The Long Introduction

MGoBlog came into my life nine years ago, and I've been an addict ever since.

During the fall semester of my junior year in college, I studied abroad in Rome, Italy. I lived within walking distance of the Vatican, a short bus ride from the Forum and Colosseum, and a cheap flight on Ryanair to basically anywhere I wanted in Europe for a quick weekend. Yet, despite the endless, once-in-a-lifetime opportunities right at my fingertips, I yearned to be back in the Midwest because it was where football was on the tips of all the tongues.

As luck would have it, two of my best friends from Ann Arbor were also studying abroad in the eternal city (one a diehard Michigan fan like me, the other a Michigan fan until he went to MSU for college), and we would venture every Saturday evening to an Irish watering hole that played the Michigan games so as long as we (a) got there early enough to find a television that hadn't been tuned to another specific sporting event, and (b) bought enough beer.

In retrospect, I'm ashamed I squandered so many hours watching football that year. More specifically, I'm ashamed I squandered so many hours watching that year's Michigan football team. It was 2013, and––after the Wolverines bested Notre Dame (the irony of cheering against the Irish in an Irish pub is not lost on me) in a game that immortalized Devin Gardner––it was a mostly miserable season. Michigan scraped past Akron and UConn by a combined margin of seven points, lost in quadruple overtime to Penn State, suffered a demolition at the hands of Michigan State, fell by a combined margin of seven points to Nebraska and Iowa, and broke our hearts with a last-second, one-point loss against Ohio State.

Irregardless of how depressing it all was, though (or perhaps, in part, because of how depressing it all was), I found myself, as happens every fall, wanting to talk college football around the clock. I only saw my two high school buddies on the weekends, so there was limited opportunities to break down games with them. One of my roommates was a college football fan, but he was also a Longhorn, and I found talking to a Big 12 fan about college football more challenging than learning Italian that semester. I was in the same academic program as several Minnesota Golden Gophers, but their season was so catastrophic that none of them even followed their team. I felt a hole; I felt this deep need to absorb as much info about Michigan football as I possibly could. What "they" say really did prove to be true: absence (in this case, the absence of a certain discourse on Michigan football) makes the heart grow fonder.

So, like any good millennial, I hopped on the Internet. Expectantly, ESPN was lacking in the substantive content department, and after minimal Google searching I stumbled across this very blog. I marveled at the meticulously detailed play-by-play analyses of Under Further Review. I reveled in reliving the weekend's emotions with One Frame at a Time. I commended the candid assessments of opponents provided by Fee Fi Fo Film. But perhaps what won me over most was the quality of writing. Brian, Ace, Seth, and all others could clearly turn a phrase, and I––as someone who was working towards a career as a writer––deeply respected that. I think it remains rare to this day to find sports journalists/bloggers who I actually want to read when they write about... well, when they write about anything, even the sports that I love. The fact that these guys had me hooked when they wrote about mundane, everyday occurrences in their life was truly a blessing. I came for the content, but I stayed for the quality.

All this is to say that I've really wanted to give back to the blog, but I’ve never quite known how to do that. I tried to engage in the comments sections here and there (I think my username was originally blue_blooded92; not sure what happened there), but always felt like I wasn't bringing anything of value to the table. I had a conversation with one of my friends in 2015, after graduating college and moving back into my parents' basement for a couple months before moving to Los Angeles, about propositioning the blog to let me start covering the hockey team (the coverage was more sparse back then than it is now, and I grew up a hockey fan as much as I grew up a football fan). I always wanted to donate money to show some support, but having lived more or less paycheck to paycheck all of my adult life, that felt fiscally foolish.

So, this year, in an attempt to rekindle the passion I once had for writing (long story short: the pandemic helped nail home that a career as a screenwriter was not for me for various reasons, and I've since done very little writing and spent most of my time instead being an overqualified substitute teacher and overly competitive intermediate online chess player), I created a new MGoBlog account (but somehow failed to choose a username and have thus outed my identity so if you know me say hi), acquired the requisite points to create content (100 feels like a surprisingly low bar), told my soon-to-be wife to expect to be mad at me for spending even more time focusing on sports on my computer (she's reached a point of begrudgingly asking how my fantasy football team is doing, which is great), and clicked "Create Content".

