Thinking out aloud about why James Franklin's seat is not as hot as Jim's
This post is not about arguing for Harbaugh one way or another. Not interested in beating that dead horse. This post is about James Franklin. I'm interested in beating that fresh horse. Because I don't get why it's as fresh as it is.
I have a lot of PSU friends and while they are bitterly disappointed in this season, the notion that Franklin is on the hot seat has not even crossed their minds. Obviously there is one huge difference which is their 2016 B10 title and win over OSU. But when you look at the big picture performance and trajectory of the program, there really isn't much difference.
This Season: Push
PSU is winless. Michigan is 1-2. Both have embarassing losses as 3 TD+ favorites. Disaster all around.
Overall Win %: UM
UM: 48-20 (0.706), PSU: 56-26 (0.683)
vs Ohio State: PSU
PSU is 1-5. Has the fluky upset win in 2016. They never get blown out by OSU. Two heartbreaking 1 pt losses.
Big Game Performance: Push
Coming into this season:
PSU is 9-14 against the Top 25 (39.1%); UM is 10-14 (41.7%)
PSU is 1-8 on the road vs. Top 25 teams; UM is 1-7
PSU is 2-9 vs. Top 10 teams (18.2%); UM is 2-12 (14.3%)
PSU is 15-13 overall on the road (53.6%); UM is 15-9 (62.5%)
Head-to-Head: UM/Push
UM is 3-2 including a +50 combined scoring margin. But it's close obviously, since the home team usually wins.
Recruiting: UM
UM has a slight but definitive edge in terms of average rankings. I'm 95% sure and don't feel like looking it up.
Silverware: PSU
PSU: B10 title, 3-3 in bowls, 2-1 in New Year's 6 games*
UM: 1-4 in bowls, 0-2 in New Year's 6 games*
*Will note that PSU has wins over Memphis and Washington while UM has had much tougher opponents.
Conclusion
Again, this post is not to defend Harbaugh. Seems like most people want him out and I'm trending towards that camp as well. The statistics I presented don't fully capture some of the downward trajectory we're on and the manner in which we lose some of these games. But I am still fascinated by how less of a hot seat James Franklin is on.
When you take away one of two plays from 2016--the fortuitous PSU blocked kick return for a TD vs OSU or a close 4th down in OT in The Game, UM has a push or an advantage in all these categories. But I don't think most in our fanbase or their fanbase or the national media realize that's the case. Sure, hypotheticals are for losers, obviously. That's not the point.
But I think there are two things that are just as important as the two plays in 2016--expectations and national coverage. It's incredible how much more we're in the national media than PSU. Franklin doesn't get a weekly segment from Paul Feinbaum or Cowherd and Joel Klatt highlighting his failures. And our fanbase has bigger expectations. Which is weird. I personally perceive UM and PSU as a similar calibre of program historically. The national media might rank UM as a more "prestigious" program but PSU fans certainly see themselves as on a similar level to us.
So I fully expect fewer pitchforks to be out in Happy Valley because of 2016 and performance against OSU, etc. But is anybody else surprised by the degree of difference in mood between the two programs? Is Franklin a season or two away from being where Harbaugh is if things don't change?
November 11th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^
He won the Big Ten, he beat OSU, he had lower expectations coming in, and Penn State is not quite the program Michigan is supposed to be. Simple
November 11th, 2020 at 3:37 PM ^
His expectations from year 3 to 7 of his tenure have not at all been different from Jim's if you ask PSU fans.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:42 PM ^
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November 11th, 2020 at 3:46 PM ^
Penn State is not quite the program Michigan is supposed to be.
Don't tell that to a Penn State fan.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^
He won the Big Ten, he beat OSU
The thing that pisses me off about this most is that we destroyed PSU that year, they beat OSU on a fluke, and we lost to OSU on fluke call by biased refs. Like yes, they technically won the B1G but it was flukey in all regards. The best team in the B1G did not win the title in 2016
November 11th, 2020 at 5:23 PM ^
I would like to sign up for one of these flukey big ten championships
November 11th, 2020 at 6:12 PM ^
We can sign you up, but is seems that this gentleman named "OSU" has the next several slots. Wisconsin is trying to reserve one as well, but never seems to show up.
