torvik slicing is what we do

Mike Smith Starts Putting It Together

increasingly dangerous [Campredon]

As opposing defenses have placed a greater emphasis on stopping Hunter Dickinson, the court has opened up for other Wolverines to step forward. The primary beneficiary has been point guard Mike Smith, who's increasing his shot attempts from beyond the arc while slicing his previously problematic turnover numbers in half.

After removing the season-opening cupcakes, the statistical comparison between early-season Smith and the version we've seen since the Minnesota loss is stark. Everything has stayed level except for missing a couple more two-pointers (almost certainly a sample size issue), attempting an extra three-pointer per 100 possessions (given his numbers, great!), and trading off an assist or two per game to cut out an equal number of turnovers, which has been a very worthwhile swap. The result is an 11-point jump in O-Rating, per Bart Torvik:

The increased attention on Dickinson has helped Smith. The more important factor, though, is his improved comfort level against the size and speed of Big Ten defenses. A lot of his turnovers earlier in the year were passes that didn't make it through the crowd.

You can see the game slowing down for him. The little hesitation move on this pick-and-roll drive forces the defense to commit before Smith makes the pass, which allows him time to make the correct read to find the right angle to get the ball through clean:

Over the full season, Smith is posting strong numbers as a pick-and-roll ballhandler when you include his passes. He’s slightly above-average as a scorer but his passing puts him in the 85th percentile overall as a P&R ballhandler anyway. If he keeps the turnovers down, the efficiency of these plays will take a substantial leap, too:

Smith has done a nice job of spreading his passes between kickouts to shooters, dumpoffs to the roll man, and quick-hitters to the occasional cutter. Finding the big man on the roll is generally the most efficient way to end a ball screen for any team—save for hitting cutters, because when that happens the other team usually fell asleep, and that happens far less often—and Michigan is no exception with Hunter Dickinson usually on the receiving end of those plays.

Only two Big Ten players, D’Mitrik Trice and Marcus Carr, have hit the roll man more than the 44 times Smith’s posted this season and neither crack a point per possession on those plays while Smith’s in elite territory at 1.23:

Smith has increasingly gone to the bounce pass, which turns his height (or lack thereof) into an asset instead of a detriment as he threads the needle between taller defenders:

His skip passes are getting through more often, too.

[Hit THE JUMP for Smith's P&R scoring and lethal transition work, plus updates on the BTT, an injury to Ayo Dosonmu, and more.]

The terrifying world of Torvik without preseason projections. You can drop the preseason projections out of Torvik by advancing the start date of your sample one day.

You should not do this, the stat persons say. Kenpom once asserted that his projections were more accurate if you left a little bit of preseason expectation in indefinitely, but people were very cross about this and the benefit was small so he didn't bother. We're not even to January, so the expectations carry an appropriately large amount of weight, especially because teams have played far fewer games than they usually do.

But let's do it anyway, because my face hasn't melted in at least a couple days. The Big Ten in this universe:

• #5 Wisconsin
• #8 Illinois
• #9 Iowa

Okay we're fine

• #15 Northwestern
• #21 Rutgers

tentacles emerge from the floor

• #25 Michigan
• #26 Indiana
• #27 Penn State

tentacles grow flowers

• #37 Purdue
• #46 Minnesota
• #50 Ohio State
• #51 Maryland

pink elephants emerge from the flowers

• #86 Michigan State
• #91 Nebraska

pink elephants explode, covering room in viscera, viscera sings "Sittin' on the Dock of the Bay."

It's not like the ranking systems are particularly enamored with MSU even when you leave expectations in. They're still second-to last on Torvik, but much closer to Maryland at #51 than Nebraska. Northwestern also gets penalized about the same amount—~30 spots—but they drop from fourth to 11th in the league as a result.

I sort of buy the projections' skepticism about Northwestern because they've experienced a lot of luck defending three-pointers. They give up a fair amount of them (181st) and opponents are hitting 27%. There are teams that can maintain opposition three-point shooing at low levels but they're usually dedicated zones or teams with incredible rim protection. Northwestern is neither.

