Portal Hello: Vlad Goldin
After a somewhat prolonged process, Michigan formally announced the addition of Vlad Goldin last week.
In our internal slack chats I wasn't so subtle in stating that Goldin would be a bigger get in relation to Johnell Davis regardless of what any transfer ranking would have you believe. Seven-footers with true two-way impact aren't typically available for programs such as Michigan, particularly those in the portal. The necessary resources typically exceed what Michigan can reasonably offer.
It would be an understatement to say that I'm excited about Goldin. This is a massive pick-up for the Wolverines, both literally and figuratively.
SCOUTING (Offense)
First and foremost, Vlad is an outstanding finisher at the rim. He converted 72% of his 200 attempts at the rim last season. Goldin routinely finishes over length and through contact.
I have zero doubts as to whether this facet of his game will translate, as the clips above have Vlad finishing over Charleston behemoths James Scott/Ante Brzovic and Coleman Hawkins with relative ease. The volume lends credence to this as well, as a whopping 200 out of 303 total FGAs from Goldin last season were at the rim per Torvik. He's going to own the restricted area.
The thing that really popped on film review is Vlad's impeccable touch. He consistently converts "other twos". Functionally those come in the form of jumphooks, and he's superb using both hands.An ambidextrous 7-footer with elite touch is quite the weapon at the college level. For context, Goldin shot 58.3% on 103 "other two" attempts per Torvik. That is ridiculous efficiency on high volume for a shot type that is generally considered sub-par. Having a 7-foot Tony Parker is hard to visualize, but here we are.
Vlad is also adept as a back-to-the-basket scorer. He has above-average pivoting/footwork, understands where his spots are and is patient in getting to them. He doesn't settle much.
Goldin does really well for himself absorbing initial contact and maintaining balance. He usually gets the better of his defender after that initial contact and leverages his superior size and impeccable touch to convert.
[After THE JUMP: the exact archetype Michigan needs]
Michigan's newest big man is also a good roll-man option in the ballscreen game. While he's not necessarily the lob-threat we often see at the NBA level, Vlad has good hands and has the sheer size/length to finish with authority.
And because of his touch, Goldin isn't restricted to rim finishes when utilized as a roll-man option. Again, the ability to convert floater-esque shot types is such a big weapon. A 7-footer stopping on a dime and converting the off-hand floater through contact here isn't easy at all.
I'm not going to sell you on Vlad being a quintessential stretch big that stresses opposing defenses from three. He's not that. But he does display some shooting prowess as a pick-and-pop threat operating in the midrange.
SCOUTING (Defense)
With the remainder of the roster lacking a true rim-deterrent, Goldin's ability to block and alter shots is absolutely the biggest boost to the team. As a senior with FAU, Vlad posted an impressive 6.8 block rate. Filtering that to top-50 opponents, the block rate jumps up to 10 (!).
He has some versatility as shotblocker. I came away impressed with his ability to turn the hips on the move and still get solid elevation to block shots as we see here.
He's also a presence as a traditional anchor that blocks shots while playing centerfield in drop coverage.
Goldin also has a few wow moments where you think he might have just enough athleticism to carve out a spot on an NBA roster. Here's Vlad blocking a true jumpshot from 6'6 Hayden Hefner of Texas A&M.
The sheer size/length/strength is quite the weapon at the college level as well. Goldin completely overwhelms a 6'6 Brooks Barnhizer here and you can see the massive size discrepancy at play.
Vlad doesn't move well enough to be a legit switch-option and so he's going to be drop-coverage almost exclusively. He projects as one of the better rim protectors in the B10, if he can avoid foul trouble. Goldin posted an impressive 2.7 fouls per 40 minutes in AAC games as a senior, but that number jumped all the way up to 5.9 foul per 40 minutes versus top-50 opponents. In tandem with the lack of agility, this is all the more reason you'll see Dusty May take a conservative defensive approach with Vlad in drop-coverage nearly every possession.
Goldin is a good, not great rebounder. Torvik has him with a 19.5 Dreb rate during his senior season. Against top-50 opponents however, that number drops to 15.2. That is slightly underwhelming accounting for the size, but not red-flag material by any means. He'll need to up the physicality a bit when crashing the glass in the B10.
