About Last Week

We spend the entire off-season talking about how much we miss college football. And then Week 1 arrives and provides us with… that. We crawled through the desert of the offseason, and we were met with a glass of tepid, brackish water and a full buffet of cauliflower. We ate and drank, of course, but c'mon. The entire slate featured one ranked-vs-ranked matchup and only a handful of games between major conference teams. Sure, there was entertainment (/glances over glasses at Rocky Top), but on the whole this was set up to be a mediocre week of football.  The Big Ten was the worst offender; B1G teams played only one Power-5 team, and that game was so bad that the winning team had 210 total yards.

In what I believe is a first in the time I've been word-piling this series, Michigan's opponents went undefeated on the week. The average margin was 33.6 points, and only two games were decided by fewer than three scores. And the reason is pretty simple: not a single team played a top-70 SP+ opponent. In short, we learned nothing.

So let's learn more about this nothing.

The Road Ahead

Army (1-0)

Last week: Beat Rice, 14-7

The guy on the end is technically an eligible receiver

Recap: Army won. And because 92% of all Army wins are by exactly seven points, it shouldn't be terribly surprising that they beat Rice by seven. Still, this wasn't a very encouraging outing for the Black Knights. Rice is projected to be one of the worst teams in the country, but through three quarters the score was tied at 7 and the Rice… Owls? I'm pretty sure?… had outgained and largely outplayed Army. Then Army went on a so-damn-Army drive, covering 96 yards in 18 plays and a brisk 9:21. And even then, after being subjected to the kind of soul-crushing drudgery that would make Dostoevsky scream, "geez, lighten up champ," Rice still managed to drive all the way to the Army 26 with a minute left before stalling out.

The biggest red flag is that Army couldn't get any movement with their offensive line. Excluding a 35-yard wide receiver reverse, they averaged under 3.6 yards per carry. And while that might not seem terrible compared to, say, some teams we will discuss later, Army relies on efficiency in its running game more than anything else, and a little drop-off is a huge deal. They also struggled to stop the run, surrendering more than 6 yards per carry.

This team is as frightening as: A knuckleball pitcher. Catch them on the right day or under the right conditions, and he's just throwing 60 mile-per-hour meatballs. Catch him on the wrong day, and he's gonna make you look ridiculous. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: The key to stopping Army's rushing attack is solid defensive tackle play, and Michigan's defensive tackle situation is… unclear?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Army's proooobably not as good at football as their record suggests. They are 22-5 since the start of 2017, and they have exactly one win over a Top-60 team.

When they play Michigan: Again, I'm on record as the pessimist here, but not because I think Army is better. It's because, unlike the Iowas or Michigan States of the world, playing Army doesn't let you pick your poison. You have to play assignment football, and they have no problem stabbing you repeatedly in the same spot with a rusty corkscrew if that's what it takes.

Next game: @ Michigan, noon, FOX (Michigan -22.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: more non-learnin']

Wisconsin (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at South Florida, 49-0

Recap: We know Jonathan Taylor still works. Whether the same can be said of Jack Coan remains an open question.

Coan was fine, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt with 2 TDs and no interceptions. But if you exclude the two screen passes that Jonathan Taylor took the distance, Coan did basically next to nothing downfield. It was plenty to take care of a South Florida team that displayed the discipline and focus of a pack of 6-year-olds when Baby Shark comes on.

The more encouraging sign was the defense; after dealing with, as the kids as, hella injuries in 2018, they completely shut South Florida down. They allowed only 2.8 yards per play, more than a yard per play better than their best game last year and approximately half of their overall per-play average from last year. However, this too comes with a little uncertainty, as USF dropped passes all afternoon, led by Eddie McDoom.

USF is bad, is what I'm saying.

This team is as frightening as: Annie Wilkes.

