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Interesting name that popped…

Interesting name that popped up yesterday is Connor Essegian from Wisconsin. He had a bit of a sophomore slump but was excellent as a freshman.

The issue of course is that as a sophomore he will potentially require a bit more work to get in. He may be the rare type to have the affinity for Michigan to do this however.

Specifically, the NCAA…

Specifically, the NCAA grades "progress towards the degree" for undergrads against a standard of finishing the degree within 5 years. In addition, freshmen are exempt from this requirement. The rule Michigan adds is to limit the number of transferrable credits to 60. Generally for basketball, this translates to:

  • No issue for freshmen
  • Sophomores need to successfully transfer 48 credits, or commit to making up the difference in summer school
  • Juniors must successfully transfer the full 60 credits, plus commit to making up an additional 12 credits (total of 72)
  • Seniors with no degree are a non-starter (would require 96 credits when you can only transfer 60)

I wouldn't write off all sophomores, but you can see how juniors are difficult to get in, as asking them to commit to summer school when they may not have to elsewhere is a challenge.

Football is helped by the semester divide here. For football, players can get a head start on their careers through early enrolling (and therefore have more credits ready to transfer when the time comes). And football gets a full semester in addition to summer school to make up any differences, whether to complete the degree (like LaDarius Henderson) or get to the appropriate number above (like Myles Hinton).

I think you're on the right…

I think you're on the right track with the comparison to working at the NBA level, but maybe in a slightly different way. I think Howard tried to coach Michigan like an NBA coach works. He favored certain players (i.e. giving preference to Jett and others) and generally neglected the bottom of the roster. At the NBA level, you have to placate your stars or they will walk. And washed veteran free agents and G-Leaguers are essentially free, so you can always pick up a player to sit on the bench.

However at Michigan, the first slowly, then quickly deteriorated our culture, while the second ensured we never had a solid bench.

Then, with regards to roster construction, Howard tried to build a team with:

  • A maestro point guard
  • Versatile scoring wings
  • Elite post scorer

It takes quite a long time to develop the maestro PG, and once we got on the grad transfer train, it was hard to get off. We put all our eggs in the Dug basket, which fell apart this year when he became more of a scorer than passer.

Versatile scoring wings are a very hot commodity, and at the college level there is a low floor when you go for this approach. A big issue we had was that we could not find wings that could do all we wanted - score, defend, rebound, and pass. Instead of picking a skill, we ended up with players that can do none.

An elite post player is the ultimate luxury in college. We were very lucky to have one in Dickinson. I can't fault Juwan too much for Dickinson deciding to walk, but we really didn't have any backup plan. Reed was nowhere near ready to fill that role this year.

Overall, it seems like Howard wanted to build his roster around some of the rarest, most in-demand skill sets. The team ended up looking awful as we failed to either attract or retain that talent and were forced to turn to subpar players to fill those giant gaps.

I think the big thing is…

I think the big thing is that the quick game is something that requires a ton of reps to get right. And Michigan generally uses those reps in the run game in practice and games. For JJ specifically that's an (correctable) issue at the NFL level, but this is something Michigan observers like SpaceCoyote have noted.

Benkert does great stuff. I…

Benkert does great stuff. I don't even play Madden, but I love watching his Madden videos because he explains real football/quarterback play very well. He does a great job explaining coverages and how to attack them.

The downside of our low…

The downside of our low attrition culture where we have had excellent roster management (transfer portal usage and stocking overall numbers to prevent weak areas) and a high quality of play is that it's incredibly difficult to break through for playing time. This is even more exaggerated on the OL. El-Hadi is a Top 100 recruit who will be in his 4th year out of HS when he earns a starting job. Gentry will be in his 3rd year after his mission (5th year total). That level of patience only appeals to a select few, especially when it comes at an NIL discount.

And we did pick up Andrew Sprague and Blake Frazier who are very highly regarded in this year's class.

The opt out issue is way…

The opt out issue is way more than just the top players. Players across the board are only participating in the events they're good at. And even then, it's about avoiding downside risk as your linked article said. For example, Roman Wilson didn't run a shuttle or 3 come after claiming off the charts numbers via the Freaks List last year. Why do anything to change a positive opinion?

https://x.com/JBudDavis/

Insider sites have said he's…

Insider sites have said he's considering coming back. In the new age, declaring is not as settled as before, as college players are allowed to have agents in some fashion anyway, and paying back a couple months' worth of agent pay isn't as difficult.

It's probably Flory Bidunga

It's probably Flory Bidunga

Me reaping: upvoting…

Me sowing: upvoting articles like this every year

Me reaping: seeing costs go up due to ever increasing demand

Wow I didn't realize Lathan…

Wow I didn't realize Lathan Ransom has been at Ohio St for that long

Zenitz also reported the…

Zenitz also reported the Adegoke news. In that case, Adegoke had yet to inform his coach however. In this case, Morgan has told the team at Louisiana he is leaving. And I am much more confident in our ability to win a bidding war with Louisiana than with the Houston Texans.