As Ace detailed yesterday with an assist from Hoop Vision, there are reasons to believe that Northwestern's offensive turnaround is sustainable. They've mitigated much of their playmaking deficiency by using Pete Nance as a point-center in a five-out offense, a role that Nance is well-suited to. There is likely a reality check coming once teams scout the NW offense better, but Nance has proven to be a handful on the perimeter and should continue being one.

MSU… well, Ace just talked about them too but that was before last night's debacle.

[After the JUMP: a brief history of disaster factories]

Current Standings (As Of Feb. 25th)

As we so boldly predicted when some projections had 12 Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament field, a couple of the teams towards the bottom are fading down the stretch. Minnesota needs a miraculous run to make the tourney, while Purdue has slid from being in the field last week to the eighth team out in the current Bracket Matrix. While Indiana has a stronger foothold after a 2-0 week, they travel to Purdue and Illinois this week—they could easily slide back into perilous territory.

On the other end of things, The Athletic's Eamonn Brennan has moved Michigan and Ohio State into tournament lock territory, joining Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, and Iowa.

Home vs. road has been so important in the Big Ten—home teams have won 69.9% of their games, second-highest of any conference—that I wanted to take a look at which teams actually perform well when outside the comfy confines of their own arena.

Splitsville: Home vs. Neutral/Road

Isaiah Livers knows when a coach is out of his element [Campredon]

As usual, shoutout to Bart Torvik for providing customizable rankings. The goal here was to see the difference in overall ranking between each team's performance in away or neutral games and their home games. Since these offensive/defensive efficiencies and the resulting BARTHAG (Torvik's overall ranking) are adjusted for venue, there shouldn't necessarily be a split between a team's home and neutral/road numbers.

That's not the case in the Big Ten.

Only four teams are better in away/neutral games than at home even when adjusted for venue. Meanwhile, five teams drop over 40 spots in the overall rankings when they leave home. This is ordered by how well teams play away from home:

While this exercise put a dent in my Penn State skepticism, it reinforced the feeling that Michigan is primed for a run in at least one postseason tournament—the offense holds relatively steady and defense has actually been better away from Crisler. Is it a coincidence that these two have a couple of the weaker home crowds in the Big Ten? Reader, I'll leave that up to you.

Northwestern and Nebraska are the only other teams that improve when not at home. While the Huskers stay relatively level, the splits for the Wildcats are remarkable: while their defense remains exactly the same in adjusted efficiency, the offense is nearly ten full points per 100 possessions better away from Welsh-Ryan. This hasn't resulted in wins, so I wonder if this is mostly the effect of a dead home crowd making it difficult to stay in games mentally when the team is losing. Then again, you'd think that'd impact the defense as much if not more than the offense.

Anyway, let's talk teams that matter. Michigan State, to the surprise of nobody reading this site, doesn't do as well when not at the Breslin Center, but they're still a top-25 team away from home. The five that experience massive dropoffs: Ohio State (#1 at home to #45 on the road), Wisconsin (#13 to #61), Rutgers (#16 to #65), Purdue (#7 to #72), and Indiana (#29 to #85). In every case save one, the offense goes into a shell when not at home; the exception is Rutgers, which plays maniacal defense at home and merely decent defense away from the RAC.

Those five are teams you want to catch either at home down the stretch or in the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan gets some good and some bad this week; they play Wisconsin at home on Thursday before going to Ohio State, the #1 home team in the country(!), on Sunday.

Notable Games This Week

Tonight: Iowa at Michigan State (7 pm, ESPN 2)
Wednesday: Rutgers at Penn State (7, ESPN)
Thursday: Wisconsin at Michigan (7, ESPN2), Indiana at Purdue (7, FS1)
Saturday: Penn State at Iowa (noon, BTN), Michigan State at Maryland (8, ESPN)
Sunday: Indiana at Illinois (2, BTN), Michigan at Ohio State (4, CBS), Minnesota at Wisconsin (6:30, BTN)

[Hit THE JUMP for stock up/down and a WBB update, including a clean sweep of State]