Great diary.

I'm a little stronger in the Beilein camp than your data suggests I should be, but it's always nice to have stats to back you up.

This team has vastly exceeded my expectations this year.  1-3 in conference to start is better than I expected.  Heartbreaking losses to top 3 teams, while still loses, showed this team will be a force next year and may have a chance to be a top-3 B10 team.

The future is bright, no doubt.

Agree, you have to look at the future, and it looks bright.  When coach B. starts bringing in better recruits and starts winning against tougher and more  talented teams, it'll all come together.  This program is on the rise.

College Basketball is all about recruiting.  Yes players can be developed, but convincing the high-end players to come your school has proven over and over again to breed success.  As the data show, Beilein has steadily improved his recruiting classes.  Hopefully, one day, a highly ranked big man will decide to come to AA. 

Given the expectations for a very young team (no seniors in a very deep, talented Big Ten), Beilein seems to be doing a great job. They were picked to finish at the bottom of the conference, and already they look to be somewhere more towards the middle, with the aforementioned several close games with national powers. In fact, most experts think they will surprise a top team or two before the season is out, and I tend to agree. This program seems to be solidly headed in the right direction by a number of indicators as well as the general feeling I get as a fan.

Beilein has a longer rope mainly because he took something that was way down and bumped it up quickly and is rebuilding with obvious future success. RR took something that was declining but still "up" (perception rather than reality) and demolished it. Now, I'm one who thought RR deserved a fourth year and that 2011 would be his D-Day, but 15-22 when the previous three seasons before his arrival were 27-12 is a big disappointment.

I think if RR could have been "competitive" in more games, esp. versus that school in Ohio, he might still be here. Even when JB is losing games, he's taking top-3 schools to the brink, and that shows progress.

This year I don't see Michigan making the tournament.  Right now they are just too green.  They compete to the highest level every game but they just don't have what it takes to beat the teams that have more talent then them (as was witnessed in losses to Kansas and OSU).  They can get close but they aren't over that hump yet.

Maybe they will prove me wrong, make a run during the middle part of this season or win the Big Ten Tournament to get in.  For now though, the 2011-12 season is when they make the tournament and get at least past the first two rounds.

That was an enjoyable read.  All in all, I'm encouraged by the progress Beilein has made.  I don't like the feeling out there (not from you) that UM bball was a barren wasteland before he got here. 

The thing that bothers me is how he handled some of the players he inherited.  I thought Kelvin Grady and Ekpe Udoh could have been useful pieces if used in a way that best suited them.  I don't like the idea of the system being more important than the players, but I think that is what Bill Martin went for with Beilein (and Rodriguez) so that's just the way it is.  Rodriguez probably would have made similar progress as Beilein given the time, but the stage and situations just aren't the same, as mentioned above.

Anyway, I enjoy watching this team and think they will become a 2 out of 3 years NCAA team within the next two years.  That is exciting to me.  I also enjoy the fact that a 6'3" (at best) player continues to prove to be our best power forward, no matter how we start every season with someone else in the spot. 

While I feel strongly that RichRod had a better chance of getting Michigan to a nationally-competitive level, that Beilein more closely mirrors what we can expect and will accept from Hoke, and that you've understated the disappointment of last season--yea, I know "it was Manny's fault"--, I do truly appreciate your work and analysis.  It has made me rethink some of my conclusions and is representitive of the good work many do on this site.

Thanks.

for Michigan basketball.  I can wait.  Even though I love college basketball, I think most of us could agree that it is just not the same as football at UM.  Also, keep in mind that we have lost 3 close games to the number 1, 2, and 3 ranked teams in the country right now.  I know "almost" doesn't count, but I am extremely encouraged by the defensive play and bursts of offense we have seen so far.  Consistency will come with age.

But my expectations are a bit higher.  I would expect a level 4 (20+ wins, top half of conference, solid NCAA bid) at a minimum most seasons with an occasional level 3 and an occasional level 5 year.  This is a basketball program that was at the level in the past, not an elite team like Duke, Kansas, NC or Kentucky, but a top 20 or so team most years.

Beilein is in year 4 and isn't meeting this minimum expectation.  He's coming off a level 2 year and optimistically is looking at a level 2.5 year.

Why?  Well, I don't think it's coaching.  Beilein's a great coach.  His teams are enjoyable to watch since they are disciplined and fundamentally sound.  It's all about talent.  Beilein's recruiting has been significantly subpar given the above expectations.  Like you, I wouldn't count the first class which was recruited by Amaker.  He has yet to land a top 50 recruit - and doesn't seem likely to with the incoming class.  The top teams in the Big Ten are light years ahead of Michigan in recruiting.  Beilein's recruiting is improving (as your graphs illustrate) but only because his initial recruiting class was so abysmal.  He has landed a few top 100 gems and the talent is improving but it will be difficult to compete as a top tier Big Ten program (level 4) without better talent.  Maybe his coaching will do the trick but I'm not convinced.

I do enjoy watching his teams and hope for the best.  I would give him more time given some reason to hope for better.  But if his teams aren't at a level 3 next year and a level 4 in 2 more years (solid NCAA tourney bid in 2012),  I think Michigan should look for a new coach.  