November 11th, 2020 at 7:05 PM ^
We were a coin toss away from a non flukey one.
There is plenty to argue Harbaugh should go, but no one can doubt that, between Blake O'Neill and the spot, he has had some genuine bad luck. Of course you can say we should have had max protect yadda yadda, but it still doesn't change the fact that the outcome was insanely unlucky.
So, just as a general reminder, it can be true that Harbaugh has had bad luck and simultaneously underperformed without the two things being correlated.
It's also possible without the bad luck things now are better, and not just in how things feel sort of way but in recruiting and on field performance. But that's a moot point.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:52 PM ^
"he had lower expectations coming in, and Penn State is not quite the program Michigan is supposed to be"
At first I didn't agree with this, but maybe it's true. Since Paterno got there decades ago, I'd have to say PSU was a slightly better program than Michigan's for most of that time. He won 2 NCs and IIRC he had at least 2 (3?) other teams that went undefeated but didn't win an NC. Having said that, it does seem PSU lost some Notre Dame-like cache after going to the Big Ten. Michigan and OSU get played up more because it's their conference and they're the big rivals. PSU gets to skirt by with less attention. Obviously there's the whole JoePa scandal as well, but I don't really think that affected how people see PSU as a blueblood or not.
November 11th, 2020 at 4:03 PM ^
Solid explanation.
BTW, "cache" means stash (gold, money); "cachet" means prestige.
November 11th, 2020 at 7:37 PM ^
Good catch.
November 11th, 2020 at 4:22 PM ^
Bear on mind that JoPa (not unlike ND) feasted on weaker schedules with showcase games spread out. Such was the life of an east coast independent. It’s worth noting that the big ten has not been a cakewalk for PSU.
November 11th, 2020 at 5:07 PM ^
Couldn't you have just said like Notre Dame so I didn't have to re-read that double negative? Haha. Just kidding you.
November 11th, 2020 at 9:08 PM ^
Good point, and also goes back to how it's really wins and losses that matter along with beating your rivals sometimes.
November 12th, 2020 at 7:00 AM ^
The 30 years before Jopa started wearing sideline diapers, PSU was a better program than UM. It has a better recruiting base with no significant in-state competition. I'd say expectations as a blue-blood are the same.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:36 PM ^
He is a terrible coach, but a great program CEO.
His coordinators move on to bigger jobs.
He has wins against his rivals.
It actually makes total sense.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:40 PM ^
"His coordinators move on to bigger jobs." How does this have anything to do with him being on the hot seat? Why would PSU fans care about Moorhead being Oregon's OC right now?
It really does seem that single win against OSU is doing a lot of lifting. Maybe all the lifting. Would be nice if we didn't play Wisconsin every year and had played UCF instead of Alabama in the bowl game.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:43 PM ^
That's another way to state what I'm trying to say. That single win should do a lot of heavy lifting. But I'm just surprised it's doing THAT much heavy lifting when you look at all else.
November 11th, 2020 at 4:01 PM ^
I'm not sure it is actually doing THAT much heavy lifting. As noted, while he won that game, he also went on to win the B1G conference. He has a conference championship, which is some nice hardware, especially for a program that was nearly nuked to oblivion just a short time ago.
Moreover, he's 3-3 in bowls, 2-1 in NY6 games. That means, for half of the years he's been the coach there, the entire PSU fanbase enjoyed a relatively happy and possibly optimistic offseason. They could feel good about the direction of the program, especially with the two NY6 wins. That's pretty meaningful when the offseason is ~8 months out of the year. They ended on a high note.
Also, they haven't been truly embarressed on national TV, losing to their rivals and other bowl competitors the past few seasons. Indeed, our fanbase loves to remember the shalacking we put on PSU the year they won the conference championship, but we have many more embarressing and heartbreaking examples over the past few years.