So are you going to stop writing this backstory that no one gives a hoot about and tell the people what content you're actually going to create for them?

Wait, what? No, you can't––

Seriously, what is that? Five hundred wasted words?

Actually, 938, but you need to leave.

You need to get to the point.

I'm serious. I can't have an alter ego. That's such an MGoBlog cliché.

Ah! But I'm an italicized alter ego, not a bolded one. Very, very different.

That seems like an irrelevant distinction. I haven't even established a base ego with which to have arguments with an alter ego. How can you exist if I barely exist?

I was summoned from the ether when it was determined by the cosmos that someone had to tell you to move things along.

Go. Please.

Wasn't planning on sticking around anyway. I'm sure whatever follows will be equally as turd-like as what I just read. If anyone is still reading this, don’t listen to this man!

BE GONE!!!

The Point

One thing my writing professors (J. Christ, I have so many decisions to atone for) used to say all the time was that you should write what no one else is writing and write what you want to read. Ideally, this diary will be original, and ideally I (and maybe some other people) will read it.

I've recently developed an interest/love/addiction in/of/to gambling. An astute reader who's stuck with me this far might now be wondering, Isn’t he living paycheck to paycheck? Gambling probably isn’t a very smart thing to do if he’s living paycheck to paycheck. Allow me to offer two points to assuage your concerns: [1] I'm not living paycheck to paycheck anymore. I get paid well enough as a teacher for the time being, thankfully have no student loans to pay off, and have a soon-to-be-wife who is a doctor (note: I do not gamble her money, just my own). [2] I gamble in very small amounts. I never bet more than $5 on any single event (but for Iowa Unders), and won't bet more than $50 a week. Even if I lose a few dollars each week, I find it's a worthy investment in order to make random football games much more fun to watch, which greatly increases the amount of fun I have sitting alone in my living room on the weekend. (Who knew how entertaining UCF-Louisville on a Friday night in September could be?)

Furthermore, I've noticed that there's very little discussion of betting in the channels of this blog (probably for the better). I've heard Jamie Mac Of Just Cover Blog How Ya Doin Jamie? bring up some player props on the MGoPodcast recently, but I'm (fairly) certain Brian is not a bettor at all, and I don't recall any of the other main dogs playing the ponies much either (though if you put a gun to my head, I'd probably say Drain likes to let it ride). Thus, it seemed––especially with the swell in sports betting and its semi-recent legalization in Michigan––this was a void I could nuzzle my way into, and maybe snag a couple thumbs up for a weekly ego boost from MGoBlog fans who are thirsty for any content related to their beloved team.

The Obligatory Statement

I want to stress that this diary is ideally intended for entertainment than it is for profitable gambling advice. Gamble responsibility. Do your own research. Take my advice with many grains of salt, because I truthfully have no clue what I'm talking about. You’ve been warned.

The Week Before

I'll use this section to break down how I performed last week, and how I've performed in the season in general, so you know whether or not you should ride me or fade me.

I'm hesitant to even include this section in my first post because last week was a disaster.

(Note: I'll put the game, the spread/total I bet on, the result [Win/Loss/Push], and what the spread/total ended up being.)

• Maryland at Michigan (-16.5) [Loss] (-7)

• Maryland at Michigan (Over 62.5) [Loss] (61)

• Iowa at Rutgers (Under 35.5) [Loss] (37)

I had some others, too, but they weren't Big Ten bets, so we'll exclude those because this diary will only focus on how I'd bet the Big Ten. (Also, most failed, so... wait, you’re still reading?)

Still, those bets on the totals were damn close (both 2 points away from hitting) and if JJ hits one deep shot or Iowa doesn't get two defensive touchdowns, I think those land.

Anyway, let's move onto...

