nick patterson

Starting last year I began tracking how the recruiting rankings of Michigan commits and top targets moved, since that sometimes can be as informative as the rankings themselves.

Previously: July 2019 offense. Feb 2019 offense/defense, July 2018

Let's go over the rules again:

1. Rankings Have Gravity. Over the course of a cycle everybody moves down at a normal pace as various other players are moved up. If you're top 20 at the beginning of your junior year, if you get to the end of your senior year in the top 150 you've really stood pat. The further down you started the less I care about downward movement, because nothing really changed about the sites' opinions on that guy—just their opinions on other guys.

2. Every Site Has Their Own Ratings. I'll give you my composite numbers  on a 5-star scale and the raw numbers in the charts. For the others:

3. Moves Are Always Contextual. You have to consider what site moved a guy, what box they have him in, and when they saw him or rated him last. ESPN for example will tend to look at a guy when they need to, fire off a rating, and then never go back. Rivals will often hold a guy in the high 3-star range that everyone else loves until the guy gets to a Rivals camp. 24/7 does the same.

On with the show! I've included senior highlights of each if they're available.

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RB Blake Corum

Committed: 6/27/2019. Current ☆ average: 4.39 (up from 4.16)

What it means: Corum got a big boost over the course of his senior year from every site, and where he has ended up depended on where he started. ESPN's was only less dramatic because they evaluated him late last summer when he was already on the rise. 24/7 was taking a wait-'n-see approach, dropping him about 50 spots in their late February re-rank then leaving him there through an Under Armour camp that belonged to Rivals. Since then Corum was named the Player of the Year in Maryland as St. Francis rolled over a schedule of some of the best high school teams in the country, led by Corum. USA Today even wondered at the rankings as they rose:

Blake Corum might be underrated

It’s not just his huge linemen or play calling. Running back Blake Corum has now put up 200 total yards against two of the best defenses in the country in IMG and Mater Dei.

Corum is widely regarded as one of the best running backs in the country. He is a Michigan commit, is ranked by the 247Sports Composite as the No. 13 at his position and No. 143 in the country.

But might those rankings be too low? It’s tough to imagine 12 backs leading an offense better than this player. Could there really be 142 players better?

Rivals' Adam Friedman did a film on Corum in their "Rapid Riser" segment.

#RivalsRankingsWeek: Rapid Riser

RB Blake Corum jumped 136 spots from the #Rivals250 to the #Rivals100! The #Michigan commit now sits at No. 67.

️ @RivalsFriedman breaks down @blake_corum's rapid rise.

1⃣0⃣0⃣ https://t.co/1VGbLcV0eb
2⃣5⃣0⃣ https://t.co/hsWGNtxlRn pic.twitter.com/hlOglRCXEd

— Rivals (@Rivals) December 5, 2019

I think there's little doubt the sites are following the national headlines on this one. He's having one of the best senior seasons in the country against the best competition.

Outlook: They're the relative skeptic so here's how 247's evaluation leads off:

Concern about being physically maxed out….Needs to show he can run between tackles consistently in college. Size to touch ball 15-plus times a game a concern. Multi-year high-level contributor at Top 15 program. Could develop into a Day Three NFL draft pick.

Dohn has continued beating this "I don't know if he can be Northwestern's offense all by himself" drum even after answering the part about running inside:

He ran for tough yards in the middle, and he was able to get to the edge a few times. He was patient and let the plays develop, and he picked up key yardage to get first downs. Whether he can touch the ball 20-plus times a game in college remains a question, but he can carry the load for St. Frances.

I find this dubious. There is certainly a kind of recruit to watch out for who has an early growth spurt, puts up crazy numbers as a high school underclassman, then falls back to the pack as the rest of his class hits puberty too (examples: Ricardo Miller, Marvin Robinson, a zillion offensive linemen who were already 300 as sophomores). There's also the kind of high school dynamo who'll never be big enough to play college football, but that's more of a concern for 5'8"/165 guys; Corum is 30 pounds heavier than that. That take however doesn't seem likely to change unless Corum's body type changes.

