Power 5 Division Clinching Scenarios

Submitted by SpikeFan2016 on

One week to go everyone; here is a final look at the games that will decide Championship Game appearances this year!

 

Big Ten 

 

Big Ten East:

We all know the deal with this division. 

Clinching Scenarios:

  • Michigan (10-1 overall, 7-1 Big Ten): Clinches with a win at Ohio State.
  • Penn State (9-2 overall, 7-1 Big Ten): Clinches with a win against Michigan State AND a Michigan loss to Ohio State.
  • Ohio State (10-1 overall, 7-1 Big Ten): Clinches with a win against Michigan AND a Penn State loss to Michigan State. 

Big Ten West: 

This is a two-team race with Wisconsin in very good position. Minnesota was eliminated this past weekend with Nebraska's win over Maryland and Iowa's win over Illinois; the reason being that even though the Gophers could still beat Wisconsin and have Iowa beat Nebraska to result in a four-way, 6-3 tie, the Badgers win the tiebreaker. (In this scenario, each of Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota would be 4-2 against the Big Ten West; the Badgers would be 5-1 against their own division given two of their losses were to Michigan and Ohio State). 

Clinching Scenarios:

  • Wisconsin (9-2 overall, 6-2 Big Ten): Clinches with a win vs. Minnesota OR a Nebraska loss at Iowa. 
  • Nebraska (9-2 overall, 6-2 Big Ten): Clinches with a win at Iowa AND a Wisconsin loss to Minnesota. 

 

PAC 12 

 

PAC 12 North:

Even though both North contenders lost within the last two weeks to the two remaining South contenders, this one still comes down to the Apple Cup in Pullman on Friday (11/25).

Clinching Scenarios:

  • Washington (10-1 overall, 7-1 PAC 12): Clinches with a win at Washington State. 
  • Washington State (8-3 overall, 7-1 PAC 12): Clinches with a win vs. Washington. 

 

PAC 12 South:

The poor Utah Utes were eliminated from contention this past weekend by losing a 30-28 game at home against the lowly Oregon Ducks (this loss is the only reason that USC is still alive). Shockingly, Utah still could finish with a perfect 5-0 record against their own division (and it wouldn't matter). What killed them was a putrid 1-3 record in cross-divisional games against the North, including two losses to non-bowl teams (Oregon and California). Anyways, the Utes now must fight a proxy war for the USC trojans in Boulder. Colorado is ahead of USC by half a game currently, but lost to the Trojans in Los Angeles so Southern Cal would win the head-to-head tiebreaker. Southern California has already finished PAC 12 play (final game is against Notre Dame) so all they can do is watch from the sidelines hoping the Utes #FightOn for them.

Clinching Scenarios: 

  • Colorado (9-2 overall, 7-1 PAC 12): Clinches with a win vs. Utah. 
  • Southern California (8-3 overall, 7-2 PAC 12): Clinches with a Colorado loss to Utah. 

 

Big 12

Oklahoma absolutely embarassed West Virginia on the road this weekend and Oklahoma State easily handled TCU on the road to set the stage for a Bedlam Conference Championship Game in Norman on December 3rd. 

Clinching Scenarios: 

  • Oklahoma (9-2 overall, 8-0 Big 12): Clinches with a win vs. Oklahoma State
  • Oklahoma State (9-2 overall, 7-1 Big 12): Clinches with a win at Oklahoma.

 

 

ACC 

 

ACC Atlantic Champion:

  • Clemson (10-1 overall, 7-1 ACC)

 

ACC Coastal

Both contenders have home games against instate rivals who are having rough seasons; Virginia Tech owns the head-to-head tiebreaker on the back of a blowout win in Chapel Hill on that hurricane weekend in early October. 

Clinching Scenarios:

  • Virginia Tech (8-3 overall, 5-2 ACC): Clinches with a win vs. Virginia OR a North Carolina loss to North Carolina State. 
  • North Carolina (8-3 overall, 5-2 ACC): Clinches with a win vs. North Carolina State AND a Virginia Tech loss to Virginia. 

 

 

 

SEC 

Florida beat LSU on a goal line stand to win the SEC East. Their next two games are @Florida State and vs. Alabama. Gators gonna die. 

Championship: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators

 

MGoBoard
Football

The Fugitive

November 20th, 2016 at 11:29 AM ^

I see Bama, B1G Champ, Clempson and Worshington if they beat Colorado or beat USC in a rematch in the CFP.

1. Bama
2. B1G Champ (assuming Michigan or Ohio State)
3. Clempson
4. Worshington

Based on the above, ff PSU or Wisconsin wins the B1G, I think they would be the 4 seed and the other two would move up.

