2017 and 2018 recruiting
Was a little bored and feeling a little masochistic while watching football this weekend and started to look back at some of Michigan's recruiting classes. I was aware of their failures on the DL and secondary. I was not aware at what an absolute tire fire the 2017 and 2018 classes were and just how bad the misses were.
You wanna know why they are so bad now? It's because those two classes have left craters all over the roster.
Between the two classes, they brought in 50 players. 14 have transferred already, and they've only managed to find 18 contributors (4 left for the NFL already), and the rest appear to be headed for inconsequential careers as backups. To sate your curiosity, the contributors:
2017: Peoples-Jones, Ruiz, Ambry Thomas, Filiaga, Nico, Joss Ross, Stueber, Hawkins, Kwity Paye, Ben Mason
2018: Hutchinson, McGrone, Milton, Mayfield, Hayes, Barrett, Haskins, Ronnie Bell
To be clear contributor simply means they are out there piling up some meaningful stats -- doesn't necessarily mean they are good
Other highlights:
With the DL recruiting, they brought in 11 DL recruits in those classes and only hit on Paye and Hutchinson. The rest were all busts.
In the secondary, they brought in 8 recruits and really only hit on Ambry Thomas.
No TEs in 2017, two in 2018 -- both a pair of busts. This is your answer to "why don't we have any tight ends?"
FIVE recruits from Connecticut. Connecticut!!! Which is the same number they pulled in from Georgia and Florida. Just for fun...looked at 2019 and that's also 3 recruits from CT, 3 from GA, and four from FL.
So while Harbaugh manages to get a pass on the recruiting front, he really shouldn't. People only focus on the overall class rankings (2017's was ranked No. 5) and some of the big hits. But digging deeper, they've been pretty terrible as a staff at identifying talent. If you want to look for flaws with the team and program, this should be at or near the top of them. They recruit exactly like they perform on the field: a middle of the pack Big Ten team.
Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
November 9th, 2020 at 12:12 AM ^
It would be interesting to see how many people from the northeast MI got before Don Brown came over.
November 9th, 2020 at 12:59 AM ^
You've left out a crucial distinction. Don't look at DL recruits; look at DE and DT recruits. That makes the problem much more clear. Also, if you include 2019, it looks even worse (from a DE/DT standpoint).
November 9th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
Yeah, didn't get too detailed with things because I frankly didn't want to spend a ton of time figuring out again which "DE" recruits were actually projected to be DTs. Figured going 2/11 said all we needed to know.
And left out 2019 because....maybe there's still time for some of those guys to bulk up and contribute as juniors and seniors?? Hopefully???
November 9th, 2020 at 7:38 AM ^
Further evidence change is needed, not that I needed anymore evidence.
November 9th, 2020 at 7:42 AM ^
I don't get the whole anti-Northeast thing. The guys mentioned from Connecticut, Rhode Island, etc. are contributing at a higher rate than the guys from Michigan.
Tarik Black is gone, but he had 25 catches last year.
Others include potential 1st round pick Kwity Paye, starting RG/RT Andrew Stueber, FB/TE Ben Mason, etc.
If anything, the recruitment of Connecticut says...maybe we should recruit more in Connecticut and less in Michigan. (I don't mean that seriously, but the whole anti-Connecticut thing doesn't make a whole lot of sense.)
November 9th, 2020 at 8:02 AM ^
It's not even that Magnus, it's the notion that our emphasis should be the state of Michigan. Get the best players available.
November 9th, 2020 at 8:07 AM ^
Well, we have in state guys this year going to Alabama, LSU, Notre Dame, and Penn State. I'm gonna go ahead and say we should have probably made those a priority first.
November 9th, 2020 at 8:59 AM ^
Mason has highlights but seems to blow critical assignments every game.
Steuber I watched this past game and didn't look good to me.... at all... I'll wait for the UFR.
November 9th, 2020 at 11:17 AM ^
Tarik Black was someone I didn't count amongst contributors because frankly he didn't. He had 500 yards receiving in 3 seasons year and then transferred. Yes he had injuries, but that's still a bust of a recruit.
Paye is really the only success story there.
And my overall point is that they are taking a ton of fliers on guys from states like CT where football isn't a priority at all, and none of these guys are playing against any competition of note whatsoever. The staff is relying on their ability to develop them and they are striking out at a much higher rate than they are hitting leading to classes full of career non-contributors.