There's always the worry with a running back who was used to a great offensive line—both tackles are going to Power 5 schools, Mazzccua is in this post, and the other guard is going to Kent State—that he's just getting escorted to the second level (see Ty Isaac, Derrick Green) but if you watch the highlights that doesn't seem to be the case.

[The rest AFTER THE JUMP]

Michigan added their fifth commitment of the 2020 class on Tuesday in Cornell Wheeler, and they didn’t have to go far to find him. The West Bloomfield LB, no. 466 in the composite ranking, had his fair share of ink spilled upon committing. 247’s Allen Trieu has a pair of scouting reports, one from Tyrice Grice, Wheeler’s defensive coordinator, and one from his observations from 2017 through camp season. Grice:

“Cornell's going to make sure he's a sideline to sideline player. He works hard on his athleticism because he compares himself to Lance [Dixon] which is a tough one to compare yourself to. He will fit in Michigan's defense. His instincts help him get to the ball so fast and he makes good reads and that's something we teach is understanding reads and he is good at that. It took him a while to learn it, but he worked with me and he got it and he is having a dynamic year. The mental aspect, Cornell has done well at, and Michigan runs the same defense as us and gave us everything we needed to run their defense and Coach Brown loves that.”

Trieu issued his player comparison as part of his scouting report:

“I can see some Desmond Morgan there too where, Desmond was not a combine type guy, but was smart, instinctive and worked his way into being productive. That is what I see with Cornell. And the few times that I have seen him in 7-on-7, he made a good amount of plays just by being in the right places as well.”

The Wolverine’s Brandon Brown also wrote up a player comparison in which he likened Wheeler’s game to that of James Ross.

Both have been billed as a tad sawed off while being extremely instinctive and violent when they arrive at ball carriers. Neither of them are very long but both have decent range because they run well and dissect plays in a hurry. Both also show a knack for blitzing because of how they anticipate and understand schemes and tells from the offense.

Brown also checked in with Rivals analyst Josh Helmholdt, and a picture of a tenacious, slightly undersized heat-seeking missile is starting to emerge. Helmholdt:

"His size and stature scream gap-filling thumper, but then he went out and nearly won position MVP honors at the Rivals 3 Stripe Camp in Chicago, an event that highlights a linebacker's ability to play in space. Wheeler is effective going forward, backward or sideline-to-sideline. He hits with bad intentions, but also has the explosiveness to blitz or cut off the alley."

Helmholdt also notes that his offer list would have seen the addition of national powers if he had decided to take his recruitment into the spring, but that Michigan pounced on Wheeler’s willingness to finish the recruiting process early.

Brown also spoke with former Michigan WR and current West Bloomfield head coach Ron Bellamy, who called Wheeler “the best middle linebacker in the state of Michigan.”

[Hit THE JUMP for more]

2020 TX TE Nick Patterson (yes that Patterson) has also pulled the trigger:

2020 San Antonio (Tex.) Christian 3-star tight end Nick Patterson (@Nick_Patt80 )... younger brother of @SheaPatterson_1, commits to #Michigan. "It just felt like home (STORY) https://t.co/P2CvVwcB2b pic.twitter.com/VDNY0uxOzk

— Sam Webb (@SamWebb77) September 10, 2018

Patterson is a mid-three star but obviously it's pretty early for 2020 guys. Listed at 6'3", 215, he's a long way away from college weight and unless that changes over the next year he'll probably stick in the mid-three star area. And he might be more of an ATH in any case:

The versatile youngster has lined up at tight end, wide receiver, slot, and h-back on offense, and has also spent time on the other side of the ball at defensive end. In last Friday's game versus Bandera (Tex.) Patterson hauled in six catches for 90 yards before the game was called at halftime due to inclement weather. His career Michigan will likely begin at tight end or H-back, but Harbaugh & company have made clear their intentions to remain flexible with their plan for using him.

Patterson is Michigan's fourth 2020 commit, joining IL DT Denver Warren, OH WR Kalil Branham, and MI CB Andre Seldon.