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Unverified Voracity Demands Targets Comment Count

Brian January 7th, 2020 at 1:46 PM

Nico's back. Michigan goes 1/3 on junior WRs:

Now for the love of all that is big and leapy shove targets down this man's throat until he bursts.

This does not include Collins drawing pass interference penalties at a higher rate than anyone else nationally. Hooray for Michigan turning their offense around midseason, now give Nico Collins 100 targets or we riot.

[After THE JUMP: I will never get over Lorenzo Romar]

Coaching movement. Chris Partridge is gone and Anthony Campanile was supposed to be next at BC; then BC hired someone else as their defensive coordinator. That leaves Rutgers as the other suitor, and that may be happening imminently:

Rutgers is believed to be close to a deal with Michigan linebackers coach Anthony Campanile to take over as its new defensive coordinator, according to several individuals with knowledge of the situation.  …

Michigan is Rutgers’ only competitor for Campanile at this juncture after Boston College - which was considered the favorite to hire him as recently as this past weekend - moved on Monday and hired former Rutgers assistant Tem Lukabu as its new defensive coordinator. Campanile previously coached at BC from 2016-18 before spending last season with Michigan. Campanile has a clause in his Michigan contract that allows him to leave for a job at Rutgers with no buyout penalty, and Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh is committed to trying to retain Campanile, according to the individuals.

That article further asserts that the deal on the table for Campanile is for more than their recently-hired OC, who's getting 800k. That would be hard for even Michigan to match.

So Michigan is probably going to be in the market for a couple of defensive position coaches, one of whom is likely to have East Coast connections. Sam Webb's been posting about candidates. These naturally include former grad assistant Aubrey Pleasant, who's come up in every defensive position coach search since time began, but the name that jumps out is Kentucky DBs coach Steve Clinkscale. Clinkscale had an excellent group this year even after losing a couple of second-day NFL draftees and also recruits the state of Michigan—particuarly Oak Park—heavily.

Pretty much. Michigan's OL checks in 16th amongst the 130 OLs across the nation, per PFF's reckoning:

16. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

Highest-graded player: OG Michael Onwenu – 76.5 (18th)

The interior of the Michigan offensive line dominated the action this season as their collective play from their guards was the highest-graded unit in football. Onwenu and Ben Bredeson allowed just 18 total pressures in the passing game on a whopping 991 pass-blocking snaps.

Should be noted here that I don't believe PFF does any opponent adjustments—I don't even know how you'd do that in play by play grading—so some group of 5 teams may be overrated because they didn't go up against, you know, Chase Young. Michigan's placement feels about right since they had excellent pass protection but never really developed into the road graders you were probably hoping for midseason.

Onwenu had a bit of a fall by PFF's reckoning—mine too—from a midseason AA to a very good but not elite performer.

Meanwhile, MSU was slightly outside the top 20:

114. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

Highest-graded player: OG Luke Campbell – 60.9 (202nd)

When you see that Michigan State's highest-graded offensive lineman is in the 200s in terms of rankings, you can understand just how bad it was for the team. As a unit, the Spartans didn't crack the top 100 in run-blocking, pass-blocking or overall grades this season, and their highest-graded unit overall came by way of their center play — checking in at 83rd overall.

That OL plus a new QB and zero staff changes == more of the same.

In other PFF items, Brad Hawkins graded out as their #4 Big Ten safety. That's something that has to be taken into context since Hawkins was the guy who got to come up and thump a lot of crossing routes. I still think Metellus was the better of the pair by a significant margin.

Ye gods. Eamonn Brennan's first bubble watch of the season is out on the Athletic. It includes nine of ten Big East teams and 12 of 14 Big Ten teams. I mean:

Should be in: Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa
Work to do: Wisconsin, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue

Have you girded thyself? I suggest girding immediately. Gird.

Also points to Brennan for reminding us of Indiana's incredibly bizarre 2018-19:

Indiana (11-3, 1-2; NET: 46, SOS: 45): Ah, Indiana. We meet again. The 2018-19 Hoosiers were perhaps the most frustrating, baffling, bizarre bubble team we can remember, one that started 12-2 with quality nonconference wins, then losses in 12 of its next 13 games — with the lone win in that stretch coming at Michigan State, because reasons — followed by four wins to end the regular season (including a sweep of Michigan State, because LOL), followed by a first-round loss in the Big Ten tournament. All in all, the Hoosiers entered Selection Sunday 17-15.

