Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Army
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	Michigan –22
TELEVISION	FOX
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	70ish, partly cloudy 10 mph wind

Overview

First you schedule a service academy. Then the year before you play the service academy they make some guy's shoes famous by taking Oklahoma to overtime. They also go 11-2 on the season, capping that with a 70-14 win—not a typo—over Houston in their bowl game. Hooray for scheduling service academies.

It probably isn't as bad as all that. Army just played a dead-even game with Rice, which was 2-10 last year with wins over Prairie View A&M and Old Dominion. Many advanced stats think Army's been more lucky than good. And it's hard to see them keeping up with Michigan's skill guys.

The problem is that one wobble here and there could rob Michigan of a possession in a game that won't have many, and if it happens again… well, we've been there. It'll probably be fine. It'll definitely be a slog.

[Hit THE JUMP for Oh No, They Figured Out Math]

Run Offense vs Army

Cole Christiansen is the captain and MLB

Service academy: Army is small and tries to make up for it by blitzing a lot. Not quite as much as MTSU did, but a lot. Seth charted them sending an average of 4.8 guys. Their goal is naturally to prevent the thing their offense is designed to do. They want to get an unexpected guy in the backfield and put you in a passing down.

Relevant results from last year are close to nonexistent. Oklahoma ripped Army for 7.6 YPC; Duke was at 5.3. No other team on Army's schedule is at all comparable, and even the two power five teams aren't very. Still, it's hard to see this being anything other than a paving. Seth:

The defensive tackles aren't supposed to do much but they got pushed around by Rice's poor man's Stanfordians. The nose guard, Rod Stoddard, was part of last year's rotation and is a poor man's Carlo Kemp: small, low, feisty at times, but no pass rush. They get little from Kwabena Bonsu as well. Jacob Covington is a converted linebacker with active hands who plays an Anchor-like role and gets talked about like a dangerman, but I removed his tentative star about halfway through this film.

Although it sounds like Army's running a defense that Michigan should really explore:

Take a 3-4, replace your DTs with 4-3 DEs who set up on the OTs' inside shoulders, turn your strongside OLB into third safety, shove your weakside OLB a bit further toward the DE side of the LB/DE spectrum (think Uche), and push your MLB out to where he has to deal with tight ends more often than guards.

The "404" refers to how the defensive line sets up, counting shoulders from the ball (1. center's shoulder, 2. guard's inside shoulder, etc.). The fours are the inside shoulders of the offensive tackles. Zero is head up on the center. That gives them some protection against off-tackle runs like Inside Zone that modern spread offenses, used to dealing with 4-2-5 and 2-4-5 nickels, leave in the hands of exploitable WLBs.

This is not really germane to the game. I'm just sayin', though.

Michigan's first game under Josh Gattis had 14 quarterback runs and just 20 from the main RB platoon; Army is unlikely to have problems like MTSU did when it comes to option football of any variety. Work should shift towards the backs. It'll be up to Michigan's blockers to figure out where the extra guy or guys is coming from, and then it'll be up to Turner and Charbonnet to make the most of what should be several opportunities to break a long one against a charging safety. Early returns for both are good.

KEY MATCHUP: RUIZ and FRIENDS vs BLITZ PICKUPS. Especially off the corner—Army's boundary guy had 7.5 TFLs last year. Michigan did extremely well with this against MTSU—just one guy direct to the backfield with no one attempting to block him—and will have an opportunity to establish "Michigan picks up blitzes" as a real thing.

Pass Offense vs Army

Elijah Riley comes off the corner a lot

So it's about volume. Army was extremely average in all of the SP+ metrics a year ago but the amount of data there is very thin and probably 0% relevant to what they're up against tomorrow. Army's schedule included the other two service academies, Liberty, a couple of FCS teams, Buffalo, EMU, etc. It's a collection of the very worst passing offenses in college football last year. Rice only added to this collection of meatballs last week.

