to Justice Winslow meant 30 minutes per game of Duncan Robinson—a boon to the offense but not the defense. Meanwhile, they didn't adequately replace backup center Hassan Whiteside, who'd previously formed an excellent platoon with Bam Adebayo.

Given the seamless switchover in 2018-19 and the extenuating circumstances this season, I'd say Miami's shift to Milwaukee's general approach has been a success. Howard was on the bench for its implementation. That feels worth noting.

[Hit THE JUMP to see how Michigan already implemented a similar strategy last year and how it might fit with their personnel going forward.]

2/8/2020 – Michigan 77, Michigan State 68 – 14-9, 5-7 Big Ten

Afterwards, Tom Izzo sat down for a classic Tom Izzo press conference. The Izzo standard is to complain about how his backup point guard has bunions immediately after saying he's not saying the things he's saying. Sometimes immediately before. You can see the U-turn in an em dash:

"Simpson goes 4-for-7 from the three. He hasn’t done that in weeks. That’s — give him credit. He’s a competitive kid."

I'm not sure how we are defining "that" but Simpson is literally coming off a 3/7 performance from three in the game before this one. He's shooting 36% on the season, and that number was above 40% early when teams were giving him the full Tum-Tum treatment. Simpson still has trouble when teams give him a modicum of respect. He can hit practice jumpers now. MSU gave him practice jumpers.

https://t.co/VQH3fWb60m pic.twitter.com/AnCNZ36DPC

— Scott Bell (@sbell021) February 9, 2020

And they kept doing it after Simpson hit his first two.

On the other end of the court Michigan had a similar gamble: they left Xavier Tillman alone behind the line. This worked out better. Tillman was 0/3; he entered the game a 31% three point shooter on extremely thin volume and left it a 29% shooter.

Leaving Tillman allowed Michigan to bottle up Cassius Winston by constantly blitzing ballscreens. Floaters were gone. Winston's two makes inside the arc were an off-the-dribble stepback from just inside the three point line and a layup Michigan gave him because they were up nine with 20 seconds left. He got one open corner three operating off the ball; every other one of his three point attempts was off the dribble and challenged except for a shot from the logo in Izzo Eats His Liver time.

Michigan won on the boards and gave up close to no transition. Against Michigan State.

-------------------------------------------

[Campredon]

The recent history of this series has been unusually dependent on giant flashing red THIS IS COACHING signs. Moe Wagner against Nick Ward followed by Zavier Simpson against Xavier Tillman moved the series from "bust they ass on three" to a three-game season sweep for MSU last year.

The opening game this year was the first real one without Livers and the dawn of Michigan's month of horrendous three-point luck so it didn't feel like quite as coach-driven as recent events. It still featured a lot of MSU running off makes and another Winston/Simpson head-to-head matchup that Simpson lost, his fourth straight.

On Saturday, Juwan Howard gave it to Tom Izzo. MSU could not run; Winston had Eli Brooks shadowing him most of the day. Simpson was largely sitting in a corner, marshalling his strength, instead of running around four ball screens on every defensive possession. It's not a coincidence that his massively wide open shots went down. He was fresh. He outperformed Winston in the meeting right after the game in which I threw up my hands and said "he's Trey Burke, oh well."

Beating Michigan State is important for a lot of reasons, not least today's Mega Spartanfreude Monday. This early in Howard's coaching career, though, taking a bad situation against a hall of fame coach and flipping the script in a month noses ahead of the pack.

Tom Izzo's reduced to kicking a can and sputtering about how his players are "fatigued" a few months into Howard's Zack and Stu phase. Beilein's Zack and Stu phase lasted four years; Howard is one Josh Christopher away from having his phase last one year. Combine the fact that Howard has met every basketball player in America at some point with his player management and his clear coaching chops and you've got a hell of a stew cooking.

[After THE JUMP: stop asking Izzo to stab you]

1 hour and 38 minutes

The Sponsors

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1. Hoops vs Michigan State

starts at 1:00

Franz Wagner didn't score but his gumby arms were huge—got a good Wagner face from the block that was inexplicably called a foul. Turned on some rebounding potential. Comp? Michigan finally wins from the 3 point line. Nice to have Livers back, not just because Johns is a very good backup 4. Michigan renders Bingham useless—Johns and Davis could body him, and Livers means he can't be on the floor for spacing otherwise. Izzo's whiny bitch fest of a press conference. Why does anyone play for that guy?

2. Hoops vs Ohio State

starts at 25:46

The most insane call we've ever seen—doesn't help the refs that their explanation for the call is patently untrue. Complete officiating debacle—Kaleb Wesson should have fouled out—you literally can't take a charge if the guy is in the air before you get there! Bad both ways yes but asymmetric, and good lord. When's the last time Michigan ever got a gift game, because we have to eat 3 or 4 losses a year. Michigan is 96th %ile in short clock plays. Questionable coaching: drop coverage on Kaleb Wesson. Peak this season is cursed.

3. Hot Takes and Mark Dantonio

starts at 45:32

The XFL: a lot of good ideas for entertaining football. Seems like this league is set up for more success than previous ones. Kickoffs are cool, punting is bad, "Team 9" league-wide practice squad. Michigan's tourney resume vs State's: um, actually it's better.

Dantonio: run by Curtis Blackwell! Was clear if he was going to leave he would have gone to Beekman and gotten his money. Tom Mars is involved now. If Blackwell comes out clean here Michigan should hire him! MSU job: inheriting a rogue program after its best coach with two years of cratered recruiting. Timing is bad because you can't get in on the portal now, terrible fanbase, toughest division. Preemptive no's from Narduzzi, ISU's head coach.

4. Ace's Sconnie Hockey Podcast

starts at 1:18:02

Wisconsin's goaltending is TERRIBLE. Getting production from Granowicz. Potential #1 line with Beecher (muscle)/Hayhurst (creator)? Control their own destiny to win the league (have to win 6 in a row) but still outside looking in on tournament. They've improving: get the puck out of the zone cleaner, playing solid. Wonder what position they'd be in if they didn't take a bad luck goal against PSU and get rogered by the refs vs OSU. Only PSU in this league is a lock for the tournament but all the way down to MSU is bubble.

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