2017-18 northwestern #2

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Here is the power of home and away in college basketball: Michigan entered their most recent game against #91 Minnesota with an 80%+ win probability in Kenpom, which translated to a projected 11 point edge. (It did not quite work out that way.) Playing virtually the same quality team on the road, Michigan is favored by one. Also: at Crisler Michigan trailed this Northwestern team 14-5 halfway through the first half and Kenpom still had Michigan a 53% favorite.

Because of this huge swing in game outcomes based on little more that referee whims, Michigan's finishing stretch is coin flip central. Michigan has a win probability between 43 and 60% in five of their six remaining games, with a home game against Iowa (84%) the lone exception.

This Northwestern game is a 55% shot per Kenpom, though there are there are a couple complicating factors. Northwestern's temporary tenancy in Rosemont, Illinois, has resulted in a home court advantage in the bottom third of DI, far worse than Crisler's middling results. On the other hand, Michigan is arriving in Chicago today since their flight was snowed out last night. Hopefully they bring their practice jerseys.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	ORtg	SIBMIHHAT
G	30	Bryant McIntosh	Sr.	6'3, 200	78	25	98	Kinda
NW main and only shot creator enjoying his 8th season of Big Ten play. 41/30 splits, gets stuck with bad late clock stuff.
G	20	Scottie Lindsey	Sr.	6'5, 210	76	24	101	Kinda
Other main "oh god someone shoot" guy. 45/31 on ton of volume. Does not get to line.
F	4	Vic Law	Jr.	6'7, 200	72	21	112	No
39% from three; does go inside somewhat frequently. DREB vacuum.
F	44	Gavin Skelly	Sr.	6'8, 235	54	17	103	No
Stretch-ish 4 will offer help rim protection and hit about 1 three a game; lot of TOs in his usage.
C	5	Dererk Pardon	Jr.	6'8, 235	74	19	119	Very
Burly rim specialist will block shots, OREB, and finish.
G	11	Anthony Gaines	Fr.	6'4, 205	39	15	95	Yes
Low usage FR gets to the line semi-frequently and has no other statistical strengths.
G	23	Jordan Ash	Jr.	6'3, 200	31	11	98	Not Really
Invisible reserve G getting 15 minutes a game and occasionally flirting with trillions.
F	35	Aaron Falzon	So.	6'8, 225	31	19	114	Not At All
Just A Shooter hitting 40%.

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