when you avoid disaster [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Michigan 24, Army 21 (OT) Comment Count

Ace September 7th, 2019 at 4:38 PM

What did we say about scheduling a military academy?

Army, as expected, was misery. They played trench warfare, basketball before the shot clock, bash your face against the wall ass football. They ran the ball on damn near every play at a halting 3.3 yards per carry; this worked well enough because they converted all three of their fourth-down tries. There were very few scenarios in which this game wasn't at least going to be profoundly annoying.

Michigan conspired to make it a near-catastrophe. They lost three first-half fumbles, two of which led directly to Army's pair of regulation touchdowns. The other came one play after Josh Metellus was incorrectly whistled down while picking up an Army fumble en route to the end zone. Shea Patterson was scattershot as a thrower and limited as a runner, seemingly ordered not to keep on a read-option no matter how much Army overplayed the running back. The deployment of Dylan McCaffrey was again confusing and ineffective. Zach Charbonnet churned out 100 yards and all three Michigan touchdowns on 33 carries; he also had no chance on a pair of fourth-quarter fourth downs that were dead to rights.


hnnnnnnnnnnngh [Campredon]

So there we sat, collective butts clenched, as Army's freshman kicker attempted a 50-yarder as time expired to put this game on the ultimate upset highlight reel. Cole Talley's boot slipped just wide to the right, and Michigan had new—if not wholly earned—life.

After the two teams traded touchdowns in the first overtime, it appeared the Wolverines would give that gift right back to the Black Knights. Patterson missed an open Nico Collins in the end zone before throwing two incompletions Tarik Black's way, leaving Jake Moody to salvage three points and giving Army the chance to win with a touchdown.

Then the defense, which had fought tooth and nail against the triple option all afternoon, saved the day. Aidan Hutchinson ripped through the line for a tackle for loss that set up third and long, not a specialty of Army's. As Kelvin Hopkins Jr. dropped back to pass for only the fifth time on the afternoon, Kwity Paye flew around the edge and met Hutchinson at the quarterback. Hopkins couldn't hang onto the ball and Paye eventually pounced on it, bringing a sudden end to a miserable slog.

Let's never do this again.

[Hit THE JUMP for the box score]

Comments

rice4114

September 7th, 2019 at 8:13 PM ^

WE just referenced 3 games in which Army was content to keep it a one score game (Oklahoma UM and Rice)  We shouldve done A FUCK TON more to make sure that didnt happen but after Army’s last 20 games you have to say this is a lot of their doing as well. They are just superbly coached. First thing they figured out is 3.3X4>10. Our coaches couldnt figure out that 17>14. We were outsmarted and outcoached. Two gutty first year players and a stubborn defense eeked out a shitshow win for us. 

kurpit

September 7th, 2019 at 6:19 PM ^

Michigan turned the ball over on fumbles or downs on 7 possessions today. Oklahoma scored on all but 2 possessions in their game against Army. Michigan is not Oklahoma. Michigan had every opportunity to take control of this game but never did.

befuggled

September 7th, 2019 at 6:40 PM ^

That's not actually true (see the play-by-play here). I'm  not entirely sure the play-by-play is accurate, but Oklahoma scored touchdowns on their first three possessions of the game and then did nothing else. They punted, threw an interception, lost the ball on downs and missed a field goal (which the ESPN play-by-play calls lost on downs for some reason). They had their opportunities to put the game away and didn't.

Oklahoma basically scored on one more possession in regulation than Michigan did.

UMinSF

September 7th, 2019 at 7:21 PM ^

This. Today's game was virtually a replica of the Oklahoma/Army game. 

In fact, Army outgained Oklahoma, and Okie only turned the ball over twice. 

To my mind, this indicates 2 things:

This Army team can cause fits, and both Michigan and Oklahoma are capable of a stinker.

