Thoughts on CSU/Betting
Hey all,
This is the week I begin surveying and locking in week 1 picks. Last year I lost too much on parlays with 8+ teams (stupid I know) so I'm changing my strategy and putting more money on Michigan in every week since I obviously watch and follow the team.
The current spread for CSU @ Michigan is -27.5.
In my opinion this seems like easy money, no? I understand that Colorado State sucked last season and that does not necessarily correlate to the following year. They have a new air raid offense. A bunch of players followed Norvell to CSU. However, even if Michigan wants to take the ultra conservative approach and run the damn ball the entire game combined with the defense making mistakes in the first game out, there's just no way this game is that close.
I think Harbaugh splits the QB reps and both Cade and JJ go for big plays to try and solidify their position on the team, we blow CSU out of the building and the hype train is full steam ahead.
What say you?
August 24th, 2022 at 3:55 PM ^
The fact that this will be a continuation of the QB battle with a roughly 50/50 snap split helps remove any doubt in my mind that we'll cover. I can't imagine CSU scoring more than 14 and I see us scoring around 50.
August 24th, 2022 at 3:57 PM ^
I hear ya. I am riding -27.5
August 24th, 2022 at 4:16 PM ^
If it's 75 and sunny with little wind I agree. I'd wait until 2-3 days before the game to lay that many points tho.
August 24th, 2022 at 4:34 PM ^
I won an 8-team parlay last football season. Put $1.50 on it and won $392. I don't do the crazy parlays very often but this one luckily paid off.
To your question, I will probably take Michigan -27.5. I think the team wants to make a statement out of the gate. And CSU is bad enough to take the beating.
August 24th, 2022 at 4:54 PM ^
I always take the points in games like this for UM. My memory isn’t perfect, but they are generally atrocious against the spread with lines this high.
August 24th, 2022 at 5:15 PM ^
"...this seems like easy money, no?"
This is the phrase that helped to build Vegas
August 24th, 2022 at 8:27 PM ^
I was planning to say the same thing but didn't want to be a buzzkill.
August 24th, 2022 at 5:23 PM ^
Watch out for that back door cover
August 24th, 2022 at 5:34 PM ^
I think the over is a good bet too. Davis Warren is going to want prove something too! Just put in a bet for Nebraska to cover 13 against Northwestern. If Nebraska covers I win some cash. If Northwestern wins, Scott Frost is getting fired! Hopefully not a close win for Nebraska.
August 24th, 2022 at 5:49 PM ^
Not partaking in Week 0 action but for Week 1 I’ve got UM covering that spread, Illinois +4.5 against IU and TCU -10.5 against Colorado. I’d like to think that parlay will get me off on the right foot but who the hell knows.
August 24th, 2022 at 8:46 PM ^
I like those picks.
Got Illinois at +5.5 a few weeks ago. They get a tuneup game against Wyoming this weekend which I think is a huge advantage.
August 24th, 2022 at 6:05 PM ^
I think we'll cover, but I wouldn't call it "easy money." There are plenty of non-con wins during the Harbaugh era that have felt comfortable and lopsided, but we didn't cover. MTSU in 2019, SMU in 2018, Cincy in 2017, and UNLV in 2015. That doesn't even count the scares like Army in 2019, Air Force in 2017, and CU in 2016.
A bet on this game is a bet on our defense. Everyone knows we'll score 40+ no problem, but the question is whether the defense will give up a few touchdowns -- or whether they'll help the offense score 50+ with turnovers/field position.
August 24th, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^
That's why this game you bet the over on pts. Most books have it set at 57.5
August 25th, 2022 at 12:34 AM ^
Until you realize CSU's offense is a shit show and they score 3.
I would bet Michigan over whatever points they have.
August 24th, 2022 at 7:56 PM ^
27.5 should be easy, but this game easily hits the over.
All the overs are set way low early season so the public wins and baits them into betting the same way all year.
I'd take msu covering the spread against wmu and mich on the over for total points.
Same thing in Ohio state game. That game goes over 60 pts easy.
It has 48 to 52 - 21 type look.
Non conference season is an easy time to win moneyline parlays I'd stick to those if you are wanting gauranteed wins.
You may need to front more money at first but you will still win.
August 24th, 2022 at 7:59 PM ^
Now is the time to do large parlays and win easy.. non conf is nearly gauranteed money if you do moneylines. Even with bad odds you can make them big enough or front large amounts of money
August 25th, 2022 at 12:30 AM ^
We scored 42 on OSU and honestly their defense might be better than CSU (maybe). Im not sure how CSU could score more than 21? Seems like an easy cover with quality QB play deep into the game unlike most teams that are grinding it out.
Harbaugh will want to see passes into the 4th quarter.
August 25th, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^
Vegas is betting on a 42-43 to 15 game based on the spread and over/under. That sounds about right to me. Last year they opened against Western Michigan 47-14--dominated on the field more than the score. I could see the defense giving up 14-21 getting their feet wet. I could see the offense keeping everything close to the vest with minimal throws, particularly after halftime and just minimizing snaps and going home. Arguably, outside of winning, the main goal of the game is to walk out of the stadium healthy.