2016-17 big ten basketball

With just four games remaining for most Big Ten teams, it’s pretty safe to say at this point: the Big Ten just isn’t that good this season. Of the seven teams with positive efficiency margins in conference play, only three – Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland – are locks to make it into the NCAA Tournament; the other four (Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan) will probably total three or four bids, but none are safe with three weeks remaining in the season.

While the top three aren’t likely to receive impressive seeds in the NCAA Tournament (mostly due to a lack of significant non-conference wins and the general mediocrity of their conference opponents), there could be some surprises in March. As of right now, the Bracket Matrix has Purdue as a 4, Wisconsin as a 5, and Maryland as a 6.

• PURDUE: Feature National Player of the Year candidate and likely 1st-team All-American PF/C Caleb Swanigan (as well as 7’2 gargantuan Isaac Haas), one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, in the top 20 nationally on offense and defense.
• WISCONSIN: Veteran team with five multi-year starters, have one of the most unique big men in college hoops in Ethan Happ (a defensive menace) as well as two key seniors in guard Bronson Koenig and wing Nigel Hayes, have a top 10 defense nationally.
• MARYLAND: Rank much lower than the other two in computer metrics, but have won a lot of close games throughout the season, start three impressive freshmen in Anthony Cowan, Kevin Huerter, and Justin Jackson, offense and defense are outside top 40 nationally.

Maryland is a year ahead of schedule and quite unlikely to make it to the Sweet 16, in my opinion, although Melo Trimble’s record in tight games over his three seasons in College Park have indicated that the Terps possess perhaps more late-game chops than the conventional statistical wisdom of “results of coin flips are random” would suggest. The Cowan / Huerter / Jackson trio is the best young nucleus in the conference, but tournament success will be difficult for such a young team. I’ve been mostly wrong about UMD since they’ve joined the Big Ten though, so who knows.

Wisconsin and Purdue are better equipped to do some damage as part of March Madness: the Badgers made a surprise run to the Sweet 16 last season and the Boilermakers were felled in a 4/13 first round upset. Recent offensive struggles and a hobbled  Koenig make me a little more leery of Wisconsin’s prospects, but their experience and the presence of Happ make them a relatively safe bet.

Purdue is probably the best team in the Big Ten; a frontcourt of Swanigan and Haas is a formidable matchup for any team, and Matt Painter has surrounded them with a cast of sharpshooters who enable them to operate effectively inside. Teams with strong offense and defense (as opposed to one or the other) as well as one of the best players in the country are always threats to make a deep run and the Boilermakers could be a Final Four team if things break right – though their guard play is still suspect.

[More on the Big Ten – including the bubble – after the JUMP]

[Rich Barnes – USA Today]

Last Week

Michigan 64 - Wisconsin 68

Illinois 68 - Purdue 91

Indiana 78 - Penn State 75

Ohio State 67 - Nebraska 66

Maryland 84 - Iowa 76

Penn State 52 - Purdue 77

Nebraska 64 - Rutgers 65

Illinois 57 - Michigan 66

Michigan State 75 - Indiana 82

Wisconsin 78 - Minnesota 76 (OT)

Northwestern 74 - Ohio State 72

Current Standings

T-1. Maryland (5-1)

T-1. Wisconsin (5-1)

T-3. Northwestern (5-2)

T-3. Purdue (5-2)

T-5. Indiana (4-3)

T-5. Michigan State (4-3)

T-7. Iowa (3-4)

T-7. Michigan (3-4)

T-7. Minnesota (3-4)

T-7. Nebraska (3-4)

T-7. Penn State (3-4)

T-12. Ohio State (2-5)

T-12. Illinois (2-5)

14. Rutgers (1-6)

Northwestern is Actually Good

With Rutgers now permanently affixed to the last-place spot in the conference, it’s easy to forget that Northwestern used to be that bad – and that they were that bad for a really long time. Everybody knows that Northwestern hasn’t ever made it to the NCAA Tournament, but it’s hard to overstate exactly how overmatched the Wildcats were for most of their history. They were Rutgers before Rutgers somehow got a bid to the Big Ten and became Rutgers. They aren’t that anymore.

Right now, Northwestern is 5-2 in Big Ten play despite having already played five conference games on the road. They’re a half-game out of first place. They’re 16-4 overall, and their worst loss came on the road to Michigan State. Right now, 77 of the 78 mock brackets in the Bracket Matrix have NU in the NCAA Tournament – and many of them fall into the 7-10 seed range, a fairly comfortable position. Kenpom projects the Wildcats to finish 23-8 (12-6 in the Big Ten), which would certainly lock them into a spot in March Madness for the first time. At the risk of jinxing things, Northwestern should feel pretty good about their chances.

This past weekend, Northwestern won in Columbus for the first time since the 70’s, and it didn’t even feel like a surprise. Kenpom had favored them – slightly – to win; Ohio State is one of the worst non-Rutgers teams in the Big Ten; Northwestern has been having their best season ever. Still, it was surreal to watch the Wildcats, who were led by scoring two-guard Scottie Lindsey, emerge with a win over Thad Matta on the road – especially because of some excruciating losses NU had suffered to the Buckeyes in recent years. They benefited from 11 missed OSU free throws and won by two in a tightly-contested game.

Right now, Northwestern’s in the top half of the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Some outstanding rim protection (and three-point defense, which is largely random) anchors their defense, which ranks in the top ten of eFG% allowed by opponents. With Dererk Pardon back from injury, they have the size in the frontcourt to give most teams a lot of problems up front. With the emergence of Lindsey and Vic Law as perimeter scoring threats, NU has enough firepower outside to complement Bryant McIntosh (who’s regressed some this season). This isn’t a typical Northwestern team, to say the least. Barring an unexpected implosion, they’ll be a tough out for someone in the tournament come March.

[More after the JUMP]