Extremely polite on the surface, but a terrible hostess. Maybe it's all the snow. Who knows. You just hope you catch her on a good day, or she'll absolutely smash you. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Jonathan Taylor is on pace for 52 touchdowns (56 if they make the Big Ten Championship Game).

Michigan can sleep soundly about: They only have one Jonathan Taylor.

When they play Michigan: Jump Around.

Next game: vs. CMU, 3:30, BTN (Wisconsin -35)

Rutgers (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat UMass, 48-21

Recap: This should be familiar. After all, Rutgers started off 2018 by beating 114th-best team in the country by 28 points. So a prudent man would advise caution about a 27-point win over the 125th-best team in the country. But prudent men don't get cannons.

Okay, the #RutgersQuickLaneBowlQuest needs to be a thing... pic.twitter.com/3mPnGiXg0g

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) August 31, 2019

You know what? You know what??? RUTGERS IS GOING TO be interesting to watch this week as they take on a real team and probably get thrashed en route to like three wins.

This team is as frightening as: Rutgers.  Fear Level = 2.5

Michigan should worry about: McLane Carter threw the ball well. Not "better than you would expect from a Rutgers quarterback," which is a polite way of saying "he didn't Bauserman any innocent bystanders in the face." His numbers were actually good; 340 yards at 11 yards per pass and 2 TDs.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Carter also threw three picks, and they were all bad picks. My previous assessment of Carter was "poor man's Alex Hornibrook," and that was borne out in this one; he saw tiiiiiiiiiny openings, and his eyes were bigger than his arm. The upside may be higher, but the potential for Sitkowski-like interception numbers is there as well.

When they play Michigan: Yes, we have to. I checked.

Next game: @ Iowa, noon, FS1 (Rutgers +20)

Iowa (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Miami (NTM), 38-14

Recap: This was similar to the Michigan/MTSU game; the score doesn't necessarily reflect the level of the thumping. Iowa only had nine real drives, and came away with five touchdowns, a field goal, a turnover on downs, a fumble, and a punt. Miami had ten drives and only really moved the ball twice. So while they only led 10-7 at the half, the game only remained close because it was played at a thoroughly Big Ten pace. The line wasn't overpowering the way you would expect against an opponent of this quality, but it was fine.

Of course, the big scare was Alaric Jackson leaving the game with a knee injury. This was particularly frightening because Jackson already lacks ankle flexion, so a bad knee could have been a complete deal-breaker. Fortunately for Iowa, it appears the injury will be a matter of a few weeks, and that he will likely be back in time for Michigan. 

This team is as frightening as: Tim Drevno doing your offensive line recruiting. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Despite Jim Harbaugh setting up a series of physical French Revolution-style barricades and besieging NCAA headquarters with trebuchets, Oliver Martin not only escaped Ann Arbor, but was also granted immediate eligibility by the NCAA. And he scored a touchdown in his first game.

Michigan can sleep soundly about:

Kinnick Iowa:

Road Iowa:    

When they play Michigan: *VOICEOVER* Just for this one game, we've secretly replaced Kirk Ferentz with That High School Coach Who Never Punts. Let's see if anyone notices.

Next game: vs. Rutgers, noon, FS1 (Iowa -20)

Illinois (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Akron, 42-3

Recap: Speaking of former Michigan players, Brandon Peters had 199 total yards and 4 total TDs (3 passing, 1 rushing) in his Illini debut. He made some throws, he missed some throws, but he generally looked like Illinois' best quarterback in quite some time. Illinois still has some issues along the offensive line, but the offense was creative and got the ball to their playmakers. The defense also had a good day (especially considering /gestures towards flaming wreckage of 2018), though the linebacking corps still seems to be a mess.

One disappointing note was that Poor Damn Mike Epstein, who suffered season-ending foot injuries midway through both 2017 and 2018, injured his knee Saturday and is out for the year. Someone go check on Poor Damn Mikey Dudek and be sure his ACLs are okay.

