2021 Week 5 Total Conference Wins Outlook

"It is considered that you must be better educated, in accordance with your altered position, and that you will be alive to the importance and necessity of at once entering on that advantage."
    - Mr. Jaggers
    (Great Expectations by Charles Dickens)

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So here Team 142 stands, with an undefeated 5-0 record, at a point on the schedule where expectations going into the season may have had the difficulty of the opponents between this week and last week swapped? Having cleared last week’s challenges in Madtown with flying colors, the goal posts appeared to have moved once again, and now the real test will not be against the stout run defense that was the Cheese Eaters of Camp Randall, but the Husker Death Harvester that is Scott Frost’s Spread-to-Run, Power Read Option schemes. Frost has a reputation for having a modern football mindset, and this is why his schemes were so effective as a great equalizer of talent during his tenure at UCF. If you haven’t noticed, “equalization of talent” is exactly what the Huskers have needed since ... Scott Frost was playing. So, UNL is no OSU talent-wise, mind you, but if you squint your eyes and channel one of your deepest, darkest nightmares, Adrian Martinez becomes reminiscent of J.T. Barrett snaking through a spaghetti bowl of misdirection. So having that in mind, the preparation for this game will be critical for Team 142 not just for the purposes of the game itself, but also The Game.

UNL Memorial Stadium flyover of the Omaha-class Husker Death Harvester “Grim Reaper”

So here Team 142 stands, on a precipice from which it could either spread its wings and launch into a momentous flight toward greatness, or with broken wings, begin a downward spiral into the abyss that is BPONE for some, or to others, the revelation of one’s character. We shall see.

Of course, no one ever plays anyone else until…they do. And so that’s why there are computery, fancy stats sorts of things to try to conduct both a statistically sound and logically robust analysis of the vast dataset that is play-by-play statistics beyond just the relatively sparse dataset consisting of sum-total box scores and game results. Such is the nature of Bill Connelly’s S&P+, which develops tempo- and opponent-adjusted measures of college football efficiency based on play-by-play and drive data designed to be predictive and forward-facing), as well as ESPN’s own FPI (like S&P+, but “different”). These two rating systems form the baseline for this report.  However, just for kicks and for the sake of comparison, the older-school Pure Points model provided by Jeff Sagarin is included in this report.

Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities

So, with that, it’s on to a multiple ratings analysis. The focus is on the all-important in-conference slate so as to better illuminate the prospects for each of the teams to make it to the B1GCG in Indy, and beyond. But before delving into the details of applying the ratings to the schedules, let’s first have a look at the ratings themselves across the conference. All three ratings are points-based, but only S&P+ and FPI are relative to an average FBS team. The FPI and S&P+ are both adjusted to reflect a 2.5 point home-field advantage. The current adjustment for the Sagarin ratings is a 2.77 point home advantage.

The Buckeyes continue at their apparently immutable position as the top rated B1G team in the S&P+ and FPI ratings. The Sagarin ratings have once again settled on a new top-rated team, the Iowa Hawkeyes. By contrast, Iowa is in the 4th and 5th position per FPI and S&P+, respectively. That said, no team is consistently rated across the board, but the teams with the least variation are Michigan (2nd & 3rd-rated), Northwestern and Illinois (both last or 2nd-to-last). The biggest enigma in the B1G is Maryland, with a variation of 6 spots ranging from 6th-rated in the S&P+ to 12th-rated as per FPI. Meanwhile, Nebraska is getting some love, placing in the upper half of the conference across the board. Indeed, the Huskers are rated above the two B1G teams to which they have lost, MSU and Illinois, in all ratings except for FPI, in which they are one spot behind Sparty. In similar fashion, the Badgers are still managing to hang on to its status as an upper-echelon B1G team, and are rated as high as 4th-best in the B1G according to S&P+. The Cheese Eaters are rated just behind 3rd best Michigan, and one ahead of 5th-best and undefeated Iowa. Clearly, this a reflection of the Badgers still being regarded as a team of quality in the fancy stats domain, which may be a harbinger of things to come.

B1G East Schedule Rundown

The tables below are composites of the conference schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East with the latest ratings following the games week 4. The last table in each set simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their  expected in-conference win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers. Those are found in a later section.

S&P+ Results

It’s the same old story - the top three teams in the expected wins standings are the usual suspects: OSU with 7.5 expected wins, followed by PSU and UM at 0.8 and 1.1 wins back, respectively. OSU is favored in all of its remaining games, so yea. PSU is favored in all of its games except when they visit the Horseshoe, where the Nits will be a 7.2 point underdog (32.2% win likelihood or about 1:2 odds). And so it goes, UM is the underdog in two of its games, on the road at Happy Valley as well as when the Buckeyes visit the Big House.