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SpikeFan2016

November 20th, 2016 at 11:45 AM ^

Ohio State has a 0.01% chance of a #2 seed. 

 

They could be #3 or #4, but Clemson will automatically jump them after winning their conference championship when OSU is sitting idly by on the December 3rd weekend. 

 

The committee has consistently shown that they do not care what the rankings were a week before; remember, TCU fell three spots from #3 to #6 after winning their final game by FIFTY points because they did not play in a conference championship. 

 

OSU could definitely drop from #2 to #5, but it'll depend on what happens around the country. If Washington blows out Washington State and Colorado, and Oklahoma State somehow defeats Oklahoma with ease on the road (to date OSU's best win), Buckeyes are in a lot of trouble. 

 

It's likely that the Big Ten Champion replaces them, unless Wisconsin wins a flukey type close game over Penn State and OSU beats Michigan with ease. 

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HAIL-YEA

November 20th, 2016 at 1:30 PM ^

facts are there that you are almost in the same situation as last year. The only difference is a crappier MSU team only had 1 loss. I am guessing Michigan fans are the only people outside of buckeye homers that you have heard discuss it. You are argueing that OSU should get in over a team that beat you head to head and won the division and conference you are in. It takes some serious delusion to think like you all do. Nothing else matters as long as you win? Only teams that control their own destiny can say that, OSU can't. Not that it matters Michigan is winning the game anyway. 

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SpikeFan2016

November 20th, 2016 at 1:52 PM ^

Um, check out CBS Sports national Week 12 winner's and loser's analysis. Also, a sizable chunk of Buckeye fans are worrying. You just continue to be wildly ignorant on this thread. If anyone tells you OSU either is 100% in or out with a win this week, they are talking out of their ass.

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SeattleWolverine

November 20th, 2016 at 12:14 PM ^

People keep citing TCU but that is apples and oranges.

TCU did not fall that week because they did not play in their conference championship. They fell because OSU annhilated Wisconsin in the B1G championship, FSU won the ACC, and Baylor grabbed their half of the Big 12 and impressed with a road win at #9 KSU. KSU being the only team that TCU beat all year, well, and #25 8-4 Minnesota I guess. All of those teams that passed TCU in the final rankings had the same or fewer losses than TCU. All of Oklahoma, Wisconsin, PSU, Ok St, Louisville, etc have more losses than OSU would have if they beat us and PSU wins the division. A 1 loss OSU with wins over WI, MI, OK, NE and a good loss to PSU getting passed over for 2 loss conference championships is different than a meh TCU team with a weak schedule and wins getting passed by other conference champs who had better schedules and the same (OSU/Baylor) or fewer (FSU) losses in 2014.

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Michigan4Life

November 20th, 2016 at 12:28 PM ^

OSU is in regardless with a win over Michigan. OSU's best win which is Oklahoma on the road and Michigan is better than PSU's best win which is OSU and they also got blown out by Michigan and lost to Pittsburgh. OSU has one less loss than PSU.

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HAIL-YEA

November 20th, 2016 at 1:20 PM ^

Penn State's win against OSU is better than any win OSU has, and they will have a 2nd top 10 win by beating Wisconsin.  OSU not winning their division is not going in over the champ of what is considered by most to be the strongest conference this year. I could see the arguement if Wisc wins the conference, but no way if its PSU.  

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trustBlue

November 20th, 2016 at 1:56 PM ^

Uh, if the OSU wins next week, their best win will be against Michigan. You seem to be conviced that the committee will take PSU current body of work + wins over MSU and Wisconsion over OSU's current body of work + a win over Michigan. I wouldnt be confident of that at all.

Its self-evident in the current rankings, that the CFP committee already thinks that OSU's current body of work is better than PSU's body of work by wide margin.  

The committee supposedly values conference championships, but if Michigan does not win out, we are going to find out how much that's really worth.

Personally, I have awfully hard time believing that OSU could be ranked #2, beat Michigan, and then somehow drop 3 or more spots after sitting at home for one week.

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SeattleWolverine

November 20th, 2016 at 2:40 PM ^

There's a lot of variables and assumptions obviously. I think OSU probably is in. Clemson and Alabama in. Then the question is who is out between OSU, PSU and Washington (if 1 loss PAC 10 champ)? I think PSU gets in as champ of a conference with 5 fairly highly ranked teams. And then probably OSU but it is no slam dunk and I'm just guessing. I personally would put in OSU and PSU. 

 

I guess my point is just that the 2014 TCU situation is different than this one. 

