Michigan Softball's 2022 season came to a close this weekend at the Orlando Regional against UCF. The Wolverines were able to beat the South Dakota State Jackrabbits twice, but were unable to take a game from the host Knights. Michigan led 2-1 in the seventh inning of the first meeting with UCF, as the hosts were down to their final strike before an RBI double tied the game and sent it to marathon extras. In the 11th inning the Knights would walk it off, and they led wire-to-wire in the second meeting en route to a 9-4 victory. 

With Michigan's season coming to a close, this final Softball Roundup will do two things: first we'll examine the roster heading into next year, looking at the returning players and incoming recruits, and then the second half of the piece will take an eagle eye look at where the program now sits. That will include some difficult questions that now need to be asked about a program that hasn't made it out of the opening weekend in six years. 

 

Looking Ahead to 2023 

This Michigan team was decently laden with veterans, which was the reasoning behind the lofty expectations entering the season, something this group fell short of, unfortunately. As a result, we will likely see some considerable turnover in the offseason. The top three hitters on the team were seniors, Kristina Burkhardt, Lexie Blair, and Hannah Carson. Burkhardt is gone for sure, a grad student who is out of eligibility, while Carson and Blair both retain their COVID-shirts and the ability to come back for fifth years. If Blair is interested in returning, I think you have to open a spot for her on the roster. Taylor Bump, who didn't have a great offensive season but did lead the team in HRs, is also out of eligibility.

Audrey LeClair and Lauren Esman are both juniors and will be able to return, although neither of those two players had OPS clips >.800. Ella McVey, Annabelle Widra, and Elie Sieler were all freshmen and should return, though none had an OPS >.700. Keke Tholl and Sierra Kersten were sophomores, while Melina Livingston is maybe the biggest question eligibility-wise. Livingston played three seasons at PSU, 2019-21, before transferring to Michigan. She was listed as a "graduate student" on the roster, but she has only played four seasons of college softball and one of them was the COVID year. Does she have the ability to return? I'm not sure, but if she does, I'd be interested in bringing her .820 OPS and defensive versatility back. 

To summarize, Michigan will bring the bulk of the hitters back, but if neither Carson nor Blair return, the four hitters the Wolverines are losing are their three best, as well as their most powerful. For a team that struggled mightily on offense when the season was on the line, that is not a great indicator. We'll evaluate the incoming hitters momentarily, but let's next check in on the pitchers. 

Lauren Derkowski will be a big piece in the circle next season [JD Scott]

Michigan's veteran presence in the circle was centered on Alex Storako and Meghan Beaubien. Storako is in the Blair/Carson class, having played four years but retaining the COVID-shirt. She has the ability to return and it would seem to me that Michigan should be interested in making that happen, despite Storako's struggles in the second half of the year. Beaubien is in the same boat as Taylor Bump, having used her fifth year this season, so she is officially out of options. That leaves the three freshmen pitchers, Lauren Derkowski, Annabelle Widra, and Emerson Aiken (who didn't pitch much) as the nucleus of the pitching staff moving forward. Getting Storako back would blunt some of the weight falling on their shoulders, but either way, Michigan will be replacing at least 100 innings from Beaubien, and someone will need to step up to seize those.

The incoming freshman class is slanted towards hitting and it has a pair of high-level, blue chip prospects. Local kid Lilly Vallimont is the #5 player in the country out of Trenton High School, a slugging catcher who is the top catching recruit in America. She also plays shortstop and seems to have a mix of athleticism and power. Infielder Avery Fantucci is the #6 player in the country, a contact and speed hitter with great on-base ability and few strikeouts. Players in the top ten of the recruiting rankings typically step in right away and contribute, so I would expect both Vallimont and Fantucci to play from the jump. 

Maddie Erickson is the lone pitcher in the class, a two-way player who hits for power while being an excellent pitcher in Oregon HS softball. Janelle Ilacqua is from South Carolina, an infield prospect who is the #32 overall player in the country, and appears to be another speed and contact type, with a penchant for stolen bases. The class is rounded out with two IF/OF prospects, Indiana Langford, the #36 player in the class and someone Hutch compared to Abby Ramirez, as well as Maddie Ramey, the annual unranked local kid and a lefty hitter with a little power. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Existential questions]

Is this the end of Lexie? [JD Scott]

It's yet another good class, but it is worth wondering whether this class fills the main hole that Michigan is lacking (power hitting). Most of the prospects are described as speed and contact types, but the Wolverines are already pretty saturated on that kind of player. That said, if these freshmen come in and get on at .400+, then it only matters so much. We will investigate some of the issues plaguing the team on this front momentarily. 

