Preferred Method for Filling out Your Bracket

Submitted by tsunami42080 on

More than half the fun for me during March Madness is filling out brackets and competing with friends. With the plethora of advanced statistics metrics and "expert" opinions, curious what everyone has found to be most effective means to complete their bracket...Kenpom? Bracket Matrix? Another website not mentioned?

Personally, I like to use a combo of Kenpom and Bracket Matrix along with proverbial "gut feel".

lhglrkwg

March 12th, 2017 at 7:32 PM ^

But I always have at least a 5 over a 12, don't put any 13+ seeds past the Sweet 16, and use KenPom as a tiebreak

Interestingly, I read this year that conference champs (esp for small schools) are more reliable to go deep than tournament champs

mfan_in_ohio

March 12th, 2017 at 7:33 PM ^

Flipping coins based solely on seed lines. For example, a 12 beats a 5 about 25% of the time, so flip two coins and if they are both tails, advance the 12. I realized I never pick a crazy enough bracket to win the huge pool I'm in, so maybe this will make me do it.

xtramelanin

March 12th, 2017 at 7:43 PM ^

with total disregard to the seedings, records, etc.  of course the wolverines win it all every year but the rest are up for discussion. 

LBSS

March 13th, 2017 at 2:01 AM ^

I always do a mascot bracket, too! 

Let's see, Badger vs. Hokie is easy. Spartan vs. a Hurricane, still pretty easy. But then what about Bearcast vs. Wildcat? Bearcat sounds bigger but maybe it'd just be chilled out and a wildcat would fuck it up on sheer willpower. Tiger vs. Fighting Irish? Tigers are fierce but Fighting Irish are too drunk to feel pain, and they're pretty scrappy, possibly armed, and multiple. Still probably give the edge to the Tiger there.

Etc.

One of my favorite annual traditions.

NateVolk

March 12th, 2017 at 7:49 PM ^

I don't play unless extra points are assigned for picking upsets along the way. Otherwise it's boring. A bunch of saber nerds wasting hours researching and picking conservative chalk and getting rewarded for it.

tsunami42080

March 12th, 2017 at 8:42 PM ^

Exactly, the bracket I've ran for 10 years now on CBS uses multiply seed by round....round 1 is multiplied by 1, round 2 by 2, round 3 by 4, etc. I think the championship is x64, so it really rewards you for upsets and lower seeds. I think that makes it way more fun that straight up

corundum

March 12th, 2017 at 8:02 PM ^

Heavily lean on Vegas lines and location proximity for the opening round and pick a few upsets to differentiate from common picks. In the second and third rounds, I value offensive rebound advantages and deep benches. Coaching experience is very important- no matter how many NBA players Matt Painter has, he will undoubtedly find a way to bonehead his way to a loss. I avoid niche teams after the Sweet 16, examples include teams who rely on full court press (WVU) or exclusively post play (Purdue). Almost all teams that make the Final 4 have excellent guard play, so that's paramount to a deep run.

corundum

March 12th, 2017 at 10:32 PM ^

I've finished in the top 10 out of ~50 in three of the last four years. Haven't won the whole pool since I picked Michigan to beat Louisville back in 2013, but that was more homer logic than strategy. I did pretty bad last year, but you'll always have outlier years no matter how much bball you watch.

alum96

March 12th, 2017 at 8:11 PM ^

Ask random hot chicks (i.e. Mabel) to come back to my place to pick teams based on their favorite colors and mascots.  Usually beats the dudes who spend 45 of the next 50 hrs on analyzing every player based on their history from the 7th grade...

WolverineHistorian

March 12th, 2017 at 8:15 PM ^

I went with a gut check for years and it never did much good. I would always join an online group bracket on yahoo with other Michigan fans. But my bracket was always on life support by the time of the Sweet 16. Only once did I correctly predict 3 Final Four teams, which was the year Florida won it all for the second straight year. Every other year, I almost always finish around 86th place out of 100 people.

Hail_Yes

March 12th, 2017 at 8:22 PM ^

This year I'm in a competition where the bottom 2 finishers have to purchase beer for the top 2 finishers, so I might just chalk it up.  Predicting wrong upsets is what always dooms my bracket (like picking Villanova to lose in the round of 32 last year).

JHendo

March 12th, 2017 at 8:35 PM ^

I'm already done with mine. I usually go with a competitive team with the best player as the winner, and then go with gut feelings for the rest. In the past 7 years, that strategy has got me 2 incredibly successful bracket pool years surrounded by a lot of duds.

Beileiver

March 12th, 2017 at 8:40 PM ^

Always one bracket purely on gut, complete within 5 minutes. Then another I obsess over. My gut bracket is almost always better - I hear you have twice as many nerve endings in your gut as in your brain...

IvyLeague

March 12th, 2017 at 8:50 PM ^

Look for Michigan and if they are in the tournament I put the good guys in the sweet 16. Then I look for Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State and Notre Dame and if any of them are in the tournament I have them losing in the 1st round. I then have Duke and Kentucky losing at the first possible realistic chance. I do the rest of my bracket based on gut. Been doing it the past 20 years or so... mixed results but I always feel good about it. 

BeatOSU52

March 12th, 2017 at 11:38 PM ^

First rounds I rely heavily on what the Vegas sharps are thinking . The rounds after that , I guess I just mix the personal eye test and read some articles from "experts" I trust and see what they're thinking

tsunami42080

March 13th, 2017 at 11:24 AM ^

After watching the tourney for 20+ years, it really wouldn't surprise me with some of the other teams (Cuse just last year) making Final 4 runs. That being said, UM was done no favors with Ok St. in the 1st round..nervous UM could get outgunned. I'm not high on KU, but Louisville will a very difficult out.

LSAClassOf2000

March 12th, 2017 at 9:31 PM ^

First and foremost, full disclosure - I am that guy and usually find myself in multiple pools, which I know annoys some people but I like to tinker with bracket formulas and try them out in real-life betting scenarios. 

I will usually use a mix of rankings on key stats versus a bit of admittedly unfounded intuition about certain teams, so not exactly scientific, but what I like to do is emphasize different stats and see what sort of results I get.