[Patrick Barron]

Preview: Iowa 2019 Comment Count

Brian October 4th, 2019 at 2:25 PM

Essentials

WHAT Michigan vs Iowa

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[Barron]

WHERE Michigan Stadium

Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN Noon Eastern
THE LINE Michigan –3.5
TELEVISION FOX
TICKETS exist
WEATHER around 60, partly cloudy

~0% chance of rain

10 mph wind

Overview

A neat summary of how it's gone so far: this line opened at Michigan –7 after being listed at Michigan –15.5 in the offseason, and the public hammered it down to –3.5. I've been writing game previews for a long time and I don't think I've seen a line shift that material*.  The world is down on your Michigan Wolverines.

The world is not necessarily wrong, but it easily could be. Iowa's season to date consists of victories over some very bad teams and one dodgy win over a P5 opponent. The very bad teams include MTSU, who Iowa just clunked 48-3, and Rutgers, who they beat 30-0 a couple weeks ago. Michigan also played those teams and had about the same aggregate score, give or take some fumbles.

The dodgy win was an 18-17 El Assico triumph over Iowa State during which they were outgained by 100 yards and didn't have to face down a potential game-winning drive because of, well… this:

But "is Michigan meaningfully better than Iowa State?" is a question you can ask with a straight face, so damn near anything could happen.

*[ie, maybe a Michigan –38 line has become –34 at some point, but in terms of who's gonna win this is unusual]

[Hit THE JUMP for Kurt "Balls Out" Fugnitz]

Run Offense vs Iowa

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win or lose at the mesh point [Bryan Fuller]

Iowa's run defense has been a cipher so far this year. You remember MTSU and their all-perimeter-crap offense. Meanwhile Miami(NTM) is #127 in rushing average; Rutgers is #110; Iowa State is #52. Even that latter game was almost a non-event on the ground. Iowa State RBs got a total of nine carries; Brock Purdy had eight non-sack rushes. Between them they acquired 91 yards on 19 carries, 4.8 a pop. This is the extent of the evidence Iowa has laid down about their rush D so far this year.

Last year Iowa was very Iowa: 22nd in SP+ rush D largely because they gave up very little in the way of explosive plays, very bad at getting to guys near the LOS (111th in stuff rate), and regular bad at preventing the first five yards (75th). Expect much of the same; Iowa will run their usual cover two 4-3 with DTs endeavoring to hold up at the LOS, not penetrate:

The way Iowa plays their DTs they're not supposed to penetrate except on the blitzes (about 20% of the defense) or passing downs. Most of what they're doing is preventing linemen from releasing to the linebackers, and trusting the linebackers to clean up. It's similar to how Northwestern plays. There's a lot of the kind of defensive holding that doesn't ever get called, and a lot of slanting that can turn into detritus linemen on the ground right where you were planning to put a nice paved running path.

AJ Epenesa is the star and should be unblocked a lot because he gets up a lot of momentum at nearly 300 pounds and change of direction once he's rolling can be an issue, so this is going to hinge on the thing this site has been pounding on all season: can Michigan get back to last year's effective arc-read based rush offense, or are we going to be grinding into boxes down a man again?

I do not know. Oblique injuries tend to linger, and talk from the press conferences this week made it seem like prospects for Dylan McCaffrey's return were pretty dim. If Patterson isn't keeping enough to keep Iowa honest there's no path to a good run game out of the gun.

Michigan could get some yards here and there by doubling some dudes and moving them out; Iowa's DTs are just guys for the most part and depth there is an issue. Explosive plays would have to rely on Iowa mistakes or a Michigan running back creating a bunch of yards on his own. Iowa doesn't make a lot of mistakes—they were second in preventing explosive plays on the ground last year—so without ~8 Patterson carries and the respect they engender this will be a grind.

I'd like to think that Rutgers was a no-carry day because Rutgers and that Michigan will break the arc back out, but there's some chance this is just the offense now and we're deleting as many reads as we can from Patterson's plate. That would be extremely frustrating after last year's renaissance but hello welcome to Michigan football fandom, take a seat in the Black Pit of Negative Expectations please. 

KEY MATCHUP: PATTERSON vs TAKE THE YARDS, CHALLENGE THE SHUFFLE. Iowa State gave Iowa a little bit of the business with arc read so they've no doubt tried to polish that up over the past couple weeks, but however Michigan goes at the Iowa defense if they don't put the mesh guy in conflict at all it's going to be another 3-4 YPC day.