Michigan's bit of this was the game at Assembly Hall where they jumped out to a 17-2 lead amongst the angriest arena I've ever seen.

Matching this now more feasible. John Beilein recruited one five star in his tenure and Michigan ended up with as many NBA players as anyone except the two premiere one and done factories:

Nobody's going to match that so Michigan's gotta get some dudes in. So far so good.

Related fun exercise: which teams on this list got the least out of all this talent? Texas hasn't been past the second round since 2008. UCLA did have three Sweet 16s under Steve Alford and even had a couple of protected seeds, a 4 and a 3. Indiana also had three Sweet 16s under Tom Crean plus two Big Ten titles.

Your winner: Washington. Lorenzo Romar's magnificent tenure saw him fail to make the tourney six straight times to finish out his tenure. Mike Hopkins has had three years since in which he got a nine-seed once. And even during the relatively good years of Romar's tenure he managed to turn a one seed into getting bounced from the tourney in the Sweet 16. Romar managed to turn a team with Markelle Fultz and Matisse Thybulle into a 9-22 record!

RIP GLI? There is just one more year on the GLI contract and then it sounds like the thing may go the way of the dodo:

I would like to pitch my quasi-state championship idea again:

  • Take the 7 in-state teams and add a guest either annually or on a permanent basis.
  • Two groups of four with MSU and M in opposite groups, each team plays 6 games. If conference-mates are in the same group move up a conference series.
  • Top half of groups compete for state title, bottom half go to consolation bracket.

This is tougher now that the Big Ten has 24 league games since this would occupy 8 of the remaining 10 slots. But I like playing for more stuff and that would be more meaningful than the GLI.

I don't think moving the GLI to Grand Rapids is going to do anything for it except confirm that it's no longer what it was.

Etc.: Rumors that Chuck Filiaga will transfer are debunked. Drew Henson is plugging Cato June for the open coaching spot.

Comments

DonAZ

January 7th, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^

Onwenu had a bit of a fall by PFF's reckoning—mine too—from a midseason AA to a very good but not elite performer.

Any idea why?  Did he have a nagging injury?  Did they make a mid-season modification to blocking schemes?  There's the possibility he (Onwenu) took his foot off the gas a bit at mid-season, I guess ... but I'd like to think that's not the reason.

SanDiegoWolverine

January 7th, 2020 at 3:09 PM ^

The thing about UMbig11 was that the first year or so he was on this board he would post about how he work in the admin side of the athletic department and didn't have any real insight on players, recruiting, transfers, whatever. Then, all of a sudden he was this insider. Maybe he changed jobs or made friends with someone in the know but he couldn't have been up front when he was first on the board that he wasn't an insider. 

Gulogulo37

January 7th, 2020 at 6:53 PM ^

Eh. He was probably close to transferring and didn't. I remember there were all those rumors Gentry was going to transfer, not from umbig11 IIRC, but he didn't. Then when he did leave it came out that he basically had had one foot out the door and changed his mind.

Either way I'm glad he stayed! If he's not a starter, he's probably one of the first backups in. 

Communist Football

January 7th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^

Rutgers might offer Campanile more money in gross salary, but New Jersey's income and property taxes are among the worst in the nation. (Campanile's marginal effective tax rate would be 8.97% in NJ but 4.25% in MI.)  Hence, on an after-tax basis, Michigan has an extra $50-100k to match Rutgers' offer (depending on what kind of house Campanile buys).

JFW

January 7th, 2020 at 4:54 PM ^

Well, I'm a winter lover; so if I got good value I might. Plus they have good paddling. 

That said, I'm a huge fan of Hawaii. I've only been to LA and San Francisco in California, and while they were nice (Malibu is very pretty) I'd not want to deal with everything else. I'm not a huge fan of Florida either. But man, Hawaii....

schreibee

January 8th, 2020 at 1:50 PM ^

I cannot speak for how Hawaii or other "high tax" states asses income levels for taxation purposes, but we live in SF and earn a decent wage (mind you while we'd be well off in some states, we're working poor here). We get a refund from CA every year, and that's on low six figures.

That high CA state tax is for Mark Zuckerberg and LeBron James, I think?

curl06

January 7th, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^

As a state and local tax nerd, his effective tax rate in New Jersey for income would actually be 7.08%. He would only pay 8.97% on his income that exceeds $500,000. 

So on $800,000, he'd pay about $22,000 more tax in New Jersey than Michigan. The property tax rate though would be a different story.