I think this year was pivotal towards Beilein's overall evaluation.  His first year he had no expectations; his second year he exceeded expectations, and last year we were well below expectation.  

However, in what seemed like a relatively sunk and hopeless year, we have a lot to be encouraged about thus far.  Will it lead to wins in the Big 10? I hope so.  At this point, other than the loss to UTEP (who is 14-4 and overall not a bad team), we've lost to 4 top 10 teams (pending Purdue's ranking after the loss last night), and Wisconsin @ Wisconsin, where no one wins. Our worst games were Purdue and Wisconsin, where were were competitive for 20-30 minutes before the wheels came off.

It is clear that Beilein is starting to get more talent to work with, with Hardaway, Smotrcyz, Horford this year and Brundige and Burke next year, along with the developments of Morris, Morgan, etc.  Is it elite talent? I guess not, but he hasn't needed that in the past to be a factor in the NCAA tournament.  So overall, he's really answering the bell this year, otherwise I think there would be whispers about his job..

I've fallen into the "been down so long it looks like up to me" rut.  Let Beilein keep going...this team is probably overacheving in regard to expectations, and they are making it close in games with big competition.  Get the new facilities up and see if he can get some recruits in.

I believe that when a university has a strong BB team it actually can help their football team as well due to the extra "free" advertisement.  Just take a look at the B10 teams like OSU and MSU.  Take a look at our own history.  Most of the guys that were juniors and seniors on our 1997 National Championship team were recruited during the FabFive era.  Don't mention Florida, Texas and others.  It will benefit our football team tremendously if we had a strong basketball team.  To see those miaze jerseys running up the floor in March/April would be exciting.

I believe that when a university has a strong BB team it actually can help their football team as well due to the extra "free" advertisement.  Just take a look at the B10 teams like OSU and MSU.  Take a look at our own history.  Most of the guys that were juniors and seniors on our 1997 National Championship team were recruited during the FabFive era.  Don't mention Florida, Texas and others.  It will benefit our football team tremendously if we had a strong basketball team.  To see those miaze jerseys running up the floor in March/April would be exciting.

@UMHoops: There are just four undefeated teams left. Michigan has lost to three of them by a combined total of 14 points.

http://twitter.com/umhoops/status/25949737920237568

But if he doesn't make the tournament this year shouldn't Dave Brandon go steal SDSU's head coach Steve Fisher. It would be a Michigan Man returning. Plus we'd have the added affect of crippling another University's athletic department again  á la WVU circa 2007-08.

Beilein is very good at what he does. I'm just yet sure what he does is that good -- for us.

For most intents and purposes, he have one "BIG" on the roster: Jordan Morgan. Smotrycz has size but can't play with his back to the basket, Horford still needs to beef up to bang, Christian is not ready, and McLimans, right now, does not look like ever should have been offered a scholarship.

With next year's recruiting class consisting of two guys no taller than 6'2", you'd have to say this is poor roster management. We simply can't play winning basketball with some of these small lineups Beilein plays with at times.

I have been debating for a week to write something about the status of the mens bball team.  Decided it was better to cool off from the football fiasco so it wouldn't taint my feelings about where Beilein has this program.  I grew up watching this team throughout the 80's and 90's when they were a consistent top 25 team.  Because of this, I have far higher expectations than people who have followed the program for the past decade.

A couple observations:

1) The team is better now than when he started. Fact - instead of averaging losses by 15 - 20 per game in year one to top teams, they now lose by 4 - 8 points per game to top teams.  (not being sarcastic, that is true)

2) His gaurd recruiting is very encouraging (specifically, Morris, Hardaway Jr, Brundige, and Burke)

3) His willingness to revamp the staff after last year, and find new quality assistants.

4) He runs his programs with integrity and fans can, and should, be proud of how he manages his team

What I continue to be concerned about watching this program is will John Beilein be able to take this program to the next level to get back to a consistent top 25, sweet 16 team.

1) The common argument is that this is a young team.  A young team in basketball is very different from a young team in football.  Many teams consistently utilize freshman and sophmores in key roles in college basketball.  You just won't see a team of primarily all juniors and seniors in college basketball at a major institution (and Michigan is a major institution). 

2) This team consistently plays to the level of its competition (good or bad).  This is not the sign of a good team.  A good team plays with consistency and has an occasional on or off night.

3) Michigan is consistently overmatched athletically.  An institution like Michigan should not be overmatched athletically against anyone.

Overall, I think John Beilein is a good coach, I would have hoped for at least one signature win out of this team by now this year.  Instead the team has had signature moral victories.  That is not the standard any Michigan fan should accept.

right direction.  Having said that, aren't we suppose to wait until the end of the season to evaluate the coach? :)

If you want the success of John Calipari you need to be dirty like Calipari.   There are very few teams that can be squeeky clean and compete at that level every year.  Duke is the only one I can think of.  Even UNC has been sucking for two years now.  Would you say that Roy Williams should be let go?

Wolverine basketball hasn't been on the map for a long time.  It's there again and not as a speed bump.  NIT this year and NCAA next year.  If I'm right, that will be two NCAA trips in 5 years after not being there for a decade.