Pass Offense vs Iowa

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Epenesa: pretty much Brandon Graham

Here, too, Iowa's season is mostly a shruggie. You remember MTSU's all-perimeter-crap offense. In addition to that you've got Miami, currently 98th in YPA, and Rutgers, currently carrying Artur Sitkowski around in a straightjacket in case he escapes to FCS. Once again El Assico is our only touchstone. Iowa gave up a 51-yard trick play TD and this 73-yard post route when one of their safeties lost his mind on a switch route.

There were 33 other Brock Purdy attempts. 23 of those were completed (hooray)… for 203 yards (boo). That's 6.1 YPA, the dinkiest of dunks. Here too Iowa retains the bend-but-don't break crown they rarely relinquish. Except when one of their safeties is losing his mind.

That might continue into this week, as Iowa's secondary personnel is a little banged up:

…that's Mario's brother, Michael Ojemudia (+2/-3.5 in coverage, +2/-0 vs run), and yes he's somehow pretty decent, though I think he plays soft to make up for his general Ojemudianess. The other cornerback spot had meh/oft-injured Matt Hankins at it last year, backed up by meh Julius Brents, and now features redshirt freshman DJ Johnson (+7/-6, +2/-1), who's holding down the fort for Hankins (out) but remains ahead of Brents, who returns this week. ISU tested Johnson all day and he was mostly there on the deep stuff and not there for the first ten yards underneath.

It's a similar story with safety, where preseason projected starter Kaevon Merriweather is back but according to reports is now stuck behind FS Jack Koerner (+4/-11 coverage, +1/-0 run), who gave up most of ISU's points on a pair of EXTREME –4s, thus the cyan. SS Geno Stone (+3/-2 coverage, +3/-1 run) got to start at strong safety last year when the old SS was drafted for hybrid duty, although Stone himself looks and plays a lot like a hybrid. He also got to spend most of this day chilling while ISU ignored his side for the Koerner/Johnson one.

Koerner is probably getting coached up on switch routes on a daily basis; I'd still assume this is a bit less of a machine than it usually is.

A big reason that the Cyclones were so dink-heavy against Iowa was AJ Epenesa. Don't be fooled by his pedestrian numbers (7 tackles, 1 sack). At 280-290 he is ripping past offensive tackle on the edge and driving them to the quarterback. He looks like what we wanted Rashan Gary to look like. Check out the FFFF if you want to feel bad about things.

Epenesa is getting zero help from the rest of his DL; the DTs are Kemp/Mone types who offer close to zero pass rush, and the departure of Anthony Nelson on the other side has hurt quite a bit. Michigan should be able to double Epenesa a lot, and given early season returns from Runyan and Mayfield they're going to have to if they want to push the ball downfield.

And they should. Iowa's athleticism in the secondary isn't on par with Michigan's WR corps, and they're back to playing a standard 4-3 after a year in which they had a legitimate spacebacker on the field at all times. Four verts looks appealing; chucking Donovan Peoples-Jones in the slot and testing Koerner and Stone's ability to run looks equally good. Blocking up Epenesa is necessary and probably sufficient to make that work.

The lingering question for Michigan, other than containing Epenesa, is whether Shea Patterson can reliably make on-time throws that find holes in Iowa's zone. Patterson has been pulling the ball down after a read or two far too often early in the season. The bounteous amount of time his line bought him against Rutgers transformed him into a 12 YPA sniper; harsher environments remain an open question.

KEY MATCHUP: PATTERSON vs A LOT OF GUYS IN A ZONE. Michigan whittled down the playbook against Rutgers to give him a platform to work from; hopefully he can expand his repertoire a bit here.

Run Defense vs Iowa

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Tristan Wirfs is part Colosseum

Iowa was utterly miserable on the ground a year ago, finishing 122nd in SP+ overall and in explosiveness despite the presence of the big tackles and a veteran interior OL. The tackles are back; the interior has largely turned over. Results to date have been better—they gutted MTSU and cracked 5 YPC against Miami—but a 3.0 YPC performance against Iowa State is less than encouraging.