Unfortunately for us, he has…

Unfortunately for us, he has a strong national reputation due to his recruiting ranking and his great play in the playoffs (especially the championship game). Also, since he was a highly recruited prospect from IMG, he already has relationships with a lot of elite programs. With Moore and Paige coming back, his role is a bit reduced this year than expected. I'm sure other programs have been hammering him with big NIL offers and a starting spot.

It sucks, and crushes our safety room for '25, but it's possible he is looking for a way to get to the NFL by then anyway.

Great idea. We'll call it…

Great idea. We'll call it Memory Lane. We'll buy recipes from closed local restaurants, sell merch, etc. Nostalgia is so hot right now.

Yep Sheridan kept things…

Yep Sheridan kept things going in 2020 before he saw the Wile E Coyote dropoff in 2021. A reunion could be successful, especially with better players in place at Bama as opposed to Indiana (where depth of talent really hurt them).

Sam Webb discussed it today…

Sam Webb discussed it today if people are looking for a source:

247sports

The Milroe thing is a joke…

The Milroe thing is a joke lol

Chip is also in…

Chip is also in consideration for the Seattle Seahawks OC job. Macdonald is also looking at Alabama OC Ryan Grubb and Lions Passing Game Coordinator Tanner Engstrand.

It's an interesting contrast…

It's an interesting contrast to Herbert who had similar factors.

  • He had a nephew coming in that we went quite out on a limb for
  • Highest paid S+C coach
  • Reduced role in NFL
  • Recently signed big extension
Hoodjer is out

Hoodjer is out

'15 OSU messed around a…

'15 OSU messed around a bunch before turning it on vs us and ND. So their overall SP+ numbers aren't that great even if their team at their peak was elite.

I played with some numbers …

I played with some numbers (forced a linear model onto BillC's returning production percentages) and got the following for implied lines for next year:

  • -19.5 vs Fresno State 
  • +3.5 vs Texas
  • -26 vs Arkansas State
  • -18.5 vs USC
  • -18.5 vs Minnesota
  • -12.5 at Washington
  • -20.5 at Illinois
  • -30 vs Michigan State
  • +6.5 vs Oregon
  • -28 at Indiana
  • -18.5 vs Northwestern 
  • +7 at Ohio St

And some theoreticals all on a neutral field:

  • +6.5 vs Penn St
  • +12 vs Georgia
  • -5 vs Bama
Only 2.6% of teams fall…

Only 2.6% of teams fall under 40%, but they fall by an average of 9.8 points.

Hey that's us!

So if Michigan is 10 points worse, our SP+ score would fall from 31.3 to 21.3. This would put us ranked 8th if things shake out similarly to last year.

I'll take it (as long as the sky doesn't fall any further).

The quality on the BreakingT…

The quality on the BreakingT stuff was good? I'd heard mixed things unfortunately which stopped me from pulling the trigger.

Dickinson was underpaid at…

Dickinson was underpaid at Michigan. Contacts in the DC area connected to Maryland/Georgetown tampered him into the portal by offering him a substantial raise. Once he hit the open market, Kansas came in and put together a better pitch (money + winning) than anyone else.

Michigan potentially could have staved off his portal entry by paying him more. But if it ever came down to our pitch vs Kansas's, he'd choose Kansas.

I'm pretty sure Torvik…

I'm pretty sure Torvik/Kenpom don't take into account Dug's absence. How many more points is that worth? 8?

I think it's more that a…

I think it's more that a Cali kid doesn't want to live in Tuscaloosa if he's not getting coached by the GOAT

Florida or LSU

https://www…

Florida or LSU

https://www.on3.com/teams/florida-gators/news/jameer-grimsley-focused-on-2-decision-coming-soon/

Tom Lou (I know, I know)…

Tom Loy (I know, I know) says OSU or USC:

https://twitter.com/TomLoy247/status/1748360738668712167?s=20

 

I think it's more to mark…

I think it's more to mark their departure than to really convey a decision. Henderson and Barrett also posted "declarations" even though they're both out of eligibility too.

Agreed. When confronted with…

Agreed. When confronted with a similar situation on the OL last year, we stacked our roster with Henderson, Nugent, and Hinton, who all proved crucial in our title. 

Thanks for sharing. We've…

Thanks for sharing. We've too often conflated two things with regards to NIL:

  1. Overall payroll
  2. Payroll allocation (i.e. talent retention vs talent acquisition, whether via recruiting or portal)

Michigan made a bold move towards funding retention over acquisition, but that is only a payroll strategy and can only do so much to make up for an overall payroll deficit.

This shows we successfully pulled off the championship by playing moneyball. I think the university agrees however that it is incredibly difficult to maintain that level of success, especially once others copy your strategy.

You can buy the prints…

You can buy the prints directly from the Daily:

https://store.pub.umich.edu/

Probably the biggest…

Probably the biggest omission is Kris Jenkins. Is he considering a return?

(No subject)

I also wouldn't be surprised…

I also wouldn't be surprised if Minter replaced Mac in Baltimore or became his DC elsewhere.

This is a Borges observation…

This is a Borges observation so I can't take credit, but look at these two plays.

