Best:  A Boring Saturday Afternoon

https://youtu.be/kwHWMxN8-qg

Rest assured I’ll give a (moderate) amount of oxygen to the (couple) of sports talk HAWT TAKES that have emerged from this game, but I really want to remind all UM fans how they felt this time last year.  This was the vibe on this very site heading into the season, which had a hint of optimism (read the “I’ve got 2006 feelings around this team rallying with the talent”) but mostly floated around 7-8 wins and the fear that Harbaugh’s odometer was reading “irrelevant” and Michigan was along for the ride.  While Harbaugh’s tenure at UM hadn’t come close to approaching that of other fallen golden sons like, say, Scott Frost, there was still a concern that he had settled into “pretty good”, the zone UM has largely occupied for the past 30+ years.  Not really a contender for the conference title or playoff bids, though still better than all but a dozen or so college football teams. 

But last year changed that narrative, as Michigan won it’s first outright conference title in a minute and played eventual national champion Georgia in the playoffs.  They did it with a dominant running game, a disruptive pass rush, and spectacular special teams, and exorcising recent demons along the way against Wisconsin, OSU, and Iowa.   Yes, there was drama in the offseason as Harbaugh flirted with the NFL but ultimately the year was a memorable chapter in Michigan’s history and, more than that, felt like a sustainable model going forward.  Michigan’s recruiting may never reach the level the likes of Alabama, OSU, and Georgia, but they showed they could compete against most teams with solid player development and innovative schemes.  Should we expect a conference title every year?  Not with OSU still lurking around, but it’s absolutely reasonable to believe again that The Game will more often than not be a de-facto conference title game, and Michigan should be counted on taking a couple of those contests over the years. 

And against that backdrop of a great season and a bright future, this weekend’s game against CSU was enjoyably boring.  Michigan came out and crushed an inferior opponent.  Yes, there will be questions about performances and playcalls but there’s no longer a sense that Michigan is rudderless, that every misstep is the canary in the Another One of Those Seasons coalmine.  If Michigan runs the ball an entire drive they’re doing so because they want to and can, not because they lack confidence in their offense or want to hide some deficiency.  If the defense gives up a late TD it isn’t because they cracked the defense that better offenses will blow holes in it.  The anxiety is gone, at least for a while, and it’s been replaced with a sense that the process will follow its due course and we should just enjoy the ride.  I’m sure that isn’t a sentiment shared by all fans but having written this column through the RR and Hoke years, it’s nice to watch a game as the defending champs and struggle to find meaning beyond “this is what a good team does to a bad one.”

Meh:  Not Much To Write About

Like I said – it was hard to take much from this game, a trend I expect will continue until at least Maryland comes calling.  We’ve all groused about the uselessness of this out-of-conference schedule, with UM playing 3 of the worst FBS teams in the country, and this game was against the “best” of that group.  Michigan has a penchant of playing with its food a bit in these games, relying on a very basic playbook and limited creativity to get in and out of these games with minimal injuries and game tape for opponents.  Now, unlike in years past Michigan didn’t try to Milton Berle the game and let an inferior opponent stick around, but they figured out early on that they could run over the Rams largely at will and set about doing so.  I expect similar gameplans against Hawaii and UConn, and so if anyone tells you they can divine much from how these 3 games go they’re either grasping at straws or are making some extremely broad observations. 

And with that, on to an extremely long-winded bit of analysis based on limited data…

Worst:  Incomplete

Coming into the game there was little question about who would win on the field; Michigan was a 30+ point favorite to bettors and that was probably being a bit generous given the fact the opponent was a mediocre G5 program from the West.  The bigger story was at QB, where the incumbent was being pressed behind by a 2nd-year Wonder Kid who the fans were clamoring to see take the reins since he stepped on campus.  The starter had an up-and-down first year at the helm the year before, completing 62% of his throws at 7.5 ypa and 14 TDs but struggled to take consistently advantage of the plethora of NFL-level downfield threats he had on the roster.  The backup had shown flashes of promise in his first year, flashing a strong arm and an effective running component that teased the potential for a truly dynamic offense that could battle with the best in the conference.  Coming out of fall camp the starter at QB felt fluid, with deference given to the previous starter but a sense that he’d be supplanted shortly.  And this game did little to dissuade this sense of inevitability, as the starter was serviceable but lacked the dynamism of the backup, who scored 2 TDs (one on the ground and another in the air) and generally looking like the player capable of pushing the offense to greater heights.  This was also against a backup of a dominant run game and defense, which limited the opponent to a single late score. 