If Uche is on the field it's imperative to keep him away from Tristan Wirfs, a giant of a man headed for the top ten in the NFL draft; he is a road grader. But the rest of the line, even if Alaric Jackson is back, is wobbly. Seth:

Either ISU's interior line is really good, or Michigan's lucky that our worst DT situation in a minute is catching the Ferentzians at an even rarer interior OL ebb. If they were having trouble in just this game I'd say it was the weather, but the subtle shift in offensive approach from what they've been since—yeesh…is it 2000?—to this more downhill, shotgun passing thing seems to be a personnel issue. They do rave about the redshirt freshman center, so the most likely explanation is this will sort itself out once that guy is no longer a 280 lb redshirt freshman.

Here is a spot where Kemp's Army experience might actually do some good. In all-zone-all-the-time offenses the ability to slip between cracks and penetrate to allow your linebackers to rally is useful, and he spent a lot of time dodging cuts and doing that against the Black Knights.

The main back is Mekhi Sargeant, who's crafty and good with his cuts but doesn't have a ton of open-field ability.

I mean, he's not bad. But he's not Akrum Wadley. He averaged 4.7 YPC last year; so did #2 Toren Young. Young is a bit bigger and more of a thumper but is broadly similar to Sargeant.

Iowa will throw some wrinkles in but you know what to expect: all zone, all the time, both inside and outside. In the Wirfs era a lot of productive Iowa runs go behind him as he thunders DEs downfield even on stretch plays; if one of Paye or Hutchinson is going to step up to an All Big Ten level performer this will be the game where it becomes clear. Early returns indicate this probably isn't the case, but at least they're 280.

If Michigan can't at least slow this run game down it's going to be a long season. Longer season.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN DTs vs NOT THE WISCONSIN GAME PLEASE. Self explanatory. Dwumfour is a huge swing factor.

Pass Defense vs Iowa

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Smith-Marsette has a hyphen so he's good

Quarterback Nate Stanley continues one of college football's most inexplicable traditions: NFL draftniks projecting a nondescript Big Ten West quarterback as a first-rounder, much to the disbelief of even that team's fans. First and least explicably it was Minnesota's Mitch Leidner. Then it was Clayton Thorson. This year it's Stanley, who Todd McShay projected as one of just two first-round QBs in the 2020 draft.

Stanley is fine. He's not a cube of meat that can't throw like Leidner, and his ACLs work, unlike Thorson. He's coming off a sophomore year in which he completed 56% of his passes for 6.9 YPA and a junior year in which he completed 59% of his passes for 7.2 YPA. He is a solid Big Ten West quarterback, doing Big Ten West things:

HenneChart:

Iowa vs Iowa St Good   Neutral   Bad   Ovr
Quarterback DO CA SCR   PR MA   BA TA IN BR   DSR PFF
Nate Stanley 5+ 10(3) 2   2 1   1 4 10xxx 1   52% 68.9

Pro Football Focus spent much of August explaining "it's the inaccuracy" to livid Iowa fans after PFF ranked Stanley 51st among FBS QBs, one spot behind WMU's Jon Wassink. As of a week ago he was still in the 60s (adequate), fifth on a list of Big Ten quarterbacks that, if it wasn't obvious already, proves the universe has something against you personally.

He alternates darts that perk up the draftniks with turfed slants, for no apparent reason.

The Iowa receiving corps is down two first-round tight ends and has turned to that other staple of Iowa receiving: the hyphenated WR. Ihmir Smith-Marsette leads Iowa receivers with 254 yards on 15 catches, operating as a willowy, speedy Jehu Chesson. Brandon Smith is the burly jump ball specialist; two freshman slots round out the guys who see significant targets. You'll note Oliver Martin doesn't make that list, which is a surprise to me, your local Oliver Martin stan. He has five catches for 28 yards.

Note that the tight ends are nowhere near the threat they were a year ago. Nate Weiting and Shaun Beyer have six catches between them; Weiting in particular is very much a converted fullback in the pass game. The running backs are frequent checkdown options, because Iowa.

Iowa entered the year with two NFL-bound bookend tackles but lost Alaric Jackson in week two. Jackson dressed but did not play against Middle Tennessee. He will return "in some capacity" this weekend. What that means is anyone's guess; I'd imagine he starts if he's anywhere near 100%. In his absence giant mauler Tristan Wirfs has slid over to left tackle and has continued to climb NFL draft boards as the rare left tackle who can both protect the edge and crunch people on the ground.