The Bets

I'm going to use the Vegas Insider Consensus lines and totals, as I'm sure MGoBlog readers who also bet use a variety of different books. The matchups will be listed in order of closest spread to furthest spread. These lines and totals are as of the time this diary was posted.

Indiana at Nebraska (-5.5) [Total: 60]

Things are starting to look up for the Cornhuskers! They've had two great weeks of practice (thanks to the bye week). They fired defensive coordinator Erik Chinander (who'd been with Scott Frost since UCF, so you know he's trash, too) in order to snag that coveted clean slate. And their recruits are making mad dashes for the door, which is great because there's clearly a track record of success through the transfer portal (see: MSU last year; USC this year [ignore this year's Nebraska team, that's the exception that proves the rule]). Yup, things are really looking up, and it has nothing to do with the fact that it's really hard to look further down when you've already face planted. After firing Frost, Nebraska promoted WR/associate-head-coach and passing-game-coordinator Mickey Joseph to interim head coach. Even though he only joined the program in December, and his track record reveals a laborious slog up the coaching ladder––he led Langston, an NAIA school, to a respectable 13-7 record from 2011 to 2012, and then clawed his way to a position at LSU, where, as assistant coach (note: not offensive coordinator), the offense fell off a cliff after Joe Burrow left––there's certainly room to grow with this guy… again, cause, uh, they can’t shrink anymore. Right? And who cares that in his one game as Nebraska's head coach he let an Oklahoma team (that lost to Kansas State the very next week) beat him (at home) by 35 (more than the Sooners beat either UTEP or Kent State earlier this season)? Mickey’s getting his feet under him. Let’s see how high corn flies!

The Hoosiers, however, seem on the precipice of a predictable pitfall. They pulled wins out of their butts against Illinois and Western Kentucky (in both games, per ESPN, they had win expectancies of under 10% at some point late in the 4th quarter, and Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy for those games was 29% and 11%). They beat the oh so lowly Idaho Vandals (now FCS) by just 13. And just last week they lost by 21 to last year's CFP hopeful Cincinnati Bearcats. A look at that box score points to a closer game than the score indicates: the Hoosiers had 348 yards to the Bearcats' 394; they had 12 more first downs, too; the Bearcats scored a defensive TD on a fumble; and Indiana completely bottled up the Cincinnati run game. But a more studious look at that same box score reveals it took Indiana a whopping 104 plays to get those yards (so, 3.3 YPP) while it only took Cinci 70 plays (so, 5.6 YPP). Furthermore, Indiana seemingly can't cover anyone deep: in the last three games, they've allowed six TD passes of 26 or more yards, and two of those have gone for over 70 yards. All this is to say that it made sense why Indiana was the lowest rated undefeated team in SP+ heading into Week 4... but I really don't care about any of that. The Hoosiers apparently know how to win games this year (as a Red Wings fan, I’ve heard Mickey Redmond say numerous times, “They don't ask how, they ask how many,”)––and the Cornhuskers still don’t know how to win games..

Bottom Line: The Hoosiers have already beat two teams ranked higher than the Cornhuskers in SP+, and "Nebraska had a 90% chance to win in the 4th quarter and blew it" sounds about right.

Bet: Indiana (+175) or, if you're feeling less spicy, take the points at (+5.5)

Illinois at Wisconsin (-7) [Total: 43]

Illinois has played no one good: Wyoming, Indiana, Virginia, and Chattanooga are all lower than 80th in SP+. They didn't even beat all those teams: as mentioned above, the Hoosiers pulled one out of their butts (Illinois' postgame win expectancy at 71%). No, they haven't been tested, and no, their defense probably isn't one of the best in the country, and no, I don't think Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito is the god-send of competence that his four-game stat line makes him out to be (69% completions; 7.4 YPA; 9 TDs to 2 INTs). But I think there's value in a Big Ten West team that has hope. Have we not seen drastic swings from cellar dweller to contender in years past? In 2020 (COVID-noted), Northwestern somehow went 6-1 in conference play after going 1-8 the year before. In 2019, Minnesota went 7-2 after a 3-6 record in 2018. Nebraska was 6-3 in 2016 after they were 3-5 in 2015. Iowa went from 4-4 to 8-0 from 2014 to 2015. The volatility of the Big Ten West is real, and Illinois might just have the juice to be the splashy team this season. Do I have real stats to back that up? No. I just have the football feels, and a bunch of pictures of Bret Bielema to cheer me up when I’m feeling blue and orange.