This team is as frightening as: The most competent, least stab-yourself-in-the-eyeballs offensive team in the state of Illinois, pro or college. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: The Singleton/Martin/Peters Reverse Revenge Tour would be way less fun than the original.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Illinois probably still doesn't have the depth of talent to threaten bowl-eligibility, let alone to make this a game.

When they play Michigan: This is a spot set up for a trap game, as Michigan is coming off of Iowa and heading into Penn State and Notre Dame. Fortunately, the trap is being defended by Illinois linebackers.

Next game: @ UConn, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN (Illinois -21)

Penn State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Idaho, 79-7

Recap: Idaho.

Idaho

This team is as frightening as: A boy band that doesn't dance. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: KJ Hamler remains speedy. Four catches for 115 yards and 2 TDs, a 16 yard carry, and a 25 yard punt return.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan is better than Idaho.

When they play Michigan: Don't run the Idaho defense.

Next game: vs. Buffalo, 7:30 p.m., FOX (Penn State -30)

Notre Dame (1-0)

Last week: Won at Louisville, 35-17

Recap: HOLY CRAP, a real-ish opponent.

Louisville isn't great (#82 in pre-season SP+). They probably aren't even good. But after an abominable finish to 2018, they appeared competent for approximately thirty minutes of football.  And then the fumbles started.

Louisville actually fumbled on five consecutive possessions, losing three (twice giving Notre Dame extremely short fields, and once at the ND 20 yard line), and killing a drive with the fourth. Until that point, Notre Dame struggled greatly to stop the run; Louisville was averaging over 10 yards per carry on 15 carries. They ended up averaging 6.8 yards per carry (excluding sacks), as Notre Dame's linebackers (and, surprisingly, the safeties) struggled to read and react.

Offensively, Ian Book struggled in the first half and displayed some serious happy feet, but he used them to his advantage when he bailed from the pocket; he finished with 81 yards on 14 carries. He was better throwing the ball in the second half, but overall the passing game was simply okay. Like Louisville, Notre Dame ran the ball extremely well early, to the point where it was a gift to the Cardinals whenever the Irish opted to throw.

This team is as frightening as: Realizing that the most hilarious Notre Dame Things were like a decade ago. Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: Ian Book's legs were a major difference, especially against man coverage.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I mean, Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke both beat these guys. How hard can it be?

When they play Michigan: Poor Don Criqui.

Next game: Bye

Maryland (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Howard, 79-0

Recap: Howard.

Oliver Otis Howard

This team is as frightening as: Google did not return any results for "King of the Howards." But it did remind me that Howard King, former Michigan PA announcer before Carl Grapentine, passed away a few years ago. And now I am sad. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Josh Jackson looked like a Big Ten-caliber starter.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan is even more better than Howard than they are better than Idaho.

When they play Michigan: We'll know a lot more about Mike Locksley's offense after they've played, you know, someone.

Next game: vs. Syracuse, noon, ESPN (Maryland -2)

Michigan State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Tulsa (YTT), 28-7

Recap: The reason this Opponent Watch is appearing on a Friday rather than the usual Thursday is that my computer ate a significant chunk of the first draft, including the Michigan State section. And I was piiiiiissed. Because I had written a glorious rant. A spittle-flecked diatribe. I don't think "screed" is too strong of a word. The thrust of it was to ask how Mark Dantonio thought his deck chair coaching carrousel maneuver would work. But as I sat down to try to recreate it, something struck me: it wasn't supposed to fix the offense. Because I remembered who Mark Dantonio is.

Dantonio didn't move coaches around because he thought he needed to do something. He did it because everyone ELSE thought he needed to do something. He made the perfunctory move that said he was taking it seriously. A hand-waiving half-acknowledgement that fans were unhappy. But deep down, he doesn't think the offense needs fixing. The players just need to 'get it.' They are given everything they should need: a jersey, a set of shoulder pads, a football, and a playbook. The rest is about testicular fortitude and execution. The problem is that the players haven't learned whatever lessons about GRRRRRR that will make them better. Private First Class Bachie gets it. Lance Corporal Willikes gets it. Maybe they can beat it into these offensive linemen.