The outlook offered by S&P+ for MSU nudges Sparty ahead of the Terps with an expected win total of 5.4 games (up from 5.0 wins). Even so, Sparty can be considered out of B1GE divisional contention, but still well within the bowl-eligibility bubble along with Maryland and Rutgers. Rutgers at this point will need to win a game as an underdog, but doing so is not outside the realm of possibility. As expected last week, the steady downward spiral of the Hoosiers toward the bottom of the expected wins standings continues. The prospects for the Hoosiers to get off the mat are not looking good.

FPI Results

FPI follows suit with the S&P+ ratings, placing OSU at the top with 7.4 expected wins, with the Buckeyes favored in all their remaining games. The Wolverines are a close second, 0.5 wins off the lead. PSU is another 0.7 wins behind UM. Sparty is threatening to contend for an invite to Indy at 5.8 expected wins - so winning the games they’re supposed to plus a couple of upsets ... and they might be the one.

Rutgers has moved into the 5-spot, overtaking Maryland despite suffering a slightly worse obliteration last weekend. Both have better than 3 expected wins, which when combined with their 3 OOC wins each, keeping them within the Bowl-eligibility Bubble. The Terps are only favored in one of their remaining games, however. so making a bowl game will require a couple of upsets. The Hoosiers are actually favored in two of their remaining games, however, with a 2-1 OOC record, they’re in a marginally worse position than the Terps.

Sagarin Results

The Sagarin ratings currently project three main contenders led by OSU with 7.0 expected wins, followed by UM 0.1 wins back, and PSU at about 6.2 expected wins. MSU is marginally in contention, 2.2 wins behind OSU at 4.8 expected wins. Unlike S&P+ and FPI, Sagarin projects that no team will win all of its remaining games, which promises to make things interesting! Sagarin has OSU as the underdog in only one of its games - the one at the end of its schedule - by a tight 2.5 point margin. The Nits are the underdog in two of their remaining games according to Sagarin, by 5.9 points when they visit Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, and by 5.7 points when they visit the Horseshoe. UM is the underdog in only one game, when they visit Happy Valley on November 13 - by the slimmest of all margins: 0.1 points.

Little has changed for Sparty’s outlook in the past week. Despite an uptick to 4.8 expected wins, which gives Green a bias toward a winning record, Sparty remains the underdog in all but one of its remaining games. Four of those underdog margins are by less than one score, so Sparty may be the CHAOSTEAM of 2021.

Sagarin is in agreement with S&P+ and FPI insofar as the Hoosiers are the projected bottom dwellers. And like FPI, Sagarin contrast puts Rutgers in the 5 spot and Maryland in 6th in terms of expected wins, with both positioned within the Bowl-eligibility Bubble.

B1G West Schedule Rundown

The next set of schedule tables shows the conference schedules for all seven teams in the B1G West based week 4 results and ratings for the remaining games from S&P+, FPI and Jeff Sagarin’s Pure Points ratings. Again, the last table in each figure simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their  expected win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional conference standings per se. Those projections can be found in the next section.

S&P+ Results

In the B1GW, S&P+ is standing pat with Iowa and Wisconsin being the principal contenders in the race to Indy. However, by the strictures of this diary, Minnesota is within 1.8 expected wins of the top after vanquishing Purdue last week, and so the Gophers now assume the position of dark horse contender. After taking it on the nose from Michigan last week, Wisconsin has fallen to 5.2 expected wins, 1.3 behind Iowa. Nonetheless, Wisconsin has passed through its gauntlet scathed but still alive. Remarkably, the Badgers are favored in all of their remaining games, including by a -4.7 point margin (3:2 odds) when the Hawkeyes come to visit Camp Randall on October 30. Thus, the Badgers remain in the catbird seat despite having a losing record in conference at this point. As noted last week but bears repeating: S&P+ is so enamored with the Badgers, they could drop the Michigan game and still have a favorable path to the B1GW Invitation to Indy. This is because Iowa, despite vanquishing a favored Maryland squad last week, remains the underdog in 2 other games (Penn State by 3.7 points and now at Nebraska by 0.6 points to close the season).

As for the rest of the B1GW, Minnesota, Nebraska and Purdue remain in the Bowl-eligibility Bubble, but Minnesota has an edge by already having defeated Purdue, while the Huskers are behind the 8-ball with its loss to Bottom Feeder Illinois to open the season. Purdue will need to win at least one game in which it is currently an underdog. It goes without saying that none can afford to drop a game in which they are favored. Meanwhile, Illinois and Northwestern are firmly implanted to the bottom, with Northwestern being the bottom-most.