PROJECTION
This is likely the easiest projection of the season. Vlad Goldin slots in as Michigan's starting center that will play ~30 minutes per game. Based on his versatile paint scoring profile (roll-man, back-to-basket, face-up, dumpoff for floater), we'll see him score in the 13-17ppg range. Defensively, Vlad is going to provide good rim protection to the tune of 1.5+ blocks per game while giving Michigan 6-8 boards a night.
Beyond the statistical projections, Goldin is the guy that connects the dots for Dusty May. The roster has four viable shot-creators in Jones, Donaldson, Gayle and Wolf. A wing-slasher in Gayle. Four perimeter shotmakers/floorspacers in Walters, Jones, Donaldson and Burnett. POA defenders in Jones, Burnett and Gayle. The Wolverines had a glaring hole with respect to rim-protection and rim-finishing. Enter, Vlad Goldin.
Goldin is going to unlock a lot for Dusty May. Offensively, he's the ultimate release valve as a gargantuan human that possesses great touch with both hands in tandem with a giant catch radius. Vlad is going to make life easy for our shot-creators that collapse the defense off the bounce. He's also good enough to create his own offense on lower volumes, particularly against favorable matchups.
From a lineup configuration perspective, Goldin has the exact profile you want next to Danny Wolf. They largely cover the weaknesses for one another and have complimentary skillsets. Vlad isn't a shot-creator/passer by any means, but Wolf can exist next to Goldin because he is a superb passer and a respectable shooter. Danny isn't a great finisher at the rim, and he won't need to be with Goldin patrolling the paint area.
In short, a two-big lineup is viable with a Vlad/Wolf duo. We're seeing this at nearly every level of basketball in the last 7-8 years - bigger is better. The B10 is clearly being dominated by bigs in recent years, with guard-play nearly becoming an afterthought. In the NBA, Golden State was once viewed as game-changing in terms of transitioning basketball to a small-ball, finesse-based game. But that appears to be more of an outlier at this point. Since 2020, we've seen a return to bigger/lengthier, more athletic teams setting the standard. The majority of high-level basketball teams these days are playing multiple bigs at the same time and simply suffocating the opposition.
With all that said, I'm inclined to think Vlad Goldin is perhaps Michigan's best two-way player next season. If the roster is able to generate chemistry and master Dusty May's system (Goldin should help in that regard), Vlad is likely going to be a first/second team B10 type player. He's at the intersection of size/length/strength + experience + opportunity on what projects to be a tournament-caliber team.
Matt, my 10 year old son (aspiring hooper) and I read all of your player breakdowns together, it really helps him understand what is valued in basketball and to understand the more intricate parts of the game. You have us both really excited for Michigan basketball again. Thank you for joining MGoBlog and for all your hard work!!!
Truly appreciate the kind words! My content goal is to merge schematic + data analysis supported by visuals, while conveying it in a manner that is easily comprehensible.
Ultimately, if I can help you enjoy your Michigan hoops experience (and general basketball experience) just a tad bit more.............my job is done.
Thank you for your support and checking out my content. It truly is a privilege to be a small voice for the best sports community on the planet here at MGo.
My pleasure, you'd like my son's hustle, his Motor is Endless! Hope to see you on the podcast soon!
Great compliments! MattEM making a difference for this generation AND the next!
There is that twin thing again. Has to be a psychological play on recruits.
Not to mention how cool it is to have a player named Vlad.
Vlad? Vlad, Vlad... I know two Vlads. There's the bad Vlad... And then there's bunny Vlad, the one that makes cookies!
This post has been up for an hour and no one has made an impaler joke? Do better, MGoBrethren...
With Vlad on the team, last year's team is going to impale by comparison.
it did implode
Nice try, but it would have been funnier after an impale ale or two.
Hey -- that sounds like a good NIL opportunity. I don't always drink beer, but when I do it's Vlad's Impale Ale.
Sometimes a Dad joke is better than a Vlad joke.
I hardly know 'er!
I have to reiterate again that Dusty uses a pretty even rotation, Vlad won't be playing 30 minutes per night in all likelihood. Dusty himself hinted at 26/14 as the split between he and Wolf.
True--but I'm betting that against T50 opponents, the average will be 30.
It'll be brought lower by blowouts and such.
Insert JJ McCarthy joke here.
Color me excited! Beilein seems to have guided us into the best possible scenario going forward.
Woohoo!