Michigan is bringing in a six player recruiting class, and if Livingston is gone, then there are four "grad students" who are leaving for sure. There are three seniors, Blair, Carson, and Storako, but as mentioned previously, it would be optimal to get as many of those back as possible. Thus, space may need to be opened from attrition. It wouldn't surprise me to see the following names leave the program: Ryleigh Carricaburu, Lexi Voss, Kaylee America Rodriguez, and Jessica Garmen. They are all players who have played multiple seasons and are yet to see the field much, or when they have, they haven't played well. If all four bail, you could potentially bring in all the freshmen and retain Blair and Storako. Or, if none of the seniors want to come back, you could have space for some more transfers. All options worth considering. 

Overall, I wouldn't expect 2023 Michigan Softball to be radically different than what it was this season, or what it has been in recent years. They still have plenty of talent and will be returning a good bit of production. If they could get Storako back, that's a high floor, but as always, the question will be whether the team can hit. It doesn't feel like next season will be an "all-in" season, but there's no reason to believe they won't be in the tournament, one of the top two or three teams in the B1G, and probably on that cusp of hosting a regional. There are much worse places to be, but it also feels like exactly the same place this program has been for a half-decade now. Which is what we're about to talk about. 

 

[JD Scott]

Asking the difficult questions 

After being knocked out of the NCAA Tournament in the regional for the fifth straight tournament, it is unfortunately time to ask some tough questions about what level of program Michigan is at this point, and why that is. As the final innings of the 2022 season ticked away on Sunday, the sentiment crawling into my brain was one of Deja Vu. For yet another season, Michigan was going to be sent home early because they could not muster the necessary offense to win when the season was on the line. That feeling in my brain was summed up perfectly by this tweet from former Michigan Daily sportswriter Aria Gerson: 

I covered this team four years ago and it is absolutely wild how they are still the same team and same narrative https://t.co/748qrslRD7

— Aria Gerson (@aria_gerson) May 22, 2022

Aria is the same age as me and my first year covering Michigan Softball for WCBN Sports was the one referenced in her tweet, the 2018 season when we were both freshmen. Perhaps the most troubling indicator of the present state of Michigan Softball is not that the program hasn't seriously challenged for anything nationally since Barack Obama was president, although that fact brings me no pleasure to report. Instead, it's that the reason why Michigan Softball didn't challenge for anything nationally in 2018 is the exact same reason in 2022. The years change, but the problems stay the same. I have covered this team for five seasons now, and this program has not had an offense that was good enough to punch the team's ticket back to OKC even once in that span. 

In recent years, power hitting has become increasingly correlated with strong performance in the NCAA Tournament. In the three most recent NCAA Tournaments (2018-19, 2021), six of the eight teams who made the WCWS finished in the top 25 in the country in home runs per game. Michigan finished 75th, 50th, and 70th those three years, and just concluded a season ranked 134th. It should not come as a surprise that the last time Michigan finished in the top 25 in home runs per game was also the last time they made it to Oklahoma City (2016). 

[JD Scott]

The problem with power hitting is not a northern-school specific issue. The center of power in college softball is still down in the sun belt stretching to the pacific, but other B1G teams are building far better power offenses and typically with lesser recruits. Michigan finished 7th in home runs per game this season in the conference, 6th in 2019, and 6th in 2018, with only last year's finish (2nd) standing out as a positive (and even then they were well below #1 Minnesota) during the span. It's even more frustrating when you factor in recruiting: Michigan reeled in the top recruiting class in the B1G and top 20 nationally in both 2018 and 2019, yet couldn't build a high-end offense out of those parts.

The coaches seem to prioritize speed and contact over power when recruiting, which feels out of step with the way modern college softball operates. In a world where Oklahoma is rolling out an offense with six double digit HR hitters in their lineup, it feels obsolete to be chasing slap-hitting recruits who can lay down the bunt as often as Michigan has. And frankly, as someone who watches a good bit of national softball, watching a team like Oklahoma or Arkansas or Arizona State and then watching Michigan sometimes feels like watching two different sports. The Wolverines have clearly fallen behind the pack nationally. It wasn't all that long ago that Michigan boasted an offense of that caliber, but we're also far enough removed from the days of Sierra Romero that you can't just blindly ignore the obvious problem festering. 

This isn't to denigrate what Michigan has done well. They've pitched exceptionally well over the time that I've covered NCAA Softball, which is also a statistic that correlates very closely with NCAA Tournament performance. Michigan has been in the top 25 in team ERA each of the four full seasons since 2018, which is close to a prerequisite to making Oklahoma City, and got seasons for the ages from Beaubien in '18 and Storako last year. It's just that ERA can only take you so far if you can't generate offense consistently against elite pitchers, and the best way to do so is through the long ball. 

[JD Scott]

That fact underscores the point I'm making: four years ago they were a team that could pitch really well but couldn't hit well enough to win big in May, and this season they were a team that could pitch well but couldn't hit well enough to win big in May. It was apparent my first season covering the team what the problem was and it's apparent now, and that problem is the same thing. Which is despite the roster completely turning over in those four years and new recruiting classes being added to the fold. When the problems are the same even as the players change, the only party you can fault is the coaching.  

