[Patrick Barron]

Preview: 2022 Big Ten Championship Comment Count

Brian December 2nd, 2022 at 2:40 PM

Essentials

WHAT #2 Michigan (12-0) vs Purdue (8-4)  

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WHERE TicketIQ Stadium

Indianapolis, IN
WHEN 8:17 Eastern
THE LINE M –16.5
TELEVISION FOX (Johnson/Klatt)
TICKETS From $48.
WEATHER

nope

Overview

First off: Aidan O'Connell's brother died this week. So did Patrick Barron's brother. Please keep them in your thoughts.

Well hey it's the Big Ten Championship Game again. This time Michigan draws Purdue after the West division went 100% ACC Coastal. First it was Illinois's to lose; they lost it. Then it was Iowa's; they lost it. Purdue managed to not blow it against Indiana and now shows up for the traditional ritual execution at 8-4 and unranked.

Purdue embarked on an almost nonstop parade of nailbiters this season. Seven of their twelve games were one-score affairs, and while you could say "hey, they almost beat Penn State" that comes with a "hey, they almost lost to FAU" response. The scariest Purdue thing may be their opponent invariance. What can you expect of of a Purdue game? I have no idea. Iowa dunked them into the center of the earth—24-3 is the OSU equivalent of beating a team one billion to ten—but also they beat Illinois by a touchdown. Illinois came closer than anyone else in the Big Ten to beating Michigan—they were 20 points closer than The Ohio State University.

So… I mean… this team is weird and I do not entirely discount the Spoilermakers thing.

[After THE JUMP: It's Purdue.]

Run Offense vs Purdue

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[Barron]

Blake Corum is definitely out and Donovan Edwards is likely to be limited with a hand injury again. That injury did not prevent Edwards from taking over the large bulk of the load against the Buckeyes and it's likely he's your #1; I would expect that CJ Stokes gets more run than he did against OSU, because Michigan now knows they need a second back for the rest of the season.

Purdue's run defense is one of the more statistically bizarre ones I've looked at this season. They gave up 245 yards at almost 6 a pop to Indiana's moribund unit; they also held Chase Brown to 4.3 yards an attempt and crushed (an admittedly Mo-Ibrahim-deprived) Minnesota. You might look at that and think that's a style of play thing, but Purdue gave up 6.1 YPC and 5.3 YPC to Wisconsin and Iowa, two moribund under-center rushing offenses. There's not a whole lot of consistency in any of the numbers.

Well, let's see what Alex thinks!

In my nearly two full seasons charting college teams, I have yet to encounter a unit as "meh" as the Purdue defense.

Ah, well then. How about a philosophical overview?

Coverage: Purdue runs Cover 2 a majority of the time, rocking the zone category on most all of their plays. It's a very soft and rather porous zone … This is one of those teams where it's more about your QB reading the defense and picking his spots than receivers beating DBs, though Purdue's Cov2 is not as tight of a ship or as difficult as Iowa.

Pressure: Purdue rushed more than four players on 14.5% of snaps, one of the lower blitz numbers that I've recorded this season.

The exact opposite of last week's approach, then. This makes sense for a unit that's generally undermanned and doesn't have that One Weird NFL DE Purdue frequently, inexplicably possesses.

Advanced stats have a tough time with Big Ten West outfits this year because of the outlandishly bad state of West offenses but on a down-to-down basis it looks like Purdue will be able to compete with a Corum-less Michigan offense. Purdue plays it pretty soft but keeps things held down; they're 29th in standard down line yards but 80th in stuff rate. This is an especially bad spot to lose a guy like Corum who churns out the yards that take your three-yard gains to five and completely blow up the sustainability of your defensive approach, as Iowa found out earlier this year. Edwards, while decently capable of churning out YAC, is more of a home run hitter.

