May has arrived and with it comes the postseason phase of the baseball and softball seasons. The B1G Softball Tournament is currently ongoing, with Michigan playing their first game later today. Baseball is also down to the wire, the final two weeks of the regular season before the conference tournament takes place over Memorial Day weekend. A lot going on as the Michigan teams enter the home stretch and we will dig into it today: 

Softball: Good, but recently frustrating 

My last piece was introducing softball's big upcoming weekend against Penn State, noting that there were two series left in the regular season and a strong finish was going to be needed to differentiate this team from last year's squad, which bombed down the stretch. The good news is, Michigan mostly proved that this team is different. They swept a solid PSU team in Happy Valley and then came home and took the first game of the series from Ohio State. The win streak was up to 14 at that point and it felt like the hot streak was going to continue forever. Then the OSU series finished in disastrous fashion and dampened the mood significantly. Let's break it down below. 

The Penn State series was a good test for this Michigan team, a matchup between Lauren Derkowski and Bridget Nemeth, two of the better pitchers in the B1G. Nemeth has been probably the second best pitcher in the conference behind only Northwestern's Ashley Miller, so I was heartened to see Michigan have some real success against her. They only got two runs in the first game, but with Derkowski's dominant pitching, it was enough for a 2-0 shutout win. Their next games were better, getting a couple runs off Nemeth in brief work when she came in for relief on Saturday, and then scratched out three runs against her on Sunday in a gutty win in extras. In total, Nemeth surrendered 7 ER against Michigan in 18 winnings of work, a 2.72 ERA for a pitcher whose season ERA is 1.68. That's fine with me. 

Michigan was able to sweep the series because it was a strong weekend for Derkowski and the rest of the pitching staff, but also because the bats battered PSU's non-Nemeth pitchers in the Saturday game. That middle game was a 14-3 bludgeoning, in between the two close, "playoff" style 2-0 and 3-2 wins. Michigan was able to get the sweep because the power continued to deliver, home runs from Maddie Erickson and Keke Tholl on Friday and Sunday, respectively, which are so big against ace level pitchers. During the blowout win in between, Michigan got great hitting from all over, Erickson, Jenissa Conway, and Lilly Vallimont all socking long balls, in addition to another great day for Ella Stephenson. 

[Katelyn Mulcahy]

It was the satisfactory sort of weekend that sent a message that this Michigan team was for real, locking up a top two spot in the B1G Tournament by sweeping a top 40 RPI opponent on the road. The final weekend of the regular season was back at home against Ohio State, a decent but not tournament-bound opponent. The Friday game was a throwback to some of Michigan's mid-April games, where iffy pitching and dreadful defense buried Michigan into a hole and required the offense to dig out of it, which they gladly did thanks to more clutch hitting from Erickson (two huge RBI doubles) and Ella Stephenson (insurance 2 run HR late). 

Heading into the Saturday game, Michigan was only 0.5 games back of Northwestern, needing to win out and have the 'Cats drop one of their last two against Indiana to take the regular season title. The Maize & Blue got the help they needed on Saturday afternoon from the Hoosiers, but that's when things sputtered. Over the final two games of the series, Michigan would put together their two worst offensive performances since February, scoring one total run across the two games. This was a shockingly poor showing at the plate from a team that has been able to sustain lively offensive efforts against a number of different levels of pitching. Michigan's pitching couldn't answer the bell, particularly on Saturday, and they lost the two games 6-0 and 2-1.  

[AFTER THE JUMP: takes and baseball]

What happened? I'm not really sure. The best guess is some combination of "they were due for a stinker" and young hitters crumbling under the pressure of the moment (the stakes of having a chance to win the B1G regular season crown). While Sunday's game was against a pretty solid pitcher (Allison Smith), Saturday's was against Lexi Paulsen, a pitcher with an ERA touching 6.00. Michigan has been able to crush pitchers like Paulsen throughout the past two months, yet on this day they hardly got any action on the bases at all. The same was true on Sunday, just an Ellie Sieler HR producing their only run, one of only two hits the entire day. 

