Projecting Michigan's 2008 Recruiting Class
I know Brian has already done extensive coverage of Michigan's recruiting, but I figured I'd take my own stab at projecting the Class of '08. Before I made my guesses, I went through 11 years of Michigan recruiting data (covering 1993-2003) to see trends in how the average recruiting class turns out. Revelations included:
- 22% of recruits end up getting drafted, which is way higher than I would have thought
- Just about as many end up being All-Big Ten
- Half the guys who leave early for the NFL go undrafted. The other half go in the first round. (This doesn't include Manningham/Arrington, both of whom fall in the middle but also fall outside the years I was looking at).
- Almost 40% of scholarship recruits don't make it through their full eligibility.
- You're just as likely to show your bits to girls on Minerva Street as you are to win the Heisman
August 5th, 2008 at 12:52 AM ^
This is why I love the internet. For years the only Michigan football coverage I could ever get was from our local newspaper and since I live on the west coast - I ain't gettin much. This is the first time I have ever learned anything about Michigan recruiting. I just always assumed Michigan got the players that they wanted. I do not know who in this class will end up as a 1st team Big Ten player let alone get drafted. For the first time I actually get to read interesting stuff like this. Because of all the work that you bloggers do- I event went out and bought a big old plasma tv and am looking forward to the Big Ten Network way out here. Going to be fun to watch and read as the season goes. With that said.........
With the new system on offense- which I am not sure is conducive to NFL football- I would say that most of the NFL draftees will be on the defensive side of the ball- Boubacar, Martin and Witherspoon. Tiny lightening fast waterbugs on offense will be fun to watch in High Def but I don't believe will translate into the NFL
but I would move Kenny Demens up the list. He technically sound, makes a lot of tackles and misses very, very few, he's smart, and can flat out lay the wood. You're going to be pleasantly surprised by this kid. He's going to be a great middle linebacker.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:58 AM ^
I can't agree with Shaw, Floyd and Khoury. UM will bring at most two guys on OL this year, and Khoury will at least (unless he sucks) be a very serviceable and active backup. Shaw has too much talent ans speed to ignore, but you make a good point that he just could be the odd man out. But somehow other big boys manage to keep all their weapons happy.
Floyd is already very highly regarded by the staff. So much so that the #1 jersey...so unless he just flat out stinks it up, he'll be a contributor. Most of the stuff that came out on him at Scout by insiders was that he was among the hardest workers in the off season (on his own, not an early enrollee IIRC).
I don't think RR came here to run the WVU-Pat White spread if the QB's he is going after are any indication. Thus, they'll find a way with Koger. Moore, yeah, not so much. Odd man out again.
The rest of them, I would say, your guess is as good as anybody's!
August 5th, 2008 at 12:25 PM ^
I actually thought I was rather conservative, though I could see (obviously) how many of them could be open to debate. The Shaw pick will either make me look somewhat smart or a complete idiot. Same with Floyd, although (from a complete outsider's perspective) I haven't ever been that excited about him.
I actually think Moore has a better chance of being an impact player in RichRod's system than Koger. Koger seems like more of the prototype TE, while Moore may just become a massive wideout who poses huge matchup problems for opposing defenses. At the same time, he could be a huge bust.
Most of my picks just came down to trying to have my guesses fit the numbers I found in the previous post, so I had to make some choices that I really had to convince myself of first (if that makes any sense). I was quite excited when we got Demens, Floyd, and Koger, but they didn't make the 15 guys I would most expect to stick given our current roster and coaching staff. With Khoury (and Omameh) I just found that for the most part, there's at least one or two o-linemen in each class that never see the field and disappear into the ether.
Thanks for checking the post out and giving me feedback. The whole point of this thing was to spark some debate, and of course I'm personally rooting for all 24 guys to somehow contribute. It just usually doesn't work that way.
August 5th, 2008 at 12:42 PM ^
I'm sorta hoping we can talk Koger into playing DE. He was supposed to be really good in HS.
Shaw is probably my "favorite" player in the class (I can't tell you why, I know almost nothing about him) - but he's got crazy wheels and great hands. I think that he could be the closest thing to a Percy Harvin "put him anywhere on the field" type of player. Mcguff is cool and all, but it seems like his hands limit him largely to RB.
I jumped pretty heavily onto the T-Rob bandwagon, and I think Odoms could be just as good, which is why I left Shaw out. I just think McGuffie will be the better player out of the backfield for this team. However, there is the distinct possibility that this offense is just able to use way more skill players (it certainly seems that way), which would make my predictions somewhat harsh. RichRod will probably be more willing (and able) than Lloyd to go with several guys at the same position who will all see the field. If that is the case, I certainly think Shaw will be a good player. For the sake of my argument, he just happened to be left out.
Ace - I'm not pretending to be right - that would be moronic of me. Everyone has their own little player who, based largely, I think, on ignorance, they decide to champion. I'm irrationally exuberant about Shaw.
I'm the same way about T-Rob. I have images of a winged-helmeted Percy Harvin dancing in my head. Shaw could very well be that guy as well, I just love Robinson for some reason.
Because of this, I fully expect Martavious Odoms to start in the slot for four years, become an All-American, and win the Heisman while T-Rob and Shaw transfer after never seeing the field.
Player in the class most likely to find a cure for AIDS: Ricky Barnum.
Player must likely to absolve 3rd world debt: JB Fitzgerald.
So really, my prediction of Michael Shaw as "the next Percy Harvin" is faint praise.
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