Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Penn State	[Eric Upchurch]
WHERE	Beaver Stadium State College, PA
WHEN	7:30 Eastern
THE LINE	PSU -9
TELEVISION	ABC
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	mostly clear, high 40s 0% precip, minimal wind

Overview

Lately this series has morphed into one of the most fan-service oriented in college football. Last year, 110k Michigan fans watched the Wolverines beat PSU's head in 42-7. The year before 107k Penn State fans watched a 42-13 stomping; the year before that Michigan hammered PSU 49-10.

The series of alternating blowouts now lands with Michigan in the unhappy position, and it's at night, and a whiteout, and Michigan seems to think the goal of football is to fumble in a particularly expressive fashion. Fan morale is low.

But, folks, I'm here to tell you. I am here to tell you that Penn State was in a dogfight against Buffalo and the final score of that game doesn't represent a –100 gap in total yardage. I'm here to tell you that PSU won a disgusting game against Pitt largely because Pat Narduzzi kicked a field goal from the PSU one yard line, and missed. I'm here to tell you that PSU got meaningfully outgained by Iowa, which… I mean, you know, Iowa.

I am here to tell you that we are probably going to lose this game but by God it's probably going to be less than a 500 point deficit. Yeah.

[Hit THE JUMP for FRAMES]

Run Offense vs Penn State

now would be the time [Upchurch]

On a pure, unadjusted yards-per-carry basis this is the #1 rush defense in the country, a hair ahead of… ugh, Wisconsin.

It's a strange fact that the rushing attack that's experienced the most success against PSU this year is Buffalo's, and even that wasn't particularly successful with 193 yards on a whopping 57 carries. Everyone else has gotten clunked:

• Pitt: 38 yards on 22 carries.
• Maryland: 85 yards on 30 carries
• Purdue: 67 yards on 18 carries
• Iowa: 87 yards on 28 carries

Yikes. The MAC team is the only PSU opponent to crest 100 yards; Purdue's 3.7 YPC is the season-high mark for PSU's D. Now, most of these teams have been abject all season. Pitt (#111 in YPC), Purdue (#129), and Iowa(#82) are all horrible at running the ball—Iowa in particular has fallen off badly once the cupcakes stopped coming. Maryland is pretty good but hit Penn State when their sine wave was at its nadir. Unfortunately, Michigan can't claim to be meaningfully better than Iowa—they're one spot below the Hawkeyes in YPC.

Michigan's hope is that dismal spot is because of a stupid idea to stop doing the things that made last year's run game go, and that the 6 YPC outburst against Illinois in which Michigan resumed doing those things is sustainable going forward.

This will be a pretty clean test of that theory. These are pretty much the same guys who Michigan played last year; that game ended with Michigan cresting five yards a carry (264 yards on 51 attempts). Michigan brought back the bulk of their rushing attack. Penn State has obviously improved quite a bit, but a strategically good Michigan ground game should be able to approach, if not quite match, those numbers. PSU plays two WDEs, pretty much, and Michigan's success against Iowa featured a ton of plays where those ends were tested: split zone, pin and pull, and arc stuff all heavily depend on getting DEs blocked or optioned.

This could be a test that PSU hasn't seen yet, or it could devolve back in to the we-have-no-base stuff that most of the season's been like. Also Michigan could fumble six times and lose three.

KEY MATCHUP: NICK EUBANKS and SEAN MCKEON vs PENN STATE EMLOS. End men on the line of scrimmage should be a weak point for a PSU defense that hasn't had any to date, and last year's Michigan had a zillion ways to dick with those guys.

Pass Offense vs Penn State

I HAVE MY RENTAL AGREEMENT [Bryan Fuller]

I'm just going to lead with it this time: Arm. Punts. Now.

Penn State leads the country in sacks. That is in part because an overwhelmed backup Purdue QB didn't know what to do to the tune of ten(ten!) sacks in one game. It is also because PSU returns Yetur Gross-Matos (8 sacks in 2018, 5.5 in 2019), Shaka Toney (5 sacks in a rotation role last year, 5.5 as a full-timer this year) and Robert Windsor (7.5 sacks as a DT in 2018, 2.5 this year) from last year's D. These guys get after it.