 

 

StirredNotShaken

September 7th, 2019 at 7:53 PM ^

Exactly. The optimist fans are going to make excuses for this game the more time passes. "It's a service academy". That's nonsense. There is nothing about Army's defense that should have caused us to play as sloppy and uninspiring as we did. The pessimist fans will look at it as a sure sign of doom the rest of the season. That would be an overreaction for now. Let's see how they perform in Madison. I think the balanced way to look at this is that if we don't play significantly better the rest of the year we are going to have a hard time winning 7 games. Nothing I saw today gives me confidence we can score more than 14 points against Wisconsin. 

rice4114

September 7th, 2019 at 8:22 PM ^

In a bizarro world where we are picked into the playoff because our offense our defense saves our skins. The offense was hot junk. 

1. Stop running up the gut from shotgun when you need a yard. The entire defense is in a hot route of FLY TO THE MIDDLE

2. Put a short yardage package together with all the old favorites. 2 yards or less TEs FB and grind em down.

3. Shea is regressing or our offensive calling is regressing someone help me figure out if its one, the other, or both

4. We put zero pressure on the two smallest defenses we play all year. It doesnt get easier. Yikes

5. Field a damn punt

6. Throw slants on press and comebacks on loose coverage. We HAVE NFL WrS quit throwing passes with a 8% chance of being completed. Make the game boring by finding the weakness and riding it til they stop it. GD offensive coord think they are auditioning for most exciting. Win the game with execution. Get the god damn yards as easy as you can. Fades into a 6 inch window 25 yards downfield. Ugh

 

 

1VaBlue1

September 7th, 2019 at 9:31 PM ^

I cannot agree enough.  Offense nearly blew this game with crap play calling and shitty execution.  If Patterson can't, or won't, keep, then replace him.  Why do we seem to actively avoid seeking out Collins and Black?  When was the last time a ball was pitched out to a RB already half way to the corner?  When was the last time a RB was an active - and real - part of the pass game that doesn't include blocking?  Every hand off was 5 yards deep and destined for the A or B gap.  I mean, we played Army's game - run the ball and inhale the sweet smell of that cloud of rubber dust!

I'm pretty much convinced that Harbaugh will never open up this offense and use the tools he's recruited.  The handcuffs are real.  Another in a long line of coaches that close things up when the going gets tough.

EastCoast_Wolv…

September 8th, 2019 at 12:33 AM ^

Agreed with all of these. On the good side-- Michigan average almost 7 yards/play in the first half and outgained Army by almost 100 yards. There was a lot to like about this new offense, and if they hadn't turned the ball over 3 times they would have gone into halftime this week and last week with impressive leads.

On the bad side-- they seem to abandon all creativity in the second half, even when the game is close. The play-calling in the second half was as bad as I've seen. I am so confused as to 1) why Shea won't keep it on plays where the DE is left alone and clearly crashing, 2) why they insisted on running on 80% of first downs in the second half when the balanced approach was working in the first half, and 3) why they STILL don't have more quick attacking pass plays to beat blitzes, off-coverage, WHATEVER. Throw a damn arm punt up to Nico Collins.

Toe Meets Leather

September 9th, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^

Regarding 1 & 2:  I absolutely agree they need to have the 2 TE guaranteed 1 yard in the back pocket.  I think they would have used VanSumeren in those situations more if he hadn't fumbled early in the game.  I don't think they trusted him and were reluctant to give it back to him when Army was going for strips on every play.

3:  Shea is worrisome.  By no means is he playing poorly, but he missed a few big passes, was not making good reads, and fumbled.

4:  My bigger concern is that the smallest defense we play all year was getting A LOT of pressure on our pass plays. For an O-Line that is supposed to be one of the best in the conference, that is concerning.

6:  It baffles me why they didn't throw the ball to Nico Collins so many more times.  Whether it was single coverage, corner playing 10-yards off or otherwise, those are high success rate plays for easy chunks of yardage.

Hopefully they can iron out the kinks in the 2 weeks off.  Also, I couldn't stop thinking off Billingsly from Friday Night Lights (movie) having the ball duct taped to him hands after his fumble.