No one can deny the greatness of Carol Hutchins as an all-time coach and a legend of the sport. If you're making a list of the central people who helped change the sport of NCAA Softball over the past 50 years, Hutchins is near the top of that list. College softball hasn't been around all that long; most programs were founded in the aftermath of Title IX in the mid-to-late 70s. The first Women's College World Series was held in 1982, also Hutchins' first season coaching at Ferris State. She took over Michigan in 1985, when the program had been around for less than a decade. When she took the team to the tournament for the first time in 1992, just 20 teams competed. This season, there are 64 teams.

Over Carol Hutchins' time at Michigan, NCAA Softball transformed from a small, niche sport that schools were merely obligated to offer to one that draws 11,000+ fans each game in Oklahoma City and a sport whose championship round attracted over 1 M eyeballs on ESPN last season (more than the men's baseball championship round!). Nearly 300 schools now offer softball at the D1 level, as the growth of this sport has been remarkable. Carol Hutchins' role in making that possible is massive. She was a trailblazer, a pioneer, and has never ceased to be a tireless advocate for women in sports and for softball everywhere, putting her fingerprints all over this sport that I have come to love. Some of my best moments studying at the University of Michigan came in the press box of Alumni Field, and in the car or on the plane following this team around. Covering Michigan Softball has given me so much over the past five seasons, and Carol Hutchins is directly responsible for that. 

Bonnie Tholl at first base [JD Scott]

Which is why it pains me to seriously wonder whether she is the best coach to lead Michigan Softball forward, if the program wishes to return to being a serious national contender. Hutchins signed a contract extension in the fall of 2017 that would run through the 2022 season. An MLive article from December 2020 reported that said contract is set to expire on June 20, 2022, and there has been no announcement of any kind about her contract status since then. In which case, I am left to assume that her contract is going to expire within a month. 

Hutchins turns 65 this week and retirement speculation is nothing new to those who follow Michigan Softball closely. It feels close to certain that if Hutchins signs an extension, that will be the final contract of her career. Warde Manuel, and no one in the athletic department really, is in any position to let Hutchins' contract expire if she wishes to keep coaching. You earn that right over 37 years as the only face Michigan Softball has ever known. But I am left here at the end of the season wondering if it is in the best interest of the program if Hutchins opts for retirement and the Wolverines are able to bring a new leader to the helm. 

It would be a very reasonable time for a new coach to step in. Despite my frustrations over Michigan's continual inability to hit for power, they are still a top 20-25 program nationally. That is a clear decline from the top 5-10 program they had been from 2000-16, but Michigan is also not MSU. They are competitive in the regional and have been right on the cusp of hosting a regional in each of the last three seasons.

I can't say with a straight face that Michigan is a national contender anymore, which is why I am writing this section of the piece, but they are still a good program with a strong national brand that isn't too far away from getting back in contention for OKC. The roster is still stocked with talent, and as noted earlier, the incoming recruiting class is very strong. If they could merely maintain the level of pitching from the past four seasons and add a few bona fide sluggers, the WCWS is very possible.

It would be an extremely attractive head coaching job and Hutchins' legendary status has spawned a sizable coaching tree, of which there would be numerous appealing branches. Options would range from a trusty in-house candidate like Bonnie Tholl to young up-and-comer Marissa Young, a former Wolverine player who has built the Duke program from scratch, taking them from inception to the Super Regionals in just five seasons. 

[James Coller]

At the end of the day, the ball is in Hutchins' court. She has earned the right to coach for as long as she would like. While no one should count out the possibility that she could return this program to OKC, little has been demonstrated in the past five years to indicate that Michigan Softball is trending in that direction. They seem stuck in the mud, with the same problems year after year, almost like a scene from Groundhog Day. As someone who also writes about Michigan Hockey, I would be lying if I claimed that I didn't feel any similarities between the past five years of Hutch and the late Red years. To Hutch's credit, Michigan Softball is in a better position as a program now than they were in the last years of Red, but the pessimist's take would be that that reality is all the more reason why a switch may be better now rather than later. 

In the end, I can't say where Michigan Softball is headed next as a program. So much hinges on what happens with the coaching staff in the coming months, but something will need to change in order to get Michigan back to where they were in the Romero days. Either the current coaching staff needs to show some degree of willingness to change up the formula, or a different group with a fresh set of eyes may be better off leading the team forward. 

Michigan Softball is a good program that I have gotten so much enjoyment covering. I know that some people will read this and be ready to burn me at the stake for writing this section and questioning the greatness of a legend of the sport. To that I merely ask that readers make an attempt to understand my reasoning and accept that I'm no different than any of you. I'm a fan who badly wants to see this team return to Oklahoma City and am frustrated that they are not any closer to that goal than they were when I was a wide-eyed freshman in college. In that context, I would be silly to omit reasonable questions because it is taboo. I will say this, though: no matter who is leading Michigan Softball next season, I will be back here in early February 2023, hyped up for the season to start.