Hockey PairWise Predictor Tool Finally Available

Submitted by Charlestown Chiefs on

link: http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/

So the NCAA PairWise Predictor is up and running finally.  It allows you to fill in winners and it shows you how it affects seeding.  If I have done this correctly, UM cannot fall to less than a 3 seed and is in the tourney no matter what happens with the rest of the teams.  Even if all the autobids are stolen by teams who need them, UM still gets an at large bid.

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CarrIsMyHomeboy

March 16th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^

The PPM (pairwise probability matrix) continues to claim Michigan has a 20% chance of that final 2 seed:

(1) Using the Pairwise Predictor tool, I keep coming up with Michigan as a #3. So I'm yet to figure out which combination of events accounts for those 20% PPM odds.

Does anyone have that answer at the ready?

(2) Although there's a modest boost in terms of seeding prestige for getting that final #2, I'm not sure Michigan wants it. In which case, I'm not sure they want the first #3 either. 

I know the committee's pattern for rebracketing straight seeds to (a) avoid intra-conference matchups and (b) improve attendance, so there's some blurriness here to account for. However, if we ignore that kind of rebracketing, we acknowledge that the final #2 and first #3 seeds are probably going to be in St. Cloud State's regional. And, honestly, that's the only team I really don't want to play.

With any luck, we'll get ND's regional. That's a high seed that we match up well against.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 7324

Alton

March 16th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^

It looks like Minnesota-Duluth going 0-2 is the key to the #2 seed.  If UMD loses its semifinal against Denver and then loses the NCHC consolation game, that seems to get Michigan up to 8th place...as long as Clarkson doesn't win the ECAC.

I agree that #10 would probably be better than 8 or 9 right now.

 

Joined: 07/05/2008

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stephenrjking

March 16th, 2018 at 4:32 PM ^

The collegehockeynews.com version has been up all week. I think I inadvertently worked Michigan into a 2 once, but I don't remember how. It probably doesn't matter much, and I concur with Alton on the preferability of getting a 10. A UMD-SCSU road is real possible with an 8 or 9, and that is the kind of bracket that prompts random exclamations of "Wait till next year!"

Joined: 03/15/2012

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CarrIsMyHomeboy

March 16th, 2018 at 4:54 PM ^

Assuming SCSU retains #1 and accepting that Michigan cannot under any circumstances become a #7, I think I'm hoping it ends up like this:

8. Providence

9. UMD

10. Michigan

To stay out of SCSU's regional, it probably isn't sufficient for Michigan to be a #10. An eastern team like Providence also must *not* be a #9 (higher 3 seed), because (citing attendance concerns) Providence would probably get moved out of Sioux Falls to one of the many eastern regionals (probablly Bridgeport), which would significantly increment the probability that Michigan lands in Sioux Falls with SCSU, even as a #10.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 7324

ThatTCGuy

March 16th, 2018 at 4:55 PM ^

Honestly, whether we're a 2 or 3 seed probably doesn't matter that much considering that we're probably going to be a 2nd round exit no matter what. Next year is when Mel gets the Death Star completely operational and we win a natty!

Joined: 01/20/2015

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