And disappointing buckeye? Nice troll. 

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Sleepy

November 20th, 2016 at 12:35 PM ^

...they'd be the B1G Champion with a head-to-head win over tOSU. And tOSU isn't making the CFP at the expense of a one-loss SEC, ACC or Pac-12 Champion. So, in that scenario... 1) Alabama, 13-0, SEC Champ 2) Clemson, 12-1, ACC Champ 3) Washington, 12-1, Pac-12 Champ 4) Penn State, 11-2, B1G Champ 5) Ohio State, 11-1

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SpikeFan2016

November 20th, 2016 at 11:37 AM ^

I'm not sure how you can assume OSU will be the Big Ten Champion.

They are the least likely of the 4 Big Ten teams to win the conference. 

 

If OSU beats Michigan, but PSU still beats MSU, it'll be interesting who the Buckeyes root for. I honestly think either UW or PSU could jump them (especially given that their MSU victory was not at all impressive), but I'm not sure which would have the greater shot. 

 

Wisconsin has a better strength of schedule and would head into Indy ranked higher than PSU (likely #5), but they lost to the Buckeyes. PSU would start lower and has a worse SOS, but I don't see how you can put OSU in over them given head to head AND a conference championship. 

 

Also, Wisconsin's athletic director is on the committee, which means the Badgers will have a much stronger voice for them in the room than the Buckeyes will. 

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SpikeFan2016

November 20th, 2016 at 12:06 PM ^

PSU has a win vs. the #2 team....

So, wrong. 

 

Either one of them gets another Top 8 win in Indianapolis as well, this is the all important final win. Both would likely be ranked higher than Michigan going into December 3rd if we lose.  

 

And Oklahoma could lose to Oklahoma State which will drop them. 

A lot can happen. It can go either way, but if you think Ohio State is guranteed you aren't paying attention. 

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SeattleWolverine

November 20th, 2016 at 3:05 PM ^

I guess this is the heart of the disagreement. So you would put Oklahoma State in over Ohio State if OK State beats Oklahoma and wins the big 12? Their conference championship outweighs the fact that:

OK State has 2 losses at home to 6-5 Central Michigan and @Baylor (6-4). OSU has a loss @PSU (9-2). OK State would have wins @Oklahoma as probably their only top 15 win. Whereas OSU would have wins @Oklahoma, @Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska among probable top 15 teams. So 4 good wins versus 1. 

I can definitely see putting a PSU with the head to head and the same conference championship in or a 1 loss UW if they win out and add WSU and USC/CO wins. But at some point the records and SOS and quality of football have to matter or else we might as well invite Western Michigan and Boise State too. Because if you look at their OOC performance, it's pretty clear the Big 12 sucks. 

 

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victors2000

November 20th, 2016 at 11:36 AM ^

What if OSU and Penn State win out; do both get into the field of 4? What about Oklahoma State? Technically, they should be a 10-1 squad right now, what if they run the table? There are other plausible 'Elephant in the room' scenarios; this could get a little uncomfortable for the powers that be.

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maquih

November 20th, 2016 at 11:44 AM ^

Is it actually "clinching" if you win the division on the last day? That's just winning it.  Clinching implies there are games left to play but the division is already decided.

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turtleboy

November 20th, 2016 at 12:08 PM ^

Odds on Va Tech beating Clemson on a neutral field? Clemson has been so shaky even at home, if VaTech shows up and contains Watson then the top 4 situations get really interesting

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superstringer

November 20th, 2016 at 12:00 PM ^

I like how Mike Gundy thinks OSU(NTOSU) should be considered 10-1 and not 9-2, due to the illegal play CMU ran.  BUT... dude, you'd be 10-1 with a <7 pt win at home over CMU, which is most assuredly not WMU.  And where would OSU(NTOSU)'s quality win be outside the conference?  Precisely, doesn't exist.

More to the point, if you look at it conference-wide, where are the out of conference wins over top 25 teams?  The SEC has ONE, I think -- Bama over USC(YTUSC).  I am not sure the BigXII has any at all.  Hell, Group of 5 teams have three -- Houston with two of them (OU, Louisville), and Boise St. (WSU, although WSU is probably going to drop out now).  I don't think the PacXII has any, either?  The B1G has at least three (OSU(YTOSU) over OU; us over Colorado; Wisconsin over LSU, although LSU is probably going to drop out now too).

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Don

November 20th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^

in favor of 2-loss BIG champion, the screaming for an expanded field will be immediate and intense.

It would not surprise me in the least if Sparty beats PSU, which would make much of this moot.

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