Dantonio: "Football is a game of effort, toughness and knowing what to do. Half of our team figured that out."

— Chris Solari (@chrissolari) September 3, 2019

Dantonio's bunker mentality has been a perfect match for Michigan State for years. He eats breakfast 65 miles away from thousands of Wolverines who are trained to kill him. He runs his unit how he runs his unit. They don't want to hear about the changes in the game in the last decade, or in recruiting rankings, or in advanced stats. It was Sparty against the world, and for a few shining years, it worked. But the world changes.

Maybe they can #Spartandawgs themselves into getting better. But it hasn't happened yet. Michigan State put up 3.88 yards per play, on par with their worst (non-Michigan) performances from last year, and worse than ANY opponent Tulsa faced last year. The few offensive tweaks State displayed were minor, disjointed, ineffective, and generally not state-of-the-art. The line couldn't get any movement (<2.3 yards per carry from the running backs), and they struggled to keep Tulsa off of Lewerke. But as long as Dantonio has that fantastic defense, you're goddamn right he's going to continue to order all the Code Red-Zone-Jet-Sweeps he wants. In the meantime, the scowls will continue until morale improves.

This team is as frightening as: Yup.

Call it tempting fate if you want. Call it "fuel for the fire" or a fresh batch of DISRESPEKT that can be spun into that 95th yard of total offense. Sparty is Rock, and I challenge you to give me one good counterargument based on football and not on The Ghosts. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: The defense remains outstanding. Michigan State "allowed" -73 yards rushing. A huge chunk of that was on two yakety snaps, but they still held Tulsa's running backs to -1 yards on 13 carries and sacked Zach Smith (NTZS) six times.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Points win games, and MSU's offense generated 10 points on their own. Against Tulsa.

When they play Michigan: Showers, heavy at times. Wind NNW at 17, gusting to 30. Small earthquakes.

Next game: vs. Western Michigan, 7:30 p.m., BTN (MSU -16)

Indiana (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Ball State, 34-24

Recap: I will not spend this entire season making Penix jokes. I promise. This is serious business. So, no matter how hard it gets, I…

Dammit I'm gonna have a tough time keeping this up.

ANYWHO, since last we spoke, Michael Penix Jr. was named the starter over Peyton Ramsey, and instantly became Indiana's entire offense. He threw for 326 yards at 8.2 yards per attempt, and led Indiana with 67 yards rushing on 7 carries. Outside of those 393 total yards, the rest of the team accounted for just 81. Stevie Scott in particular had a rough day, totaling just 48 yards on 19 carries with a long of 7 yards. Penix is raw as a passer and threw a bad pick early, but he has a very strong arm and more mobility than any Indiana quarterback since Tre Roberson.

Indiana seemed destined for Rock status. Instead, they might actually be interesting. Good on you, Tom Allen. See? You CAN be an insufferable curmudgeon and still make changes to improve your football team.

This team is as frightening as: Dudes taking cheap shots and injuring your shoulder right before the biggest game of the year. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Indiana has freed itself of Mike DeBord.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Yeah but you can't just remove the Mike DeBord from the surface. That stuff seeps into the drywall.

When they play Michigan: Stupid. Michigan wins.

Next game: vs. Eastern Illinois, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Indiana -it's Eastern Illinois you degenerate)

Ohio State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat FAU, 45-21

Recap: Sorry we're already at like 3,000 words. Must've spend too much time on Maryland.

This team is as frightening as: What are you gonna do, stab me? Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Well,,,

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Justin Fields looked fine. He did not look like a Megazord.

When they play Michigan: Sorry, out of space.

Next game: vs. Cincinnati, noon, ABC (OSU -16)