2019-20 louisville

Brian is out so Craig Ross is sitting in for him.

2 hours

The Sponsors

We can do this because people support us. You should support them! The show is presented by UGP & The Bo Store, and if it wasn’t for Rishi and Ryan we’d be all be very sad ex-Vox employees with “real” jobs.

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1. Football

starts at 1:00

On Michigan's side only Nico seems like any shot at a 1st rounder, guys who declared and seniors are expected to play. On Bama's side, Jerry Jeudy said he'll play, and they have three projected first round receivers and eight guys projected in the 1st round who have a choice to make. Tarik Black leaving could mean Nico and DPJ are leaning toward staying? Receivers of the future: we'll see but Michigan can use their slots more.

Don Brown interviewed for BC job, went to OSU's DC (not Matty) so what happens with Mattison?

2. Louisville, Iowa, and Illinois

starts at 26:52

UL was a schedule loss: forced Teske to make threes or long two's with high hedges. Counterintuitive to blitz X because he's not a great shooter. Someone else with athletes will try this. Iowa: highest-scoring Big Ten regulation game since 2002. Michigan is balanced; Iowa is not because Michigan and Iowa both had the same gameplan. 44 points by Garza: an arena record? You coach to the game. Illinois: Michigan doesn't hit their threes, Kofi Cockburn is a problem. Lewis Garrison literally knocked out of this one; other two refs clearly capable of doing a better job with him off the court.

3. Hot Takes and Oregon

starts at 59:42

David's hot take voice is extremely British. Craig thought the Oregon game was one of the loudest ever. Craig advocates for a huge lineup with Johns & Franz with Livers at the 2. Impressed by Pritchard, who's the first guy to run X off the line. Two insanely long reviews.

4. Expectations

starts at 1:36:32

Johns could be a season-changer. Brooks's floater game isn't so efficient that you can discount DDJ taking more of his minutes down the line. Castleton is falling out of rotation as they find something they want in Johns. Trip around the Big Ten: Minnesota and Penn State are going to be tough to beat on the road, Ohio State looks like a real #1 thanks to Wesson.

MUSIC:

• "Tell Them You Can't Leave"—The Amazing
• "Woods"—Time Fading Lines
• "Getting Better"–Twin Peaks
• “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS:

• Helpful iTunes subscribe link
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• What's with the theme music?

No matter what your strategy is you don't want a guy dropping 44 on ya.

12/3/2019 – Michigan 43, Louisville 58 – 7-1

The John Beilein era was not exactly thick with offensive debacles, so everyone was probably thinking of the same two games as Louisville constricted Michigan's offense last night. One was last year's Sweet 16 game against Texas Tech. That ended Michigan's season, after which three guys and the coach left. Also that was a historically great and very weird defense. So there's no data on how Michigan recovered from that.

The other, though, was Michigan doing this at South Carolina three years ago:

points, twos, threes

This, too, came after Michigan had just lodged a couple of encouraging wins in a tournament. They'd hammered Marquette and SMU in New York. The trip to Columbia was Michigan's first road game of the season. Like Louisville, South Carolina had played no one of note, winning a couple of games against fringe top 100 foes and mixing in some cupcakes. Any spare prep time they'd had all season got applied to Michigan since it was the first real test on the schedule. And Michigan got blitzed.

The good news is that result had close to no bearing on the rest of the season. This was the Maverick Morgan year. Until mid-January Michigan's defense did a fair job of obscuring what would end up the #4 offense on Kenpom. The South Carolina game (and a Texas game a couple weeks later Michigan actually won) were so far out of trend that they look like a different team took the court for a couple nonconference games. Torvik's chart of adjusted offensive efficiency that year:

red: ncaa average efficiency, thick yellow: moving average, thin yellow: linear trend line, dotted: 5 game moving average

I don't have to tell you which one is South Carolina. For their part, they had an elite defense all year, finishing third, and went on a Final Four run after landing a seven-seed. Louisville is going to have an elite defense as well.

It'll be fine. If you'd offered me three of four against Iowa State, UNC, Gonzaga, and Louisville—with none of them at home—you'd lose your arm because I shook it so fast. Eating a schedule loss at the end of that sequence is hard to watch but less indicative of what's going to happen down the road than Atlantis.