FPI Results

In stark contrast to S&P+, FPI moves Iowa further ahead in the lead at 7.1 expected wins, 2.7 wins ahead of next-best Minnesota. S&P+ also has the Hawkeyes favored in all of their remaining games, putting them on a path to an undefeated regular season and assuring that the Hawkeyes will make the trip to Indy December. Most of the teams in the B1GW are relegated to the Bowl-eligibility Bubble, led by the Gophers with 4.4 expected wins. Nebraska, Wisconsin and Purdue are all within 0.7 expected wins of the Gophers.

Meanwhile, FPI agrees with S&P+ insofar as Northwestern is the worst of the worst this year. Expected to lose all of their remaining games, Pat Fitzgerald and the Mildcats appear to be channeling Rick Venturi and their NCAA record 34 game losing streak from the late 70’s/early 80’s.

Sagarin Results

The Sagarin ratings also show Iowa as the clear leader in the B1GW at 7.5 expected wins, now more than 3.3 expected wins ahead of next-best Minnesota. At 3.4 wins behind Iowa, Wisconsin seems relegated to the Bowl Bubble along with Minny, UNL and Purdue. Like the FPI, Sagarin still projects Iowa to win all of its remaining games. The Hawkeyes’ narrowest margin is now at -4.9 points; not with the Badgers, but in the season-ender against the Huskers. Strangely, the Badgers are favored in all of its remaining games other than Iowa, but mostly by one-score margins. Conversely, the Gophers, Huskers and Boilers will all need to win at least one game in which they’re not favored to retain bowl eligibility.

Expected Conference Wins Distributions

Before getting into the projected final standings, it’s worth having a look at the distributions of expected wins across the conference. If nothing else, it serves as a reminder that point spreads  are subject to very wide statistical variations (two standard deviations is +/- 34 points), wide enough to account for just about anything happening!

The plots below show the expected total conference wins distributions for the teams in each division. The legends list the teams in order of decreasing expected win totals. The expected win total is determined by the value at which half of the area under the curve is to the left, and the other half is to the right! The number of wins with the highest probability (i.e. the most likely outcome) for a given team is referred to as the “mode”.

S&P+ Results

The S&P+ distributions show clear separation among the three contenders in the B1GE. UM, PSU and OSU still occupy the same 6, 7 and 8 win modes, respectively. However, both OSU and UM distributions are biased toward a 7-win mode in the middle, while PSU is biased toward 6 wins. OSU has the best chance of going undefeated in the B1G at  17.4%, while PSU and UM are at 4.1% and 2.6%, respectively. MSU also has a chance, but it is vanishingly small.

On the other side, the competition in the B1GW - though limited to only Wisconsin and Iowa, is showing more significant separation. Iowa is in sole possession of a 7-win mode, though biased strongly toward 6 wins. The Badgers share their 5-win mode with the Gophers, with the former biased toward 6 wins; and the latter, 4 wins. Iowa is the only team with a chance of going undefeated in the B1G, with a 3.1% chance.

Also clearly delineated are the distributions of the Bowl Bubble teams. In the B1GE, the distributions of MSU and Maryland have separated following the destruction of Terps last Saturday, with Sparty the lone team with a 5-win mode, with Maryland at a 4-win mode. Both are biased toward a higher mode. Likewise, Rutgers is clinging to bowl eligibility with its 3-win mode, although biased toward 2 wins, which does not bode well. Alone as the solitary B1GE Bottom Feeder: poor damn Indiana.

The B1GW Bubble teams are more closely grouped. The Gophers hold the 5-win mode, but are biased toward 4 wins. The next-best Huskers hold a 4-win mode biased toward 3 wins, while the Boilers hold a 3-win mode biased toward 4 wins. As for the Bottom Feeders, the Cats and Illini are hunkered down in modes of 2 wins apiece, but with the Mildcats strongly biased toward only a single B1G win for the season.

FPI Results

The FPI distributions for the B1GE once again show four contenders in a loose grouping aligned on the 6-win, 7-win and 8-win modes. MSU shares the 6-win mode with PSU, wherein MUS is biased toward 5 wins, and PSU toward 7 wins. Michigan stands alone with a balanced, 7-win mode, while OSU straddles from the 8-win mode down toward 7 wins. OSU has the best chance of going undefeated in the B1G at 13.8% (up from 7.1% last week), followed by UM at 6.4% (up from 3.7%) and PSU at 1.7% (up from 1.0%). MSU’s chances remain vanishingly small. On the other side, Iowa stands alone as the clear and uncontested favorite to make the trip to Indy. The Hawkeyes are sitting pretty with a mode of 7 wins with a slight bias toward 8 wins. Iowa is the lone team in the B1GW with a shot at going undefeated in the B1G, with a 9.3% likelihood.