Wisconsin has played someone good, though. In fact, they've played two good teams: Washington State and Ohio State. They've also lost both of those games. The Cougars only beat them by 3 points, and the Badgers out-gained them by nearly 150 yards, but they only averaged 0.3 more yards per play, and Connelly put their postgame win probability at just 34%. (Note: Their postgame win expectancy against OSU was straight up 0%.) Bucky's 5th Quarter, the SB Nation Wisconsin blog, has been in a state of emotional destitution, posting articles with titles like, "It's ok to admit Wisconsin's football program is backsliding" and "What needs to change for Wisconsin football? And how close are we to that change?" After watching the extended highlights from the Washington State game, it's pretty clear that Wisconsin is a program that's getting in its own way: lots of third down and longs; lots of penalties nuking chunk plays; lots of ugly turnovers at inopportune moments. And now they play Illinois, who's hungry to prove themselves, and may have the best defense they've seen this year. Excellent interior defensive linemen like Jer'Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph Jr. will make it hard for the Badgers to run into manageable third downs, and defensive backs Jartavius Martin and Devon Witherspoon should make those long third downs harder to convert.

Bottom Line: Wisconsin is descending into the malaise that is the middle dregs of the Big Ten West, while Illinois is out for badger blood in Year Two of Bret Bielema.

Bet: Illinois (+7) and/or Under 43, and, if you're feeling more spicy, take the Illini at (+250)

Michigan State at Maryland (-8) [Total: 60]

The most frustrating injury to prepare for when you're betting on football is a bruised QB, and, at the very least, bruise Taulia Tagovailoa Mike Morris did (sorry, if you have to read that sentence twice to parse it). Will Taulia play against the Spartans? If he plays, will he be limited? Will memories of a nearly 300 pound man thunder-blasting into his spine make him jumpy in the pocket? If all signs truly point to a Taulia that's 100% ready to go (even 80%), I have a hard time seeing Sparty keeping pace with the Terps. Tanner Morgan––who almost certainly will retire to Sarasota or Tucson when the season ends––just gashed the MSU secondary; on 26 attempts, he had 10.3 YPA and just three incompletions. "Wait a minute!" a Spartan might say, "Two of our starting DBs were out, and we’re forced to start two D-2 transfers now!" Okay, but the week before, (yes, that) Michael Penix Jr. threw for almost 400 yards at 9.9 YPP. And, from what I’ve heard, you're still starting two D-2 transfers this week. Thus, it seems MSU might have been lucky to play utterly catatonic MAC offenses (see: Western Michigan and Akron) when they did this year, otherwise we could've seen even more oodles of embarrassment.

Meanwhile, even if it is the better of the two units, MSU’s offense looks like they might only wake up in an attempt to belatedly pull off a back door cover. It took them until 9 minutes left in the Washington game for them to muster any sort of fight, and by that point the Huskies were up 39-14. A week later, after a 45 yard first half(!), the Spartans cobbled together a respectable 195 yards in the second… but 75 of those came on a last minute touchdown drive against the Gopher backups to make it 34-7. It's true, both the Huskies and the Gophers have good defenses (17th and 3rd respectively per SP+), but the Terps (56th) aren't as slouchy as the Broncos (104th) or the Zips (127th), and should at least make things somewhat difficult for a team that seemingly can't run (about two yards per carry in its last two games) and likes to offer gifts to its opponents (eight turnovers in four games).

Bottom Line: If you keep reading, you'll note that I later try to balance out the bad karma that inevitably comes from judging MSU as a couch-fire after just four games.

