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This made me more bullish…

This made me more bullish than I thought it would.

TLDR: Michigan’s defensive scheme is made to stop offenses like this. Disguise coverages and pressures, hold UW to FGs and not TDS. Things Michigan is well-equipped to do

Keon Sabb's open-field…

Keon Sabb's open-field tackle on Bama's last FG drive with about 7 minutes to go. Michigan had Will Johnson on a corner blitz, Sabb came over from his safety spot and made a great play to keep Burton at a 1-2 yard gain when it easily could have been a potential TD if Sabb doesn't make the play.

And yet their center is…

And yet their center is their weak point and being massive should lead to them being more susceptible to the stunts and quickness KG, Jenkings, and Graham utilize to get pressure up the middle

 

Hopefully Big 12 officials…

Hopefully Big 12 officials are more likely to call holding and illegal hands to the face than B1G or SEC officials

Things change if coaches go…

Things change if coaches go public, but that has not happened yet. All that's happened in this story when it comes to coaches is they bitch about it while hiding behind anonymity.

When coaches have been asked publically about, they have either downplayed the issue (Rhule, Deion, etc.), or they've just sort of played it off/didn't comment (Walters, Day, etc.).

Ryan Day can continue to hide behind being anonymous and having these stories continue to leak out to try and keep the story prominent to pressure the B1G. That doesn't change the fact that the NCAA hasn't provided Michigan with an NOA yet. Or that the B1G is unlikely to act based on media stories (Thamel states that in his article). 

If Ryan Day or James Franklin want to come out publically and say all this stuff, more power to them. I hope they do it prior to when Michigan plays them, otherwise it's just continued bitch behavior

 

Why can't OSU replicate what…

Why can't OSU replicate what Illinois did to Michigan offensively? Because OSU isn't built as a power run team with a variety of run schemes. OSU doesn't have the o-line to try and overpower Michigan's line.

Why can't OSU replicate what Illinois did to Michigan defensively? They probably could try, but Michigan also now has film on what Illinois did and can prepare accordingly if OSU tries to do the same thing. Also, OSU has been run on this year...Illinois not so much. The two defenses aren't exactly comparable stylistically. Not to say OSU won't try it

Not that it matters, but I'm…

Not that it matters, but I'm not sure Corum scores on that screen pass even if he stays in bounds. That gif is zoomed in, but Illinois had a safety in the middle of the field closing down the angle. Regardless, it was interesting for him to go out of bounds on his own.

Those edges and linebackers…

Those edges and linebackers sure look like they could use some more weight.

I could be wrong, but this…

I could be wrong, but this game has parallels to when Michigan was going up against OSU with Don Brown as DC. Iowa's defense has been stout as usual, they also haven't played a decent offense yet this year and their main weakness is their LBs' athleticism/speed. 

Michigan could really try and utilize their speed advantage against those LBs and test the edges. Feels like one good chunk run from McCarthy on a read option could really open things up.

Things I did not expect:…

Things I did not expect: Maryland's O-line being much bigger in size across the board than Iowa's. 

Maryland had 3 o-lineman weighing at least 320 pounds and the other 2 were at 305. Iowa's heaviest o-lineman are 308 and their Center is only 283...

Mazi and Mason, time to eat.

Replying to @B-Nut-GoBlue…

Replying to @B-Nut-GoBlue...

Of course Palm had MSU as a 10 seed last year lmao. 

If Michigan finds its way…

If Michigan finds its way into being a 10 seed, the 2 seed they'd get matched up with would probably be one of Duke, Auburn/Kentucky, Kansas, Tennessee, or Villanova. 

Wouldn't it be fun if Michigan could get by their 7 seed counterpart and then be the team that ends Coach K's career? 

The difference of opinion…

The difference of opinion from the likes of Lunardi and Palm compared to metrics or sites like Torvik is fascinating. 

The human prognosticators mostly have Michigan either in the last 4 byes or in the last four in. Meanwhile, Torvik thinks even with a loss to Indiana, Michigan would be a 10 seed. Here are Torvik's scenarios FWIW:

 

Lose to Indiana (17-14): 10 Seed, avoiding the last four byes or the last four in.