PSU also has a veteran corps of defensive backs featuring a couple of fifth-year seniors, and juniors who are returning starters (or close enough). They play a lot of zone; they don't bust a lot of assignments. The combination of an excellent pass rush, some of which points at Michigan tackles that are not elite, with a heady, veteran secondary sounds like absolute doom. Add in a night Beaver Stadium whiteout and Shea Patterson might leave some pockets before the snap.

Nico Collins will return, though and two of those veteran secondary members (CB John Reid and S Lamont Wade)are 5'9". It doesn't matter how PSU lines up, there's going to be a tiny guy against one of DPJ, Black, or Collins. So it seems like it's time to go full Ole Miss here and dedicate a healthy section of the playbook to some of the most idiot-proof 1-v-1 plays in football.

BRANDON SMITH JUST DID THAT

What a catch by the @HawkeyeFootball WR to keep Iowa in it: pic.twitter.com/t6YnOfHDC9

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 13, 2019

I know Seth said that Reid is savvy and doesn't get burned like this a lot, but this… this is a terrible throw. It is at a bad receiver. It is complete because Reid is a smurf. It is 33% of the points needed to beat Penn State. I don't care if John Reid is savvy. Unless he's going to run downfield with a stepstool and set it up at the point where the pass is coming down, he's going to get dunked on if you give Michigan's WRs sufficient at-bats. (Now I need a hockey metaphor.)

Is punting the ball downfield to Collins/DPJ/Black going to be reliable? No. Is it going to be productive? Eh, depends on your definition. Is it going to get the ball out quickly? Yes. Does it limit decision-making? Yes. Is Nico Collins going to jump on various Penn State defensive backs until he gets an extra life? Could happen. Is this a despair strategy? Yes. Do you have anything better? Boy that would be nice, huh?

I mean, PSU could play in the parking lot like a lot of Michigan opponents have and then you'd just have to complete the short stuff in front of this, which Michigan actually did some against Illinois so hooray for that. But asking Patterson to read across the middle in this game seems like it's doomed unless it's some slants or something as a changeup. It is time to get stupid with your barbarians. LFG.

KEY MATCHUP: NICO COLLINS vs SMURF. I am reaching my Planes, Trains, and Automobiles limit about this.

Run Defense vs Penn State

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnF9sqfbc5c

guys go backwards when Cain hits them

After a half-season spent rotating guys with indifferent results, Penn State appears to have settled on a #1 running back. That would be freshman Noah Cain, who about singlehandedly sealed the Iowa game by becoming a one-man four-minute drill. Michigan recruitniks may remember Cain bein on Michigan's radar early, before Charbonnet became the main focus.

Cain got 22 carries against Iowa; the rest of the four-man platoon (Journey Brown, Ricky Slade, and Devyn Ford) got four each. That sounds like a decision being made. Seth came out of his PSU scout with an absurd grade for Cain…

In the history of MGoBlog—which includes a season of Mike Hart—never has a running back come close to the +23/-2 I charted for true freshman IMG product Noah Cain, a solid 5-star to the other services but just 266th to 24/7 because they had some vision questions. Michigan's pursuit ended when all the big SEC schools (sans Bama) were hard after Cain, so it says something about Franklin and his program that Cain chose to join a backfield already stacked with young blue chips.

I did see the vision issues pop up occasionally, but Penn State's offense doesn't really leave many opportunities for the back to choose from more than one or two. When it comes to hitting the gap they gave him, the 5-star is on display.

…so expect that to continue: Cain, leavened with cameos from the other guys.

Whether that will be enough to do much of anything against Michigan's run defense is an open question. Penn State's ground game has been… odd. PSU RBs got a total of 11 carries against Buffalo, and got 39 yards on those carries. Journey Brown had an 85-yard touchdown against Pitt; PSU's other 28 carries got 3.8 YPC. Maryland got stomped, mostly in the air but also on the ground, in one of the best offensive performances of the year, nationwide. The shattered corpse of Purdue offered little resistance, and then the Iowa game.