Last but not least, UM has created so much fanfare around the program with the hiring of Harbaugh, the satellite camps, the Signing of the Stars, etc. etc. etc. We create "revenge tour" slogs, murder wolf, and other things and then mass market that to the nation. We constantly proclaim, "we are back" only to have things crash down each and every year.
All of those factors contribute greatly to Franklin's position relative to Harbaugh's IMO. Franklin has improved the psychology of the PSU fanbase! Harbaugh has not...
November 11th, 2020 at 3:48 PM ^
Or it would be nice if we could beat Wisconsin at Wisconsin for once in nearly 20 years instead of bitching about our schedule all the time.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:56 PM ^
Well thank God I never see you on here bitching...
November 11th, 2020 at 3:49 PM ^
Maybe it means that Franklin knows how to hire very good coordinators. Other than Jedd Fisch or Greg Mattison, who has he hired that moved onto a prominent position (I'm genuinely asking)?
November 11th, 2020 at 4:02 PM ^
No one cares who you hire if they don't get the job done. My point is Harbaugh's seat isn't hotter because of what Moorhead has done AFTER he left PSU.
November 11th, 2020 at 6:13 PM ^
Washington got poached by OSU, Campanile went to the NFL, Partridge is the DC for Ole Miss
November 11th, 2020 at 3:51 PM ^
No one at PSU should be proud that Moorhead moved on to a HC job.
However, UM fans should be concerned that our assistant coaches keep fleeing to lateral (at best) jobs.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:57 PM ^
Of course, but I don't think the perception of that has anything to do with the hot seat.
November 11th, 2020 at 4:10 PM ^
I've seen several writers (and posters here) cite our constant coaching departures as reason JH can't cut it any more,
Not saying they're right, but it's definitely one of the talking points people use to make JH's seat hotter.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:36 PM ^
He’s won the conference and won 11 games multiple times. W/L overall isnt as good, but people forgive the down years when you show you can stock the trophy case (even if just once). They don’t have the delusion that they are gonna compete every single year.
Recruiting rankings aren’t something most people care about, and honestly being ranked 5-15 are pretty similar classes. The top 3-4 are on another level. Neither UM nor PSU are there.
The rest, You are spot on. But it all pales in comparison to conference championships and 11 win seasons. It’s just how it is. People are interested in the macro, not things that don’t show up in the W/L column or trophy case.
Michigan created tons of publicity and predictions of greatness when Harbaugh was hired so now you see the other side of that -backlash if you will - when it isn’t working out. Not much fanfare and attention-seeking happened when Franklin was hired.
I think he is a complete shit coach, more so than Jim, I’m just explaining why he wont be fired.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:44 PM ^
"People are interested in the macro, not things that don’t show up in the W/L column or trophy case."
I have to agree. And it's notable it doesn't really even matter who those wins are against. PSU has had it easier than Michigan.
I also think it helps that OSU isn't really a rival. At least that's not how I or most of college football fans see it. So PSU isn't constantly being compared to, and thus diminished by, one of the juggernauts out there today.
November 11th, 2020 at 4:13 PM ^
I really hate that it's become an excuse around here that OSU will never overlook us because we're a rival (as if they overlook Penn State, they don't) but yet we overlook MSU constantly...and OSU is supposed to be our rival but we constantly play one of our worst games of the year against them.
November 11th, 2020 at 5:57 PM ^
And another MGoBlog delusion favorite is that when OSU / MSU were battling for the conference regularly for that short stretch, OSU for some reason didn’t take their game against MSU seriously when they lost despite knowing the game was most likely for the division or conference.
November 11th, 2020 at 6:02 PM ^
Bingo. Whether fair or not, 11-2 is better than 9-4 even though the 9-4 team beat a bunch of highly ranked teams
(beating a bunch of highly ranked teams is not a scenario that applies to either school but you get the point)
November 11th, 2020 at 6:02 PM ^
sumbitchdoublepost
November 11th, 2020 at 6:17 PM ^
He’s won the conference and won 11 games multiple times.