Beat Indiana, lose to Illinois (18-14): 7 Seed

Beat Indiana and Illinois, lose to Iowa (19-14): 7 Seed

Beat Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa, lose to Purdue/OSU (20-14): 5 Seed (!!!)

Win the B1G Conference Tournament (21-13): Highest 5 Seed

 

The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, but if Michigan does make a run in the conference tournament they would be adding several Quad 1 wins and could really make a move.

Football always has been and…

Football always has been and always will be a "what have you done for me lately?" sport

And if Gattis does well and…

And if Gattis does well and then moves on to the NFL...it would be because he had success at Michigan which would mean Michigan could then promote from within again (maybe Mike Hart if he's still on staff, etc.). 

Those of you who love…

Those of you who love recruiting and want Michigan to recruit with the likes of OSU, Bama, Clemson, etc...Matt Rhule is NOT the answer. He's on record about how he doesn't like to recruit like other schools and wants to focus on the players he has there and who want to be there from the get-go. 

I would not overthink this…

I would not overthink this and promote Gattis as the next HC. You have a solid assistant coaching staff with momentum, you already have a CO-OC in Moore who can be promoted to OC, and you don't have to completely lose multiple players/coaches because a new HC is brought in with his own system and guys.

Sean Peyton is a ridiculous name to throw out. He's been in the NFL for years, why would he come to college football where the workload is even greater? Lane Kiffin is even more ridiculous, if our fan base couldn't accept Rich Rod then there's no way in fucking hell Lane Kiffin ever could.

I would love Dave Aranda or Matt Rhule if this was happening weeks ago when every other college was going through this. It's too late in the year to hire an outsider and Michigan is coming off the most successful season in 24 years.

Now is not the time to shake things up...just pick the best internal candidate which is likely Gattis and continue to build.

I think the most likely…

I think the most likely route to a Michigan victory would be:

  • Hold Georgia to no more than 17-24 points
  • Win the turnover battle (hoping the defense can force Bennett into a stupid mistake)
  • Win special teams
  • Can't come away empty in the red zone

This will definitely be a tough matchup. The areas of confidence (at least for me) are knowing that Michigan has had extra time to study and form an offensive gameplan against this defense. In a game like this, they might only need 1 or 2 big plays to win.

And while this defense is fantastic, they really have only played one potent offense and it was Alabama. Michigan can't replicate what Bama did, but it's also possible that Georgia's defense is more penetrable than it appears.

Take care of the football, execute particularly well on the plays they gameplanned specifically for this game, and win special teams. 

Remember Georgia hasn't been in a tight game all year. If Michigan can either get a lead or keep it in a tight game, Michigan's experience in close games (particularly for McNamara) could be the difference.

I could understand the…

I could understand the reasoning being not wanting to play a back-to-back when you are missing several players for the World Juniors and have others out due to injury

The reason to freak out…

The reason to freak out would be that Michigan only tests players if they have symptoms. So he would have had to have woken up Christmas morning with symptoms to get tested and be positive. Even with the updated CDC 5-day window, that means the earliest he could be cleared would be the day before the game. Then he would either have to fly in late that night or the morning of the game.

 

Not ideal

All that seems to be getting…

All that seems to be getting confirmed depending on the site is that he did not make the trip to Miami. But even those insiders said they have no idea if he's for sure not playing.

If it's Covid protocol, I suppose it's possible he clears and comes down in time for game. If he doesn't clear, then my guess is Rod Moore steps in as the Nickel and Moten as the safety opposite Hawkins.

Huge loss, especially when Georgia has a great TE that will be even tougher to cover now. Next man up.

 

EDIT: He was confirmed to be at the banquet the team had on 12/19 (there's pictures of him). So if it's Covid he would have had to test positive sometime between 12/20 and 12/24

Speaks volumes to the impact…

Speaks volumes to the impact of Hutchinson and Ojabo, but also the growth of Mazi Smith, Chris Hinton, and the rotation at DT. They've really come along

The good news is we have a…

The good news is we have a few weeks before the Georgia game for Seth to do the OSU defense UFR as well as the UFRs for the Iowa game. 