I am, of course, talking about Michigan’s 1999 contest against Rice University, Michigan’s second game (after a home win against ND) of Tom Brady’s senior year.  Today a lot of fans (especially those too young to remember the era) maybe remember Brady struggling at times but always firmly holding onto the job because of how the year ended, with a big closing stretch of wins over  #6 PSU, OSU, and #5 Alabama.  But that absolutely wasn’t the case, as both QBs pretty consistently split time in the first half-dozen games of the year, with Henson shinning as a replacement for a struggling Brady in a win against Syracuse the following week and seeing significant time basically until the infamous “Clockgate” loss to MSU.  By that point the sense was that Henson wasn’t quite ready, that for Brady’s limitations he still gave the team lower-variance play especially against the better defenses on the schedule and his early-season “struggles” were replaced with solid play.  That 1999 team is secretly one of my greatest “What if?” seasons in UM history, a 10-2 squad that lost both games by a total of 9 points after blowing late leads and yet still went 7-2 in 1-score games and probably would have gotten pantsed by a loaded FSU team has they met for the title.

Now, I’m not claiming Cade McNamara is anywhere close to Tom Brady as we think of him now, and the differences in college football over the past 20+ years makes that point even clearer.  In 1999 college football was still dominated by the idea of steady QBs and running games; Rod Dayne won the Heisman that year after carrying the ball 337 (!) times for 2034 yards, and the Davey O’Brien award for the best college QB went to Joe Hamilton, Georgia Tech’s dual-threat QB who threw for 29 TDs and 11 picks and over 600 yards rushing.  For comparison Stetson Bennet won a title last with with Georgia putting up similar passing numbers and people were openly clamoring for him to be replaced.  Things were changing - Michael Vick starred at VT and led the Hokies to the BCS title game – but teams like Nebraska and Kansas State were still able to field top-10 teams with minimal aerial attacks.  Carr wasn’t quite Frank Solich or Bill Snyder but someone like Brady, with his solid arm talent and penchant for making the “smart play”, was a perfect field general for what those teams wanted to do.  Henson had the higher ceiling but had missteps, sometimes relying  a bit too much on his arm and athleticism to make the spectacular throw or keep a play alive when living to see another play was the better call. 

In today’s game the pendulum has shifted the other direction, where the best teams need their QBs to be elite playmakers who will their teams forward because, especially at the upper levels, everyone has a top-level defense and NFL-caliber position players on both sides of the ball.  That still doesn’t mean you have to be a Denard-level dual threat – Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud are considered two of the best QBs in college football and they combined for –20 yards (!!) on 110 carries last year – but you have to keep teams honest either with your feet or supreme arm talent, and preferably both.  That’s what is so tantalizing about JJ McCarthy and what is held against McNamara now – McCarthy has the ability to break Cade’s ceiling in the right offense, and if this team has designs on playing for another conference title and at least making the playoffs they’ll need a dynamic offense. 