Harlans Haze

September 8th, 2019 at 9:45 PM ^

Pardon my ignorance, but who is Biggs? Just from first look, I thought Anthony looked pretty good filling in for Ross and maybe I'm not seeing things correctly, but it seems as though Hudson and Glasgow are already on the field together, quite a bit, already. I thought biggest news out of the game was that Uche appears to have replaced Gill and I thought he looked fantastic.

antonio_sass

September 7th, 2019 at 4:43 PM ^

I agree that Shea seemed seemingly ordered to never pull on those read plays, but if it was because of an injury, why did they call a designed run play for him in the 4th quarter? 

This O gameplan made about as much sense as our D gameplan against OSU. 

rc90

September 7th, 2019 at 5:28 PM ^

Yes, I heard that stat on Fox too, but consider the circumstances here. Patterson wasn't fumbling in the old scheme, and then after another Patterson fumble, Michigan regressed to the old scheme in the middle of the game today. Whether they or shouldn't change game plans isn't my point, but coaches do have to make adjustments, and I suspect that's what we just saw here. It makes a lot more sense to me than the commonly proposed theory that Patterson is too hurt to run the offense, but he stays in the game in a much more limited role, even though McCaffery has been deemed viable enough to occasionally enter the game at odd and (sometimes) pre-planned times.

turtleboy

September 7th, 2019 at 6:26 PM ^

Last year we weren't running out the tackles we are this year, to date. Both of Sheas fumbles today came in the pocket, under pressure. Third fumble was when the coaches picked the worst possible time to sub in the Fullback, yet when he was actually needed later in the game on several downs he wasn't in.

ERdocLSA2004

September 7th, 2019 at 9:50 PM ^

Shea has a lot of great skills and if the pocket was always perfect, I’m sure he would be fine.  He continues to wait too long to move or throw.  He has no feel for the pocket and wrongly assumes he can sit back there and wait for the perfect option to open up.  I fear he might be too passive of a quarterback for this system.

TIMMMAAY

September 8th, 2019 at 11:06 AM ^

We did not "regress to the old scheme" yesterday, no matter how many people keep saying it, doesn't make it true. We did get more conservative from early third Q to late 4th, but that's very different from "regressed to the old scheme". 

So many people that don't understand what they're seeing, all have to loudly voice their opinions on things. It's lazy, and a bad look. 

We played like absolute shit. Sloppy, careless football, combined with a couple tough breaks and head scratching play calling in the second half. Shea is clearly injured, and I'd say it's pretty clear that coaches don't yet trust McCaffrey for whatever reason. 

We'll know a lot more about what we have in two weeks. Until then, this place is going to be a miserable corner to spend time. 

vanarbor

September 8th, 2019 at 12:01 AM ^

Yes, but barely. It's like comparing a guy batting .270 to a guy batting .273. 

The whole fumbling issue with Shea is blown so out of proportion. He's NOT going to fumble twice a game for the rest of his career like that. It's fine to say something like "man Shea's fumble cost us" etc., but to use his fumbles as a reference for future performance is so shortsighted, and I believe that's exactly what the coaches did today by running everything the entire second half. Shea has not been an above average fumbler in his career, and so you can really chalk many of his fumbles up to pure chance.

His first fumble against MTSU, if the defender takes an angle 1 degree different Shea probably wouldn't have fumbled. The same can be said for the first fumble today (although this one I think was more avoidable). The second fumble was off the blindside and caught Shea right about to enter his throwing motion. A small change in randomness in some of these events and Shea would have no fumbles. This could all be said vice versa.

Again, fumbles are very much random. If your defense allows a team to march down the field 5 times in a half, that's probably not random and your defense sucks. If your quarterback throws 3 interceptions in consecutive games, that's probably not random and your quarterback sucks. If your quarterback fumbles 5 times in 2 games like Shea, I will bet you a lot of money he's not gonna sustain a pace close to that in the coming games. Not because coaches tell him to stop fumbling, not because he's now more aware, but because of regression to the mean.

I'm much more worried about the playcalling and Shea missing wide open receivers than his fumbles.