When the P5 rolled in:

• vs Duke: 13/17, 197 yards, 1 sack, 10.6 YPA.
• vs Oklahoma: 11/15, 165 yards, 1 INT, 1 sack, 9.8 YPA.

10 yards an attempt is the standard but Army made it impossible for either QB to get to a mere 20 attempts. Houston got to 32 with their innovative defensive approach—"they can't grind us down if we let them score in three plays"—and their backup QB had 7.2 YPA in the whirling maelstrom of suck that was the tail end of the Major Applewhite regime.

Army plays off a lot, as you'd expect; they are willing to give up underneath stuff frequently; they are going to alternate bend plays where they're hoping you make a mistake with five-and-six man fire zone blitzes. I mean, probably: new defensive coordinator. If they stick with their approach from last year Patterson is going to have to be cautious about deciding what he wants to do pre-snap. Kyler Murray threw an interception of consequence last year when press coverage turned into a bail zone and Murray just tossed a post like the defensive back was his WR:

Army survives on disguise and a big playbook.

If Michigan is going to have the kind of offense we expect and need them to have this year they should be able to run McKeon down the seam again and get Collins to the endzone and etc., etc. The blitz pickups that were a key in the previous section and such a strength against MTSU will be called into action frequently once again. If Charbonnet can replicate his performance, Michigan will profit and the weird Michigan hype train where we get pumped about pass protection will be at full throttle.

KEY MATCHUP: SHEA PATTERSON vs SLAM DUNKS. Army's going to blitz. Michigan's going to pick it up a lot. On some of these events Michigan will be running three or four guys deep, and some of these guys are going to be wide open. Patterson was excellent at converting these opportunities in week one.

Run Defense vs Army

gird thyselves

Welp, it's a service academy triple option. Previous editions of service academy triple option covered by this blog include "Well, It's A Good Thing That Guy Fell Down For No Reason" and "Well, It's A Good Thing They Stopped Doing That Thing That Worked For No Reason." These were games against Air Force that ended 31-25 and 29-13 and felt pretty dang bad for the duration.

Army comes in with a system that's different in the details but identical once you zoom out a bit: a bunch of little guys cut blocking everything and tweaking their option approach in the hopes of thunking whatever system you bring to the table. There's a very Bane vibe: you adopted the triple option because it was the fave-rave. Army was born in it.

The grossest and most diabolically sensible thing about the Black Knights is their approach to fourth downs. They're going for them if they're even half-reasonable, and given their offensive system, well…

Last season, Army led the nation in fourth-down conversion rate at 86.1 percent. The Black Knights attempted 36 conversions, fourth-most in the nation, and were significantly more successful than any of the teams that attempted more. Army also led the nation in third-down conversion rate, at 57.1 percent.

…this makes my skin crawl just thinking about it. Against Oklahoma last year, Army had drives of 16, 16, 19, and 17 plays. Oklahoma had seven possessions in regulation. This is a different beast than Air Force, which is willing to trade some downs for the possibility of explosive plays. Army wants to beat your head in three yards at a time. The Black Knights finished 130th—dead last—in explosiveness last year. They compensated by being #1 in stuff rate allowed (ie, they always get some yards), which led to the #1 third down distance to go and the numbers in the block quote above.

Army OC Brent Davis:

“There are many times where we’re trying to get seven yards in three plays, instead of 10. Getting seven yards on three plays a lot easier than getting 10. Even just that the thought process is easier. There’s less pressure.”

Ugh.

Army's approach led to one of the starkest gaps between SP+, a play-based metric that prizes explosiveness, and FEI, a drive-based metric that cares not one whit how your drive got the result it did, that I've seen. SP+ thinks Army is a paper tiger, ranking them 84th nationally after their 11-2 season with the #65 O and the #70 D. FEI thought Army had the 9th-best offense in the country and was the #17 team.

The truth is probably somewhere in between. SP+ is not adequately prepared to handle an offense that is able to grind out first downs against damn near anyone but cannot score quickly unless Houston is falling apart at the seams. FEI feels like it has some major SOS problems, and, you know, just general problems. It ranked 7-5 Mississippi State 4th overall last year.