But what qualifies as the “right” offense this year still remains a bit of a mystery, at least to me.  Josh Gattis had his issues as an OC (I challenge anyone to credibly argue why he won the Broyles Award last year) but you knew what he wanted the offense to look like – it’s “Speed in Space” like peak PSU with Tracy McSorley and Saquon Barkley and a plethora of deep threats, an offense designed to get the ball to playmakers in space and forcing the defense to contain it all.  It has read-option elements and definitely wants to make the QB a threat on the ground but isn’t the focus, more of a “keep them honest” wrinkle.  And Cade thrived last year, especially in the back half of the season, because he was accurate throwing the ball and could find guys like All, Anthony, Johnson, and Corum in space against mismatched defenders.  But Gattis is gone and replaced by the Weiss/Moore combo.  Neither of them have ever been the primary offensive coordinator for a college team, with Moore getting a bump to co-OC (though mostly focused on the offensive line) and Weiss having never served in any such capacity in his coaching career.  Weiss did come from the Ravens and helped develop Lamar Jackson and that run-heavy offense, but that’s a profoundly unique situation that neither McNamara nor McCarthy are well-suited to run, and that would also be antithetical to Harbaugh’s preferred offensive approach.

And that’s why I found this game so confounding in terms of figuring out what this offense is going to look like and how they’re evaluating the two QBs.  I know Harbaugh laid out some pretty broad abilities he’s looking for in his starting QB – things like “arm talent” and “playmaking” – but as far as I could tell Michigan didn’t once try to really stretch the field vertically with any of their QBs and instead mostly relied on short passes and a heavy dose of (pretty basic) running plays.  McNamara struggled early on with some of his throws but also had a nice throw to All and suffered from a couple of drops by his receivers, including a near-pick that happened when Erick All tripped coming out of his break.  And McCarthy didn’t even attempt a pass until the score was 37-0, at which point he mostly continued the dink-and-dunk approach.  McCarthy shined running the ball, picking up a TD and 50 yards on 3 attempts, but getting those yards against a bad MWC defense doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know about the two QBs.  If the focus of the offense this year will lean even heavier on running the ball then McCarthy is the hands-down best option, as he’s better suited to run the ball and forces defenses to commit a defender to him on the read-option.  Of course, by that same token they should be prepping Orji heavily as well given his size and running chops.  But that isn’t right, and people claiming McNamara didn’t throw the ball downfield because he was “scared” or “spooked” by, again, a bad MWC defense a season after he showed a willingness to air it out against far better defenses doesn’t hold much weight. 

It’s why I’m really interested in seeing with the UFR says for this offensive gameplan; they absolutely could have blown the Rams off the field with their receivers running pretty basic routes; it likely would have resembled every Deestroying video wherein a bunch of guys run 9-routes against corners sporting SoHoodies and compression shorts on a ripped-up HS field.  Yet, there was a concerted effort to make the game as vanilla as possible, doubly so when the offensive line suffered some injuries at tackle and Cade nearly got decapitated by a CSU rusher.  Now, if the coaching staff made the decision early on they’d let Cade throw a couple of times but otherwise just lean on their run game so be it; McNamara didn’t take full advantage of his limited opportunities and if the coaches grade him as such so be it.  But in my opinion, then, you aren’t really giving yourself an accurate appraisal of your team’s options at QB with live-game reps in that situation, and thus makes it hard to ascertain how either QB is going to perform when asked to do more.  I know the narrative coming out of this game (at least amongst fans) is that this job is McCarthy’s and Hawaii will be his coronation, but if so then I’d rather Harbaugh have just made the call to start the year and not wasted everyone’s time with this dog-and-pony show of an offensive gameplan against a severely overmatched opponent.

Worst:  Men Down

It’s hard to get too negative about a 44-point hamblasting that likely would have been worse had Michigan cared to make it so, but beyond the mehburger that was the QB rotation my other chief concern coming out of this game was how mediocre the offensive line looked in pass blocking.  Massive caveats given the fact they were down Ryan Hayes to start the game and then lost Barnhart midway through the first half to an ankle injury, prompting some shuffling across the front 5.  Still, CSU somewhat consistently got pressure on the QB throughout this game; they were credited with the one sack highlighted above but were somewhat consistently getting push into the pocket with only 4 linemen.  One of the strengths of last year’s team was how clean they kept the QB; they only gave up 14 all of last year and outside of Georgia generally limited the damage to minimal yardage lost in those circumstances.  Now, I’m not saying I expect this to be an ongoing problem – struggling a bit in the first game of the year with a number of guys out of the lineup doesn’t spell doom, only that I hope to see marked improvement against Hawaii and UConn in the next two games.  Because it was stupidly easy for UM to run the ball in this game, and as we saw during that second-quarter scoring drive where UM just ran the ball every time, they can likely out-muscle and out-mash all but a handful of teams on the schedule.  But the offense got bogged down in the redzone a bit and without a Hassan Haskins-type back capable of driving the pile forward 3-4 yards each time they’ll need to be able to hold up against the pass rush this year in order for their receivers to make plays and score. 