If he's travelling with the…

If he's travelling with the team then it can't be all that serious, right? And definitely not contagious. What a weird situation

I think it being a Noon game…

I think it being a Noon game is preventing them from doing that since they're doing the last hour of Gameday inside the stadium. The previous two times were both afternoon or night games (MSU 2015 and Wisconsin 2018).

I believe they're setting it…

I believe they're setting it up on the corner closest to the stadium.

I don't know how you can…

I don't know how you can really use any of your points other than the loss to Cincy being a good loss.

"Blew out Wisconsin" -- They were losing late in the game and then got a kickoff return TD and two defensive TDs to blow it open and make it look a lot worse than it was. Purdue is hot and cold this year, solid win but not anything crazy impressive (especially with the game being at home. UNC and UVA may have both had high expectations, but reality is neither team is that good. Again FSU and USC could have high expectations, but in reality they aren't good teams. It doesn't matter what you can normally expect or what pre-season expectations were.

Michigan actually did blow out Wisconsin and it was on the road instead of Neutral site. Michigan also beat Nebraska in a tough environment and Nebraska is probably the best 3-8 team ever (they're ahead of MSU in the SP+ rankings lol). Michigan also beat Penn State on the road who's better than almost anyone Notre Dame beat. And Michigan's loss is probably about equal to Notre Dame's loss when you factor in home/road. 

Correct, a 2-loss team has…

Correct, a 2-loss team has never made it. I just really don't want to see Notre Dame get in at 4 after playing a super easy schedule and skating by. Especially given their recent track record in the playoff. 

I honestly do wonder if…

I honestly do wonder if given your scenario, would OSU make it in at 4 over Notre Dame? If Michigan-OSU is a really close game and everything else you said happens, I could see the committee finally putting in a 2-loss team over a 1-loss Notre Dame who beat NOBODY and lost their only tough game.

Reality check for the team…

Reality check for the team and season expectations. They still have the talent to make a good run, but the freshmen will have to grow up quickly and the team will have to find its style and chemistry. 

I still like where this team can potentially go, now it's time for Juwan and the coaching staff to tune some things.

That's what makes the sport…

That's what makes the sport so beautiful. An outside just sees 11 guys trying to smash into eachReply other repeatedly. Football is the ultimate team sport and there is so much that goes on during every play. 

Also, gotta disagree with the OP and the idea of just sitting back and allowing OSU to run. OSU has dominated the last two games particularly because they've been able to get whatever they want on the ground. While you don't want those WRs breaking open downfield for big plays and TDs, you also can't allow OSU to get 5-7 YPC like they have the past couple years.

It will take a total team effort defensively to slow down the Buckeyes. When Michigan gets OSU to a 3rd down, they HAVE to get off the field. Try and get them into 3rd and long and then mix your coverages and try to get that pass rush home.

I think it's more likely it…

I think it's more likely it's a week where the McCarthy package is used more to try and punish crashing ends.

Pass D doesn't just mean…

Pass D doesn't just mean coverage, it's how the defense is against the pass lol. The fact that Michigan has two great ends and has been good most of the year getting pressure makes your pass defense better.

Also, don't act like Michigan's coverage has been terrible. They haven't faced the toughest WRs yet, but they still look markedly better than last year and at least aren't getting burned routinely. Hopefully that keeps up

We all want a healthy Corum…

We all want a healthy Corum since he's one hell of a player. But with Penn State's weakness being their DTs and running up the middle, I think it's more of a Haskins kind of game. Corum would be testing those edges where Penn State's strength is

Hey Alex, with Penn State…

Hey Alex, with Penn State being a base Cover 3 team, do you see opportunities for Michigan to hit some soft coverage on the outside? Seems like Michigan is more than willing to throw those quick outs or short hitches against Cover 3.

Those type of plays could be pivotal in a lower scoring, field position type of game.

Am I just crazy or do I see…

Am I just crazy or do I see a big advantage for Michigan up front. Slade is 315 pounds, but their other tackle is 285. And both ends are around 250 pounds...