True to form, the Iowa defense gave up nothing long—PSU's long run of the day was 12 yards—but steadily bled yards three and four at a time. Cain cracked 100 yards thanks largely to his own abilities. To have an RB grade that high for a guy who ground out 4.6 YPC implies some things about the rest of the unit, and yup:

The right guard position has an equal rotation between starter/6th man Mike Miranda (+1.5/-11, –0) who can pass block but often whiffs on guys or gets discarded in run blocking, and top-100 brick house CJ Thorpe (+2/-3, –0), who should have the job by now. And then there's our old friend RT Will Fries (+4/-16, –1), who's been starting for three years, has improved much as a pass blocker, sometimes makes an impressive heady veteran play, and still manages to dorf ten plays a game because he's got zero spatial awareness. The pass blocking might also be a mirage—PFF thought fellow onetime Michigan target Rashad Weaver did work against him in the Pitt game and no other opponent has much pass rush from his side.

PSU's 93rd in the country in runs of 10+ yards but has ripped off two 80+ yard runs to keep their overall averages up. It's a wobbly unit that hopes Cain can patch over some holes. Wisconsin this is not.

Also in not Wisconsin: Penn State remains dedicated to using their quarterback on the ground. Sean Clifford is averaging 8.2 non-sack carries per game, and acquiring 6.3 yards per carry. This is still basically the Moorhead offense, so expect that to be at least half called QB runs, and more if necessary because the defense isn't giving them reads.

Michigan's bounced back from a horrible outing against Wisconsin, and while there are still some issues with the second DT and a maniacal new MLB this is probably going to be more Iowa than Wisconsin.

KEY MATCHUP: CAM MCGRONE vs YOU DON'T HAVE TO MAKE EVERY TACKLE. A few different Illinois chunks were McGrone trying to do everything, and if the PSU run offense is going to do things it's probably going to take some Michigan back seven errors.

Pass Defense vs Penn State

Ace as Wolverine with this in the picture frame dot jpg [Bill Rapai]

Sean Clifford was anointed the starter almost by default when Tommy Stevens peaced out to follow Moorhead this offseason. He's been a flamethrower against Purdue, Maryland, and Buffalo. Against Pitt and Iowa, by far the two best defenses PSU has played, he's completed 49% of his passes for 6.3 YPA. Michigan has been similar in results to those teams this year, and is now a lot closer to Iowa in style than they've ever been before.

Lavert Hill is expected to return at full strength; PSU's outside receivers are Jahan Dotson, who's solid but not amazing, and then a bunch of guys with a few catches on the season. Freshman Justin Shorter is a freshman; a five star freshman in the giant fast burly guy mold, but still a freshman. Bombing it at Hill and Thomas is probably going to happen and probably won't be effective except that one to three times per game when the tiny windows get hit.

The real action is going to come on the interior, where slot KJ "Speedy Eaglet" Hamler has 26 catches, 18 yards per, and does this to real live humans who are on a very good football defense:

Can anyone explain KJ Hamler to me? pic.twitter.com/QBrS2G0Mj8

— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) October 14, 2019

Hamler's sidekick is Pat Freiermuth, another flex tight end in the Gesicki/Gentry mold, but less allergic to blocking. Seth on those two:

The receivers are hyper-talented, starting with slot KJ "Speedy Eaglet" Hamler (455 yards, 65% catch rate, 5 TDs, 11.4 YPT, +9/-0, one drop in this game), who is justifying every time we've had to hear Ace bitch in our Slack chat about Michigan not pursuing the slippery local prospect these many years. A lot of the offense goes through him or the tight ends. The #1 is "Baby Gronk" Pat Freiermuth (203 yards, 68% catch rate, "3" but really 4 TDs, 8.1 YPT, +7/-2 as a blocker) a very lengthy New England dude with a nose for the end zone.

