It's been a couple weeks since our last Michigan Hockey column, so it's time to check in on the squad. The good news? The team went 3-0-1 since last time. The bad news? We're now rapidly approaching the Olympics, when Michigan will officially lose three of its top four forwards and one of its top defensemen for at least four games. In this piece we'll do a quick recap, look at February and the Olympic implications, and then feel out the national picture. 

Taking care of business

The last two weekends have not included the prettiest games of all time, but the Wolverines have mostly done their job. They swept an inferior Penn State team and then took 4/6 points from the good Gophers last weekend. Sure, you would've preferred a regulation sweep of Minnesota, but you won the weekend and made up two points on a top team in the league, which is important. Hard to have many complaints about the end results. 

That said, the games weren't necessarily the dominant showings we had seen when Michigan walloped UMass in early January. Against Penn State, Michigan jumped out to a 3-0 lead and let it turn into a close shave one-goal victory, followed by the Saturday game where they trailed 3-1 before rallying to win. Both were worse efforts than either of the two games in Happy Valley in November. Against Minnesota, Michigan led 1-0 and played well before another undisciplined mistake did them in in an OT loss, followed by a game that saw the Wolverines get massively outshot but Erik Portillo won the goalie battle and gave Michigan the win. 

When Brian asked me about why this is happening on the podcast, I didn't have much of a coherent answer, because I don't really know what to make of it, frankly. Even as someone who analyzes hockey schematically and strategically, there's nothing I can really point to specifically that is the problem. Sure, individual goals against have their specific issues, but outside of the team taking at least one five minute major per weekend, I don't have a broad problem to directly diagnose. Rather, it just seems like the team's effort level rises and then falls often during the course of a game, or over a weekend. They have stretches where it's gangbusters and Michigan is buzzing and out-chancing the opponent, and then they fall into a slump where they're on their heels. Still, the talent comes through often and even when they're not dominant on the ice, they normally have a real chance to win because of the firepower on the team. We saw that Saturday in Minneapolis. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: takes and broader picture stuff]

Hi there, Mark Estapa [James Coller]

HockeyBullets  

The line blender keeps spinning. Last time I wrote this column, we were marveling at the success of the Brisson-Beniers-Johnson mega-line. Now, we're back to the Mel Pearson Line Blender experience. I guess Mel didn't like the ability of the rest of the three lines to generate offense consistently when the big guns were all together. As a result, much the way that no matter what shakeups they try, the Toronto Maple Leafs naturally gravitate back to Matthews-Marner and Tavares-Nylander, Michigan seems to naturally gravitate back to Beniers-Johnson and Bordeleau-Brisson. This time, there was a twist on it, with Mark Estapa joining Bordeleau and Brisson. I dig it. Estapa offers a physical presence but one with a touch of skill, a puck retriever who can go into the corners in a way that Bordeleau can't and you don't really want Brisson to. The freshman Estapa seems like an intriguing piece to watch over his four years at Michigan, a hustle guy but one who might have higher upside than say, Nick Granowicz. 

Hello, Ethan Edwards. Edwards still only has four points on the season, but we're starting to see more and more of him each game. The skillset is there, a Luke Hughes-lite with good skating ability who can transport the puck up ice, and some of the offense is beginning to seep through: 

Knock, Knock. Who's there? Brendan Brisson pic.twitter.com/3kC4Rbr9ww

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) January 23, 2022

Look at that feed! Both the vision to see it from the blue line (Keaton Pehrson ain't seeing that), and then the tools to execute it. What I like about Edwards though is the bite in his game. Most smallish (Edwards is listed at 5'11", 185) puck movers lack the willingness or muscle to engage physically, but Edwards likes to hit. He's taken six penalties, but has managed to avoid the dreaded five minute major, which has been contagious across Michigan's roster this season, showing that he is hitting with some degree of caution. His defense hasn't been terrible either, despite times when he's been paired with guys like Jack Summers, who have their own defensive problems. Edwards is in line for more ice time when Owen Power is gone in February, and I want to see more of him. 

Our King [James Coller]

Erik Portillo is proving his mettle. Portillo started the year very strong and then had a bit of a tough stretch when (due to his fault or not) a lot of pucks were going in the net. He posted a .866 SV% over a five game conference stretch against Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Minnesota to close out the first half where things looked a tad wobbly. Since he was able to refresh for a couple weeks over Christmas, the Gargantuan From Gothenburg (I'm coining that nickname) has posted a .952 SV%. Some of that has to do with improved team defense from the squad in front of him, but Portillo has been really good too. Saving 44 and 39 shots in two of the last three games, in addition to helping Michigan earn a scoreless tie against Michigan Tech in a game they didn't have the guts to duck, is enough evidence for that. Portillo's SV% for the year is now up to .924, just a tick behind Mann's .930 from last year, which was something I discussed in my pre-season stupid predictions. 

Portillo heating up right now feels pretty notable because Michigan is going to have to lean heavily on him during the Olympics. The most common way that a not-that-great team wins above their caliber in hockey is by having a save-everything goalie who vacuums up shots. Just ask the 2003 Mighty Ducks, the 1994-2001 Buffalo Sabres, or the current New York Rangers. Now, I think Michigan during the Olympics will still be a pretty good team (more on that later), but having Portillo stay in this gear for those two weekends would go a long way towards helping Michigan win the conference regular season title. Also, a consistently great Portillo would be awfully nice to have in a single elimination tournament like say, the BTT or the NCAAs.  

We've got a major problem on our hands. We discussed the five minute major thing in a column back in the fall, where I roasted the NCAA over the inconsistency in its application. I maintain my critiques expressed in that piece, but that's not the primary reason why Michigan continues to get what feels like one major penalty per game. In many cases, they are just stupid and reckless plays. Like Jacob Truscott's backbreaking major on Friday against Minnesota: 

Truscott's major pic.twitter.com/Ok592YeqdC

— CJ Fogler AKA Perc70 #BlackLivesMatter (@cjzero) January 22, 2022

If you are Truscott.... why? The Minnesota player is not moving at a high rate of speed and has his head down, facing the boards from the moment Truscott begins to skate into him until the end. In other words, choosing to crosscheck in that situation had a 100% probability in ending in a major given the way the rule has been applied all year long. This was not a fuzzy, through-the-looking-glass call that I've railed against in the past. The fault is on Truscott alone here. Especially with two minutes to go in a tied game. What the hell are you doing, man? 

Too many of Michigan's five minute majors have been like this in recent weeks: stupid plays that this team has got to change. If I'm Mel, I have to consider scratching someone like a Nolan Moyle if this happens again because if we're charting all the ways that Michigan fails to meet its lofty goals in the postseason, the top two highest probability options are 1.) getting goalie'd and 2.) losing because you took a five minute major that a team scores twice on. In a single elimination hockey tournament, there is no margin for error, and this is an easy fix. Just don't hit a guy when their back is to you and their face is against the boards! Ever! 

Multiple Olympians in this photo [James Coller]

Olympics & the B1G 

So it's official: Michigan loses Owen Power, Brendan Brisson, Matty Beniers, and Kent Johnson to the 2022 Beijing Olympics. That's unfortunate. Playing against men in a big tournament like that may make them better hockey players, but it's an awfully big risk for reasons we outlined in a previous edition of this column. They will depart for China after this upcoming weekend series against Wisconsin, and if all goes according to plan, will miss two weekends: home/neutral vs. MSU and home vs. OSU. That latter one hurts because the Buckeyes are now tied with Michigan atop the conference and Ohio State will lose no one to the Olympics, but that's the price you pay for having this caliber of player on your team. 

Minnesota loses Brock Faber, Ben Meyers, and Matthew Knies, which comes on the heels of them losing G Jack LaFontaine to the NHL. Having watched Justen Close this past weekend, I don't have a ton of belief that the Gophers are going to make a run down the stretch with that shorthanded roster. Close now has an .897 SV% on the year and has lost two starts since becoming the starter in which his team massively out-shot the opponent yet lost because he surrendered 3+ goals on <20 shots. Not great! They also have to play all three weekends during the Olympics (Michigan is spared by the bye week coming in that stretch), so they could really suffer. 

Here are the updated B1G standings after this past weekend: 

The B1G has really turned into two tiers of teams, a top four and a bottom three. I think PSU is better than that record gives them credit for, but they have squandered a lot of chances in the league. A surge late in the season could put them onto the NCAA Tournament bubble, but they're already in dire straits when it comes to even hosting a BTT series. MSU and Wisconsin are just plain bad. 

Michigan draws Wisconsin this weekend and needs to hammer the Badgers to make up for a loss at home in regulation back in October, a game you'd really like to have back in hindsight. Doing so would put you at 39 points. OSU heads into Happy Valley this weekend (let's go Lions!) and ND hosts Minnesota (hope for a split). You may or may not be in sole possession of first at that point depending on those other games, but that's the most you can hope for as the Olympics begin. It's not a big (or any) lead in terms of first, but it would give you cushion when it comes to finishing 2nd or 3rd in the conference and thus drawing an easier first round series at home. 

Buckeyes vs. Wolverines for the crown? [JD Scott]

As for the Olympics, I'm not of the mindset that this portends instant doom for the Wolverines, but it definitely makes the path more difficult. The good news is that MSU and OSU are probably the two teams I'd most want to see *talent-wise* when you're down the big guns. Neither are going to test you athletically and they don't boast a ton of NHL talent, which means that Nick Granowicz, who will have to play during the Olympics, won't be out of place going up against those teams. Expect physical, grinding series with less play off the rush and more play off the cycle. Puck retrievals and being able to get it out of your defensive zone will be pivotal. And of course, so will goalie play. Erik Portillo ascending to God Mode would be very nice for those two weekends. 

Michigan also will be at home or at a neutral site for all four games, which guarantees that the ice sheets that the games will be played on will not be horrific slush like it was in Columbus. The home crowd helps, too, even if Michigan has played better on the road than at home this season. While I would have preferred to have the NHL go to the Olympics and Owen Power be at Michigan (because it would be better hockey in both Beijing and Ann Arbor), this isn't a death sentence to Michigan's regular season B1G hopes. Players like Granowicz, Philippe LaPointe, Ethan Edwards, Thomas Bordeleau, and Mackie Samoskevich will all need to step up, something their talent level and/or past play suggests they're capable of doing. They were recruited to this program for a reason. It'll soon be on their shoulders to help raise a banner in Yost. 

The National Picture 

We haven't discussed the national chase all that much, but now we have a reason to: Michigan is now 1st in PairWise rank (PWR), the formula used to select the 16 teams into the NCAA Tournament field. They aren't first by all that much, just a nose ahead of Minnesota State, but it is significant. Right now, the Wolverines are in very good position to snare a #1 seed in the tournament, but the fight to get 1st overall will probably go down to the wire. Here's the current PWR table, sanded down slightly to be more readable for the layperson: 

[NOTE: For this chart, I counted OT wins/losses as ties, because PairWise considers them essentially ties (an OTW is .55 of a win and an OTL is .45 of a win)]

Something big should jump out about this table. Specifically, the rankings have a heavy western slant. College hockey's three western conferences (B1G, NCHC, CCHA) account for eleven of the top thirteen teams in PWR right now. Why? Because those three conferences have crushed the two power eastern conferences (HockeyEast and ECAC) in non-conference play: 

Summing up West versus East domination in men’s hockey this season. Hockey East is 5-14-2 against the three western conferences. ECAC is 8-15-4. https://t.co/6FARjvNnsy

— Nate Wells (@gopherstate) January 20, 2022

So, for a team like Michigan, who is sitting at the top of one of those western conferences, it's an extra added bonus. It should be no surprise then that the top three teams in PWR are the top teams in each of the three western conferences. Non-conference play is an additional boost for Michigan, who loaded up their non-con in the offseason and has since been rewarded by snagging a bunch of wins among those games. They hold wins over #2 Minnesota State, #7 UMass (x2), #8 Duluth, and a pair of OT games against #4 WMU and #9 Tech (plus one regulation loss to WMU). A 4-1-2 record against top ten teams in the non-conference will help you be at the top of the seed rank when you're leading the B1G, as opposed to 10th, where OSU is (the Buckeyes played a pitiful non-conference schedule). 

Coming soon to an NCAA Tournament near you [James Coller]

At this juncture, Michigan is nearly a lock to make the tourney. Dispatching Wisconsin would basically seal a tourney berth even if the 1% scenario that Michigan loses their final six regular season games were to come to fruition. The resume is so robust, they've banked so many wins, and at that point the remaining schedule would be strong enough to keep them firmly in the tourney. Again, that's very unlikely. Just doing alright in those final six games would still likely keep Michigan in the 1-seed conversation. PWR picks the sixteen teams (Autobids factored in), but the committee assigns locations/seeds/matchups. It's not unreasonable to think the committee could grade Michigan a bit more favorably for tourney purposes if they drop a game or two during the Olympics by factoring in context and keep them on the one line even if they fall to fifth or sixth in PWR. 

The B1G also looks strong as a potential four team league. They put four in the field in 2018 and then four again (stunningly) last year, although two did not play due to COVID-19 (not discussing that any further because it's still too depressing), so this would equal that high watermark. It's not set in stone, as OSU/Minnesota/ND are all in that 10-12 range where a bad weekend or two can knock you out. As I've stated previously, Minnesota seems the most likely of that group to fall out due to all the personnel problems they're having to deal with. Still, the strong western bias factors will keep them afloat to some degree even if they waver. I doubt the B1G gets two #1 seeds again like last year, but another year with four in the field will go a long way towards reaffirming the conference as a legitimate superpower league.