Teddy Bonkers

January 7th, 2020 at 8:34 PM ^

That graphic shows a rosey picture of life in Illinois, with respect to taxes. It's pretty misleading from my experience. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_income_tax

Wiki page has an effective tax summary that might be more appropriate. For example illinois income tax is not bad, but probably taxes are lousy and sales tax around Chicago is over 10%.

jethro34

January 7th, 2020 at 2:30 PM ^

So because I'm a massive geek who still isn't over the fact that there are no more NCAA video games and the last one (Denard cover) is not reverse compatible with the XBox One, I started a franchise mode in an older version of Madden and at the end of the first season with the Rams (closest uniform, select the 70's version before every game) I edited every player on the roster to have similar look, number (sometimes difficult because you can't have an offensive and defensive player with the same number) and attributes as my favorite Wolverines from the decade that just finished. Needless to say, I throw to Nico a LOT! But it's pretty sweet to have Peppers, Dax, Jourdan, Gary, Winovich, McGrone, Lavert, Bush, Mike Martin, Mo and JMFR all on the field at once. Very satisfying. I just Rutgered the Giants.

My name ... is Tim

January 7th, 2020 at 2:39 PM ^

I think you may be forgetting that UCLA had three straight final four appearances from 2005-2007. The Ben Howland era is where a big chunk of that NBA talent came from (Westbrook, Love, Jrue Holliday, etc.).

lhglrkwg

January 7th, 2020 at 2:50 PM ^

I am always on Team State Championship with you Brian. The GLI - while a cool tradition - has always been something of a snoozer played in front of a few thousand people in Detroit. I won't miss it. Seems like we're always missing a few key guys for the World Juniors anyway.

There's a bunch of different ways to do a state tournament that could be super fun. Hopefully the smaller Michigan schools are less pissed off at us and MSU nowadays and would be somewhat receptive to being friends again

And if you want a permanent 8th team, frankly Notre Dame probably makes the most sense. They're nearby and have a big following in SE Michigan. If that doesn't work, I'd honestly rather have Adrian than some random team rotating in on our state tournament

ex dx dy

January 7th, 2020 at 3:59 PM ^

I love the state championship idea, especially as the state with the most DI college hockey programs. I also hate the idea of some out-of-state school in the tournament. What if they win the whole dang thing? Massive let-down for the entire state.

To keep the single-weekend format, use the KRACH ratings as of the time of the tournament to seed it (I'd settle for Pairwise too, but I'm a KRACH junky). Top 4 teams play the classic tournament, bottom 3 teams play round-robin. That way everyone still plays 2 games.

If you want to use Brian's idea and play 6 games prior to the actual tournament to do the seeding, just have each team play every other team once. There's your 6 games. The problem is that that's 8 games off the non-conference slate, which is a no-go for WCHA teams since that would fill up the entire non-con schedule.

lhglrkwg

January 8th, 2020 at 5:59 AM ^

FYI - I think Michigan has the 3rd most teams. New York has 10, Mass has 8, and we have 7

but anyway, yeah that's the problem with a relatively short hockey season. Not a ton of time to spend playing a zillion non conference games. I'd like pods of 4, everyone plays 3 games and maybe best 2 teams advance to a 4 team knockout tournament? Unfortunate thing there is that then the number of games played is uneven

ex dx dy

January 8th, 2020 at 11:15 AM ^

Good call. I don't pay much attention to the eastern teams before the NCAA tournament, so sometimes I forget those states exist...

If we can do uneven numbers of games, then let's just do a 7-team single-elimination tournament where the 1-seed gets a bye. The NCAA exempts some tournaments from counting toward the 34-game limit, so if they could count this tournament as only a single game even for the winner, who could play 3, then it might work with a cleaner format.

Blue Middle

January 7th, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^

Coach Camp seems likely to leave since he has ties to and affection for Rutgers.

Nico will be on the Biletnikoff watch list and should be.  Hopefully he was promised targets and Michigan delivers in 2020.

The 2020 OL may not be as strong as the 2019 version, but it certainly won't be the weak point of the team.  Getting Steuber back and having a bench loaded with talented and experienced options would be further buttressed by adding Devery Hamilton, but even without him we have great options in Hayes, Filiaga, Vastardis, Carpenter, Barnhart, Hongiford, Rumler, Keegan, Stewart, and Jones.  We only need three of those nine to be ready and two if we get Hamilton.