This will be an acid test for Josh Uche. The status of Mike Dwumfour—who will get pointed at Iowa's much weaker interior—and Michigan's ability to scheme up Bush-like blitz attacks from Cam McGrone will also be priorities as Michigan seeks to prevent Stanley from getting comfortable. They've got a solid shot; Iowa's given up six sacks against mostly mugs, and has a wee running back who's prone to get run over.

KEY MATCHUP: UCHE vs FIRST ROUND TACKLE. Uche can absolutely get 3-5 pass rush wins that end Iowa drives and put himself on NFL radars.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Aussie drifter Michael Sleep-Dalton wandered in from an AFL field and is belting his punts 45.4 yards a pop. Opponents have only returned 3 of his 13 attempts, those for just 3 yards each. The potential for Golden Godhood is real. Kicker Keith Duncan is new; he's hit 10 of 11 attempts on the season.

Nico Ragani, one of those freshman slots, has 5 punt returns for 42 yards. Smith-Marsette returns as the KO guy and it should be noted that he had a number of long-ish returns last year. His average of 29 yards a pop was the best number in the country for anyone who didn't bring one back all the way and fourth overall. Michigan has the luxury of pop-up fair catch kickoffs and the like; in this game it would be advisable to fire them as far into the endzone as you can manage.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

You know what? No cat picture for Iowa. If you were enraged when Paul Chryst punted from the plus-36 on fourth and four after going balls-to-the-wall against Michigan, well, at least you're used to it. Kirk Ferentz puts on a display of analytics acumen unmatched by man nor beast whenever he plays Michigan, and then next week he punts on fourth and one from the plus-39.

Accept it. Loathe it. Bathe in it. Here's a cat anyway.

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

  • There are no QB keeps.
  • Mirror Kirk Ferentz is ruthless when Michigan's iffy DTs are stuck in fourth and short.
  • Michigan doesn't have an Epenesa plan.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

  • Uche is getting pass rush Ws against Iowa tackles.
  • Epenesa is contained and everyone else is stuffed in a box.
  • Healthy Dwumfour is a revelation.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 7 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Oh No, We Suck Again, +1 for Evil Kirk, +1 for BPONE, +1 for Ye Gods That Line Is Getting Hammered, –1 for Road Iowa, –1 for Still Favored!, –1 for Okay This Time We'll Put The Real Offense Out, +1 for But Will We?)

Desperate need to win level: 6 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Can We Go To Shreveport? Let's Not, +1 for Smart Ferentz Is Infuriating, +1 for Oliver Martin Irritation, –1 for I Don't Even Mind When Iowa People Are Happy, –1 for Acceptance Stage, –1 for You Know When You Think About It In 100 Years No One Will Remember Any Of This, +1 for BUT I WILL)

Loss will cause me to… write a buddy cop comedy starring Zavier Simpson and Jon Teske as hilariously mismatched partners.

Win will cause me to… the same except there isn't a mass suicide 30 pages in.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Much is unproven for both sides after Iowa survived El Assico despite a big yardage deficit and Michigan did… some things… earlier. Signs point a slog for both sides unless Michigan's defensive tackles just get shredded by a team that knows how to run a bunch of zone. I don't think that'll happen because Iowa's ground game is far less diverse than Wisconsin's and also just less good, in general. Also Stanley's going to put some passes in the ground.

When Michigan has the ball it's all about QB pressure, which causes Patterson to melt. That means Epenesa and blitz pickups. I'm relatively sanguine about the pickups with Wilson back and Charbonnet presumably getting healthier; Epenesa should need a bunch of TE chips and even then his bull rush could get work done. But when you're relying on just one guy to get there that's a tough order. Max pro and if worst comes to worst just punting up some deep shots at Collins could get some work done.

On the ground: can Michigan involve the QB? If not, forget it. Will they? You have to think they'll try, but if it's a read do we have any confidence Patterson can execute it at this point?

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • M continues with a basic offense that regularly tries fades because it's one of their best options. It continues to be one of their best options.
  • Yes, Virginia, Michigan has various QB keeps and they are the difference. Or they don't and Michigan is relying on punts downfield to rescue them.
  • Michigan, 23-22.