Bet: Maryland (-8) unless Taulia remains a "game-time decision"

Michigan (-10.5) at Iowa [Total: 42]

At this point in the season, it's axiomatic to bet the under in every Iowa game, no matter how low the total goes. Last week against Rutgers, I snagged Under 35.5, and if it weren't for two Iowa defensive TDs (including one in which Iowa safety Cooper DeJean did his best/luckiest impression of Willie Mays and proceeded to slither his way through every Rutger), it once again would've hit. Perhaps there's a case that the Iowa offense is figuring some stuff out, since they at least put together a few successful drives, but count me dubious considering: five of their eight drives lasted four plays or fewer and went for 10 yards or fewer (I'm excluding Iowa's final drive, which was just two plays that ran out the clock); their two field goal drives lasted a total of 21 plays and only went 129 yards (just over 4 yards per play); and their TD drive needed to be saved by a Rutgers DPI in the red zone. This offense is anemic––not a single player who’s played more than a third of their offensive snaps has a grade higher than 67.2. It might be because I hate myself, bu I’ve watched a lot of Iowa football this year, and the eye test backs this all up: Spencer Petras can’t hit the broad side of a barn, the offensive line can’t open a hole, the running backs aren’t magicians, and the receivers can’t get open.

What's more, Iowa's vaunted defense still has yet to prove that they can stop a semi-decent offense. Both Nevada and Rutgers rank below 100 on offense per SP+, and Iowa State is middling at best. Meanwhile, we know Michigan’s offense is more than semi-decent; they enter this game with a Top 10 offense per SP+. If JJ had put a little more touch on half of his half-dozen deep balls, the Wolverines easily could've put up 48 points against Maryland on 10 yards per play, and no one would be scornfully drumming his fingers about a "disappointing" performance. Ideally, Donovan Edwards returns this week, too, adding another weapon to the already deep arsenal. Is this going to be a rock fight? I mean, it's Iowa, so yeah, it's going to be a rock fight. But if each team gets 8-10 drives, I think it's reasonable to expect Michigan to score some points on half of theirs and Iowa to score on one of theirs. Or is that too generous?

Bottom Line: Even accounting for an Iowa defensive TD (plausible, but not likely), I'd expect a score something along the lines of 23-10.

Bet: Michigan (-10.5) and/or Under 42 and brace for ugliness

Purdue at Minnesota (-12) [Total: 52.5]

The buzzsaw (incisor-saw?) that is the Golden Gophers just keeps on rowing! After neutering Michigan State this week, Minnesota has outscored its opponents 183-24 through four games (and it would've been 183-17 if Sparty didn't get a petty, last-second TD to avoid a shut out). Admittedly, Minnesota's done this against a schedule that looks about as strong as my arthritis-riddled, wheelchair-bound, 89-year-old Polish grandmother (NMSU, Western Illinois, Colorado, and MSU), but an average score of 46-6 is nothing at which to sneeze. I still can't decide if I love or hate PJ Fleck's schtick (the obnoxious gum-chewing, the I-80 patrolman's self-serious sunglasses, the running-down-the-field after every damn quarter), but I can't deny that it seems to be working. His team plays smart (17 penalties in four games) and they play hard (stat not found, but eye-tested), so I'm buying in on the 10,000 Lakes team. In fact, I'm buying in so hard that I think they get to 11 wins this season.

But! Purdue! Charlie Jones, after toiling away as a Hawkeye last year, is on pace to win the Biletnikoff (41 receptions, 533 yards, and 7 touchdowns through 4 games [which would mean 123 catches, 1,599 yards and 21 touchdowns through a 12 game season]). And Cam Allen and Chris Jefferson––if you haven't heard of them, they're Purdue's starting safeties––grade out pretty darn well on PFF (80.6 and 72.4, respectively). Aidan O'Connell averaged 7.5 YPP and only threw one pick against the team's first three opponents (Penn State, Indiana State, and Syracuse, a combo at which no one should scoff), but it looks like he’s going to be out, or at least limited, this week. Furthermore, Purdue’s linebackers are really bad, which spells doom against a run-heavy team with a great blocking TE like Brevyn Spann-Ford. The Boilermakers won’t have enough to slow down or keep up with this surprising, subterranean powerhouse.