On the other hand, it might not matter. Teams that lay back and survive against normal teams have eaten piles of garbage against Michigan's punishing inside zone and it looks like Purdue is in for the same treatment:

Michigan has relied on Duo and the prodigious strength of Zinter and Oluwatimi to eviscerate DTs and pave the path for the rushing game all season long, and I saw nothing from this game to suggest that this batch of tackles for Purdue will be able to hold up any better than that of the average team. When they played Illinois, the Illini had rushing wins that look repeatable for Michigan:

This isn't Nebraska, which just did not have the DTs to hold up no matter what they did. Purdue may be able to get some things done if they depart from their season-long approach and manage a much more aggressive front, but the chances of that happening without major dam breaks here and there are slim.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN INTERIOR OL vs JUST SOME GUYS. It'll be up to them more than the backs to keep up the steady drumbeat that's paced the Michigan offense this year.

Pass Offense vs Purdue

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[Barron]

Here's where the aforementioned Big Ten West offensive mire really kicks in. On the face of it Purdue has a decent pass defense per fancystats, one that's in the 30s in EPA/play allowed and success rate allowed. It is probably much, much worse than that. They gave up 7.3 yards per pass this season, which is in front of only MSU and Indiana. In their defense their crossover games included Maryland and Penn State, and they did get Tanner Morgan and Casey Thompson instead of 404 Backup QB Not Found when they played Minnesota and Nebraska.

But:

  Att Cmp % Yards YPA TD INT
@ Wisconsin 21 13 61.9 203 9.7 2 0
Iowa 23 13 56.5 192 8.3 2 0

Graham Mertz and Spencer Petras did that. Purdue plays their soft cover two and doesn't blitz and they still get torched over the top way too much. They're 12th at giving up 40-yard passes, in front of only Indiana and Ohio State, and tied for 12th at 30+ yard passes, tied with Ohio State. They're 13th at 20+ yard passes. You get the idea: this team gives up huge chunks, over and over again. Per Alex, PFF's coverage grades have them 91st nationally.

Alex:

They don't have great athletes and right now they aren't well-drilled enough to get it right all the time.

This was most ruthlessly exploited by Trey Palmer in the Nebraska game:

There will be opportunities for Johnson and Wilson to get behind the Purdue defense. They won't be as open as they were against OSU but one false step and the Purdue safeties will get beat over the top.

Purdue's pass rush is okay overall—#50 sack rate—but has one of those big splits between standard downs and passing downs. That's odd since Purdue doesn't blitz much but for whatever reason they're much less likely to get after the QB on early downs. Alex did not see anyone of particular note on the DL but they do get decent pressure from all over:

The pass rush is fine. There's no one that I think is a terror as an EDGE rusher and they don't blitz a ton so it's not something to watch out for directly. Still, they get different guys to chip in depending on the week.

Against a D that wants to drop into zone and doesn't get a ton of pressure, JJ McCarthy will be asked to replicate his early-season steadiness underneath more than repeat last week's deep shots. He seems up to the task of avoiding the big mistakes that it'll take for Purdue to stay in contact.

KEY MATCHUP: JJ MCCARTHY vs KEEPING IT GOING. Not that a deep shot or two would hurt. Keeping that arc on it and allowing guys to make plays on the ball would be a nice thing to see continue.

Run Defense vs Purdue

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[Barron]

Purdue has notoriously failed to run the ball at all for decades, and it looked like that was unlikely to change in the season opener, when Purdue had Penn State on the ropes but repeatedly failed to execute four-minute drives and eventually gave Sean Clifford enough cracks at a game-winner that he took the opportunity. End of game: 61 rushing yards on a mere 22 attempts—again, in a game Purdue had multiple opportunities to close out. Same Old Purdue.

Well, enter a walk-on freshman. That's an unconventional way to solve a problem, but it worked for the Boilers. Devin Mockobee emerged from the dusty depths to become Purdue's leading rusher; he's putting up 5.2 yards a pop and has produced decently well even against the Big Ten West's tougher units. This has given the Boilermakers a semblance of balance and has helped them do what they could not do against Penn State: win one-score games. Alex on Mockobee:

The unheralded walk-on wasn't just the lead back for Purdue: I felt he had legit talent. Mockobee is not given a ton of help from his offensive line (see below), so he provides an adequate ground game mostly all on his own. This run stood out to me, with Mockobee creating the first down all on his own, powering through contact:

Mockobee is forced to bounce his runs an awful lot and though he's not a burner, he can pull some moves in space. … There is some lacking athleticism, but in terms of a nose for running with the football in his hand, Mockobee has it. You can't teach natural football IQ or heart and Mockobee is chock full of those attributes.