Those guys will stress Michigan's linebackers and especially safeties; resign yourself to a couple RPO chunk plays. But Iowa was able to confuse Clifford's reads; he looked extremely uncomfortable trying to poke holes in a zone with a lot of dudes in it. Seth asserted there's a lot of "Shea disease" in Clifford's game right now, and that's about right. Clifford exits clean pockets, is impatient getting through his progressions, and seems to make pre-snap decisions and stick to them even when they turn out to be bad ideas.

Clifford's got a rocket arm and solid mobility and could develop into a star. Right now he might not be the right guy to take on a newly tricky Michigan pass defense, especially since Michigan's pass rush has flown up to 13th nationally in sacks despite a game against Army. If Michigan does give him quick, easy decisions (RPOs) he's not likely to mess them up; if they can trap his first reads things are going to look a lot like Iowa, with the walls caving in and a QB getting sped up. PSU's given up ten sacks this year—about average. Michigan should get to them with some regularity. This looks like a game for Josh Uche given the wobbly PSU tackles.

KEY MATCHUP: JOSH METELLUS and BRAD HAWKINS vs SPEEDY EAGLET. I'm fine with it if they get juked and give up a first down, but Hamler has the potential to whip guys over the top for big play TDs.

SPECIAL TEAMS

KJ Hamler has taken over full-time punt return duties a year after splitting opportunities. To date he hasn't done much—16 returns, six yards per—but given the way Michigan punts and Hamler's general Hamler-ness this is going to be a nerve-wracking thing. Long punts with two gunners are going to give Hamler a shot at breaking something, several times.

Hamler also returns kicks, so if Michigan could stop with the cute pop-ups that would be appreciated.

Punter Blake Gillikin returns; he's been a picture of reliability. His punts don't go super far (a 41 yard average) but opponents have 12 return yards all year. PSU did give up a TD and 8.6 yards per return last year, so that might be luck.

PSU has rotated Jordan Stout and Jake Pinegar for field goals. Stout's 2/3, Pinegar is 5/6. Pinegar is coming off a wobbly 2018 where he hit just 16/24 field goals and missed two extra points, so there's a possibility for some #collegekickers action. Stout is getting touchbacks on a whopping 84% of his kickoffs, FWIW.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Michigan expects Patterson to read levels against this D in this environment.
• The footballs do not have phone cases on them.
• Hamler's winding up for a punt return with nobody within ten yards of him.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Last week's blast from the recent past run approach continues, works, and pays off with Patterson keeps.
• Clifford is blasted into the land of happy feet.
• There's an opportunity for some game theory.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 7 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Our Turn To Lose By One Hundred, +1 for Night Road Game, +1 for Whiteout, +1 for Also We're Not That Good At Football, –1 for Frames!, +1 for Certain Frames-Like Behaviors From Michigan, –1 for Spiderman Pointing QBs, –1 for At Least We Outgained Iowa)

Desperate need to win level: 8 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Opportunity To Change Season Narrative, +1 for Frames Narrative Tough To Maintain Unless Michigan Actually Beats Him, +1 for Sizeable Nerf To Annoying Road Game Stat, +1 for Also It's Not Like That Road Game Stat Is Wrong, –1 for BPONE)

Loss will cause me to… listen to Ace moan about KJ Hamler for 15 minutes straight on the podcast.

Win will cause me to… listen to Ace moan about KJ Hamler for 3 minutes straight on the podcast.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Signs point to a grim slog as this game turns into Iowa 2.0 for both teams. Clifford's completing less than half his passes against Michigan-esque pass defenses and the PSU ground game is a lot of stop and start that put Clifford in passing downs he's not great at dealing with right now.

On the other side of the ball, a Michigan rush offense that's been constitutionally incapable of breaking big plays until last week. A Michigan pass offense that has existed in fits and starts and has a weakness against excellent DEs, who get to the QB and then Patterson loses his cool.

This will come down to big swing plays that interleave between the various punts, and that feels like advantage PSU because their playmakers are getting the ball a lot and Michigan's aren't.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• I'm either furious or depressed about the number of Collins involvements.
• The run game does perk up even against a D that's been superb so far this year, because they just listen to Warinner and stop doing anything except listen to Warinner.
• Penn State, 19-15