I think another thing is final ranking. Franklin has finished 3 times with a top ten ranking. ('16, '17, '19.) Harbaugh has only finished with one top ten ranking ('16)
I think psychologically, it's easier for the PSU fan base to think of themselves as a top ten-ish program than it is for the Michigan fanbase.
November 13th, 2020 at 5:09 PM ^
One conference championship in a year UM finished with the better record during the regular season.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:44 PM ^
Franklin just signed an extension early 2020...I have to believe his buyout to get fired now would be almost $40 million....He's not going to get fired
November 11th, 2020 at 3:46 PM ^
Wow. Killer timing for Franklin there.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^
He’s a media darling who has a B1G championship.
I listen to ESPNU radio throughout the day at work, and there has been 2-3x more coverage on Harbaugh/Michigan than Franklin/PSU.
Its ridiculous. Only if the ‘16 game was officiated correctly.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^
I agree, it is ridiculous.
Only if the "16 game had Peppers making the tackle on 3rd and 10 when he had Samuels dead to rights for a 10 yard loss thereby forcing OSU into either a 53 yard FG to tie or a Hail Mary pass for the win. Or not fumbling on the 1 yard line going into score. Or not throwing a pick-six from our end zone. Or making a stop on defense in the 4th quarter.
There, fixed it for you.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:53 PM ^
This. Those things mentioned above suck for UM, but even after all of that they still had several chances put the game away and didn't get it done.
November 11th, 2020 at 4:15 PM ^
But the refs! And the weather! And the bad luck! And the Big Ten hates us! And all the other reasons Harbaugh can't win here.
November 11th, 2020 at 4:22 PM ^
They also could have kept trying to score in the 4th quarter instead of putting all the pressure on their defense.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^
Franklin's seat is cooler because Wilton Speight broke his collarbone against Iowa in 2016. Anything other than a dreadful performance from gimpy Speight in 2016 would have given us a B1G championship and a trip to the playoffs.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:47 PM ^
Brian Kelly survived lows this low at ND and bounced back to mediocre with hints of national title hopes.
- Zero conference championships
- Vacated all wins from 2012 & 2013
- 4-8 in year 7
- Immediately follows that up with his best 3 year stretch in years 8, 9, & 10.
- Just beat #1 Clemson* in year 11, & well on the way to a CoFoPoff appearance
*who was without the best QB in college football
November 11th, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^
I think Notre Dame and Michigan are very similar institutionally. The fact that ND didn't fire Brian Kelly after going 4-8 in year 7 (with four other 4+ loss seasons) should tell us what's going to happen to Harbaugh after the weird pandemic year. His seat will get hot, but he's not going anywhere.
November 11th, 2020 at 4:18 PM ^
I agree. And frankly, I'm ok with that. Harbaugh deserves the criticism he's getting (he can cry all the way to the bank). But if he has the same record as Brian Kelly in year 11, I won't be complaining and I suspect most other UM fans won't be either.
November 12th, 2020 at 10:06 AM ^
ND went to the National Championship game and went to Fiesta Bowl game the year before he went 4-8. That game Brian Kelly a ton of leeway and he took them to the playoff in 2018 which means he'll never get fired. If he doesn't get fired over killing a student intern, he'll never get fired.
Harbaugh has shown nothing to note which is a different story
November 11th, 2020 at 3:55 PM ^
Brian Kelly survived lows this low at ND and bounced back to mediocre with hints of national title hopes.
Well, if JH wins 11-12 games (as ND has done three times) & beats OSU in 2021 (as ND beat Clemson) we'll all be cool with it. But, how confident are you that will happen? Kelly also has a winning record in blow games.
November 11th, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
FWIW Kelly's five bowl wins have been against:
- Rutgers
- Lame-duck Miami
- Iowa State
- A bad LSU team that put Les Miles on the hot seat
- Coach O's first LSU team (good, not great win)
Harbaugh would have a winning bowl record with that schedule too.
November 11th, 2020 at 4:16 PM ^
Based on what? We couldnt put away a Muschamp led South Carolina in 2017.