You might see the phrase "forced to bounce his runs an awful lot" and draw some conclusion from that; those would be correct. Purdue's line stats dip into triple digits in a couple of categories and are barely out of them when it comes to line yards themselves, where the Boilers are 98th. (They are about 40 slots better than OSU at power success rate, if you need yet another commentary on where the OSU offense is right now.) Purdue's line is built for pass blocking and doesn't have the kind of mutants OSU can field, so push against the likes of Mazi Smith and Kris Jenkins is likely to be rare. That is especially true since Purdue has lost its starting center for the season.

Meanwhile Mockobee's a walk-on for a reason and you can see it in Purdue's lack of explosion on the ground. They're middle of the pack in the Big Ten when it comes to ripping off a ten yard run but drop to dead last in runs of 20+. They would be dead last in 30+ yard runs too if Northwestern hadn't managed to put up zero.

I assume that Michigan's gameplan against Purdue will be similar to their OSU one since both teams have one extremely dangerous wide receiver and don't focus on the ground game, so this will be another game of light boxes that may give Mockobee some opportunity to succeed as Michigan LBs read it out instead of tearing at the LOS. Mockobee had a decent day against Illinois (28 carries, 106 yards) and we know they are both legit and aggressive. I would not expect a total blowout here; neither would I expect Mockobee to be particularly efficient.

KEY MATCHUP: DEFENSIVE TACKLES vs MMM MORE DOUBLE TEAMS. Michigan's been content to expose their DTs to doubles and live with the results. If Purdue's OL can't do what OSU or Illinois did—and it's fairly likely that's the case—then things get a little grim for them.

Pass Defense vs Purdue

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[Barron]

Purdue is sort of like Rutgers basketball in that you can say "it's Purdue" and you know what to expect. In Purdue's case that means the same old dink and dunk, basketball-on-grass approach that Joe Tiller installed in the 90s. QB Aidan O'Connell leads the Big Ten in pass attempts, averaging 41 a game, and he's firing out the 6.9 yards per attempt (nice) that seems to be the destination of every Purdue QB since the dawn of time.

O'Connell graded out in the same range as Peyton Thorne or Sean Clifford when Alex charted him. That means a fair number of dimes, a lot of decent balls, and enough accuracy issues to prevent him from being a serious NFL prospect. I mean:

Talent isn’t what O’Connell uses to win.

That scouting report proceeds to note various ways in which his high level of execution makes him interesting, and that is some level of talent. But he's a workhorse more than a star. He lacks mobility and doesn't throw well off-platform; his arm is just okay. He's a system guy who will gut you if you can't consistently cover his first couple reads but when things break down the down is just over.

This year O'Connell's main accomplice is former high school teammate Charlie "Chuck Sizzle" Jones, who transferred from Iowa and proceeded to put up more catches and yards than than every single Hawkeye who didn't get raptured up by the portal combined. This was not close. Jones out-gained the Iowa wide receiver corps by almost 500 yards. (It is perhaps no coincidence that Arland Bruce and Keagan Johnson both booked it for the portal even after Cade McNamara committed to them.) Jones is legit:

He's popped up on draft radars, where he profiles as an NFL possession guy:

competitive demeanor and run-after-catch ability make him a major threat in the middle of the field.… savvy, natural pass-catcher with reliable hands and very good focus. Snatches the ball out of the air and shows the concentration to make acrobatic catches look easy.…tracks the ball well downfield and consistently runs under long throws.… lacks the elite top-end speed or acceleration to be a field stretcher.…. lacks the twitch to create consistent separation, and despite his size and ability to track the ball downfield, he isn’t great on contested catches.

There's a steep dropoff from Jones to the rest of the wide receiver corps. TE Payne Durham is the next-most popular target. Alex asserted his receiving ability is "high-end", but not in a blaze-it-down-the-seam way:

With Durham you're less concerned about him burning down the seam as you are him posting up an undersized LB like Michael Barrett and making catch after catch for 5-8 yards a pop. Durham is not the world's best blocker and he got a half-star on our diagram as a result, but as a receiver, he's the only other player on the field for the Boilermakers (besides Jones) who requires consistent attention from Michigan's gameplan.