Bottom Line: Minnesota is 4-0 against the spread this year, and Purdue is 1-3; I'll take the rolling home team over the middling road team with an injury-questionable QB.

Bet: Minnesota (-12) unless PJ Fleck's sunglasses are working highway patrol that afternoon

Northwestern at Penn State (-26.5) [Total: 52]

At 10:39 PM GMT on August 27, 2022, I sent the following message to my Northwestern alum of a sister: "Go Wildcats! Best team in the country!!" While my tongue was obviously way deep in my cheek, there was a straw man's case to be made that this was a factual statement. Why? Because when that game in Dublin ended, Northwestern had what at the time seemed to be the best win of the young season. Alex Drain himself proclaimed Nebraska would win the Big Ten West, and Northwestern had just bested them in the first week of the season! When that game's final whistle blew, the only other team with a win on the season was Western Kentucky, who beat Austin Peay by 11. Of course, by now, we can look back on that Wildcats-Cornhuskers matchup and see it for what it is: [insert sad-Pat-Fitzgerald-Charlie-Brown-walk-down-sideline.gif here].

Since then, Penn State has... well, they've just continued to be Penn State under Frames Janklin: talented; not particularly well-coached; good enough to regularly beat the conference's weaker teams; and not good enough to regularly beat the conference's stronger teams. On offense, the $6 Million Man (Sean Clifford) is back, and he's flanked by not one but two talented freshman RBs: Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. After a slowish start, receiving TE Brenton Strange has accumulated 11 receptions for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last two weeks, and he and WR Parker Washington should feast against a back seven that looks so crappy at coverage I wouldn't trust them to apply sunscreen to my back on a rainy day. On defense, Linebacker U has some less than inspiring linebackers this year (they have five guys listed as LBs who've played 98+ snaps, and their best, Curtis Jacobs, barely cracks the 50th percentile, even against a pedestrian schedule), but they make up for it with an excellent pass rush (Chop Robinson is the #1 edge player according to PFF) and set of corners (Joey Porter Jr. and Kalen King could both contend for All Big Ten honors).

Bottom Line: Look for PSU to take a big lead early, put the clamps on Ryan Hilinski to avoid a comeback, and shelf their glass QB early to get a comfortable if boring win.

Bet: Under 52 and double down if a piano falls on Clifford

Rutgers at Ohio State (-40.5) [Total: 59.5]

It took some time (and by that, I mean, one week), but the Death Star appears fully operational: 52 points and 539 yards against SP+'s 6th best defense going into the week, all without your star WR? Good gravy... The Buckeyes' long-shot Heisman contender, RB TreVeyon Henderson, has only been really good this year, so they've given a lot of carries to Miyan Williams, who, it appears, might be even more effective than Henderson. Filling in as WR1, Emeka Egbuka has averaged over 100 YPG, and has caught a TD in every game. And then there's CJ Stroud, who remains overrated (I've been told this by my oldest friend, an OSU fan) but doing everything he needs to do to keep this machine running smoothly. If Iowa can score one offensive touchdown against Rutgers, then Ohio State should easily be able to score 10 touchdowns... right?

On the flip side of the ball, the Scarlet Knights offense looked competent in the second half of the game against the Hawkeyes (drives of 40, 82, 63, 33, and [sadly] -2 yards), but they haven't accumulated more than 325 yards in any of their three games that weren't against the Wagner Seahawks. The Buckeyes’ pass defense might be somewhat vulnerable (PFF doesn’t like either of their corners, but generally likes their safeties), but I doubt Rutgers is the team that takes advantage of that, and it’s not like any of the QBs they’ve faced so far have really set them on fire.

Bottom Line: The spread may look daunting, but I'd take it even if it were 10 points higher, and, if OSU doesn't cover, they're just a good team, not a great team... right?

Bet: Ohio State (-40) because you win either way

The Short Conclusion

Welp, that's it for this week. Happy Betting and Go Blue!