Next Week's Playoff rankings

Submitted by alum96 on

Because we need another playoff thread...

No ... just to see where things fall out this Tuesday.  UCLA and Utah games outstanding of course.  This presumes a Utah win.  If Utah loses it falls below us ;yes even if we lost head to head - they are #10 this week and we would rise to 10 to 12 ourselves.

I will put last week in (x).

Projected

  1. Clemson   10-0 (1)
  2. Bama   9-1 (2)
  3. OSU  10-0 (3)
  4. ND   9-1 (4)
  5. Iowa   10-0 (5)
  6. Oklahoma   9-1 (12)
  7. Ok State   10-0 (8)
  8. Utah   9-1 (10)  8-2 now (move them down to 15 or so next to Stanford)
  9. Florida   9-1 (11)
  10. Baylor   8-1 (6)
  11. MSU   9-1 (13)
  12. UM   8-2 (14)
  13. FSU  8-2 (16)
  14. TCU  9-1 (15)

Some mix of UCLA (if they win), Northwestern, Stanford, LSU, Houston, Navy, North Carolina in 15-21 slots.

Variables

  • They might flip flop OK State ahead of Oklahoma. 
  • They might drop Baylor behind some Big 10 teams. 
  • They might move FSU ahead of some Big 10 teams. 
  • TCU looked bad and has an injured QB which matters so even with 1 loss I see them behind UM... and FSU now.
  • If Utah loses I see them somewhere around 15-16.
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Mr. Yost

November 15th, 2015 at 12:38 AM ^

With a Utah loss, they fall to 14 or 15.

IMO...we can stop the Michigan to playoff threads unless we win out and Baylor wins out and then loses to Texas in the last game of the year. We'd also need Oklahoma to give Okie St. it's second loss of the year.

Then again, if we win out and Stanford beats ND and Utah. Is the committee REALLY going to take two Big XII teams over the B1G and Pac 12 champ?

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doggdetroit

November 15th, 2015 at 2:18 AM ^

A 1 loss Big 12 champ not named Oklahoma (who could finish with 4 quality wins depending on how Tennessee finishes) would only have two quality wins. OSU, Iowa, Michigan, MSU, ND, Stanford, Utah, Alabama and Clemson can all finish with more quality wins if they win out. The Big 12's playoff hopes are down to an undefeated OK State or a 1 loss Oklahoma. Otherwise it's on the outside once again.

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Mr. Yost

November 15th, 2015 at 12:32 AM ^

Would be unreal.

You'd have so many teams right now with a legitimate shot at getting in and you'd still have a solid product in the playoff.

IMO, the first round/quarterfinals should be played at the home site of the top 4 seeds.

Then put the winners in bowls just like we have now.

Loser of the quarterfinals go to regular bowls.

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Red is Blue

November 15th, 2015 at 12:45 AM ^

Assuming Iowa finishes regular season undefeated, the B1G championship game has a real chance to be a play-in game. Same for SEC championship game if Florida and Bama get there without dropping another. OSU plays MSU and if OSU wins that they play Michigan. If Michigan can get by PSU, OSU playoff'spot basically start next Saturday (win and advance, lose and likely be eliminated). Ok, Okie St, TCU and Baylor are sort of playing a round Robin tournament with the winner having a decent shot at getting in, with losers likely eliminated. Seems like we've already effectively got an 8+ team playoff.

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Pepto Bismol

November 15th, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^

I see what you're saying, but it's quite possible all of your "Play-In" scenarios could still leave you on the outside looking in.

Just look at last year.  What did Ohio State REALLY do to warrant their inclusion at 12-1 over 11-1 Baylor and 11-1 TCU?  It was all a giant guessing game that was ultimatly proven correct.  But we still to this day don't know if 2014 TCU would've beaten 2014 OSU. 

It might not be such an obvious snub every year, but with 5 power conferences, you've got to afford at least the conference champs a shot.  If Notre Dame makes it this year, you'll have TWO(!) power 5 conference champs left out in the cold. 

And why?  You have no clue how good the Big-12 teams really are.  How can you just leave them out?  Sorry?  "Sorry, we don't have enough spots and we don't really have a good reason to exclude you, but Condolleeza Rice said you're out"?

If Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Clemson all win out, what are your 3 Big 12 teams REALLY playing for?

 

5 Conference champs & a qualified Notre Dame + next 2 or 3 in the rankings.   If you're some at large sitting at 9, and you get snubbed, well, sorry.  That's on you now.  You don't have a gripe anymore.  Win your conference.

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stephenrjking

November 15th, 2015 at 1:08 AM ^

It would be good for us this year, but overall I worry that it will dilute the product. One of the joys of the sport is the "every game matters" aspect that makes the in-game drama so compelling.

Let 8 teams in and a team like Clemson is basically a total lock if it wins even one more game; the ACC championship game would be a meaningless exercise for them, one for which (especially if the first round takes place in neutral sites) they may even rest players. Ohio State could lose to Michigan and it would be a footnote, because they'd be in the playoff for sure. Where's the fun in that?

I'm not saying there wouldn't be fun aspects of it, but college football is superior to other sports in a significant part because the individual games mean far more than any other sport. You spend three hours of your life watching a game? You get paid off by seeing a result that matters to the teams involved.

