2015-16 basketball preview

Previously: Hoops Preview Podcast, MGoRadio 1.6 (wsg John Gasaway), Point Guards (Walton, Spike), Wings Part I (LeVert, Dawkins, Irvin), Wings Part II (MAAR, Chatman, Robinson, Wagner), Bigs (Doyle, Donnal, Wilson), Hoopsageddon.

NORTHERN MICHIGAN PREVIEW

Right: Willy the Wildcat could use some time at Camp Sanderson. (via)

Before getting to this season's story, there's a game tonight that should look quite a bit like last week's exhibition. Like Le Moyne, Northern Michigan is a D-II team, and not a particularly good one at that—the Wildcats went 9-19 last season and were picked dead last by some margin in the preseason GLIAC coaches poll.

The Wildcats boast a couple solid outside shooters in guards Jordan Perez and Marcus Hall, but the lineup shouldn't pose much of a threat to Michigan. NMU has one player on the roster taller than 6'7", and he's a 6'10", 200-pound freshman. KenPom gives Michigan a 100% win probability.

On the Wolverines side of things, Zak Irvin will sit out this game because of his back injury; John Beilein said yesterday that while he's healthy he's not back in game shape. Spike Albrecht is still limited from his offseason hip surgeries and will play only spot minutes. The main focus of Michigan fans will be how the rotation shapes up:

• Will Kam Chatman or DJ Wilson look like the superior option at the four?
• Is Mark Donnal really the starting center or is this just like last year?
• Will Moritz Wagner get time, therefore burning his redshirt? Or will Wilson see some time at the five?
• How will MAAR find his way onto the court with Duncan Robinson providing such a quality scoring option off the bench?

Those questions won't all be answered in full tonight, but we should have more of an idea of how this team will look.

[Hit THE JUMP for THE STORY, which is really a health update with a hopefully-not-awkward tie-in to this year's basketball team.]

Previously: Hoops Preview Podcast, MGoRadio 1.6 (wsg John Gasaway), Point Guards,Wings Part I (LeVert, Dawkins, Irvin), Wings Part II (MAAR, Chatman, Robinson, Wagner)

A sign of things to come?

In Jordan Morgan, Mitch McGary, and Jon Horford, Michigan had the good fortune of rolling with a deep and productive group of big men for a couple years. Last year's trio of Ricky Doyle, Mark Donnal, and Max Bielfeldt lacked the experience, skill, and physicality of that group, and there was a noticeable effect on Michigan's performance at both ends of the court.

While Bielfeldt was allowed to move on to a big-desperate Indiana squad for his graduate year, Doyle and Donnal should be better players as sophomores, and DJ Wilson provides hope that Michigan will get more from its bench up front this season. If there's a hole in this lineup, it's at center, but Doyle displayed enough potential last year that this position can quickly turn into a strength if a viable backup emerges.

Ricky Doyle

Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog

Year: Sophomore
Measurables: 6'9", 250
Base Stats: 18.2 MPG, 6.1 PPG, 61/0/59 2P/3P/FT%, 3.2 RPG, 12 blocks
Key Advanced Metrics: 17.9% usage, 117.4 ORating, 10.4 OReb%, 11.9 DReb%, 55.5 FT Rate, 2.6 block %

If you listened to the season preview podcast or the recent hoops-centric MGoRadio, you know the writers of this blog are very excited about Doyle. A series of unforeseen events—Mitch McGary's suspension and subsequent departure, Jon Horford's transfer, Mark Donnal looking overwhelmed—caused him to go from unheralded recruit to starting center for a Big Ten title hopeful, and while Michigan's season didn't go as planned, Doyle rose to the challenge better than anyone could've expected.

[Hit THE JUMP.]

Previously: Hoops Preview Podcast, MGoRadio 1.6 (wsg John Gasaway), Point Guards, Wings Part I (LeVert, Dawkins, Irvin)

Kam Chatman only showed flashes of his four-star ability in 2014-15.

Michigan is deeper this season than at any point during John Beilein's tenure. There's so much depth, in fact, that there's a decent chance at least one of last season's regular contributors drops out of the rotation.

Today's preview post focuses on that depth by looking at backup wings Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Kameron Chatman, Duncan Robinson, and Moritz Wagner. DJ Wilson, who could easily fit into this category, will be covered with the bigs.

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman

Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog

Year: Sophomore
Measurables: 6'4", 185
Base Stats: 19.0 MPG, 4.4 PPG, 49/29/93 2P/3P/FT%, 1.7 RPG, 27 assists, 28 turnovers
Key Advanced Metrics: 16.5% usage, 92.5 ORating, 1.9 steal %

"Rahk" wasn't expected to be a contributor last season after John Beilein picked him up late in the recruiting cycle. When injuries forced him onto the floor for extended minutes in Big Ten season, however, he emerged as a quality scorer off the dribble—after looking jittery early in the season, he shot 54% on two-pointers in conference play.

Rahkman's rise to a prominent role was critical for Michigan in 2014-15, especially when he took on the scoring burden against Michigan State and Illinois, and even more so when he shadowed D'Angelo Russell in M's upset of Ohio State—Russell needed 17 shot equivalents to score 16 points, had five turnovers against two assists, and looked visibly frustrated with Rahk's defense. John Beilein pointed to defense as the way Rahkman can see extended time on the court this season:

“We haven’t even discussed any redshirt possibilities. Muhammad is not of a young age number one, but he’s got his work cut out for him to get the minutes that he did last year and he knows it. He has some explosion to his game and some speed that we do need on this team. That’s all going to come if he can become an excellent defender on this team then there will always be minutes for him.”

That's in part because Michigan could use a perimeter defensive stopper; it's also in part because there are still significant holes in Rahkman's overall game. He shot 29% from three-point range as a freshman, a figure that must improve to keep from affecting Michigan's spacing. He finished with more turnovers than assists; while he wasn't overly turnover-prone, when he drove to the basket he almost always looked for his own shot, and opponents are going to adjust to that. There's reason to think he can improve in both regards; his impressive free-throw shooting (albeit in a small sample) is a sign his jump shot should come around and he looked confident as a ballhandler last year.

The great news for Michigan is that there isn't nearly as much of a need for Rahk to play big minutes with the return of Walton and LeVert; there won't be minutes to spare at the point and there's a ton of depth on the wing. Rahkman may carve out a role as a defensive specialist or off-the-bench scorer against teams that struggle to stop dribble penetration; anything else he provides would be considered a bonus. He should be a solid role player getting 10-15 minutes; the breakout most likely will have to wait until next year.

[Hit THE JUMP.]