My sweet Volodnishka!
I assume you approve of Vlad's Russian guns.
I was wondering when you'd weigh in.
My enthusiasm knows no bounds.
You could say it’s unknown to mankind.
*sobs missing Harbaugh
I'm very excited about Vlad's addition to the roster. He's a game changer.
The bigger issues, though, that nobody is talking about: will the Maize Rage fly a Russian flag at games? We've had Canadian and German flags in the student section to honor other noteworthy international players (also the famous Sweden flag at hockey games).
A Russian flag in colors resembling Ukraine's might make things a bit awkward
Matt, if you could choose, would you rather have Vlad or Hunter?
I am not Matt, but Vlad hands down.
Honestly, that's a really difficult choice. Dickinson is undoubtedly a better offensive engine given his passing prowess. But Goldin is the better rim-protector.
If the context is strictly which player I'd rather have for this particular Michigan roster, I'd lean Goldin. We already have a playmaking big in Wolf, and Goldin's rim protection + finishing ability pairs with that better IMO.
Haven't watched a ton of his film but I've been pleasantly surprised with his fluidity and skill level. He looks like an NBA player to me, there's a little Nikola Vucevic in his game.
As a guy that watches a ton of NBA, I think Zubac (Clippers) is the best case archetype. Really good touch from Zu as well - he shot 62.6 on floaters this season.
I don't know that Goldin has quite the size that Zubac possesses, so the rim protection component might not translate as well...........but it wouldn't surprise me to Goldin get a roster spot in the league as a 2nd rounder/UDFA.
As a point of reference, anyone know Dickinson’s at the rim finishing percentage and rebounding rate?
Dickinson last season with Kansas:
69.2% at the rim on 156 attempts (less efficient than Goldin on half the volume)
26.8 Dreb rate vs top-50 opponents (that's damn impressive in a 14 game sample). It's safe to say Hunter is a significantly better rebounder than Goldin IMO
It's safe to say Hunter is a significantly better rebounder than Goldin IMO
We will see how Goldin holds up in the B1G when it comes to rebounding, but if he makes consistent effort and ID's who to box out, he is already better than Hunter.
Hunter's rebounding stats are a bit of a mirage. When he is dialed in and focused, he gets boards. All too often he doesn't ID who to box out properly. There are also far too many times he doesn't even make an effort allowing much smaller people to play bigger than him. The guy is a legit 7 footer in college. He's going to get boards based on size alone. That does not make him a good rebounder. He was so frustrating to watch because it often times directly impacted the outcome of the game negatively and it showed up in the teams record.
Glad to hear you acknowledge the Wolf/Goldin lineup option that we'll see for at least 5-8 minutes per game. I know Brian is extremely against this and doesn't even want to hear it spoken - but it is coming to a court this fall. I have my doubts too with regard to perimeter defense with both 7-footers on the floor, but I think there are a ton of reasons to try it:
- It isn't like WillT or Walters are actually traditional 4s or good defenders either.
- The value on offense is significant enough to try it against certain teams.
- The B10 has enough "big 4s" to find minutes for it.
- You want to put your best players on the floor and Wolf/Goldin are in that group.
- Even if perimeter defense is going to be sketchy with that lineup, having two legit 7-footers can't be ignored - especially with defensive rebounding (something that I worry about with the other 4s on the roster).
- You convinced Wolf to come play for Michigan and he's not going to play 12mpg behind Goldin - he needs to play like 20mpg this year.
I'm also intrigued to see how Goldin compares to Hunter and Teske. Feels like a bit of a hybrid between them. He's not the offensive player that Hunter is but he's not far off. He's not the defensive player that Teske was but he's pretty close. Now you give him good defensive perimeter players and Wolf to take some pressure off and you're in business.
I think the key here is that Goldin's mobility (even if not great) is probably better than both of them.
I tend to agree with you AC. That pairing is going to see the court dependent on matchup.
As you allude to, the perimeter defense isn't likely to be any better with Walters paired with Goldin, so there's really no downside on that side of the court.
Basketball, in general, is trending back toward size/length to shrink the court these days.
I foresee Wolf with 15 minutes at the 5 and another 10 at the 4.
I approve of this signing
username etc.,
I wouldn't want to do this every offseason, but I must say it's been fun watching Dusty May create a viable basketball team from essentially nothing.
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