Again, not something to get overly worried about by any means but something I noticed early on in the game that surprised me.  Hopefully with Hayes back this weekend we’ll a more coherent and consistent pass blocking performance to go along with what I assume will be another balling on the ground.

Best:  Punches in Bunches

Coming into the year one of the biggest concerns was how UM was going to replace the pass-rushing production of Hutchinson and Ojabo.  Notice I didn’t say overall play – that’s a fool’s errand given the fact both were All Americans last year and Hutchinson was a Heisman finalist and the #2 pick in the NFL draft.  On the season they produced 25 of UM’s 34 sacks, and only Taylor Upshaw had more than 1 sack last season.  Compounding the uncertainty is the fact that Mike Macdonald left the DC role to join the Ravens after only one year, and so Michigan wound up turning to Jesse Minter, another former Ravens coach whose most recent college job was as DC for perennial SEC doormat/academically competent Vanderbilt.  Much has been made around these parts about the Raven’s Amoeba defense and the multiple looks it gives offenses, an approach designed to confuse QBs and generate pressure from unexpected spots.  Coming into the year Michigan hoped that guys like Mazi Smith and Mike Morris would be able to compress the middle of the pocket and that a revolving door of ends and cleverly-disguised linebackers would be able to close those gaps, resulting in similar production to last year’s line without the stand-out performers.  And yes, if this sounds like Moneyball it’s because I’m pointing at Pete.

Now, it remains unknown if this approach is going to work out against better teams; much like the passing offense it still felt pretty rudimentary out there, with Michigan’s superior talent devouring CSU’s most-Nevada-transplanted line and completely overwhelmed first-time QB.  Still, Michigan finished the day with 7 sacks for 50 yards on top of 11 TFLs, with 9 different players recording at least half a sack and 11 pitching in at least half a TFL.  It’s led to a pretty funny leaderboard for the team – as we all expected coming into the year UM’s leading sackers are two DBs, Michael Barrett, and a guy who stepped on campus a couple weeks ago – but it highlights how fluid and dynamic this defense can be with this scheme.  And some guys people were hoping to make some noise, like Jaylen Harrell and Braiden McGregor, shone with a lot of pressures, including McGregor’s interception-inducing slapping of Millen.  And again, caveats about opponent and gameplan but watching Anoma translate speed to power on his sack was incredibly encouraging for this team and his future production even if it’s unlikely to continue against the better teams on the schedule.

Best:  Keeping His Leg Warm

Jake Moody’s quest to repeat as the Garza Award winner this season started off strong as he connected on all 3 of his FG attempts in this game.  Now, kicking 3 FGs in the red zone could be viewed as a bit of a disappointment by some but I instead want to treat it as a sign that Harbaugh is looking out for his specialists and wants to give them a chance to pad the stats against the cupcakes before the conference season.  And the fact that anything within 45 yards basically feels automatic at this point is quite refreshing after some of the adventures UM has had at kicker in recent memory.

Best:  Ronnie Bell’s Return

1 year after tearing his ACL in the opener against WMU, Ronnie Bell was back doing what he does best – blocking the hell out of a corner on Roman Wilson’s TD catch and making a nice first-down catch.  He was only targeted twice and he rather inexplicably dropped the second ball but it was still great to see him back on the field with no discernible limitations.  He remains my pick to be the top receiver on the squad this year, and I think we’ll see him stretch the field more in the slot if/when Michigan takes that part of the offense out of the barn.