November 9th, 2020 at 8:30 PM ^
But that's just not true, because they are contributors. Are you saying our starting fullback, offensive guard/tackle, and defensive end are not contributors to the team? That doesn't make any sense.
I mean, there's always Luke Schoonmaker, who's apparently not as good as 50/50-to-drop-an-easy-pass Erick All.
November 9th, 2020 at 2:25 PM ^
The only region of the country that produces fewer high level players is the Rocky mountain region. Nobody in their right mind would spend so much time recruiting New England, except we have a DC that coached at UConn and BC and is from there so he pushes Michigan to sign guys who just aren't the kinds of kids Michigan should be targeting.
November 9th, 2020 at 8:39 PM ^
This only makes sense if the guys they're recruiting from the Northeast are sitting behind guys from better regions of the country, but they're not.
Ben Mason is playing ahead of Ben VanSumeren (Michigan), forcing VanSumeren to switch to defense. Andrew Stueber is playing ahead of Joel Honigford (Ohio), Trente Jones (Georgia), etc. Kwity Paye is playing ahead of Luiji Vilain (Virginia), Gabe Newburg (Ohio), Taylor Upshaw (Florida), etc.
There are young guys who have not yet taken hold of positions (Jack Stewart, Mike Sainristil, etc.), but the 2017 guys brought up in the OP are terrible examples.
Recruiting the Northeast is not the issue. The bigger curiosity is why the recruits from powerhouse states are not panning out at a higher rate. Georgia has largely been a black hole for Michigan, Michael Barrett notwithstanding (Aubrey Solomon, Kurt Taylor, Trente Jones, Wayne Lyons, Elysee Mbem-Bosse, etc.). Kids who come from California don't stick around (Kekoa Crawford, Devin Asiasi, etc.).
November 9th, 2020 at 8:05 AM ^
It was poop. Next question.
November 9th, 2020 at 8:51 AM ^
My biggest question is why have we had so many transfers and early outs. Are we promising playing time or setting the wrong expectations? Something that has always bothered me was a string of tweets from former recent players when Hill didn’t get drafted last year. They all seemed to imply there was a reason for it and tea leafs pointed to the staff. Next biggest question, WHY DID AUBRY SOLOMEN LEAVE.
November 9th, 2020 at 11:23 AM ^
All a part of recruiting too. Almost all of these guys that transferred, transferred down to a lower level. Which leads you to believe the staff missed on assessing their talent level and commitment to improving and getting better.
Likely also a result of what you said, poorly setting expectations while recruiting them and then doing a poor job of de-recruiting them once they get to campus.
November 9th, 2020 at 8:57 AM ^
Errors Jim made....
Began to wear glasses
Chose a gimmick D in Brown.
November 9th, 2020 at 9:12 AM ^
I posted this in another thread. I think it bears repeating.
JH has failed to recruit at a level to keep M top 15, maybe even top 25. I have opinions as to what is wrong that is JH specific.
My opinions are that JH has made some really weak hires in recruiting assistant coaches, not all, but too many. There also has been disorganization in the recruiting process. The most troubling thought is how much of the turmoil can be attributed to JH's personality?
Factors not specific to JH:
This was part of a previous post on this site. Following are some thoughts on player procurement from another person which were modified by me.
The concentration of the top players at the top tier schools has had an effect. Our top 10-15 rated recruiting classes are not like the Top 10 from 20 years ago. Yes, there is a second tier of teams that are getting talent, but all non-top tier schools are much closer together, and without a few extra difference-makers schools like Michigan will find it harder to separate from let's say a school like Indiana. In other words, Indiana can compete with Michigan, but not OSU.
The top tier schools' pitch is that our entire program is set up to get you in the League in 3 years. You will be able to focus 100% of your time on your craft. Lifting weights, watching film, practice. Rinse and repeat. Don’t need to attend lectures, no group projects, no BS study hall. Football! That is damned appealing if you are a 5* and think you have the potential to make $100MM in your profession. You can take those critical thinking liberal arts classes when you are done with football if you are bored and not fulfilled with your life. This pitch dominates recruiting. There are other factors, of course.
As much as we all want to assess Harbaugh and find the new coach magic dust, we have to look ourselves in the mirror and decide institutionally if we want to establish a football/basketball curriculum (hey, John Belein is around to teach a few classes) that can be taken all online. We also need to decide if we are going to aggressively support the likely NIL opportunities for players. Ross is looking for real-time experience for their students, let’s farm out the marketing department. Finally, with the likely free agent system (transfers) coming online with immediate eligibility, we have to make a commitment to be aggressive in this market. No holding up unnecessarily transfer approvals.
