Michigan Baseball - Draft Update
A couple of weeks ago, there was a thread about the impact of the spring sports shutdown on Michigan baseball and particularly on some of the upperclassmen. FWIW, Baseball America has posted its Top 400 Draft prospects. It may be paywalled but See https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-mlb-draft-top-prospects/
By my count, Michigan had seven players listed, which I believe ties for the most players from any one school on the list. However, only two players - Jeff Criswell who projects as a second rounder and Jesse Franklin who projects as a fifth rounder - would be drafted if MLB, as rumored, only has five rounds. Next up is Jordan Nwogu who is ranked 184 and thus is projected to be drafted if there are seven rounds. The others are further down the list and thus are less likely to be drafted.
You are correct there are 7 Wolverines on the BA Top 400 which ties Arizona St & Georgia for the most college players. Next up are FSU, Louisville & Vandy with 6 players each according to da Twitters
Have to think Criswell gone, which is a big loss. Franklin too. I don't know if Nwongu has enough of a position to make the jump, losing this season hurts him. Next year's team could be very talented. This should help MI more than the rest of the B1G, with the way Bakich recruits jucos.
Yes, I think Criswell is going to get drafted early.
Franklin is an interesting case. He missed the entire shortened season with an injury--he was set to return in late March/early April--so I wonder if that might hurt his stock some.
Nwogu is just loaded with potential, even if he doesn't have Franklin's talent right now, and some team just might take a flyer on him in round 5.
BA’s rankings have left a bit to be desired the last handful of years. After the top 60-75ish, it’s been spotty. Some of that is the nature of how they do it as they rely on scouts and not their own evaluations, and that can create quite the delta in opinions on players, depending on the scout you talked to and at what level (regional crosschecker, national x-checker, director, etc.)
I haven’t talked to the staff since out in Malibu for the Pepperdine series, so this isn’t from them, more so my opinion and those of scouts.
Criswell is closer to an early-third round, likely where Henry and Kauffmann went last year. Stuff didn’t play up as well as anticipated omg he abbreviated season. But he’ll go high enough to be gone, reliever risk and all
Franklin had the definition of a lost season with his broken collarbone keeping him out. He, IMO, would do well coming back for Jr. year #2, and still have leverage. The strikeout totals weren’t too bad last year, but generally 20% is the line where an orange flag starts to raise, red would be 30%. Some scouts think the swing-and-miss is due to selling out more for pull power. Showing more consistency, rates closer to freshman year, paired with his tools could have him a first-rounder next year, especially if he’s able to showcase his speed more on the bases and add one more year of quality center field defense.
Nwogu, although his numbers were strong, is another player who showed a bit more swing-and-missed than desired. Though the concern for him is pitch recognition. The athleticism is there, he probably can be serviceable in center with more reps. If it’s only a five-round draft, he’s right on that fence.
As too is Jack Blomgren. He’s continued to advance at the plate over three seasons. He has the body control, lateral range and enough arm to stick at short. He’ll likely add more strength to have good game power and his makeup is plus. He’s pushed himself into being a 4-7 round pick. Again, it will come down to how shortened the draft is, but he’s the third-best Big Ten positional prospect, in my eyes, behind Ohio State’s Dillon Dingler and Franklin.
Blake Beers was gaining more attention and merits some buzz. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the track record of Criswell and with the season being only four weeks, four weeks away from Ann Arbor, a lot of scouts are scrambling for insight and trying to video scout. Normal year he could have pitched himself into 6-8 range, lack of innings and exposure may hurt him.
Joe Donovan is an amazing kid, you’d want his heart and hustle on every team, but the performance isn’t there. Bat jumped back a bit and he continues to box balls. Scouts can’t tell if it’s aptitude or ability. He’s athletic enough to have played at third in high school, and displayed soft hands in the field, so the poor framing and passed balls are a question. And the bat didn’t produce enough to render those questions secondary.
Dragani will be back as he didn’t get a chance to show he was healthy following TJ. As a would-have-been draft-eligible sophomore, Paige was rather lukewarm this year and his ranking is reflective of last year’s postseason run over what he showed in 2020 and now scouts view him. Sure he may sign as a NDFA for $20k, but a degree and two more years of eligibility would make that silly
All in all, it’ll be somewhere between 2-4 players are called if it’s a five-round draft, with the only player you really feel confident being a pro next year in Criswell. Not unreasonable to see all others back. My gut says Criswell, Nwogu, Blomgren (underslot isn’t the fifth so a team can nab an oversigne in the second) go. Franklin is back for another shot at showing he is the $1 million+ talent that he was out of high school.