Best:  Future Opponents Underwhelm

Honestly, the next couple weeks are going to be way more informative about the strengths of weaknesses of future UM opponents than anything about Michigan.  On that front, Iowa’s totally normal 7-3 win over South Dakota State largely reinforces my expectations for the Hawkeyes.  SDSU is a very good FCS team – they came into the year ranked #2 – but Iowa barely breaking 150 yards of total offense is yet another example of the danger in nepotism hiring.  People get on Jay Harbaugh but he’s a really good coach; Brian Ferentz has been the OC at Iowa for a handful of years now and each season they’ve looked progressively less coherent and competent moving the ball.  Iowa’s defense remains terrifying but I’m confident that Michigan can move the ball against them and, realistically, 10 points might be enough to win that game.  Similarly, both PSU and MSU look about how I expected, with the same limitations they’ve had for the past couple of years on the offensive lines.  Last year MSU overcame those issues because they picked up an All-American off the Wake Forest bench; that doesn’t look to be the case this year with guys like Berger and so I think it’ll be more of a slog.  Their defensive line again looks solid but their secondary struggled at times against a WMU team that came into the year ranked the same as CSU, as this was a 1-score game until midway through the 4th quarter.  PSU gamely came back at Purdue but despite throwing for 4 TDs Sean Clifford looked overwhelmed behind, again, a faulty PSU offensive line and their running game never got going (they averaged 3.1 ypc on 32 carries).  Auburn is going to be a much different beast for the Nittany Lions and while I think there defense will show up it could get ugly if Clifford can’t stay upright. 

Much was made of Nebraska losing to Northwestern after blowing two double-digit leads, but then they came back and struggled to beat the one Dakota team that isn’t very good.  This was 7-7 at halftime and a 1-score game until midway through the 4th quarter.  Much like MSU Nebraska made the score a bit prettier late in the game but Casey Thompson again looked pretty flighty though Anthony Grant does look like a solid back for them.  The defense looks immensely movable especially on the ground, and whatever pass rush they hoped would materialize hasn’t as they’ve picked up 2 sacks in 2 games.  Scott Frost’s buyout drops precipitously come October, so there’s a non-zero chance UM will be seeing a Huskers team with an interim coach come November. 

And finally, in this week’s “I’m rooting for the meteor” game of the week, OSU struggled to beat a pretty mediocre Notre Dame team in Columbus.  Ohio State absolutely can still be a terrifying offense but it may take a minute, especially if they don’t quite have the playmakers at receiver after JSN that they enjoyed last season.  Rewatching that game last year I was struck by how many of OSU’s drives against Michigan were sustained because Wilson or Olave made a spectacular play on the ball, and you could tell they lacked that explosiveness in this game.  Notre Dame’s offense wasn’t much to write home about and you do have to wonder if Freeman is going to rely a ton on his defense this year to keep games close and try to win ugly.  They’ll likely get off the mat against Marshall and Cal in the coming weeks but going to UNC is going to be a test for their ability to keep up with a team that has a ton of offensive talent.  Oh yeah, and while Indiana may have beaten Illinois the Illini still looked much better than the Hoosiers, which doesn’t portend particularly well for either team when they play Michigan.

Again, this is one week of games but it was a bit refreshing to see future opponents largely underwhelm in their games while Michigan waxed an inferior opponent with limited effort.

Next Week:    Hawaii

The line for this game is apparently 50+ to some sports books, and that may still be leaving some meat on the bone.  I think Timmy Chang can get Hawaii back to being a competent FBS program but right now they’re likely the worst team in the country not named New Mexico St., and Michigan is absolutely going to run them over for 4 quarters.  Given that and the fact UConn is up next I might try to write a single column about these two games the following week, especially since an 8 PM kickoff really cuts into the time I’m willing to dedicate to a recap of a bloodbath.  But we’ll see – maybe JJ and Cade will just throw TDs to each other all game and the defense will just play only cornerbacks in the second half.