We have shown that we are willing to spend the money on the facilities and coaching staff. As has been said, we just have to stop with this BS of being the prostitute that refuses to work on Sunday.
November 9th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
Completely agree with this and have been saying for years that at some point soon, Michigan is going to have to fully decide what kind of program that want to be. I believe they perceive themselves as being an elite athletic school. Their facilities are that way, their pay for coaches is that way, but the rest of isn't. It's closer to Indiana than Ohio State.
It's what creates so much strife for everyone inside and outside the athletic department. The perceptions and expectations aren't matching up with reality.
November 9th, 2020 at 1:07 PM ^
Ohio State had a higher APR than UM last year.
Michigan's academic requirements for football players are no more strict than OSU's; at least, not in any meaningful way. UM's players are taking bullshit general studies majors at the same rate as OSU's.
Academics is not a valid excuse for UM trailing OSU. Time spent in the classroom, or studying, or doing homework is not a valid excuse.
There may well be some reasons related to getting a kid into the NFL in three years that are hindering UM; but they are not related to academic ability or progress. All this information is freely available; you can look up the required GPA to stay eligible at both schools, you can look up what majors the players are taking, you can look up APR, etc. etc. This is just a lazy, false narrative.
November 9th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
I know this has been joked about but I honestly think hiring Brady Hoke as a Dline coach would have been a good choice after his stint with Tennessee in 2017 or after Greg Mattison left. The dude can recruit and develop Dlinemen.
November 9th, 2020 at 10:32 AM ^
Recruiting hasn't been as good as we needed it to be and the attrition has weakened the talent further. I just looked up the Ohio State depth chart on offense and the gap between us and them could not be greater, they have like 16 top 100 players in their 2 deep on offense alone, we have 1 in Charbonnet, who frankly looks like he was overrated.
Hinton was a 5 star DT, he has a year under his belt, he should be started to be dominant, he has no impact plays this year through 3 games and only 2 solo tackles.
Here's the point we're at, we have zero offensive players who would start for Ohio State, zero! We have Daxton Hill and maybe Cameron McGrone who start on Ohio State's defense. That's it, I don't think Paye of Hutchinson is starting on OSU's D Line which features a 5 star and another top 100 DE.
All 4 stars are not created equal, low 4 stars like Filliaga and Steuber, are not close in talent to guys like Onwenu, Ruiz, and Bredenson and it shows.
November 9th, 2020 at 11:31 AM ^
Buckeyes are also very good at hitting on not only the guys at the top of their classes, but also people at the bottom.
November 9th, 2020 at 12:00 PM ^
Agree, and here's why, when OSU gets a 3 star, he's a take to them because they think he's better than a number of 4 stars they could have if they wanted. When a lot of schools take a 3 star, it's because they couldn't get a 4 star.
And of those 16 top 100 players they have in their 2 deep on offense, a full 8 of the were 5 stars, 8! The difference in high end talent is massive.
November 9th, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^
Wow, what a wrong post; stick with dead meat, you seem confused on the athletic live stuff :)
First off: Jeter and Vilian belong from '17
'18? Green is our best corner, Turner, Welshof, Upshaw have put up numbers in limited opportunities and just because they are playing like crap right now doesn't make Grey or VanSumeren a "miss" they are what their ranking said they were.
And since the majority of the players from '18 are far EXCEDING their "recruiting ranking", I'd say they have been better than most at "identifying talent".
And the most important thing is the one you glanced over the quickest:
Of the 14 transfers, why were TWELVE from the '17 class?
Or, why did so many recruits from '16 and '17 transfer when Harbaugh went 10-3,10-3 & 8-4 but not that many transfer from the '11 and '12 classes even though Hoke went 8-5, 7-6 & 5-7?
If you research who recruited the players that transferred you see a pattern of "bad fits" and holes that started when Harbaugh gave to much control to make sure Rashan Gary didn't decommit.
The '16 and '17 classes were "unfit" which made their imaginary ranking number created from limited imperfect data even less useful than most years.
Since '18 they've received commits from a lot of guys that seem to really want to be here and won't all bail quick *but will stick it out* like Hoke's recruits did; and that's really gonna help when you psychos runnoft the current coaching staff.
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