Comments

N. Campus Tech

October 4th, 2019 at 2:50 PM ^

If we can get through the first M offensive possession without fumbling the ball away, we will win 35-14. If we fumble, we lose 14-13.

Either way, Iowa scores a touchdown on the last possession of the game to get to 14.

MGoBlue96

October 4th, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^

Shouldn't the desperate need to win level be a 10 for any Big Ten game the rest of the season? One more Big Ten loss essentially eliminates them from any contention. I know most have already given up on the season, but the goal for the team is still to win the Big Ten no matter how slim those hopes look right now.

Hotel Putingrad

October 4th, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^

Riddle me this, Batman:

How does one lose QB keeps from one season to the next?

They used them regularly from Wisconsin on last year, but now all of a sudden, Shea doesn't remember how to?

Hmm....

MGoBlue96

October 4th, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^

Big difference between aren't a big emphasis and won't even keep on plays that are obvious keeps though. Also DCaff did keep some against Wisky so it is in the playbook. They are going to have to show it at some point with Patterson if they want the running game to become more competent.

Carpetbagger

October 4th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^

Well, if you remember, it was in the offense long before Wisconsin, but we only saw it when McCaffrey was in. I could be wrong, but wasn't Wisconsin the game after McCaffrey ran 70 yards for a score (that was called back) and some folks (not me) started commenting that McCaffrey may be better than Patterson?

We have only seen it from Patterson this year early on at MTSU, before the hit just before the half; and after Patterson got pulled for McCaffrey at Wisconsin and came back when McCaffrey got hurt on a keep.

I think I know why, but your opinion is worth as much as mine in this case. No one knows except Patterson.

 

You Only Live Twice

October 4th, 2019 at 3:05 PM ^

OM ..G... one point

EDIT:  OK so last week he picked us to win by 3 TDs.  Soi let's change this to Michigan by 24.

maize-blue

October 4th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^

So if that cop movie was produced by Hollywood who would the actors be?

I think Kevin Hart and Brad Garrett would be an odd couple.

Biggip

October 4th, 2019 at 3:12 PM ^

But "is Michigan meaningfully better than Iowa State?" is a question you can ask with a straight face, so damn near anything could happen.

 

This sentence is being written in year 5 of the grand Harbaugh experiment.

Yeesh

ijohnb

October 4th, 2019 at 3:36 PM ^

I'm with you.  I personally went through all of this after Wisconsin.  It went from "no way this isn't going to work" to "shit it really does not look like this is working" but now it just is what it is.  Not going to spend the rest of the season saying "OK maybe we won but should we really feel good about this win in YEAR 5?"

Harbaugh may still get done what we hoped he would, or he may be in the waning years of a disappointing tenure.

Either way, Beat Iowa.

bronxblue

October 4th, 2019 at 3:51 PM ^

I do enjoy the beginning of the year when a new batch of "UNACCEPTABLE" posters show up to complain for a couple of months and then fade away when (a) it becomes tiring to be so relentlessly negative (b) they are proven wrong and the team succeeds, or (c) they call everyone "sheeple" or whatever and then stop posting until basketball season and the team loses a game. 

Champeen

October 4th, 2019 at 3:12 PM ^

As i stated before, Michigan by a lot.  Will win comfortably by double digits.  And as i stated directly after the whooping at the hands of the Badgers, we will be 5-1 ranked 15th heading to PSU for a night game.

THAT will be the turning point of the season, one way or the other.

 

huntmich

October 4th, 2019 at 3:13 PM ^

I really hope we win, and convincingly, so I can start caring about the season again. I haven't been this detached from Michigan football this early in the season in the Harbaugh era, not even 2017. It sucks.

Biggip

October 4th, 2019 at 3:44 PM ^

It's a weird feeling to wake up on a Saturday and not race to the TV and watch every single second of football all day.  Growing up I would consume as much college football as my little brain could handle and I lived for UM football games.  Those glorious 12 weekends a year were the best! 

Now, I am not trying as hard to plan around games and not finding as much joy with the sport as I did before.  I guess I can't convey my exact feelings but melancholy feels too big and bummed feels too small.  Somewhere in between there.

A win would make me excited and like you said, hopefully, make me care again.  I am tired of being an old curmudgeon about Harbaugh, but he just makes it so difficult.