Reverse-engineering the FFFF diagrams

Submitted by dragonchild on October 12th, 2023 at 1:39 PM

I'm not MGoStaff but I've read a lot of these, and I feel like there's a lot of confusion with regards to how stars are handed out.  That said, I feel they've been pretty consistent, so here's a summary:
 

CYANS are OBJECTIVE, in as much as this is FBS-level football.  The primary caveat is if everyone is terrible, they don't want to cyan the entire roster (what would be the point), so they'll hunt for excuses to avoid doing so, making some cyan-worthy players appear better than they are.  Otherwise, a cyan'd player is a walking harbinger of Bad Things.  He could still probably dominate a beer league, but is going to earn only infamy in a nationally televised game.  (But these days cyans can also be handed out as jokes.  Point is, FFFF is not scientific.)

INDIVIDUAL STARS are RELATIVE.  OK folks, pay attention.  Star does not mean "elite", per se.  It means you look at the squad like you were a scout and say to yourself, "OK, whom do I have to worry about."  For example, Jaylin Lucas may not be that great of a player, I don't know, but he's by far the most dangerous player on Indiana's offense, so the star really means "pay attention to that guy".  He's a focal point.  A "star" on a mediocre team could project as a UDFA, if everyone else is playing at the FCS or high school level.  The same player wouldn't get a star at all on a ranked team, because. . .

MULTIPLE STARS [in a position group] are RELATIVE, but in a different way.  This is the "rule" that in my experience leads to the most grumbling.  Ostensibly the premise of a star is that a player stands out, but when everyone is good, no one stands out, so everyone within a position group might out-talent their opponent and yet no one gets a star, whereas the opponent gets one.  That does not necessarily mean the opponent's star player is better than everyone in the opposing group!  So the usual complaint goes, "Normy McNormface gets a star but Mich O'Homer doesn't?  OUTRAGE!!!1!"  Well, that's because although Mich might be a better player than Normy, he doesn't stand out because everyone on his team is equally better.  For multiple players in a position group to earn stars they need to be elite, the kind that routinely rack up +2s in UFR.  Kris Jenkins is like that, so he gets a star even though he plays next to Mason Graham.  He's just that good.

What this means is that it is harder for a player on a well-performing group to earn a star than a player on an underperforming one.  It also means a position group with multiple stars is legitimately formidable.

SHIELDS are OBJECTIVE. . . mostly?  Shield means you are grading out as one of the best few players in the country at your position.  Not merely "very good" or even "elite", but very likely getting drafted first or second in your position group.  Kris Jenkins (#16 per PFF, IIRC) is a very good player but Mason Graham (#2 per PFF) is one of the best DTs in all of college football, so Graham gets a shield and Jenkins doesn't.  In fact while I'm a big Sainristil fan, I wonder why he got a shield.  Darn good player and thank god he's a Wolverine?  Hellz yeah.  One of the best 2-3 slot corners in the country?  Ehhh. . . I'll never get tired of watching his endzone PBU against Ohio State, but just last week he beat straight-up by a non-elite receiver.  I don't think he's a Day One draft pick.

 

That's how I see it, anyway.  Maybe someone will chime in and go, "Bad dragonchild!  As an MGoUser, you are
!"

 

Despite all my rage I am still just sighin' in my cage. . .

Comments

bighouseinmate

October 13th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^

Eh, a Cyan for a poster should be earned not just by goofs or misspellings, but also by posting poor content. For the most part that I’ve seen, your posting content has been intelligent and thoughtful, even if I sometimes disagree. 
 

As an aside, that’s why I avoid the game threads because they are filled with way too many message board posters who should have a cyan around their profile pic. 

S.G. Rice

October 12th, 2023 at 2:25 PM ^

I'm not really sure how you can say cyans are objective, when so much of it seems to be eye test (i.e. subjective), but at the same time, okay, cool, hook 'em.

JHumich

October 12th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^

Meh... 

Star them all, shield a few. Maybe wait a minute on Coulson's star.

We're that good. We should enjoy it every way that we can, including in weekly graphics.

Qmatic

October 12th, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^

Honestly at this point, our FFFF defense should look like OSU's 2021 offense where I believe 10 players were starred and the only one who wasn't was Ruckert who was a star down. They had I think 7 players shielded; Stroud, all 3 receivers, Jones (who Hutchinson pancaked), Petit-Frere who Ojabo spun into oblivion, and (lol) Henderson.

Going by those standards I would have at this point:
Shield: Graham, Sainristil. (Eventually Johnson and Jenkins again, maybe a healthy Moore.)
Star: Jenkins, McGregor, Barrett, Moore, Johnson.
Verge of star: Colson and Harrell
Solid: Paige and Wallace

cappy412

October 12th, 2023 at 2:51 PM ^

I've also wondered about Sainristil's shield but in the PFF Midseason All-American post from yesterday they had him as an honorable mention at the nickel, and the diagram does say the shield is for "All-American-Caliber" players. So I suppose it fits!

Seth

October 12th, 2023 at 7:31 PM ^

They're really there to serve one need: preview the game in a way that fans will be able to pick things out while watching on saturday.

Cyans are trouble spots. You saw #71 for Minnesota. There are different thresholds for shielding a guy based on his position and it's somewhat relative to his team. But it's more about how the guy affects the game. Minnesota could run except when the run got to #71. They couldn't pass because #71. When you saw a lineman thrown into the backfield you check and see if it's #71, because it means less if it's him.

Stars are dangermen. They're relative, but only so much because teams will lean on their best players. A star on Michigan is probably a lot better than a star for Indiana. If you see a star that guy bends the game around him somehow: a receiver they will pass to whenever he gets man coverage. A running back who is getting a lot of yards himself. A safety you want to stay away from. On bad teams the best player tends to really stand out.

Shields are the least objective. All-Americans, likely 1st rounders, guys the nation is talking about. Chop Robinson is probably going to get one. Marvin Harrison is definitely getting one.

Early in the season we don't know which teams are really that good. We watch the games, see which players mean something, and put that on the chart.

dragonchild

October 12th, 2023 at 8:05 PM ^

Thanks for the clarification. A few people might take the “who deserves what” arguments too seriously, but it’s probably 99% banter and this diary was just an extension of that.

Wait, shields are least objective?

P.S. My pet definition differs from “1st rounder” because the NFL doesn’t value every position equally. The best RB in the country might well be a Day 2 pick. So I said “first taken at that position”.

EGD

October 13th, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^

Sainristil reminds me of Tyrann Mathieu when he was at LSU. The guy just has a way of making spectacular things happen. I don't watch NFL football and don't have any idea how well his skills will translate to the next level. But he definitely shield-worthy at this one IMO.

dragonchild

October 13th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^

Eye test of an amateur and all that, but to me, Sainristil is Keisei Tominaga the Football Player.  A crafty, twitchy, savvy mighty-mite who plays out of his mind every second he's out there, and tears up the college game as a result.

But he is still a mite, lacking the size, speed, and power to match truly elite athletes.  In a game where everyone's a monster, like the NFL, I don't see that "make up for size with spirit" lasting long.  We've seen lots of great college players not amount to anything in the NFL.