The rest of Purdue's options can be filed under Guys Who Are Just Guys.

The OL holds up pretty well in pass protection, and while you'd usually assert that the nature of the Purdue offense helps out a lot the Boilers have a top ten sack rate allowed on passing downs—impressive, especially since their QB isn't mobile. They're 22nd overall. Purdue also lacks explosion here, albeit not as badly as they do on the ground. They half about half the clip of 30 yard passes as OSU and their EPA per play is considerably worse than their success rate.

Dinkity doo, etc.

KEY MATCHUP: CHUCK SIZZLE vs WHATEVER COVERAGES MICHIGAN USED AGAINST MARVIN HARRISON. Just plug in a similar gameplan and see how it goes.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is not an area of strength for Purdue, which checks in 98th in the FEIST rankings and a whopping 121st in SP+. This is largely because their field goal kicking has been shaky. Mitchell Fineran is just 2/7 on field goals of 40+ yards and has a long of 43 on the year. Last year he only attempted two from 40+, so this looks like a clear limitation. Expect Purdue to go for it in areas where other teams would kick.

Meanwhile punter Jack Ansell has the second-worst net average in the league at 37.4. I'm not exactly sure how this adds up to the #47 punting unit per FEI's reckoning, because Ansell's five touchbacks against 12 boots inside the 20 does not point to some sort of secret pooch miracle-worker. Opponents have returned 18 of his 42 non-touchbacks and while these haven't gone much of anywhere yet, this could be a spot for AJ Henning to bust one.

Charlie Jones returns punts but hasn't done much of anything; various Purdue kick returners have also failed to make an impact. Kickoff specialist Chris Van Eekeren is only getting about half of his attempts into the endzone, so project Do Something Interesting On A Kickoff Even Once will get some at-bats.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING THE BEST

INTANGIBLES

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CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

  • Michigan experiences a massive post-OSU hangover.
  • Purdue is better able to decipher Michigan coverages after the playbook got dumped out.
  • The deep ball passing is ephemeral because Purdue has someone vaguely in the area.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

  • Michigan is able to move O'Connell off his spot consistently.
  • Mazi Smith gets a sack and the Michigan State internet implodes, leaving nothing but a single "whatabout" carved on a tree.
  • A highlight reel of The Game is deployed.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline: 5;  +1 for Look What They Did To My Back, +1 for Hey They're Kind Of Like Ohio State, –1 for Oh Right That Happened, +1 for But They Won't Run An Insane Defense, –1 for You've Won The Big Ten West, Congratulations On Your Sort-Of Accomplishment, –1 for Common Opponents Indicate Blowout Unless They Can Illinois It Which They Patently Cannot, –1 for )

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline: 5; +5 Big Ten Title On The Line, –1 for But They're In The Playoff Either Way)

Loss will cause me to… we're not beating Georgia.

Win will cause me to… we're so beating Georgia.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Purdue is Not Good in a way that is highly unusual for a championship participant:

At 8-4 and 47th in SP+, Purdue is one of the worst teams to ever reach a power conference championship game.

Meanwhile Michigan is pretty good even without Blake Corum. It would take a flood of adverse events for this to be a game, and since Purdue is not an offense that does explosion very much that largely boils down to turnovers and Michigan kicking five field goals. That is possible… distantly possible.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:

  • CJ Stokes gets 15 carries and looks much better than he did against OSU, nearing 100 yards.
  • This is the week for Andrel Anthony. It's gonna happen.
  • Jones ends up with more receiving yards than Marvin Harrison but it takes a bucket of targets to get there.
  • Michigan, 45-23

Comments

leidlein

December 2nd, 2022 at 2:55 PM ^

Tickets from $48? You might consider updating that. The $48 ticket is a parking garage pass, then there are several VIP entrance tickets. Actual game tickets start at $114 last time I checked.

leidlein

December 2nd, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^

No, not an ad. LOL

Me and a friend looking to go, monitoring multiple sites. Finding that Ticket IQ prices are same as everyone else. Guessing people selling their tickets on multiple sites. I just appreciate that Ticket IQ gives me the final price without any headache. Very transparent IMO.

leidlein

December 2nd, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^

Agree Stubhub prices are about the same. I am guessing lots of fans selling tickets on multiple sites. Me and a friend are looking at going.