All and Schoonmaker are around the same size as those ends...

Michigan has the definitive size advantage up front.

Rumor has it the ref thought…

Rumor has it the ref thought he saw #97 on the jersey, but once he saw it was #96, he threw the flag

If they can play the…

If they can play the complete opposite style of defense effectively after going the entire season doing something else, more power to them.

If they're going out of their way and playing an unfamiliar or new scheme, then they'll probably be more prone to busts or mistakes. 

Bottom line is Michigan's offense is a bad matchup for MSU because what MSU wants to force you to do is exactly what Michigan has done well this year. If Michigan is forcing MSU to change their defense to stop it, I think that's good news.

Yeah as much as I love Moody…

Yeah as much as I love Moody, I only want to see him tomorrow kicking PATs. Hoping they have these red zone issues figured out or have some cool plays they've been scheming for this game

So essentially MSU's defense…

So essentially MSU's defense has taken advantage of forcing teams to drive the length of the field by playing mistake-free and then either forcing a mistake or getting a big stop when needed.

I suppose the good news is that matches up poorly for MSU. Michigan appears to be a team that plays relatively mistake free and doesn't beat itself. Can't have any turnovers Saturday...take care of the ball, get into scoring position, and then get into that end zone instead of relying on Moody.

Per Chris Balas, Michigan…

Per Chris Balas, Michigan will be wearing maize pants

Fair enough. I'm at least…

Fair enough. I'm at least hoping if the holding occurs on 3rd down and it allows Thorne to pick up the first down, they call it. 

If it's an incompletion or whatever, I guess I'm fine with them keeping their hands in their pocket. But man if Hutchinson gets mugged allowing Thorne to complete a 50 yard bomb to Nailor or Reed...

At least the weather forecast is calling for 15-20mph winds

Please god have whoever the…

Please god have whoever the ref crew is actually call holding when Hutchinson is dragging 2 guys with him. In the name of fairness

Both defenses have a bend…

Both defenses have a bend-don't-break style. As with every game, the team that takes care of the ball and converts yards into points will win. Let's hope Michigan has figured out their red zone issues and can punch it in.

Goes in line with my…

Goes in line with my thinking. Stop the run and force MSU into obvious passing downs and then let that pass rush do its thing like it has done to every team. 

They'll have to be able to take a punch here or there when MSU schemes up a great play or gets a chunk. But limit those and stay composed. Then on offense it's all about converting yards into points.

No team is handicapping…

No team is handicapping their offense because they're afraid of starting a QB controversy, stop it.

Yes so that rules it out of…

Yes so that rules it out of being a night game. It's either a Noon or 3:30 pm start

Man the BPONE is so strong…

Man the BPONE is so strong here. I don't know how any reads this and is discouraged about Michigan's prospects against MSU. 

Yes, of course McNamara had a bad game and Michigan needs better QB play. But he's capable of doing it and showed he can make plays when it matters like he did against Wisconsin and Nebraska.

My biggest takeaway is that it appears Michigan is starting to utilize different run schemes depending on what the defense is doing. If Seth is right about Michigan using the bye week to work on that like they did in 2019, I'm encouraged. 

And to anyone concerned about the RPS or lackluster passing performance, remember that Michigan did something similar against Rutgers before going on the road and putting 38 points on Wisconsin.

It's impossible to shut off…

It's impossible to shut off every threat so I guess it depends on what they'd rather give up. Personally I would rather allow MSU to throw screens than to allow Reed in 1-on-1 coverage against Gray/Turner/Green. But that would also assume Michigan is on their game defending screens.

Agreed. The difference is…

Agreed. The difference is Michigan's passing game will rely more on the short and intermediate (thinking we could see more of the TE and RB passes like the past few week) while MSU's passing game is mostly play-action deep shots to Reed and Nailor.

The key is stopping the run for both teams. I think Michigan is more equipped to run the ball because they've been able to do it to everyone including Wisconsin who has the best run defense Michigan will face all season. MSU's o-line is shakier and they've struggled to run in games against good defenses.