Regarding the Bowl Bubble teams in the B1GE, the Maryland-Rutgers matchup may be the one that bursts the bubble for the loser, as the distributions for both teams have receded to the 3-win mode. Both have about a 67% chance of becoming bowl eligible. Along with them sharing the 3-win mode is Indiana, but the Hoosiers are biased strongly toward 2 B1G wins. With an OOC loss, Indiana’s chances of becoming bowl-eligible stand at about 24%. So, it remains to be seen, but it may still be possible that all teams in the B1GE become bowl eligible. Meanwhile, the B1GW Bubble is getting crowded. Minny, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Purdue are all clustered on the 4-win mode, with Minny showing a strong bias toward 5 wins.  Meanwhile, the Mildcats and Illini remain entrenched Bottom Feeders.

Sagarin Results

In the B1GE, Sagarin has the same three contenders - UM, OSU and PSU - grouped between the 6-win and 7-win modes. OSU and UM show nearly identical distributions with balanced 7-win modes. The chances of OSU and UM going undefeated in B1G play are 7.7% and 7.2%, respectively. PSU, meanwhile, has a strong bias toward 7 wins after thumping Indiana. As of now, PSU’s likelihood of going undefeated in B1G play is 2.0%. If they can defeat Iowa, the PSU distribution will certainly shift to the right and their chance of going undefeated will significantly improve, which will make things even more interesting!

On the other side, Iowa is the clear favorite, standing alone with a solid 7 win mode. Relegated to the Bowl Bubble are the remaining B1GW teams not located in Illinois: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Purdue, all of whom have 4-win modes. The former three have balanced distributions, so when combined with 2-1 OOC records, they all have about a 65% chance at a CFB postseason experience. With its bias toward 3 wins, Purdue’s chance at a bowl game is a bit less at 54%.

Meanwhile, the Illini are clinging to 3-win mode that is strongly biased toward 2 wins, but with 2 OOC losses, their hopes for bowl eligibility remain fleeting. Likewise, the Mildcats downward-biased 2-win mode is not a great complement to their two OOC wins, leaving them with about a 7.5% chance at bowl-eligibility.

B1G Expected Final Standings

As alluded to above, following are projections of the divisional conference standings at the end of the season based on the combination of current records and the projected wins and losses for the remainder of the season.

S&P+ Forecast

FPI Forecast

Sagarin Forecast

Based on simple point-margin enforced wins and losses, the S&P+ and FPI ratings forecast OSU to win the B1GE with a 9-0 conference record, while Sagarin holds that Michigan wins the B1GE, also with an 8-1 record by virtue of a head-to-head tie-breaker with the Buckeyes. When considering the FPI and Sagarin ratings, the winner of The Game will head to Indy the following Saturday. However, when considering the S&P+ ratings, the impact of The Game will have a more nuanced impact in determining the B1GE representative in the B1GCG. In essence, UM could spoil OSU’s chance at a B1GCG appearance. It goes like this: it’s likely that the Buckeyes will have a 1-game lead over UM when they come to Ann Arbor, with UM having lost to PSU. Also, PSU will likely have lost to OSU. Should UM pull an upset of the Buckeyes, a 3-way tie for first place would occur. In this case, the tie-breaker rule that would be invoked is the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents, which would result in PSU advancing to Indy due to the combined records of Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois at 14-13. UM’s and OSU’s non-divisional opponents would likely have combined losing records.

As for the B1GW, the S&P+ ratings still project a 7-2 (9-3) Wisconsin team to earn a trip to Indy, beating out a 6-3 (9-3) Iowa team. In contrast, FPI and Sagarin see a 9-0 (12-0) Iowa running away with it over a next-best 5-4 (7-5) or 6-3 (8-4) Wisconsin squad.

The biggest differentiators among all of the ratings appears to be the assessments of the Iowa Hawkeyes, Wisconsin Badgers and Penn State Nittany Lions by S&P+. Because S&P+ has both Penn State and Wisconsin rated comparatively high, it provides for both teams to have wins over Iowa, and PSU a win over Michigan as well. This is sufficient to propel the Badgers to Indy, and drop UM to 3rd place in the B1GE.

Yours in football, and Go Blue!