liam souliere

Previously: Defensemen, Incoming forwards/goaltending, returning forwards, season preview HockeyCast

Over the past week and a half I've been slowly rolling out my Michigan Hockey Season preview. Over the first three installments we were breaking down the roster, and today we come to the final piece of the puzzle. In this article we will instead be focusing on the rest of the conference, as well as Michigan's schedule more broadly. Then, at the end, we will make a few predictions, and wrap up the preview. Let's start by analyzing the B1G, which I have broken down into tiers. Well, two tiers really. It's a pretty open conference this year:

Tier I: Tenuous favorites - Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State

Michigan

Not going to go in depth because that's what the other preview articles were supposed to do. 

Minnesota 

Last season: 1st in B1G, 29-10-1 (17-3-4), lost in National Title Game  

Key Additions: Oliver Moore, Sam Rinzel, Jimmy Clark, Max Rud, Nick Michel 

Key Losses: Logan Cooley, Matthew Knies, Jackson LaCombe, Brock Faber, Ryan Johnson

The Gophers are a case study in the volume of roster losses vs. the production of losses. Minnesota didn't lose that many players, towards the bottom of teams in the conference in sheer number of players that left the squad. However, the players they lost were massive impact pieces and you would not be wrong in arguing that Minnesota lost five of their six best players in the offseason. Which matters more, and who can fill those big shoes, will determine the trajectory of Minnesota's season. 

I generally lean more towards the side of the spectrum that argues that it's who you lost more than how many players you lost. Minnesota's losses are enormous, starting up at forward. Last season their team was built around the fact that they had arguably the best line in college hockey, Logan Cooley centering Matthew Knies and Jimmy Snuggerud. Those three players combined to score ~38% of the team's goals and ~33% of the team's points. This season they lose Cooley, who changed his mind about playing in an NHL/College Hockey arena in Arizona and signed with the Coyotes (already scored a sick goal!), and Matthew Knies, who signed with the Maple Leafs in the spring. Those two players both were finalists for the Hobey Baker, with Cooley for me being the only player in college hockey who had a case for the award besides Adam Fantilli. He was ridiculously good and Knies was so essential in making that line work via his puck recovery skills, dominance around the net, and defensive detail. 

[Bill Rapai]

Losing players of that caliber is not easy, even if Jimmy Snuggerud returns. I like Snuggerud quite a bit, but I felt that he was the third piece of that line. If he can replicate his 21 goals and 50 points with new linemates, more power to him and I will be impressed. But I need to see it. In terms of recruits, Minnesota slides in Oliver Moore, 1st round pick of Chicago, at center. I like Moore, don't get me wrong, but he's not quite the same caliber of prospect as Logan Cooley. 7th round pick Jimmy Clark should help the depth scoring but what Minnesota needs is for the rest of the roster to step up and replace the firepower they lost. Better seasons from the likes of Connor Kurth and Brody Lamb, in addition to Bryce Brodzinski pouring in 19 goals again, would definitely help. 

The other element that made Minnesota so great last season was their four horsemen on defense, upperclassmen defensemen who gobbled tough minutes and controlled the game, tilting the ice towards Minnesota on every shift. Three of those four are now gone, with only Mike Koster returning. Sam Rinzel, 1st round pick, will help, but he cannot replace the seniority and the experience of those departed defenders. This is still a very talented blue line, Rinzel, Ryan Chesley, Luke Mittelstadt, but those three players are all underclassmen. There will be a drop-off in the manner in which the Gophers can dominate the games and protect Justen Close, a goalie who has thrived in the system but has had his wobbles against higher quality shots (and shooters). 

I do expect this Minnesota team to be good, which is why I have them in the top group. They still have a ton of talent, they still have Bob Motzko as their coach, and enough players return to guarantee some level of continuity. But I don't anticipate this to be anywhere near as dominant of a team, too much talent leaving the roster and crucially, too much experience. While Minnesota has been such a consistent team night-in and night-out over the last two seasons, I foresee a bit more of a spottier team, one with the choppiness that Michigan typically has that comes with a more freshman/sophomore heavy roster. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the other five teams + predictions]