MBB is in great hands with Juwan.  He may not be as good at coaching as Beilein (we'll see) but he's already proven himself to be a top flight recruiter, which should allow Michigan to sustain JB's success or even build on it, and certainly continue to send guys to the NBA.

JFW

January 7th, 2020 at 4:13 PM ^

I'd also like to see Dylan and Joe spend alot of time with the receivers. I'm a Shea fan; but the 'spent the summer on the golf course' thing wasn't quite what I wanted to hear. 

Going way back I remember reports that Grbac and Desmond spent a long time playing catch in the summer to get everything down. 

Mongo

January 7th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^

As @SamWebb77 discussed on TMI, Nico Collins brings a different element to the #Michigan offense. Per @PFF_College here is the receiving data on throws beyond 20+ yards:

Nico Collins - 9/17, 15.7 YPA, 5 TDs, 113.4 passer rating

Everyone else - 13/48, 8.4 YPA, 2 TDs, 41.3 rating

— Jarad Evans (@Jarad_Evans) January 7, 2020

So maybe our "everyone else" WRs just weren't very good downfield?  That doesn't look like a QB problem to me.  Nico gets open and catches everything, "everyone else" dropped like 8-10 of those other 20+ attempts.  Need to scheme in way more Nico shots downfield ... 100 is hyperbole, but I like that direction versus just 17 !!! 

Edit - starting to feel Milton has a real shot at starting in 2020 given he is best suited to utlilize Nico's downfield skills.  Shea was often a bit short on his deep balls to Nico, where Milton has the arm strength to hit him in stride.

yossarians tree

January 7th, 2020 at 3:46 PM ^

Nico coming back is a huge thing. That and the fact that McCaffrey and Milton are going to be in a heavy competition starting right now can only bode well for the offense building on the momentum it had picked up late in the season. Hopefully the middle of that OL develops quickly.

Blue Middle

January 7th, 2020 at 6:40 PM ^

Meh.  Timing is more important than arm strength.  Patterson has good arm strength, but his deep throws were often late.  Guys like McSorely with weaker arms had much better results throwing deep because they got the ball out faster.  McCaffrey can do that.

The Homie J

January 7th, 2020 at 6:51 PM ^

I will take an accurate arm over any other QB skill 100%.  That being said, modern passing offenses are often built on dudes with cannon arms, and boy does Milton have one.  It's gonna be very interesting to see who comes out on top.  Dylan has more live experience and game reps, and Harbaugh seems to value that more than almost anything else.  But Joe's raw potential is ridiculous.  My only concern is who learns to read a defense better than the other and who can put a freakin' pass on a receiver in stride.  Shea and Speight before him both could be accurate at times, but they both had a tendency to put balls in places that took the WR's off their feet, killing our chances at YAC.  Watching Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts and Dexter Lawrence, one of the things that stands out is how they can repeatedly and expertly put a ball perfectly where it needs to be and give their WR's plenty of opportunity for YAC.

The other thing is I hope it doesn't take another half a season for whoever wins the QB battle to become steady in the system.  There's no reason that Shea needed all the way til Penn State to finally start running the system well.  Whether that's a first year OC learning how to teach or a 4th year Senior QB showing signs of slacking in the offseason, I don't know.  But I've watched enough games from this year to know that the elite QB's, even with new OC's, are much more accurate and locked in from game 1 than any QB of ours has been in a long while.

tspoon

January 8th, 2020 at 9:57 AM ^

While agreeing with your overall point, I would debate the idea that Patterson has good arm strength.  Compared to you, me and some guy off the street, sure.  But compared to other 5* QBs (or, to take the starzz thing out of it, other top Power 5 QBs) ... not so much.

It seemed to me that he refused to accept this reality ... he certainly made decisions as if he thought he had a monster arm.

JPC

January 7th, 2020 at 7:03 PM ^

starting to feel Milton has a real shot at starting in 2020 given he is best suited to utlilize Nico's downfield skills.

Yeah, Milton's ability to throw super fast right to the other team is really going to help Nico out. 

outsidethebox

January 8th, 2020 at 9:07 AM ^

Come on man. What it "screams" is that he has not been on the field very much-only very late in super mop-up duty time. So he was also throwing to very inexperienced receivers. Just saying...jumping to hard and fast conclusions here is silly.

I am excited to see both these young men receive an opportunity. My intuition tells me that Dylan has the best chance of being a positive play-maker. However, I love Milton's up-side and want to see how he translates that in an authentic opportunity situation-and that means not simply one game or a series here and there.