(For what it's worth a way to mitigate this somewhat is to make the major conference champions an autobid, give one autobid to the best of the lesser conferences, and leave only two at-large berths, one of which is available to Notre Dame. This makes non-conference games less important but makes the conference races just as vital and thus makes the "every game" feature huge in conference matchups).

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Ghost of Fritz…

November 15th, 2015 at 7:53 AM ^

with a 4, 6, or 8 team playoff.  But the 4 team playoff is the best becasue it makes the entire regular season matter.

For the 15 teams with some mathematical shot at making the final 4 at the end of October, the entire month of November is a series of 'win or out' playoff games.  That would not be true with an 8 team playoff format. 

Stanford losing to Oregon, or Baylor losing to Oklahoma, would not matter because the losing team would probably still have a very good chance of making the 8 team playoff. 

Iowa losing to Michigan in the Big Ten conference CCG?  Who cares?  A 1 loss Iowa still makes the 8 team playoff. 

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alum96

November 15th, 2015 at 12:35 AM ^

Games of teams ahead of us next week:

  • Florida Atlantic v UF (uhh)
  • Purdue v Iowa
  • Baylor v OK State
  • TCU v Oklahoma
  • UCLA v Utah
  • Chattoonga v FSU (FSU is moot as they cant win their conf)
  • Wake Forest v Clemson
  • MSU v OSU
  • Charleston Southern v Bama
  • BC v ND (go Flutie!)

 

 

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alum96

November 15th, 2015 at 12:52 AM ^

Because Utah is 10 today.

Utah with a loss today is not going to just drop 1-2 spots.

And UM is 14 today and a bunch of teams ahead of them lost.  They are moving up 2ish.  LSU and Stanford will be behind IMO.

Is it possible Stanford is ahead of Northwestern despite losing to them? Yes.  Both have 2 losses.

Shorter; read the OP.

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Pepto Bismol

November 15th, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^

I think the Playoff Committee has proven it's not just a bump up with a win, drop down with a loss formula.  They claim to start over each and every week.

If the voters all take a look at Michigan and somebody reads aloud:  "Michigan's last 4 games:  Lost to MSU, barely squeaked by 4-6 Minnesota, handily beat 3-6 Rutgers, took everything they had to beat 4-6 (0-6) Indiana... Have beaten one (1) ranked team."   Everyone's going to look at themselves and probably not push them up too high. 

Last week, after a comfortable win, you can excuse the MSU debacle and even cut some slack on the Minnesota struggle.  But adding this game, the committee might start noticing a trend of bad football. 

Obviously, it's not too late to correct that perception, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Michigan stay put at 14 this week.

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stephenrjking

November 15th, 2015 at 1:12 AM ^

I respect the committee quite a bit for that. They should re-evaluate everything during the week, and if that means that they realize they've biffed it on a team that had an unremarkable win in the previous week, that's what it means. 

This is not the polls, where people are conscious of how much they are moving the teams and it's mentally difficult to re-order teams that have both won; they are, by their own stated process, evaluating everything fresh every week.

And the results speak to that. As a consequence, a team doesn't need to worry about "jumping" another team. If they have an important game coming up, the results will be reflected after the game has occurred. 

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Blue Bunny Friday

November 15th, 2015 at 12:50 AM ^

Palyoff talk seems pretty silly to me with 2 losses.  It could happen but it would take a lot of luck with the other teams in front of us in the rankings and behind us.  This has been all over the board and in diaries. I'd prefer if we just stopped the talk until it was more reasonable (next year?).  I would love a B1G championship and a Rose Bowl... those are realistic goals and that is amazing considering last season.

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alum96

November 15th, 2015 at 1:00 AM ^

I dont particularly see UM as a playoff team.  Its a post about next week's rankings and key games.  Not UM going to the playofffs.

But....if Stanford beats ND thus eliminating them, Utah loses tonight thus eliminating a 1 loss P12 team, and Clemson and Bama win out you have some interesting scenarios for the Big 10 winner whomever it is.

  1. Clemson (ACC)
  2. Bama (SEC)
  3. Big 12 winner with 1 loss (or less)
  4. Big 10 champ with 1 loss (or less)

If instead slot 4 is a Big 10 champion with 2 losses (hint: us)  that last spot is up for grabs between P12 and B10. (this assumes ND loses to Stanford and Utah loses)  2 loss ND without a conf championship would be out at that point.

So in this theoretical world that last spot could be between 1 loss Iowa that just lost to UM in championship game, 2 loss UM that beat OSU (and won conf championship), 1 loss OSU whose only loss was UM, or 2 loss winner of Utah v Stanford.  Hey it's a fun thought exercise.

 

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Wolvie3758

November 15th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^

Nov is always filled with Chaos...just look at yesterday how many ranked top 15 teams lost..AND nobody is even talking about the ranked teams that lose to unranked teams that nobody expects..you have 4 win and 5 win teams DESPERATE to get to a bowl (Indiana) and we see what that can mean...Michigan is DEFINITELY still in the hunt..all they have to do is win out and they probably can get to the #4 spot and thats all it takes...Remember winning out would mean wins over two top 5 undefeated teams in OSU and Iowa and the CFP committee has shown that means alot and UM would really rise in the rankings..strangrer things have happened and I believe we would be in if all that happens....BUT..right now? Im very worried about our ability to beat Penn St

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