tray jackson
SPONSOR NOTE: Downloaded the Autograph App yet? You should get on that, using mgoblog as your referral code, since doing things like going to the game, listening to our podcast, reading this site, or F5'ing Sam's message board earns you fan points. Starting in January they're going to be releasing some custom Michigan jackets they designed with Ebbets Field Flannels as rewards for purchase in the app.
Any MGo-user who downloads the app from us AND earns Silver Status in the app will get a chance to pre-claim the jacket at an exclusive member rate.
-----------------------
With roughly a third of the regular season over for Michigan, this is a good time for a macro level look in an effort to understand where the Wolverines are and where things might be going as we head into the thick of conference play.
Real
Perimeter Shotmaking. The Wolverines are connecting on 37.1% of their triples as a team, good for #50 nationally per Torvik. While the raw percentage is certainly indicative of the team's shooting prowess to a certain extent, a deeper dive is necessary to gain a full understanding.
Per Synergy, Michigan is putting up 1.09pps on catch and shoot jumpers, landing in the 77th percentile across the nation. While that number is certainly good, it's not quite elite territory. A closer look reveals the Wolverines may actually be underperforming a bit on these looks. The team is at 1.10pps/51st percentile on 67 unguarded catch and shoot attempts. On the other hand, 1.09pps/82nd percentile on 128 catch and shoot attempts that are guarded. It's easy to see where Michigan might experience some positive regression with respect to the unguarded attempts.
Numbers aside, the distribution is very encouraging in terms of sustainability + projection. The Wolverines have four players shooting volume triples on percentages that you want to see. McDaniel/Burnett/Williams/Nkamhoua are all above 35% from distance while taking at least three triples per game. Throw in a high-efficiency/low-volume shooter like Tschetter and Michigan is very likely to have at least a few guys stretching the floor per game, as we have 4-5 viable options at different positions to ensure there aren't many games where the well is completely dry.
In addition to the raw percentage and distribution, the variety of shot types also lend credence to legitimate shooting prowess. We're not talking stationary corner triples exclusively here. We have difficult shotmakers in the backcourt and Dug McDaniel is leading the charge.
To quantify, Dug is 83rd percentile in off-the-dribble jumpers at 1.07pps. A sample size of 45 shots isn't necessarily big, but it is large enough to say that he's not a guy you can go under ballscreens against without penalty.
[AFTER THE JUMP we get a bit more real and not so real]
Let's take a look under the hood to examine what went into the blowout.
Defensive Rebounding
I differ from most when assessing the primary defensive issues that have plagued Michigan early this season. The lack of timely off-ball rotations and lapses in transition defense certainly loom large in the defensive woes, but not at the top of the list in my opinion.
The Wolverines have been horrid in terms of finishing possessions, checking in with the #224 DReb rate per Torvik. To put this in perspective, Michigan's Dreb rate has been below 70 four games this season. That is absolutely mindblowing considering the Wolverines play two bigs for large portions of games.
In the win against Iowa, the Wolverines came up with 78.8% of the available defensive rebounds and it paid massive dividends in aiding the defense.
Will Tschetter was a massive part of this victory, pulling down 35.8% of the available defensive rebounds during his time on the floor. Let's take a look at some of his best work in the clip below.
After beating Sandfort to the spot, watch Will take young Payton for a ride from the left side of the paint before dropping him off outside the paint on the right side. The box-out was so good that Tschetter was barely forced to jump in order to secure the rebound. That's premium cheddar right there.
Now let's take a look at the guards getting into the action. First up, Nimari Burnett.
After Tarris forces a wild fadeaway, Nkamhoua does a fairly good job of boxing-out Ladji Dembele, but to no avail. Dembele comes up with not one, but two, offensive rebounds in the same possession.
Look at the :18 mark in the clip. Burnett is forced to switch on Dembele after the screen. Iowa spots this and hits him with the entry pass on the mismatch. But Nimari does a good job using his length to contest the jumphook. He nearly finishes the possession himself, as he left the ground quicker than Dembele on the rebound attempt. A scrum ensues and Michigan is able to regain possession. These sort of efforts are critical for team defense.
[AFTER THE JUMP more Cheese, a face-up five and the bench mob]
Michigan is 2-3 versus high-major opponents this season after a heartbreaking loss to a depleted Oregon team on the road. Following the loss to Texas Tech, the Wolverines had more than a week off to work out the kinks defensively and I was very curious to see how things looked on that end of the court. In short, things did not look good.
That much is fairly obvious to even the most casual Michigan hoops fan, but the question is why? Let's take a look under the hood to better understand the root issues the team is facing.
Sleepwalking Bigs
It certainly wasn't the only issue, but the bigs falling asleep defensively was definitely among the more prominent problems. Early in the game and Tarris Reed is matched up one-one-one against Jermaine Couisnard in a late-clock scenario. Reed is generally a very good perimeter defender when switched against guards. Terrance Williams is also in help position at the nail area.
Nkamhoua completely leaves Kwame Evans to camp out in the paint..........before Couisnard even takes a dribble. Tarris easily beats Couisnard to the spot and forces a kickout. But Kwame Evans has relocated and is now a viable release valve for Couisnard as Olivier is nowhere to be found. Easy triple for Evans.
This was a recurring issue for for Nkamhoua. A few minutes later TWill/Olivier easily execute a switch as Jadrian Tracey gets the ball on the left wing. Williams is in perfect position and shading him baseline with Tschetter in help position on the weakside. Again, Nkamhoua completely vacates Couisnard on the wing to provide unnecessary help and gives Oregon a viable release valve.
Couisnard isn't able to connect, but the process is bad.
[AFTER THE JUMP some issues with miscommunication, rebounding and the small guards]
15