Great write up, thank you. I went to just about every home game as a season ticket holder and went to Omaha for the World Series, I appreciate your perspective. A couple comments.
Criswell - he was the best pitcher on staff for a good part of the last year, I think he’ll go in the same range as Henry/Kauffman and have a MLB career. He has a 6 game stretch to start the B1G slate where he gave up a TOTAL of 2 ERs. I could see him as a closer, he could add a few MPH to his mid 90s fastball that already has lots of movement.
Franklin has lots of raw power, especially to right field, and enough speed to steal 10-20 bases, but his arm is sub optimal, teams got the scouting report and started taking 2nd on deep fly balls to him, reminds me of Johnny Damon with much more raw power and a little less speed, I think he’s destined for left field, maybe first base(?).
Nwogu hits EVERYTHING hard, he feasts on fastballs and has a great eye to get into hitters counts. He's got the potential to be a 5 tool player, just hasn’t seen the field enough (defensively). I think he’s got the potential to be the best all around player in the B1G if he comes back. Could he play his way to the first round or two?
Blomgren... WOW! I didn’t realize people were that high on him, I’ve always appreciated him as a true “BASEBALL player.” Great glove gets to everything making plays look routine, like you said not a great arm but enough of one to make throws from deep in the hole. At the plate he works counts well, makes contact, but I just didn’t see him as a first 10 round pick, nice to know, good for him! This would be a huge void to fill if he leaves, that thought never crossed my mind until you posted this.
Donovan, what a great story he is, backbone of the team and true leader, he is not good at framing pitches, but commands the staff very well.
Dragnani, can’t wait to have him back next along with year with Hajjar. Speaking of him.. Hajjar looked good in the fall and had two dominant outings this year. Completely shut down Arizona St in his first start and had10 Ks vs Pepperdine, can’t wait to see what he brings in the future. A “Don Brown country” recruit out of Mass.
Paige doesn’t throw hard and has a low strikeout rate, pitches to contact a bit much to be succesful at a higher level IMO. That being said, he had a solid start vs Vandy and probably my favorite photo of the year, any sport, when he took the mound in that game. He ate a lot of innings as a long reliever, great asset for the next couple years.
Since you have more knowledge and connections that I, I’ve got a couple questions for the future.
what are your thoughts on Weiss? He didn’t impress me as a freshman but I’ve read a few rave reviews on him.
how about Obertop, he had a good fall and a decent start to the spring, hit the ball hard and got on base in 7 straight. If he pans out as a catcher with the kind of hitting approach he showed early on, seems like he has a bright future.
if everyone except Criswell comes back this team will be dynamic next year, although I don’t expect that to happen.
Sorry for the delay, I hope this still finds you.
To answer your questions:
Weiss has the fastball-slider combo that you see out of premier college closers. The fastball can dip into the mid-90s, and while it's not a wipeout slider, it moves and has the ability to be spun as an out-pitch. Control was and will be the issue. Maybe there is too much violence in his delivery and body control is a flag? Whatever the matter is, Fetter has the athlete and arm to develop into a standout. The staff obviously lost some trust in how they used their bullpen in Omaha, but I think he had a strong year as a true freshman. I don't foresee him moving into the rotation next year, but could be a very good back-end option, with maybe a 6-8 round draft grade.
Obertop looks good, in the limited three-game sample I had. Showed his was comfortable in the box and had the ability to get barrell to ball. That's more than enough of a foundation as a freshman, it shows the mental side and approach is there. He has the physical tools to be able to drive the ball from gap-to-gap. I can't comment on his catching ability as he was at first in all three game in Malibu, but he will have time to be molded if that's the direction they want to go, with Donovan's return.
Next year's team should be pretty stout, but right now Bakich and Co. are in a very tough spot with roster composition. The truncated draft is causing headaches. In a normal year, they would have likely had a minimum of five players picked and moving on. Now, there really isn't a sure bet outside of Criswell. It would be great for the team to return Beers, Blomgren, Franklin, Nwogu, but those roster spots and athletic aid were anticipated to be gone when they were forming the freshman class. In turn, some of those players may not get to campus, especially as the players they viewed as draft picks and had in-class insurance on, may also get to campus. It could be a matter of the draft having a great immediate affect for Michigan, but a detremential one in 2022 and beyond.