Saturday Psycho: Stay or Go
Have we been here before? Deja vu all over again?
The team has been in this same spot in the last few years but their fortune's have changed quickly each time we play this Wisconsin team, so what might be different this year?
Quite simply, this team for the first time in 5 years has great leadership.
Let's look at the numbers:
In 2017, after the mass exodus of talent to the NFL and influx of young talent from our allegedly great recruiting classes, UofM was very young with only 34% of the roster made of upperclassmen that joined through recruiting. From there a team will normally get progressively older, unfortunately for Michigan the large amount of transfers from the '16 & '17 classes meant we stayed young and never cultivated leadership:
In 2018, only 40% of the roster was upperclassmen; 2019, 42%; 2020 41%.
Add to that the 2019 team had lost 30% of the vaunted 2017 before they were Juniors! It was even worse in 2020, where only 17/59 (28%) of the '16 & '17 classes were left. 2019 only had ONE super senior (5th year or more) and 2020 only had five and two were kickers! This left a huge hole in leadership, which makes sense considering they couldn't win big games.
So what's different?
No 1: Finally this year the roster has matured, 49% of the roster are upperclassmen; including seven super seniors: starting MLB, starting Safety, starting C, starting LT, 5th OLmen, 3rd TE, 3rd DT and punter. . And even though there are only 11 seniors left from the 2018 class, nine of them are starters! Keep in mind none of theses players would have been blamed for leaving the program in the last year after a 2-4 season and a coach's hot seat, but they decided to stay.
As a matter of fact, you could say 2018-2020 were defined by "those who GO", here's hoping this season can be defined by "Those who Stay".
As a matter of fact, there's even precedent to believe this could be a special Harbaugh team, because he's done it before AT Michigan. Both 2015 and 2016 were full of "Those who Stay":
2015 was 61% upperclassmen and 47/52 (90%!) players from the '12 & '13 high ranked classes were still on the team. 2016 was only 49% upperclassmen but they had 10! super seniors and 25/52 players from the '12 & '13 classes still on the team. No wonder they were the better team against OSU that year. Defined by "Those who Stay"
2016: .4936 percent upper classmen
2021: .4935 percent upper classmen
Spooky.
Not sure how far they can go, but I sure am glad they are still here.
Those who Stay....
October 2nd, 2021 at 12:02 PM ^
Solid take. May or may not be relevant (see Punt-Counterpunt), but very solid insight.
October 2nd, 2021 at 12:40 PM ^
Holy shit
?
October 2nd, 2021 at 1:05 PM ^
That home crowd is about to be hostile…
to Wisconsin
October 2nd, 2021 at 1:58 PM ^
Welp, dominant 1st half slips away before Gattis & Cade can put it away, no surprise.
This is where that experience and leadership is needed most, the boys are gonna have to do it for themselves. The coaches don't seem to be helping too much.
October 2nd, 2021 at 3:36 PM ^
Shop smart. Shop S Mart.
Great post. Those who stay...beat Wisconsin in Camp Randall!
October 2nd, 2021 at 4:08 PM ^
Let's keep it going!
October 2nd, 2021 at 8:17 PM ^
If I go there will be trouble. But if I stay it will be double.
October 2nd, 2021 at 8:44 PM ^
This is fascinating. Your assessment makes a lot of sense. Let's hope we continue to see the results play out on the field.
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:35 AM ^
2016 had some great players who helped fuel the run in 2018, but was full of hit or miss players looking over the roster for 2016, you either have big impact multi-year starters OR dudes who did very little and left. This may be a reflection of the way college football now works, but this class feels like a little too much in the wild swings department.
2017 was basically a disaster.
The much maligned 2018 class is still, for the most part, here and producing pretty well.
I think Michigan is still searching to find the perfect balance in recruiting between the headline-grabbers and the solid dudes who will produce after a few years of cooking and be around as seniors. With the transfer portal, finding this balance is going to be harder but not impossible and it's probably Michigan's path to success the way it has been for Wisconsin and Iowa, just hopefully with a few bigger fish every now and then.
October 3rd, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
I agree.
My assessment is Partridge was offering everybody early playing time and the 3 and out path to the NFL. Worked out great for some, (i.e. Ruiz) but the ones that didn't get that early playing time became malcontents, especially in '18; and even though most were gone by '19 & '20 there were few left to lead the young talent.
#Goonsquad19 becoming juniors brought the balance.
October 3rd, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^
Just read this on Sunday. I predict/ed that, thanks to STAY leadership, Michigan will/won.
October 3rd, 2021 at 12:17 PM ^
If you want to be the best, gotta be leaders first, right?
I mean, it's in our fight song.
November 20th, 2021 at 12:02 PM ^
Dantonio won games with redshirt seniors for years. So did Bo before so many kids went to the NFL early. It’s why NW went from good to terrible in one year.
Michigan is in that not quite OSU talent reload level but still gets hit with more early departures than most Big Ten teams.
Comments