Michigan's approach here is unpredictable. They used Hudson as a sort of sideline to sideline pitch guy LB/S against Air Force two years ago, but not all triple options are built the same and Michigan's personnel is pretty different. Also they hired Georgia Tech's DC as an analyst this year and may be letting him influence their approach. So they could come out in a lot of different things that will be relevant for this game and this game only. This preview's preview of this: good luck!

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN DT vs CUT BLOCKS. The easiest way for Army to have one of their marathon marches is to give it to the A-back a ton and get 3 yards because Michigan DTs are on the ground.

Pass Defense vs Army

Kelvin Hopkins Jr does throw a little

Service academy triple option attacks come paired with limited but potentially devastating passing games. Hopkins averaged just over 7 attempts per game last year. These generally went well, with 11 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 162. Army finished 3rd in passing SP+. Everything goes to hell once they get stuck in a passing down, where they ranked 110th.

Army will have 6-8 play action dropbacks where they hope to get a defender in a run-pass conflict and hit a big play; if and when they get forced into a conventional throw Michigan will likely clobber it.

KEY MATCHUP: DEFENSIVE STRUCTURE vs WHAT HAPPENED TO JORDAN KOVACS IN 2012. Air Force ran their flexback directly at him early in the game, consistently blocking him on outside pitches that gained chunks. When Kovacs started reading this and shooting past the flexback, Air Force hit him on wide open play action that would have been a sphincter-tightening touchdown if the back hadn't fallen down for no reason. Michigan did a better job of preventing such occurences in 2017; that needs to continue.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker is a virtual unknown for Army. Freshman Cole Talley kicked the two extra points against Rice and also hit the three kickoffs; he appears to be the guy. Your guess is as good as any.

Punter Zach Potter had 10 punts a year ago as he split time/lost his job to Nick Schrage. Schrage has graduated, leaving Potter and his 31 yard average. Potter was much better against Rice, hitting 4 punts for a 44-yard average. Potter's variable because he (probably?) is a rugby punter dependent on rolls and susceptible to shanks. His compatriot last year was (probably) as well; only 7 Army punts got returned last year.

Army return units did very little last year.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Army goes on an 18-play touchdown drive that lasts 10 minutes.
• Also they do that a second time.
• Army blitzes are getting guys through untouched.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• There's a passing down.
• Nico Collins is going for a jump ball against a guy who can drive a tank but is also 5'9".
• Patterson's issues from week one were more first-game transition costs than permanent.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Triple Option Is A Leveler, +1 for Oh God The Fourth Downs, +1 for Oh God This Game Is Going To Be Seven Possessions Long, –1 for Athletes, We Have Them, –1 for Recent Competitive Game Against Rice, –1 for Don Brown's Seen This Rodeo Before, –1 for All The Blitz Pickups, –1 for I Mean The Spread Is That Big For A Reason)

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Three Touchdown Spread, +1 for The Why Did We Schedule This Game Cries Will Deafen The Faithful, +1 for Opportunity To Level All-Time Series Against The Only Team That's Played Michigan A Fair Amount And Has A Winning Record, +1 for Look Man I Just Don't Want To Deal With The Fallout, +1 for And Right Before A Bye Week, –1 for At Least We'd Probably Stop Doing This?)

Loss will cause me to… re-enact the first half of Full Metal Jacket. Or at least watch it.

Win will cause me to… mutter about how useless this was for Michigan's larger goals.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Ugh. Ugh, ugh, ugh. If Michigan's offense recovers from the sloppiness that plagued them against MTSU they should score most times they have the ball. If drops and bad QB decisions and fumbles end drives early and lock Michigan's iffy DTs on the field for long periods of time, things will get hairy.

The median outcome is some dorfs that lock Michigan in a football game for a half and Michigan pulling away because they can literally pull away from the Army defense with their fleet of giant fast guys.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Charbonnet and Turner both go over 100 yards.
• Collins mosses a guy.
• Michigan, 32-13