First, with only a TE/RB to one side, watch how Washington defends with a CB on the TE and a LB on the RB:

https://youtu.be/rPK8HJ4lH9s

Then, look at this play with Michigan lined up similarly. We send Edwards deep instead of to the flat. Imagine a LB trying to cover this:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?si=CcoCKH_7n2UlNeVy&v=UUucfFHz9Rw&feature=youtu.be&t=6m38s

 

When they say money doesn't…

When they say money doesn't matter, they mean not jumping for a marginally better offer when they're getting a substantial amount (say $50k+) from the school they prefer.

Michigan struggles when we offer substantially less compared to our competitors.

Well based on how the…

Well based on how the article is written, Wiltfong has already seen Underwood's commitment video. And Wiltfong has not moved his crystal ball from LSU...

Sorry I wasn't clear:…

Sorry I wasn't clear: Alabama is more consistent now than they were earlier in the year. See their FEI game scores:

  1. 1.86 vs MTSU
  2. 0.59 vs Texas
  3. -0.01 at USF
  4. 1.27 vs Ole Miss
  5. 0.84 at Miss St
  6. 0.93 at TAMU
  7. 0.07 vs Arkansas 
  8. 1.08 vs Tennessee 
  9. 1.66 vs LSU
  10. 1.49 at Kentucky
  11. 0.52 at Auburn
  12. 1.28 vs Georgia

The FCS game is excised, but you can see in the data that Auburn was a step back for a team that more consistently played its best. 

Here's the same for Michigan:

  1. 1.28 vs ECU
  2. 1.80 vs UNLV
  3. 0.99 vs Bowling Green
  4. 1.51 vs Rutgers
  5. 2.34 at Nebraska
  6. 1.73 at Minnesota
  7. 1.74 vs Indiana
  8. 1.96 at Michigan State
  9. 1.04 vs Purdue
  10. 1.57 at Penn St
  11. 0.76 at Maryland
  12. 1.54 vs Ohio St
  13. 1.21 vs Iowa

Michigan's 5 best performances were before November 1. If that team shows up tomorrow, we'll win easy.

The more likely scenario is that these teams are who they were the last month of the season, which is roughly evenly matched.

I tried to calculate…

I tried to calculate something similar using FEI and I got Michigan -0.5.

The big reasons are:

  • Michigan's offense has lost a step since the Michigan St game
  • Alabama's been more consistent of late.
My guess at the moment is an…

My guess at the moment is an 11-9 B1G record would be required. That's based on some quick math of Torvik's WAB measure.

One more thing: we need to…

One more thing: we need to be successful using play action. McCarthy had a banner day with play action vs TCU last year (that was a large part of how we were able to come back from the early deficit).

Unfortunately we've almost entirely gone away from it this year. The comparison to the other playoff teams is stark:

https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1740780854618828899?s=20

 

Key points for Michigan:

Key points for Michigan:

  1. Utilize the opening scripted drives to take an early lead
  2. Control the pace by limiting big plays from Milroe
  3. Grind your way to a good enough success rate on the ground

You had a good point above about the game state. Michigan is really uncomfortable playing from behind or playing in a shootout. It'll be key to get to an early start. I'd watch for us to go for some chunk plays with the reverses, flea flickers, and QB run on our scripted drives.

My #3 above is the big one to me. Can Michigan run the ball to move the chains? I do not anticipate much contribution from our passing game in that regard- we will be able to hit the TEs/RBs a bit, but it's hard to make a living doing that. I think we will go heavy on gap schemes to get their LBs in the wrong spots.

A Craig Ross solo show would…

A Craig Ross solo show would have been a ratings smash.

Elite prognostication by…

Elite prognostication by Seth last spring:

Flight Risk Assessment: High. Rapid-fire commitments and decommitment suggest that he and his support network are paying close attention to opportunities, and are highly reactive when a good one comes along. Also this isn't a guy getting on the patience train:

”I think about it every day. I think about how they’re going to develop me as soon as I get up there. How I’m just going to work by butt off in the offseason to make a name for myself. Also, to make sure I get on the field as fast as I can in the most efficient way as possible.”

Plenty of M gear under the…

Plenty of M gear under the tree this year:

  • Rose Bowl/CFP hoodie
  • Michigan Mom sweatshirt 
  • HAIL T-shirt 
  • Fluffy M socks
  • Block M cookie cutter
  • Michigan v Everybody wristband

Merry Christmas!

He is going to attempt to…

He is going to attempt to get a waiver for 2019, when he was at Alabama and played in 5 games. He got only 2 snaps in multiple games that year, so he was incredibly close to meeting the 4 game redshirt max.

Personally, I think he should just move on. He already got an extra year in college due to the blanket COVID waiver in 2020. However, this is one to watch as some think if he takes it to court, the NCAA's 4 year eligibility limit may come into question.

The Chargers also paid their…

The Chargers also paid their last coach $4million per year. Are they really gonna triple that to get Harbaugh?

He was in Miami palling…

He was in Miami palling around with Stephen Ross supposedly