OT - WSJ article how strategies played on video games preceded trends seen in NBA and NFL

Submitted by crom80 on November 6th, 2018 at 12:25 PM

thought the article would be interesting for readers here and wanted to share.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-nba-and-nfl-have-become-videogames-1541509200?tesla=y&mod=e2fb

 

NBA - at a time when 3-pointers accounted for 8% of total points in the league, games played on NBA Jam was about 50% and 52%.

"30% of points scored in the NBA now come from 3-pointers, and that rate has steadily increased every single year for the last three decades".

"In any given arcade, about 75% of total points came from dunks, layups and 3-pointers, the most valuable shots in basketball. That number in the real-life NBA is now up to 64%."

 

NFL - 1993, "9% of offensive snaps came from the shotgun position, and only 54.9% of offensive plays were passes".

"Passing in professional football now accounts for an all-time high 60% of plays. And that’s still lower than the 69% of Madden users, according to EA Sports data."

"In one area, reality has surpassed virtual reality. Madden quarterbacks use the shotgun for 53% of plays in the game. NFL quarterbacks have used the shotgun on 63% of plays this year, and that has allowed quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes to put up never-before-seen numbers in this record-breaking NFL scoring season."

 

I thought the NBA trend was quite interesting along with coach beilein's offense philosophy and 3s, well maybe not quite for this season... 

 

also the article reminded me about a 'soccer' manager game called 'football manager'. for those that don't know anything about it, imagine a game where you are the head coach of a football team. you can only control the managerial aspect of the team off the field and also the strategy during the games. can't control players. you can choose any HS/NFL or CFL team to manage. also imagine there are real life scouting details of EVERY football players in the WORLD aged 14+ so you can scout and recruit/draft/trade to your team.

anyhoo, there was a very low tiered team in UK that used the game to scout for players since the team didn't have the financial means to send scouts out. the story told mentioned how accurate the scouting for the players were, even for those that wouldn't even be known outside of the region.

The Maizer

November 6th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^

Is this even an interesting observation though? If it's meaningful in any way, I suggest we look at additional cases.

Have NFL teams started throwing hail mary passes more often on every play? Does their QB run backwards for 20 yards before doing a spin move and chucking the ball downfield? Do they send all out blitzes every play? Onside kick every time? Fake field goals from their own side of the field?

I'm really good at Madden guys.

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BroadneckBlue21

November 7th, 2018 at 7:36 AM ^

The mockery is not astounding from bloggers. I am pretty sure the best Madden and NCAA gamers didn’t go 20 yards back. 

Motion, spread, speed, slants, pick routes. The concepts that win for the average Joe have been more and more integrated prior to the popularity in the real game. This is not to argue causation, but to ramp down the denigration of the supposition’s plausibility. This is worth a qualitative study of coaches. Someone do a survey of pro and college coaches! (They likely will not admit the influence, but what a fun project that’d be for a PhD.)

One play I used for years of NCAA was to motion a WR and snap while he was behind the line on a drag or quick out route. That often lead to wide open receivers. I see this more and more with my pro team, and those like Eagles, Pats, and Chiefs. 

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stephenrjking

November 6th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^

Yeah, these percentages don't actually have any real-life application. Good video game players will gravitate to strategies that work in the game; those strategies are influenced by the programming and the unique issues a game's programming creates or eliminates.

In NBA Jam dunks and layups were, obviously, encouraged by the structure of the game. And 3-pointers, while difficult, were barely more likely to brick than a standard jump shot. Also, jump shots were less fun. So of course that's how people would play.

Football video games have gotten better, but they still aren't perfect replicas of the actual game on the field. You can't make the same read a real QB makes against cover 2 and expect it to work the same way. Run blocking assignments bear little resemblance to real life. The strategies that work are the ones that are effective in the universe of the game.

I got Madden 94 for Christmas on my SNES, and my play selection typically varied between sweep right and pitch left. Barry Sanders would then run for a TD. It was fun. It wasn't a useful predictor of actual football strategy (though in the case of the Lions perhaps it should have been). 

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Farnn

November 6th, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^

But you also have people making strategy decisions without worrying about how fans/media will react if they go poorly.  While the mechanics don't completely mirror the real game, some mechanics don't really matter in overall strategy.  Video game players have a history of being great at min/maxing and finding every advantage they can in a game.  It's also a much bigger population than active coaches so you get a lot more data and testing.  It won't all carry over, but it's silly to dismiss, especially when college and pro players enjoy these games and can be influenced by them.

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The Maizer

November 6th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^

In Wayne Gretzky 3D Hockey, I just cross check every player over and over and over. Then I light the puck on fire and blast it through the goalie's torso, turning the net to cinders. Hopefully the WSJ does some quantitative analysis on the correlation of that with the NHL's evolving strategies.

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Don

November 6th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^

Once upon a time back in 1961, the shotgun was a bizarre newfangled formation that only one team in the NFL used.

This SI article describes how the 49ers flummoxed the Rams, and yes, the Lions, beating the latter 49-0 using the shotgun.

And yes, I'm so old I have a clear memory of listening to that Lions asswhuppin' on the radio—formations may have changed over the years, but some things have remained constant.

https://www.si.com/vault/1961/10/16/618260/bang-goes-the-shotgun

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