My issue with Stubhub is I have to toggle on a feature that shows all the fees. Why is that even an option in Stubhub? Just show everything all up front. Be transparent.

Sorry, rant over.

HenneManCrush

December 2nd, 2022 at 6:48 PM ^

Stubhub still tacks on fees at the very end. I checked both sites and even with the fees toggled on for Stubhub the tickets still got an additional $15ish in fees added when checking out. The two “$115 with fees included“ tickets were all of a sudden a $280 purchase with the additional $30 in service charges at the tail end. No thanks.

Went with TicketIQ and I will every time going forward.

WindyCityBlue

December 2nd, 2022 at 2:56 PM ^

Last year, I was so confident we'd win.  This year, for some reason I have some minor doubts.  Is it that Corum is out and Edwards is still hurt?  Is BPONE rearing its ugly head?  Is it that too much confidence often bites you in the ass?

lhglrkwg

December 2nd, 2022 at 6:49 PM ^

I think Iowa is so intensely boring and low variance that last year felt more secure than historically boom and bust Purdue. Like you can squint and imagine the dumbest game possible leading to a Purdue win. Much harder to picture a Petras/Padilla offense winning the Big Ten

kyle.aaronson

December 2nd, 2022 at 2:59 PM ^

It's worth mentioning that Purdue's best/most important offensive lineman (center Gus Hartwig) went down with a season-ending injury two weeks ago. I'll be curious to see if there's even more of a drop-off in their inside blocking game, as they've only played Northwestern and Indiana since he went out. The Boilermakers scoring 23 points seems like a lot to me (I know, I know, it's a bit), but I can't imagine they get more than 17.

JBLPSYCHED

December 2nd, 2022 at 3:04 PM ^

I'm surprised that no one, as far as I can tell, has said "this could be a trap game." Especially when someone almost always says that. I personally don't see Purdue keeping up with us, but Blake's absence + DE's broken thumb/cast make me a tad nervous about not being able to pave them.

I'm going to choose optimism, because when one has such a choice why not? I think our defense might bend a bit w/o Mike Morris but due to its pride with Mikey S's natty cheers in their ears I think we keep the Boilers at bay.

M 38, Purdue 14

MadMatt

December 2nd, 2022 at 4:55 PM ^

Well, there was the 2012 game when Nebraska (10-2) lost to Wisconsin (7-5, Ohio State and Penn State were ineligible for the postseason) 70-31. And, it wasn't even as "close" as the score indicates because the Badgers we're up 21-10 after one quarter, 42-10 at the half, and 63-17 after 3 quarters.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Big_Ten_Football_Championship_Game

swn

December 2nd, 2022 at 3:05 PM ^

"Mazi Smith gets a sack and the Michigan State internet implodes, leaving nothing but a single "whatabout" carved on a tree."

Love it. And I predict an impressive Will Johnson snatch on a well covered fade.

BOLEACH7

December 2nd, 2022 at 3:07 PM ^

Last year helps immensely imo … coming off a win vs. The enemy down south and playing a huge underdog… the kids are prepared… but I’m nervous lol … Meechigan 28 - 13 

PopeLando

December 2nd, 2022 at 4:08 PM ^

Yeah, this is what makes me less nervous. Brohm will empty the playbook at us, undoubtedly.

But don't forget that WE ran gadgets, reverses, and halfback passes at f'ing IOWA last year even after it became clear that our first points were the winning points.

Winning the B1G Championship is a big accomplishment, no matter who it's against. My guess is that Harbaugh, with a nation of recruits watching, wants to make Michigan football look fun.

Newton Gimmick

December 2nd, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^

I think the one part of the OSU game that made me breathe easier about this one (and beyond) was that 3rd quarter drive where OSU decided to sit back a little more and we slowly hammered them down the field a la 2021.  Gives me hope that if we get into one of those tight-games-at-half the O Line will still take over and slowcook the defense, even sans Corum.  And Minter has been suffocating in 2nd halves outside the Illinois game.