[Bill Rapai]

The team looked very uncomfortable at the plate, swinging early in counts and getting very little hard contact in either game. That visible difference is why I tend to believe it was attributable to nerves of some kind rather than something on the pitching end of things. Which would be understandable, considering most of these hitters are pretty new. Five of the nine hitters in the order were not in the lineup for last season's only real "pressure" game (the BTT first round loss to PSU), most of them because they weren't healthy or in college yet. A lot of players in this Michigan order are going through the stretch run of a good team in college softball for the first time and thus it would be so big to make the NCAA Tournament, because these players need to get experience if they are the future core of a Michigan team that can contend for OKC again. 

I'm not terribly worried about the offense even despite the frustrating performance on Saturday and Sunday. The strides the team has made offensively are still real, upping the team OPS over 100 points from last year even with a dud of a finish to the regular season. They've scored 85 more runs (in three more games played) and have hit 31 more home runs(!!). Their 56 long balls has now tied the 2019 team for the most by a Michigan squad since Sierra Romero departed (in four fewer games played). That all this has happened with a lineup as young as Michigan's is a very positive indicator for the future. All this said, seeing the hitting bounce back in the BTT this weekend and putting up a respectable showing in the NCAAs (assuming they get in) will still be important for me as I evaluate this team moving forward. 

On the pitching side of things, Lauren Derkowski is going to need to deliver for Michigan to do anything in the postseason. With a 2.19 ERA, she's had a solid season and has had dazzling moments. But it's been also been up and down, moments where the command gets away from Derkowski and walks/HBPs become a serious problem. At this point, the #2 option should clearly be Hannah George, even if Erin Hoehn is still getting the non-Derkowski starts. Hoehn misses more bats but hard contact and walks plague her, while George's effective pitch-to-contact style has allowed Michigan to nail down important wins this season. The tandem of Derkowski/George isn't WCWS caliber but it is good enough for the Wolverines to make postseason noise if both are on their game and the offense comes through. 

Softball's postseason picture  

The regular season is in the books, Michigan taking 2nd in the B1G with an 18-5 record. Again, disappointing finish but massive progress was made compared to last season. The first time the team has finished top two in the league since 2021 so you can't complain too much. The Wolverines have the #2 seed in the conference tournament, which produces this bracket: 

Yesterday's results saw Indiana beat Purdue, Minnesota beat Illinois, Maryland beat Penn State, and Wisconsin beat Ohio State. So, Michigan will be doing battle with Maryland this afternoon in the quarterfinals. The time listed is 5:30 PM EST but due to an ongoing rain delay between Northwestern/Indiana, the actual game time will be much later. The Terps are a first time opponent for the Wolverines, with their extra-inning victory over the Nittanys being a pretty big break for Michigan. 

At least on paper, Maryland is a good bit worse than PSU, going 8-15 in conference play vs. PSU's 12-11. Courtney Wyche is the ace for Maryland, but her stats aren't anything Michigan shouldn't be able to handle if the bats are back on their game. And on the flip side, Maryland is towards the bottom of the conference in offensive stats. This is a quarterfinal that Michigan should win. If Michigan gets through today, they will meet either Rutgers or Wisconsin in the semis. Michigan did not see Rutgers in the regular season either but they're a tough foe, a good pitching and hitting team. If Michigan has to go through Rutgers and then Northwestern to win the title, they will have earned it (facing Wisconsin in the semis would be a much easier path). If Derkowski is locked in and the hitters are firing, there's also no reason it can't happen. 

As for the NCAA Tournament picture, Michigan is still in solid shape. They are 37th in RPI which is bubble territory but you want to be roughly inside the top 40 so Michigan is alright. A win today would really help solidify their position but ultimately I think the team is okay. Finishing 2nd in a conference that usually gets 4ish teams in the tournament should get them in and they do have a couple non-con wins over Florida in the back pocket to help their case. The team will probably get in as the 3rd team in a regional unless they go on a run and win the BTT, but that's fine. Considering where this team was at the start of March, making the NCAAs at all is a huge win and would be a significant step in getting the program back on track. 

Jonathan Kim [Jeremy Weine/Michigan Daily]

Baseball: Setting the stage for the regular season's last two weeks 

When I last wrote about Michigan Baseball, the team was heading into their B1G bye week after embarking on a stretch of conference play that saw them routinely take 2 out of 3 to build up a solid conference record. Since that point, the team brought an iffy Long Beach State team to Ann Arbor and managed to scratch out a three-game sweep, both the Saturday and Sunday games being close contests down to the wire. Speaking of down to the wire, Michigan then brought Kent State to town and snatched a thrilling 11 inning win. Last weekend, Michigan went to East Lansing for a three game set with in-state rival MSU and salvaged the Sunday game to take one of three, their first series loss of the B1G season. Most recently, Michigan knocked off CMU yesterday at Ray Fisher by a final score of 9-5. 