[After THE JUMP: Phil Martelli on fjords]

In what became the de facto #1 game of this year's Big Ten/ACC Challenge, Michigan came out looking like they had just played three games in three days in another country, and Louisville showed their home fans why they're the #1 team in this one.

The sluggish Wolverines were stymied by Louisville's defense, which doubled the ball, and harassed Simpson—who came into the game with a nation-leading .500 assist rate—with hard hedges he looked unpracticed against. Their engine already sputtering, Simpson picked up his second foul with 5 minutes left in the frame. Lamarr Kimble made 1/2 ensuing free throws to push their lead to 22-7 as X hit the bench. Brooks took over at point but couldn't penetrate where Simpson had already failed. The Wolverines finished the first half with 18 points, six turnovers to just one assist, and 0.39 points per possession by my reckoning--arguably their worst half of offense since Beilein's first season.

For the most part Louisville managed to do to Michigan's offense what the Wolverines did in Atlantis to Gonzaga and UNC: force them into all kinds of bad twos. Michigan tried to have Teske work down low but that further played into the Cardinals' defensive strength with those two burly bigs they rotate. Louisville too looked uncomfortable with Michigan's length, forcing up contested jumpers or driving into a sea of arms. The teams combined to start the game 5/26 from the field over the first eight minutes, the Cardinals getting just a few more bad shots to fall and capitalizing on a few open shots off loose balls.

Ope, lemme just. [Campredon]

Even when they did find a crack—mostly in the second half—Michigan's shooters could barely hit iron. Isaiah Livers, Franz Wagner, and Eli Brooks combined to go 2/10 from the arc despite mostly decent looks; as a team they were 3/19.

The standoff finally broke in a direction when Louisville center Steven Enoch made long set shot two over Teske, the kind of shot you'd let a 6'10/255 guy take any day. On Michigan's next possession David DeJulius got the ball to Livers in position to drive, but he kicked it back to DDJ who forced a long three attempt. The ball bounced off iron and started a rare transition drive that ended with the first open look all night for Jordan Nwora, who drilled a three to push the score to 18-5 at the 7 minute mark.

We shouldn't even be here today. [Campredon]

The second half began with a glimmer of hope as Simpson started reacting better to the hedges. Assist #500 of his career was, appropriately, a perfect pick and roll to Jon Teske to cut Louisville's lead to four. It was also the last nice moment for their team. Louisville answered Michigan's 6-0 run with an 8-0 period of their own, though every bucket was well-contested. A prayer by SF Samuell Williamson spun 360 degrees around the rim, then popped right back to him for a put-back to extend the Louisville lead to 12 and send their home crowd into an enviable roar.

(Side note: more students near the floor seems like a good idea cc Warde)

Heavy legs set in again from there, though Zavier Simpson at least wasn't ready to quit. He broke through a hard hedge and got the ball to Eli Brooks at the top of the key, but Eli passed it up. Simpson drove and kicked it out to Wagner several times after that, but the freshman struggled to collect one, and missed two more perfect looks. Michigan again had to go back to their C/PG pair until they too finally wore down. Teske finished 5/14 from two, 1/4 from three, and 5/8 on free throws. Simpson went 4-9—most of those hook shots—at the rim, 0/2 deep and 1/3 on free throws, finishing with just 3 assists to 4 turnovers.

Simpson's skyhooks weren't going in at their normal clip, but they were going in more than anything else. [Campredon]

The last 10 minutes got weird. Enoch got away with a travel of six steps before putting in a basket over an incredulously pointing Teske. Simpson slipped while dribbling, picked himself up, drove, and kicked out for a Big Sleep three to cut the lead to 10. A few possessions later Teske had the ball in transition and took a heat check. I guess when you're the only guy on the team who's hit from range you might as well.

Current Kenpom Player of the Year leader Jordan Nwora finally woke up for the last few minutes, driving down Michigan's now clearly exhausted wings and beating them down the court for a dagger of an and-one. A three-pointer by Enoch at the top of the arc was the final sign this wasn't happening.

There are worse losses to take than on the road, on a quick turnaround after a tournament, at even a soft #1 team in the country. Another solid defensive performance against a team that came in unsustainably hot, and the uncharacteristically cold shooting from guys with a track record otherwise, suggest this was probably just one of those schedule losses.

That schedule doesn't ease up yet. A hot-shooting Iowa squad visits Crisler on Friday.

Box score after THE JUMP: