Resources: My charting, UW game notes (from Mich, Wisconsin's aren't up yet), UW roster, CFBstats, Last Year

Give or take some injuries, Wisconsin is living their best life: 110 points scored, zero ceded. While the relevance of this to the Big Ten season could be overstated, the consistency of Wisconsin's running game cannot. Hoping the four new starters on the OL would be a bunch of confused puppies is like hoping the guy who comes after Jonathan Taylor ends the streak of three decades without a generic RB. He is the best of them.

The big shift in expectations is in the air. Alex "Ol' Tight Windows" Hornibrook took off to be the FSU backup. Former backup Jack Coan won the job over #3 composite pro-style freshman Graham Mertz in a battle that never actually got that hot. Mathlete notes Coan had a success rate of 8/39 in competitive situations last year. The receivers they returned were variations on a 5'11"/180 guy who plays outside like a slot. Even with the competition caveat, nobody predicted this passing game would be at 9.3 YPA (counting 4 sacks), 5 TDs, 0 INTs and past the 600 yard mark at this point.

The one big thing that's changed since mid-August is they got back WR Quintez Cephus. He's got 169 yards, two TDs, a 69% catch rate despite being the ONE GUY you have to cover, and 13 yards per target. Even that doesn't explain why Jack Coan was the most lethal Wisconsin quarterback CMU has faced since freshman John Navarre.

The film: Wisconsin has played two games against mediocre opponents. USF was first but they're slightly less of a tire fire than CMU and it happens to be available. Also it was less of a hamblasting.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

The guy I was most disappointed with was TE Jake Ferguson, Barry Alvarez's grandson, who was PFF's top returning TE in the Big Ten. His UFR-style charting had him +4.5/-9 in the run game, and he wasn't even the tight end asked to make the really hard blocks. That was TE Zander Neuville, who ended his career a few weeks ago, adding to an Angry God situation that's also claimed Luke Benzschawel and Gabe Lloyd, not to mention Kyle Penniston's grad transfer to Rutgers that all parties now regret. They're listing a walk-on redshirt freshman they were in the process of converting from receiver as the backup. After that it's extra tackles.

Lord knows there's plenty in that pool, several of whom have been playing a lot already. Logan Bruss missed the CMU game, but was back on the depth chart as the starting right tackle… and on the questionable list this week. Backup RT David Moorman was pretty good in the CMU game and had an excellent game as an OT in TE's clothing against USF. I don't get the rush; Bruss was +4.5/-7 in my charting; Moorman had a pair of +2s. The other guy in the running, Tyler Beach, had a bad pass pro whiff and was quickly gone.

Senior LG Jason Erdmann (+2/-2, –2 protection), who has appeared in 43 games as the "tight end" stuffed into a jersey with a number in the 90s, has been holding a slim lead over former top-150 prospect LG Kayden Lyles (+2/-1, –3 pass pro), who's understandably behind after playing defensive end all last year. Erdmann is a big, stiff piece of farm equipment and little more; Lyles is strong and athletic but popped up often for his limited snaps for allowing pressure up the gut. RG Josh Seltzner (+2.3/-3) is squat and strong but not very athletic; when he makes contact guys move, but he let some quicker players shoot by him. A +0.5 he picked up for tripping then managing to still harass a LB is emblematic of his downfield play. LT Cole Van Lanen (+9/-2, –3 protection) and C Tyler Biadasz (+10.5/-2) are discussed in the dangerman section.

Didn't see much from WR AJ Taylor in this one; slot receiver Kendric Pryor might be a better version of AJ as a slot-sized guy with some wiggle but not much separation. New fullbacks John Chenal and Mason Stokke don't stick out nearly as much as their predecessors did. We cheer when 3rd down back Garret Groshek enters because he's not Jonathan Taylor, but as a receiver out of the backfield and pass blocker he's an asset. It's too early to know what they have in RB Nakia Watson since he was mostly getting garbage time escorts to the second level.

[after THE JUMP: Gaps! Gaps! Gaps! Gaps! Gaps! Gaps!]

--------------------------------

Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Old Spice. They've got a few nods to modernity, but Wisconsinball rolls on:

Formation						Personnel		Playcall
Down Type	Gun	Pistol	I-Form	Bone		Avg WRs		Pass	PA	RPO	Run
Standard	14	6	16	9		2.3		7	7	3	27
Passing	17	2	-	-		3.0		14	-	-	4
Total	48%	13%	25%	14%		2.5		34%	11%	5%	50%

As they did last year, Wisconsin likes to run an old fashioned flexbone. This is not the Army bone; it's more like an Ace formation with H-backs on both sides. Those "H-backs" could be a fullback, a tight end, or a 6'7"/340 guy hastily shuffed into the nose tackle's extra shirt. The idea: more gaps.

Ten holes.

This is the antithesis of #SpeedInSpace. The Wisconsin offense wants lots of gaps for Taylor to pick from. This forces a gap defense to commit more defenders across the line of scrimmage. Then they'll add more gaps with fullbacks and pullers and more pullers. If Taylor ever scoots through, there aren't enough defenders left to clean up, and there's an unpossible ball of knives roaming free.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Power. Specifically Slow Power, with a lot of Power GT.

Wisconsin has used a lot of inside and outside zone during the meatball period, but with a lot of turnover on the line this year it appears they've swung back to more gap running. Power is the base play but they like to screw around with it more than run it. Sometimes they add tight ends and pull the center to move the whole operation over a gap. In the first half of this game they started pulling the backside tackle as the lead blocker and used the H back to hold the backside edge:

[Quick video note: These clips are all on gfycat, which has a lot of easy features I'm guessing not many of you have been using. They also come with sound and are in high-def, but you often have to flip those on in the player.

If you're reading this on a desktop, use your left arrow (slow down) and right arrow (speed up) and spacebar (pause/unpause) so you don't have to catch everything going on in real time.]

Standard Power (1st panel below) is about blocking down on the playside, and bringing multiple lead blockers through the gap, traditionally a pulling guard and a fullback. The "Trap" version in the clip above (and middle panel below) simply exchanges the fullback's block for another puller. In the second half Wisconsin went back to the standard Power game, but from their Bone setup (3rd panel) it still felt like that tackle pull.

Doing this slows down the play, but that plays to Wisconsin's strengths, literally. The longer the OL get to shove, the more they're liable to blow puny defenders downfield, and with a patient back behind them and so few extra defenders around who aren't otherwise engaged with another gap, there's no great rush to punch a hole. Bring your nine-man boxes; they're just more people to block, and the more blocking in tight spaces going on the more Wisconsin is in their wheelhouse.

This behavior then invites defenders to force the issue by guessing who's going to block them and running at that guy to make sure the block takes place where the offense doesn't want it. The games above just make sure the defenders are having a hard time figuring out who exactly IS supposed to block them. There are ten dudes in a position to do so.

I caught three RPOs. They were all this one:

Hurry it up or grind it out? Grind it out.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): 2 and he knows it; Coan won't even attempt to dodge a guy in the backfield. His nine attempts for –14 yards this year and 20 attempts for –33 yards are virtually all sacks. They have a few read plays in the offense for Coan because you at least need the threat of free yards if you run any shotgun on standard downs, but when the alternative is JONATHAN FRERCKIN TAYLOR you tell that DE#4 to crash all day and say thanks.

Frames Janklin Factor: So…note the time above. Last year's blowout secretly could have been a lot closer, but whenever Michigan got them in 3rd and 3 around midfield, rather than, you know, runingn Jonathan Taylor behind his row of tractors and hoping to average 1.5 yards per carry, Chryst put in his 3rd down back Garrett Groshek, passed for no yards, then punted.

This here drive started on the Wisconsin 20 with 5:05 left to go. We join our heroes six plays later. They've just gotten a first down on the USF 43 with 2:17 and two timeouts remaining.

• [Stand around for 25 seconds after clock starts]
• 1st and 10 (1:52 remaining) A Bash play (a jet sweep counter to the direction of pulling action), doesn't fool anyone because who's going to be overreacting to power pulls during a 2-minute drill, doesn't get out of bounds, loses a yard.
  [38 seconds run off]
• 2nd and 11 (1:14) Flood concept, crossing TE is wide open because a LB fell down, goes down at the hash for a gain of 8.
  [33 seconds run off]
• 3rd and 3 (0:41) Shotgun outside zone handoff to Groshek gets incredible blocking, gains 8 yards, stops clock for 1st down.
  [6 more seconds]
• 1st and 10 (0:26) Zone read keeper gets 4 yards (above)
  [Uses timeout]
• 2nd and 6 (0:20) on the 24, Hooks gets Cephus open in the middle for a nice pitch and catch.
  [Lets clock run 4 seconds before clocking it]
  [Snap violation by Biadasz]
  [Have to use their last timeout to prevent runoff]
• 1st and Goal from 12 (0:09), normal 11 personnel splits out 5-wide and they pass it to Taylor at the 5 yard line with a linebacker there to tackle on the catch and a safety nearby.

The good news about this screenshot is I'm pretty sure Chryst didn't learn his lesson. The bad news is that's because Taylor scored anyway.

Dangerman:

You name it, RB Jonathan Taylor has it. Taylor has elite vision. Taylor has elite acceleration. Taylor has elite power. Taylor has elite patience. Taylor has 30 clips in my gfycat account, largely thanks to the linkfest he inspired the first time I watched him.

How does a true freshman get a shield? If you know your Wisconsin running back history, I think Jonathan Taylor runs a lot like Anthony Davis, but will also charge through the line with the violence of Ron Dayne. He runs behind his pads like Terrell Fletcher, downshifts with the patience of P.J. Hill, has the one-cut vision of Corey Clement, keeps his balance like John Clay, can juke in a phonebooth like Michael Bennett, always falls forward like James White, stiff arms fools like Montee Ball, and has the instincts and athleticism to create his own gap, jet through it, and de-pant a safety that should immediately bring to mind one Melvin Gordon.

The knock on Taylor in previous years is he was so unhelpful as a receiver that Wisconsin was pulling him for Groshek on 3rd downs. They still do that for reasons surpassing the understanding of modern synapsids, but they don't have to. You saw the catch and run above. Taylor has even turned himself into an asset as a pass blocker. There are no more weaknesses to have, no more reason for a respite, no veil between us and the wheel of fire. The only worse possible development would be if two weeks of watching Army gave Chryst fourth down ideas.

That's not the only shield on this team. Center Tyler Biadasz is bad-ass. For PFF's favorite center in the country he's just fine with taking a dive at a guy's legs if there's no other way to get a block, but his combos are just sick. At first I wondered how #70 could get downfield so fast on this play; when I slowed it down I finally saw it was the arm of Biadasz controlling that DT so well that no more attention from the guy who lined up playside was needed.

This happens often with Biadasz: there's a wall of humanity, then suddenly the back is hurdling into the secondary because Biadasz did a thing. Often it's just getting really low and getting a drive block started two seconds after the snap. Pick a Taylor link if you need more.

I gave a star to Cole Van Lanen because he's a hoss in the run game—PFF had him their #1 run blocker last year and a fair pass blocker. The run blocking…can confirm. I used this clip earlier to show the design of the offense but it works because Van Lanen blew the DT down to where the WLB got stuck. This block is a double with #78 Erdmann at first, then Erdmann suddenly has nobody in front of him anymore.

In the screen TD I clipped for Taylor's acceleration Van Lanen reacted to a CB trying to clip him by happily landing on the poor kid. In pass pro…not great. After a few pressures Wisconsin was giving CVL—not the new starter at right tackle—the benefit of TE chips and RB assistance. As much as he's played at this point it's weird to see him still making high school mistakes:

Course the other guy in this clip made a pretty good play. WR Quintez Cephus is all the way back after a 15-month legal battle that ultimately saw him acquitted and reinstated. Before that, he was very good at football. Now: still very good at football.

Cephus twice shook loose from coverage in this game only to be overthrown by Coan. He's big and burly enough to function as a quasi-TE in that bone package, and like Biadasz I constantly wanted to clip little things from Cephus like this second effort to win a crack block:

Wisconsin moves him around to get better matchups. If Hill, Ambry and Gray shut this guy down, there aren't much tougher challenges on the schedule. Provided, that is, that Coan can get the ball there.

HenneChart:

UW vs USF	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
Jack Coan	4	10(2)	-		5(1)	2		-	1	3	1		67%

Coan earned PFF's Big Ten QB of the week against CMU but in this one he was pretty pedestrian, Quintez Cephus twice downfield. The difference was how he handled pressure; when he got it in this game his accuracy went to hell, and this young Wisconsin OL is more likely than most of those you're familiar with to dorf a protection. However Coan stood in several times against CMU. The second sideline fade TD to Cephus in this long highlight reel has a DT in Coan's face.

Wisconsin's plan against USF was to get Coan a lot of easy completions and they mostly succeeded. He looked far more comfortable in week 2, yes, even when the pocket broke down.

OVERVIEW:

They're pretty much Wisconsin, albeit an edition where the big burly blocky boys are younger and more mistake-prone. Sometimes the new fullback doesn't see the right gap and they get swallowed. Sometimes a lineman doesn't notice a guy shooting inside of him until it's too late, and then he does the Wisconsin thing where he tackles the guy into a pile of humanity.

Their tendency to use 6th OL and whatnot is responsible for some weird experience numbers among the new OL:

This ranges from Cole Van Lanen, who played extensively the last two years while waiting for Edwards and Dieter to clear out, to Jason Erdmann, who's played three snaps 40 times. This leads to substantial differences in apparent awareness. When it's mashing time it won't matter because those guys are blocking down on Michigan's selection of small, injured, or freshman DTs. Past Wisconsin games had a few good stones from an Aubrey Solomon or Bryan Mone. It would be really nice to get a breakout from Mazi Smith this week.

This kind of football is also not a great fit for Khaleke Hudson, who's going to have to play a lot more like a traditional read-and-react linebacker than the heat sinking missile we want him to be. I wonder if Michigan would consider playing him more like a 1990s strong safety and using Uche as a regular 4-3 over LB. On the other hand this is the kind of game for a Kwity Paye to shine. Nothing gums up Wisconsin's running game like a dynamic end who'll stick a big OT on the line of scrimmage, cutting off all gaps beyond that as well as the place they wanted to go in the first place.

I don't think they've yet had to rely on Coan and I wonder what happens when they do, both because a lot of these OL have been a bit shaky in pass protection so far. They also make it very clear when it's passing time, when the fullbacks hit the bench and out comes the shotgun 3-wide.

I agree with the J.Uche idea.

Getting there, as always, will be the issue. The DTs will have safer (not safe) ankles, but will be dealing with about 40 pounds more than they've been so far. Biadasz is going to infuriate. Jonathan Taylor isn't going down in the backfield. Badgers gonna badger.