The biggest piece of news since my last baseball piece is the return of Jonathan Kim, the Michigan outfielder who was superb as a freshman last season but missed a large stretch of this season, from the second week of March all the way until the last week of April. Kim returned against Long Beach State, easing in by getting one at bat that weekend before resuming regular action last week. Since returning to the starting lineup, Kim is 8/23 with a pair of home runs during the Michigan State series (one being a game-tying homer in game two of the series). Kim's return is huge news for a Michigan lineup that could use his hitting prowess (hit .322/.379/.479/.858 last season), sitting only middle of the conference in OPS during conference play. 

Kurt Barr [@UMichBaseball on Twitter]

Beyond Kim, the offense continues to be led by grad transfer Stephen Hrustich and his team leading 12 homers. He delivered several clutch hits in the third game against LBSU and then drilled a walk-off homer to beat Kent State. Mitch Voit and Collin Priest continue to provide supporting power, with Cole Caruso deserving his own shoutout for popping a grand slam in the first game against Long Beach State, in addition to a big RBI single in the 12th inning to help knock off MSU. I should also mention Mack Timbrook, who leads the team with a .335 batting average, another one of Tracy Smith's useful transfers. 

On the pitching side of things, Michigan has settled into a group of arms they feel comfortable using, going with bullpen days during the midweek games against CMU/Kent State, and then rolling with Kurt Barr, Chase Allen, and Dylan Vigue in the weekend rotation the last two series (Vigue getting help from opener Sachem Ramos). Jacob Denner, Will Rogers, and Ricky Kidd have been sharing the biggest relief innings and while this combination of arms is not special, they have managed to be much stronger in conference play than they were earlier in the season. Amazingly, Michigan now has the #3 team ERA in B1G games sitting at 4.92, a sharp reduction from the ghastly 6.82 mark they were running at in the non-con. The pitching improvement is the biggest reason that the team has managed to salvage their season, 19-8 since starting the year 7-15. 

Looking at the broader picture, we should now turn to the B1G standings: 

Here are the top 11 teams in the B1G standings, cutting out Rutgers/Northwestern because they are so far out of the BTT picture that it doesn't matter. Remember that the top eight teams go to Omaha, so the cutoff right now is between Maryland and Ohio State. Michigan owns the tiebreak over OSU due to taking 2/3 from the Bucks in Ann Arbor, so functionally their lead over the cutoff for the conference tournament is four games. With only six conference games left in the regular season, Michigan is in very strong position to play in the Big Ten Tournament for the 10th consecutive season (not counting 2020/2021, when there was no conference tournament). Especially when there are two teams below them in the standings (MSU/Maryland) who would also have to pass Michigan. It would probably require finishing 0-6 for Michigan to miss and even then, it may not happen. 

So, the Wolverines are in good shape on the negative end of things. How about the positive side... can Michigan win a share of the B1G regular season crown? Possibly, but it would not be easy. You'd probably need to go 6-0 and even then would require help, needing Illinois to drop at least two games and Nebraska to lose at least once. The other two 12-6 teams above Michigan are their upcoming opponents, so no help required there. Of course, the probability of all this happening is low since Michigan is unlikely to go 6-0, especially against the quality of competition they will be facing these last two weekends. Michigan is a solid B1G baseball team this year, but not an elite one. You probably need to play at that sort of a level to sweep Purdue and Indiana. 

As a result, the stretch run of Michigan's season is probably about jockeying for position somewhere between 2nd and 7th in the B1G. Given that the program is still in a rebuild (remember, 19 of 38 players on the roster are freshmen), that's fine. The Boilers come to town this weekend for the final home series of the regular season and they boast one of the conference's best pitching staffs. Across the full season, Purdue is 2nd in team ERA in the conference but are #1 in team ERA in conference games alone. Their strikeout numbers are remarkably pedestrian, but they get outs and don't allow many home runs. That's a good formula! Michigan finishes with Indiana in Bloomington next weekend, a balanced Hoosiers squad that ranks near the top in the conference in both team ERA and team OPS during league play. Will not be easy sledding, but it's not supposed to be easy this late in the year.